How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting timing.  I just concluded a long and very detailed conversation with someone that has very deep knowledge of this war.  I mentioned your theory that Rybar is a Prigozhin asset and he paused, processed it, and said that something that's bothered him for a long time now makes sense.  Let's see if you agree.

We have this instance of Rybar shamelessly distorting truth to support Wagner, yet there was a feud between Rybar and GreyZone about Kherson.  Rybar saying that Russia's has things well under control and GreyZone mocking him as a propagandist.  This something you've run into?

He was trying to make sense of the apparent split personalities of both.  But now it makes sense to him, and to me I think.  Rybar and GreyZone are working together to discredit the Russian MoD to benefit Putin in his whatever power games the two are engaging in.  In this case Rybar is building up the expectations of Russian defenses to enhance GreyZone's messaging that the MoD is incompetent.

What do you think?

Steve

Possibly but it's hard to parse with any high degree of confidence. We can't really know because a lot of the players in Russian power politics don't really know themselves. They are groping towards safety or power or simply to stay afloat (and Prigozhin maybe all three) and the alliances they are making along the way are often provisional at best.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

Looks like the satellites are starting maneuver on their own. Stay away from under windows in the Donbas.

Oh my

I just checked in with ISW's Sept 18 report and they led with this story.  Long (by their standards) writeup that I think people should take the time to read.  Several theories were advanced, though surprisingly the one I think Billindc (and I as well) jumped to is only mentioned at the end as an afterthought.  Which is that DPR and LPR did this ON THEIR OWN to try and compel Putin to commit forces to defend their northern flank.

The only sign we have that Putin might be in favor of this is that one of his top propagandists, Margarita Simonyan, went to Telegram in support of the concept:

Quote

An immediate referendum is the Crimean scenario, and it's all-in. Today a referendum, tomorrow - recognition as part of the Russian Federation, the day after tomorrow - strikes on the territory of Russia become a full-fledged war between Ukraine and NATO with Russia, untying Russia's hands in all respects. If I understand correctly, now referendums will be demanded not only in the LPR.

https://t.me/margaritasimonyan/12077

Messaging mistakes are definitely fairly common within Russia's propaganda, but if Putin wanted absolutely nothing to do with the referendum this would be an odd thing to have his mouthpiece spout off.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Possibly but it's hard to parse with any high degree of confidence. We can't really know because a lot of the players in Russian power politics don't really know themselves. They are groping towards safety or power or simply to stay afloat (and Prigozhin maybe all three) and the alliances they are making along the way are often provisional at best.

Yes, they turn on each other with regularity.  Which is why things are so difficult to read.  It's like when a prominent Russian "falls out a window".  There's usually more than one plausible party behind the incident for more than one plausible reason.  It's not even clear that the person did something him/herself to bring about the "tragic accident".  Could have been, but it could also been the death was a message for someone else.  Which means the best we can do is winnow the myriad of possibilities down to the one or two that are most plausible given the limited information we have.

Makes my head hurt sometimes

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The Tsars, Lenin and Stalin (and Kim-il-Sung) all lived in a different era where only the very tiniest sliver of their subjects had any access to Western communications or ideas.

This.  "Once they've seen the city, it's difficult to get them back onto the farm" is an old saying that encapsulates what happens when someone's eyes have been open to other, and better, alternatives.  Well, at least in the early industrial revolution thinking before people did more than just see the city

As you rightly pointed out, those other populations Galeev speaks of didn't have the same information Russians have today.  In fact, it's very clear that as bad as things are within Russian society, they are not willing to accept total enslavement by the Tzar.  There's ample evidence of this all over the place.  Even if the people aren't strong and organized enough to prevent a more oppressive environment in the short term, it won't last for the long term.  I have absolutely no doubts about it.  Of course pushing back against a more repressive Putin or a worse successor isn't likely to produce good governance out of the Kremlin any time soon, but it will prevent a North Korean scenario.

