How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I think that might be a bit of an exaggerated estimate. The figures I've seen have the total area occupied by the RA as around 116,000 square km and the UA gain during this offensive of about 6,000 square km. That is an occupation area the size of Ohio and a liberation size comparable to Delaware (or 3 moderately sized midwest counties). On the map it looks bigger but most of time the map is zoomed in when showing results.

I was excluding the territory it already had prior to the February 24th.  I tried to make that clear, because IMHO this war is not about territory seized in 2014/2015, it's about getting back to the pre February borders.  Once that has been achieved then a decision can be made about how to get back the rest.  That might be negotiated over, whereas the territory taken since February should be 100% non-negotiable.

I did some quick mapping math and came up with Russia having controlled roughly 75,000 km2 since February 24th and prior to the Kharkiv offensive.  They took back somewhere around 8,000 km2, which means the Kharkiv offensive reclaimed 10% of this war's conquests that they still controlled.  So you are correct that my 25% was overly generous (I forgot how much of Luhansk they didn't have prior to this war!).

37 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Now not taking away from their success and I wish them a bunch more, but reality is it isn't really that big in terms of area. They will need 3-4 more offensives of this size just to secure the rest of Luhansk Oblast. Unless they aren't done yet, pass through reserves and continue their push for more. We'll have to wait and see.  

It's the most amount of territory taken by either side as a result of a deliberate attack since probably March.  All cumulative Russian gains for 5 months don't add up to what Ukraine got in 1 week.

37 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Where I think he really misses the true success of this offensive is in the destruction of the 1st Guards Tank Army. Granted we don't know the full extent yet but from the video after video of destroyed and captured equipment in bunches I think it is safe to assume they have taken a serious whoopin'. For him not to acknowledge the importance of that, which I believe will be very big for letting Ukraine continue to push or push again after a pause, is puzzling considering he occupies the position that he does. To me it shows more of a statement to support the German political stance more than any sort of military analysis of the situation.

Some estimates, based on Oyrx data, put the losses for the 1st GTA at about 50%.  Roughly 90 something tanks, most of which were T-80.  What is also significant is this is the SECOND time that Ukraine has wrecked the 1st GTA in this war.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

$780?  Geez really whooped him into shape.

 

Russia Takes Action Against Official Who Demanded Putin's Resignation (msn.com)

 

He should go to the nearest T34 victory memorial (I think all the other tanks in Russia are spoken for at the moment) and read a long statement from on top of it. 

Straight to Instagram.....

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Where I think he really misses the true success of this offensive is in the destruction of the 1st Guards Tank Army. Granted we don't know the full extent yet but from the video after video of destroyed and captured equipment in bunches I think it is safe to assume they have taken a serious whoopin'. For him not to acknowledge the importance of that, which I believe will be very big for letting Ukraine continue to push or push again after a pause, is puzzling considering he occupies the position that he does. To me it shows more of a statement to support the German political stance more than any sort of military analysis of the situation.

https://turcopolier.com/1st-guards-tank-army-will-take-years-to-rebuild-after-being-pulverized-in-ukraine/

Grant Lang, citing and commenting on a Torygraph piece.

[Battlefront.com]

Another bunch of tangible "wins" from the Kharkiv success that aren't as prominently mentioned as they should be.  Sure, destroying the enemy and taking back relatively large amounts of terrain is very good, but we shouldn't forget that there's more:

1. Russia no longer has an even unrealistic chance of taking the remaining territory of Donetsk.  Izyum was supposed to be the northern pincer and south of Donetsk City the southern.  We know darned well that for months Russia has utterly failed to make either of them gain ground, but at least symbolically they were there.  With Izyum gone, that's a dead horse.
2. Kharkiv is no longer within range of normal Russian artillery.  The terror strikes on a major metro area are now limited to long range missile hits.  Big change.
3. Russia lost a significant buffer on the Ukrainian side of the border to protect Belgorod from more attack options.  We're talking 30-40km range from a long section of common border.  HIMARS is not supposed to be used against Russia, but that doesn't mean Russia can't be a bit worried about it
4. Ukraine decreased its frontage with this attack, which means it can free up units to move elsewhere.
5. Russia's primary prize (Luhansk) now has a nearly wide open flank.  We're still not sure what Russia can put there, but LPR certainly doesn't have excess manpower to shove up into that area.  I mean, there's only so many dads going to pick up their kids that you can get in one war!

