How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

36 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Seems like the Russians are failing to hold the Oskil river line in several places. Anybody have any idea what the next terrain feature they could anchor too is?

 

I hear the Volga makes a good defensive line

[Haiduk]

Russian army has rotted completely. 

Russian liberal press "Nastoyashchee vremya" ("Present Time"):

In this weekend the detachment of IK-7 (correctional facility-7) from Novgorod oblast - 70 men from lowest pison hierarchy, so-called "detached", the same as "adroop" [this class of prisoners is almost the same as "untouchable" сaste in India]. I have a time to speak with one of latter and asked: "Why you go there?". He told, that better is death, than so stay in jail. From Tula oblast wrote: "They took everybody at all - lame, cross-eyed, with HIV, etc". In Saratov oblast they took a maniac, which has a cannibalism in own "achievement list". In principle, Prigozhyn says, he prefers "105th" [by crimainal codex artilce] - those, who commited murder, better non-domestic. Brigandage, robbery - also go well. But now they are taking everybody at all" 

[billbindc]

 

Of interest....

[Ultradave]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Your personal account was spot on relevant even to today.  Thanks for that.  My quip was just pointing out that you're no longer a young whipper snapper.  In case you weren't aware

Steve

Oh, yeah, well aware of that. My body tells me every day because I'm stubborn and continue to run even at the age of almost 66. (The Army made me run and surprise! I found out I was good at it and like it) I do have friends with more recent first hand experience though. We started getting Blackhawks about a year after I arrived at the 82d Airborne. Man, what a ride after thumping around and jumping (falling really) in Hueys.  It was like trading in your VW Beetle for a BMW 7 series. Not that there is anything wrong with a Beetle but what a difference.

All this time later and the sounds of a Blackhawk, a C-130 and a Huey (don't hear many but very occasionally) are instantly recognizable and make you look at the sky. We have a couple of USCG C-130s that fly over south to north going to somewhere, or returning. I know them when they are barely audible - so used to the sounds.

Dave

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1570896114114793473/photo/1

 

[Artkin]

51 minutes ago, sburke said:

I hear the Volga makes a good defensive line

Not before the river Mius or Don 

[FancyCat]

My lord, how rotten is the Russian General Staff? The amount of decisions made in this war that has fuelled the good decisions by the Ukrainians is just mind boggling.

I wish we knew more on who is giving the orders. Is it Putin? Or is the staff just completely inept?

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Not before the river Mius or Don 

I think they'll fall back to Amur line at some point

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

I think they'll fall back to Amur line at some point

you mean advance to the Amur line as part of their regrouping to spare civilians. 

[Huba]

Just now, sburke said:

you mean advance to the Amur line as part of their regrouping to spare civilians. 

While cowardly Ukrainians run after them in panic

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Seems like the Russians are failing to hold the Oskil river line in several places. Anybody have any idea what the next terrain feature they could anchor too is?

 

The Zherebets (?) river is about 20 km east of the Oskil, and roughly parallel to it - no idea how much of an obstacle it represents though. It runs down to the lake north of Zarichne.

Edited September 16, 2022 by TheVulture

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

The Zherebets (?) river is about 20 km east of the Oskil, and roughly parallel to it - no idea how much of an obstacle it represents though. It runs down to the lake north of Zarichne.

It sounds like the issue isn't so much a barrier but troops to actually hold it.  But hey they have a cannibal on the way.  christ you couldn't make this stuff up.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

It sounds like the issue isn't so much a barrier but troops to actually hold it.  But hey they have a cannibal on the way.  christ you couldn't make this stuff up.

Kind of puts the whole “no sex with flora” point in perspective.

[BlackMoria]

Huh?   I must of missed that.    Is someone  'abusing' vegetables?

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Is someone  'abusing' vegetables?

Yes cucumbers are for eating only.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Huh?   I must of missed that.    Is someone  'abusing' vegetables?

A few pages back.  Apparently the Wagner guys are the height of professional because they have a standing order not to rape "fauna or flora" - plant violation is a thing apparently.  Thought it was a hilarious English language barrier thing but now I am no so sure. 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Huh?   I must of missed that.    Is someone  'abusing' vegetables?

It is verboten by Prighozin - no abusing of anything or anybody is allowed for his ex-convicts, same for using substances. Only violence is allowed as far as passing time is concerned.
Yesterday there was video going around in his speech in prison, where he was recruiting convicts for Wagner.

[Huba]

In other news, I just read that US is lifting arms embargo on Republic of Cyprus starting next year. I wonder if they wouldn't entertain a thought of replacing their T-80s and BMP-3s with something western produced...

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

Of interest....

That is indeed interesting for various reasons... if the Ukrainian project just needed a little push (and new facilities) that would be probably a cheaper and politically safer way of empowering Ukraine with long range strike capabilities.