Steve

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting timing.  I just concluded a long and very detailed conversation with someone that has very deep knowledge of this war.  I mentioned your theory that Rybar is a Prigozhin asset and he paused, processed it, and said that something that's bothered him for a long time now makes sense.  Let's see if you agree.

We have this instance of Rybar shamelessly distorting truth to support Wagner, yet there was a feud between Rybar and GreyZone about Kherson.  Rybar saying that Russia's has things well under control and GreyZone mocking him as a propagandist.  This something you've run into?

He was trying to make sense of the apparent split personalities of both.  But now it makes sense to him, and to me I think.  Rybar and GreyZone are working together to discredit the Russian MoD to benefit Putin in his whatever power games the two are engaging in.  In this case Rybar is building up the expectations of Russian defenses to enhance GreyZone's messaging that the MoD is incompetent.

What do you think?

Steve

I have had a theory for months that most of what the Russians are doing in Ukraine has to do with factional fighting in Moscow regarding A) Who lost Ukraine? B ) Who replaces Putin? Obviously losing the fight about question A negatively effects your faction in B. I think this is the only conceivable explanation for Wagner's suicidal obsession with taking Bahkmut, and the MOD's irrational commitment to Kherson. They aren't about winning the war, they are about being able to blame someone else for losing it.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Unless you buy (and I know you don't) the  primal spittle about Russians being orcs, congenitally incapable of living in peace with real humans, I don't see this being actionable.

The Tsars, Lenin and Stalin (and Kim-il-Sung) all lived in a different era where only the very tiniest sliver of their subjects had any access to Western communications or ideas.

It was therefore possible to divide, isolate and terrorise them in the millions. They quickly found it more convenient to shut up, not ask questions and drink away their sorrows. While those habits are still sadly deeply deeply ingrained in today's Russians, it's not like those with eyes to see can't quickly find contrary views, especially the youth. Which is to say the old Russian methods of divide, terrorise and rule won't work the same way.

I just don't see even a China model of social control/conditioning/forced conformity working in today's Russia, even with high tech spyware, 'social credit' scores, public shaming/instant fines etc. Barring a paternal state with a huge amount of subsidised wealth to throw around (Saudi levels), this kind of makes an advanced society and economy virtually impossible. The educated and creative vote with their feet.

 

Kamil might be wrong, but I think PUTIN thinks he is right about this. That is why Putin just keeps doubling down with ever lower quality cannon fodder. How the other guy THINKS things work, can be as important as how they DO work, at least until somebody throws the red dice, once it is a shooting war reality has rather more weight. Hence Russia is now in the beginning of the find out phase.

[LongLeftFlank]

Our old comrade @Bigduke6, last checked in here from Donbass  in 2016 (hoping he is well and he didn't get conscripted!), made a similar observation on Hitler years ago....

Repeatedly, German general staff estimates of the difficulty of a prospective war turn out to be overestimated. Poland, France, Low Countries, the Balkans, Norway; each time the operations are getting hung on a thread, and paying off with jackpot victories. The victory comes faster and with less blood than the generals expect. Conclusion: The military advisers are too conservative; in fact the Wehrmacht is more capable than they give it credit.

Those conservative Wehrmacht generals were conservative because they were professionals who had their Clausewitz drilled into them and knew war is friction and no plan survives contact with the enemy. But they did not call the shots, and the predictable result of amateur overconfidence was overreach. Hitler doubled up until he lost. There was nothing random about him hitting a wall eventually, he'd have gone right on doubling up.

 

[kraze]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

While those habits are still sadly deeply deeply ingrained in today's Russians, it's not like those with eyes to see can't quickly find contrary views, especially the youth. Which is to say the old Russian methods of divide, terrorise and rule won't work the same way.

People, who right now rape, loot and murder in Ukraine are russian youth. Most were 10-11 years old when the war with Ukraine started.

Generational slaves don't tick the way free people do and shouldn't be compared, expecting the seemingly logical results you are used to at home.