That's just off the top of my head.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Three significant tea leaves in yesterday's ISW report:

Quote

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine. Prigozhin gave a recruitment speech on September 14 announcing that Russian prisoners have been participating in the war since July 1 when they were instrumental in seizing the Vuhlehirska Thermal Power Plant.[1] A Russian milblogger noted that Prigozhin is introducing a “Stalinist” method that allows the Kremlin to avoid ordering a general mobilization that could ignite social tensions in Russian society.[2] Milbloggers have been consistently praising Prigozhin’s success in Ukraine and some even said that he should replace the Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, whom milbloggers and Kremlin pundits blame for the Russian defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.[3] Russian military correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky) claimed to have spoken to Prigozhin about the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border after the withdrawal of Russian forces in the area.[4] The Prigozhin-Fomin meeting, if it occurred, could indicate that the Kremlin is attempting to address milbloggers’ months-long complaints that the Russian Defense Ministry did not hear their criticism highlighting the ineffectiveness of Russian higher command. Prigozhin is Putin’s close confidant, and his developing relationship with milbloggers may help retain milblogger support for the Kremlin’s war effort while scapegoating Shoigu and the Russian Defense Ministry for the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin has changed its information approach to address the demands of the Russian milbloggers and nationalists’, suggesting that Putin seeks to win back the critical milblogger community alienated by Russian failures.[5]

Again, more evidence that the RU Nats are not just noisy nobodies, they are instead an important constituent of the Putin regime.  Possibly the most important.  It seems evident that Putin's regime believes they have power and influence way beyond a couple of guys pounding away on keyboards.

Quote

Russian military authorities continue to rely heavily on ostensibly Chechen units to generate combat power for operations in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on September 14 that Russian leadership plans to redeploy four Chechen battalions to Ukraine, but these battalions are significantly understrength and comprised mainly of non-Chechen mercenaries from economically depressed regions of Russia.[44] Social media footage circulated on pro-Russian channels showed a detachment of Chechen servicemembers arriving in an unspecified area of Ukraine.[45]

Hmm.  To me this sounds like Kadyrov is continuing to hold back his best forces for local uses, despite Putin being desperate to get more troops into Ukraine.

Quote

Russian military leadership is likely attempting to force Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) proxy forces evacuated from Kharkiv Oblast to relocate to frontlines in Donetsk Oblast, rather than reinforcing the new frontlines in Luhansk, their home province. Odesa military spokesperson Sergey Bratchuk reshared a Telegram post alleging that women in Luhansk attempted to protest the LNR forces’ immediate redeployment and shared a video of many uniformed personnel and civilians on the streets in an unspecified location.[47] Forcing proxy forces to fight outside of their claimed oblasts will likely exacerbate morale issues and possible insubordination among proxy forces particularly if Ukrainian forces advance further into Luhansk Oblast.

Another possible flashpoint.  The logical thing to do with LPR troops is to put them on their home turf guarding their newly ripped open flank.  Yet Russian command seems to have other ideas.  Which usually means they are bad ideas.

Steve

[sburke]

Olga Simonova, Who Quit Russia To Fight for Ukraine, Killed on Front: Report (msn.com)

[Taranis]

"On September 14, 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Izium, southeast of Kharkiv, in an area taken over by the Ukrainian army. AP"


"A resident of the city of Izium walks past a decommissioned and abandoned Russian tank, September 14, 2022. LEO CORREA / AP"
*T-72 (obr89?)

[Zeleban]

Lend-Lease symphony

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, akd said:

Looks like continuation of previously seen (from a different viewpoint) combat at pit mine in Bakmuts’ke (48.67652° N, 38.10503° E):

 

Sorry, for a bit of nitpicking but this is not Bakhmutse. It is the eastern part of Soledar (close to Bakhmutse though). The reason I am clarifying it is because this is one of two areas (other is Knauf plant) RU supposed to hold firmly. But that is not what we see on video. 

From various RU bits situation looks like this - RU does not hold anything firmly in Soledar. It is a grey area. At night RU infiltrate there another portion of cannon fodder assault groups. The groups hide there under UKR fire until UKR organizes local counter attack to clear fodder out (like on video). Then UKR retreat and whole process repeats. 

P.S. I tried to add map but looks like my hosting is down at the moment.

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another possible flashpoint.  The logical thing to do with LPR troops is to put them on their home turf guarding their newly ripped open flank.  Yet Russian command seems to have other ideas.  Which usually means they are bad ideas.

Steve

This indicates they did not abandon idea of "liberating" Donetsk region or rather pushing front line further from Donetsk at all cost. This indirectly confirms that the political problem of Donetsk close proximity to the front line is critical for RU command. It is so critical that they risk social unrest and vulnerability of Luhansk frontier just to reinforce Donetsk region. 

[poesel]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, that is the fairly obvious intent to people who have been following the German political debacle over how to handle the end of Ostpolitik.  It's the latest version of "we shouldn't help Ukraine because Russia is too strong" argument.  In the German context, it is a thin excuse to do nothing.

A bit late, but there is a point not mentioned yet. Later in the interview, the general said that he is worried about Russia opening a second front in „Kaliningrad, Baltic Sea, Finland, Georgia, Moldova…". 