[dan/california]

20 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

That is indeed interesting for various reasons... if the Ukrainian project just needed a little push (and new facilities) that would be probably a cheaper and politically safer way of empowering Ukraine with long range strike capabilities.

I made this speculation back when the air base strike first happened, but it is worth repeating. Within a week, two at the outside ,of the outbreak of hostilities, this entire production line was set up in Poland. It aligns perfectly with the needs of both countries and their ever tightening alliance. There will be more deep booms when the next batch is ready. It will be apparent soon enough if I am right. I will add one additional speculation, if I was in charge of a Ukrainian ballistic missile program there is one number that would never leave my mind. It is 750 km from Kharkiv to Moscow. No evidence of any of this except the booms at Saki, and the article above. But the Ukrainians aren't stupid, and the Poles hate the Russians with a burning passion, and would LOVE their own missile system, or half interest in one as it were.

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I made this speculation back when the air base strike first happened, but it is worth repeating. Within a week, two at the outside ,of the outbreak of hostilities, this entire production line was set up in Poland. It aligns perfectly with the needs of both countries and their ever tightening alliance. There will be more deep booms when the next batch is ready. It will be apparent soon enough if I am right. I will add one additional speculation, if I was in charge of a Ukrainian ballistic missile program there is one number that would never leave my mind. It is 750 km from Kharkiv to Moscow. No evidence of any of this except the booms at Saki, and the article above. But the Ukrainians aren't stupid, and the Poles hate the Russians with a burning passion, and would LOVE their own missile system, or half interest in one as it were.

I'll add to that that there is absolutely zero mentions, clues, anything that could point to that actually happening. Which proves absolutely nothing
I wonder though how difficult would be setting all of this up. Poland hardly has any rocket technology base. Last time I checked we were struggling to set up production of modern 122mm rocket motors and were buying these from the French (which was a problem cause we wanted to mount DPICM warheads on them). OTOH, with enough external help this perhaps would be possible, we are speculating here. The way I see that is that the production of major components would probably have to be outsourced to external manufacturers (in US?) with Poland serving as final assembly area. 
If that's actually going on, and Saki attack was a final field test of sorts, I bet next in line would be assembling a big enough inventory that would allow striking Crimea bridge, so perhaps a half a dozen launchers, and maybe 30 missiles? 
 

[Huba]

Patrick Boyle did another video about sanctions, RU economy and the impact of the war on the global economic situation. It's hard to really summarize it, I wholeheartedly recommend the whole vid if you have time, it's better than Perun's. A little teaser quote:
"Russian economy is in tatters. It's a lot like the anti-sanction Lada: in rough shape, stumbling along with a lot of important components missing".

 

Edited September 17, 2022 by Huba

[Offshoot]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We haven't touched on this in a while, so I'll do so now.  The social compact between the Russian people and Putin is fundamentally based on preventing a return to the lawlessness and privations of the 1990s.  Due to many factors, not least of which is the failed war in Ukraine, the underlying causes of the 1990s seem to be accelerating.  In some ways they are likely already here and people are just dismissing it as temporary inconvenience.  But it's not and it won't be temporary.

This is what I thought Prigozhin's speech was meant to convey - that he is a man of such authority that he will convert convicts into moral people who will defend Russia and the people.
I saw a twitter title saying the video was leaked, but if it was I imagine he leaked it himself (he also has his own media company). It was an absurd pitch to make to murderers, rapists and thieves - you can die for Russia but you will not loot or rape - so it likely wasn't meant for them.
And my apologies for my fruity joke emphasizing the absurdity of his speech

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

I'll throw them under separatists.  I've been working on breaking down a bit more to the extent I can of what structural groupings are represented OMON,SOBR regular army, VDV etc  

Maybe it's time for an updated count?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Oh, yeah, well aware of that. My body tells me every day because I'm stubborn and continue to run even at the age of almost 66. (The Army made me run and surprise! I found out I was good at it and like it) I do have friends with more recent first hand experience though. We started getting Blackhawks about a year after I arrived at the 82d Airborne. Man, what a ride after thumping around and jumping (falling really) in Hueys.  It was like trading in your VW Beetle for a BMW 7 series. Not that there is anything wrong with a Beetle but what a difference.

All this time later and the sounds of a Blackhawk, a C-130 and a Huey (don't hear many but very occasionally) are instantly recognizable and make you look at the sky. We have a couple of USCG C-130s that fly over south to north going to somewhere, or returning. I know them when they are barely audible - so used to the sounds.

Dave

Had a C-130 deliberately divert from flight path to buzz my family while we were sitting in a red boat in the middle of a large lake.  You could almost see the bastards smiling.  My father, remembering his airborne training (503rd when it was still independent) swore at the Air Force and all that it stands for.  Then he chuckled, because damn that was funny.

Steve