Edited September 20, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

19 minutes ago, kraze said:

 

 

 

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, kraze said:

People, who right now rape, loot and murder in Ukraine are russian youth. Most were 10-11 years old when the war with Ukraine started.

Generational slaves don't tick the way free people do and shouldn't be compared, expecting the seemingly logical results you are used to at home.

Russia has never, EVER been run even minimally well. It has always been some form of horrible extractive absolutism wrapped in some sort of utter B&^%S^$(. They literally have no experience of even barely decent anything, ever, it shows.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Ukraine receiving its most western and modern tank:

aand its a T-55

They are getting close to top of the line thermals, firing computer, laser warning systems, 105mm APFSDS-T with these babies. I say these are almost identical as sending modernized Leopard 1.

Similar case in Finland. We still have a battalion of modernized T-55 in reserve even when we scraped all the T-72 twenty years ago.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Russia has never, EVER been run even minimally well. It has always been some form of horrible extractive absolutism wrapped in some sort of utter B&^%S^$(. They literally have no experience of even barely decent anything, ever, it shows.

Well, Kievan Rus spawned Ukraine as well as Russia. And the Rus (Scandinavians) spawned Norway, Sweden and Denmark ... so where did *Russia* go wrong.

Can't even blame the 'usual suspects' - the Mongols - as they hit Ukraine as hard as Muscovy.

Edited September 20, 2022 by paxromana

[poesel]

8 hours ago, Huba said:

This is not NATO transition that I envisioned  Yeah, of course these can be put to a good use, it's better than nothing etc. but it's really underwhelming, no more joking about T-62s. One can only hope that this is just a first step and what follows will be a tad more modern...

 

I hope that this will be sold as 'Slovenian tank' (and not Soviet) in the media. Then this sorry excuse 'no other NATO nation has sent tanks' will go away. The Leopard I is just 10 years younger.

[Rokko]

I've read an interview with a German parliamentarian from the Greens recently. One paragraph stood out to me, which hints at one potential reason for the German unwillingness to deliver German MBTs and IFVs. Basically he blames Poland. I don't how valid the claim is, for all I know it may be BS politics, given that most of the government is still repeating the "let's not provoke Putin or else he might invade another country" line (with which army though). But his response indicates to me that was probably involved with the details of negotiating these various deals, and it does seem like the logistical concerns may have at least some merit.

Quote

[...]

But Ukraine is requesting Leopards and Marders.

Ukraine will receive equivalent [he is comparing Greek BMP-1s with Marders here] vehicles of Soviet design through the circle-swap, so that we do not have to build additional logistics in Poland, which is a bit of a problem there. For the Panzerhaubitze 2000 we had to have long negotiations with Poland, because our neighbor was unwilling to provide Germany with the necessary logistical support for this, which did surprise us. Therefore, it is more reasonable to do these circle-swaps, since the delivered weapons are immediately useful. [...]

Source: https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100054452/ukraine-juergen-trittin-dafuer-zahlt-deutschland-jetzt-einen-sehr-hohen-preis-.html

In any case, I think there is a decent chance the SPD may yet be bullied into delivering MBTs, eventually.

Edited September 20, 2022 by Rokko

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Russia has never, EVER been run even minimally well. It has always been some form of horrible extractive absolutism wrapped in some sort of utter B&^%S^$(. They literally have no experience of even barely decent anything, ever, it shows.

Hmm, so you would explain the events of c.Oct 1942 - May 1945 how, exactly?

****

As P.J. O'Rourke once said:

Getting a mass of people to labor, will-they, nil-they, toward abstract goals for the sake of people in the mass doesn't work. It can be done temporarily in dire emergencies such as last-minute decoration of the gym for the prom or during famines or when Nazis invade. Even the Soviet Union worked while Nazis were invading it. But on the morning after V-E Day, the proletariat was sloshed on the job again, Stalin was back to killing people, and the peasants were hiding their pigs. 

[Huba]

This is the best commentary regarding the M-55A I saw yet. Like poesel said, I really hope these will be spun as "Western tanks" and we'll be able to start sending stuff that will actually offer some advantage, instead of these sorry excuses.

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

41 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is the best commentary regarding the M-55A I saw yet.

 

Lol! some circles (we effete Western bourgeois intellectuals, you know) might not consider that exactly the most umm, progressive of memes.

....That said though, I am presently at a HH about 3 blocks from the infamous 'Midget Boxing' nightclub in the Burgos district of Manila, now defunct (a Covid victim). Mabuhay!

 

 

Edited September 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

People, who right now rape, loot and murder in Ukraine are russian youth. Most were 10-11 years old when the war with Ukraine started.

Generational slaves don't tick the way free people do and shouldn't be compared, expecting the seemingly logical results you are used to at home.

They also had access to modern internet and western media their whole lives. It didn't seem to have helped.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

They also had access to modern internet and western media their whole lives. It didn't seem to have helped.

Sure, and Dem Deutschen Volk, similarly, had no excuse not to know better before enlisting en masse in Hitler's death cult.

That all had little to do with my original point, but our friend chose to beat his usual drum, as he does on cue whenever anyone suggests some kind of future where any (*shudder!*) Russians might actually dig out of their current civilisational rut.

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fantastic stuff as always mate, cheers! You have been a real gift to this board!

I like looking at HeliosRunner's hi-res topos in parallel with your sat imagery.

https://twitter.com/HeliosRunner/status/1571567347869286401

 

Thank you for your kind words. Just doing what I can.  

HeliosRunner maps are great. They give an excellent feel of terrain, something that my satellite maps are not good at.

[chuckdyke]

Old ideas die hard what is next a modern version of the old Panzerbuchse?

 

[Zeleban]

The tank battle near the village of Oleksandrivka reportedly took place between 13 - 18 August. At the end of the video, Russian tanks retreat under artillery fire.

[Zeleban]

A little more action from the Kherson region

[FancyCat]

 

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sure, and Dem Deutschen Volk, similarly, had no excuse not to know better before enlisting en masse in Hitler's death cult.

That all had little to do with my original point, but our friend chose to beat his usual drum, as he does on cue whenever anyone suggests some kind of future where any (*shudder!*) Russians might actually dig out of their current civilisational rut.

Some understanding for kraze might be in order, he is Ukrainian no? Lives in Ukraine? We know from Bucha that Russian "filtration" meant executing men in fighting age. We also know that they are doing their best to suppress pro-Ukrainian sentiment in the occupied regions, and that means such things like possibly imprisoning, killing people found to harbor those sentiments, etc.

God forbid, had Kiyv completely fallen, Haiduk certainly would probably need to hide and delete his social media postings and anything relating to this forum certainly. (I dunno if kraze is in Ukraine or is Ukrainian but if so, the same applies to him) I won't begrudge someone who is watching the destruction of their country and the attempted wiping of their fellow people reacting with disdain and anger for Russians, when the current expression of Russia in Ukraine illustrates a deep, very deep rot in Russian society, with devastating suffering for Ukraine as a result.

2 hours ago, poesel said:

I hope that this will be sold as 'Slovenian tank' (and not Soviet) in the media. Then this sorry excuse 'no other NATO nation has sent tanks' will go away. The Leopard I is just 10 years younger.

I like your thinking! Wiki says Greece has a lot of Leopard 1s, maybe another ring agreement, Leopard 1s for 2s from Germany. Western MBT for Ukraine, and Germany can pretend they are Greek tanks and not German tanks.

Edited September 20, 2022 by FancyCat

[FancyCat]

Oh my, I just realized the M-55S uses the same NATO ammo as the Leopard 1. (Duh im a idiot) U.S official noting that we want to see if Ukraine can handle the tanks and supply chain....wouldn't be a issue then for all those 105mm NATO standard shells suddenly redirected to being resupplied to a Leopard 1. Itching slowly but the supply chain is getting prepped I think. Good signs.