I don't need to ask this forum what we think about that possibility. But it shows the old Cold War mind set about the giant Russian bear lurking in the east with endless resources is still firmly set in the minds of some. Maybe that's a lesson learned from WWII or even Napoleon, that you can win a lot of battles against Russia, but still lose the war.

This is also a reason why this current victory is so important for the public. It shows that Russia can lose. Another win in Kherson in a few weeks would harden that feeling even more. And, even though some may laugh about this, taking Transnistria away from Russia now would be quite helpful (PR wise)(MHO).

 

Edit: just read the comments below the interview. Not one agreeing with the general. There's hope!

Edited September 15, 2022 by poesel

[Huba]

There's more gold in from the interview with head of DE GS. Herr General warns that if we ship too much weapons, we won't be able to defend ourselves if Russia decides to open a second front. FFS, this really isn't funny, who is this guy?

 

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

https://turcopolier.com/1st-guards-tank-army-will-take-years-to-rebuild-after-being-pulverized-in-ukraine/

Grant Lang, citing and commenting on a Torygraph piece.

I like this piece, cause it provides just a little more context to emphasize how badly 1st GTA is doing in Ukraine. Nothing a lot that is new, but if 5 months isn't enough to restore a supposedly elite unit, what chance does the rest of the Russian military have?

From: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/09/13/a-hundred-wrecked-tanks-in-a-hundred-deadly-hours-heavy-losses-gut-russias-best-tank-army/

 

Quote

The survivors of the 1st GTA—in particular, two regiments of the 4th GTD as well as two regiments of the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division—redeployed to the front around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, just 25 miles from the Russian border in northeastern Ukraine. 

Five months later, the 1st GTA regiments still hadn’t made good all their losses.

 

[Grigb]

Prigozhin PR campaign did something interesting. It created discussion among RU Nat (and to extend among RU public) that PMCs are better alternative to RU state forces from soldiers' point of view. Main selling point is stable payment and award system. RU state forces are notorious for stealing money and awards from troops. So, this is very big incentive given RU men have to feed their families in conditions of RU failing economy. 

But the interesting thing is that it creates a trend of increasing military power of RU PMCs. Hold your horses shouting at me that these PMCs are no threat to Western military. I am not discussing their combat capabilities (for now). What I mean is there is a possibility that in near future there will be shift of Power from State Power Actors like Governors, Police or Army Generals to however have effective PMC. 

If I am right RU splitting/Civil war will happen along the lines of PMCs. 

How it relates to us:

If I would be Intel officer, I would start tracking RU Oligarchs with capabilities to form PMCs. Most likely it will be Oligarchs from manufacturing sphere. Just having money is not enough. But if you have a plant, you surely have security service to serve as nucleus for PMC and you have manpower resource (plant workers) to tap in for expansion. Given the deteriorating situation you will have to do it anyway to protect what you have.

If I am right and the Shift will happen, the West will have option to influence events in the RU sewers without direct military intervention. 

RU PMCs are basically tribes linked to businesses that generate income. They will press each other to get control of the business. And the weakest ones will look for help. Any help. And they could get it under conditions favorable for the West.

Buffer of West friendly Oligarch PMCs or Militias formed from a plant workers at EU border will significantly decrease risk for EU while costing peanuts in money and no cost in lives of our boys. 

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Prigozhin PR campaign did something interesting. It created discussion among RU Nat (and to extend among RU public) that PMCs are better alternative to RU state forces from soldiers' point of view. Main selling point is stable payment and award system. RU state forces are notorious for stealing money and awards from troops. So, this is very big incentive given RU men have to feed their families in conditions of RU failing economy. 

But the interesting thing is that it creates a trend of increasing military power of RU PMCs. Hold your horses shouting at me that these PMCs are no threat to Western military. I am not discussing their combat capabilities (for now). What I mean is there is a possibility that in near future there will be shift of Power from State Power Actors like Governors, Police or Army Generals to however have effective PMC. 

If I am right RU splitting/Civil war will happen along the lines of PMCs. 

How it relates to us:

If I would be Intel officer, I would start tracking RU Oligarchs with capabilities to form PMCs. Most likely it will be Oligarchs from manufacturing sphere. Just having money is not enough. But if you have a plant, you surely have security service to serve as nucleus for PMC and you have manpower resource (plant workers) to tap in for expansion. Given the deteriorating situation you will have to do it anyway to protect what you have.

If I am right and the Shift will happen, the West will have option to influence events in the RU sewers without direct military intervention. 

RU PMCs are basically tribes linked to businesses that generate income. They will press each other to get control of the business. And the weakest ones will look for help. Any help. And they could get it under conditions favorable for the West.

Buffer of West friendly Oligarch PMCs or Militias formed from a plant workers at EU border will significantly decrease risk for EU while costing peanuts in money and no cost in lives of our boys. 

Yay, private armies are making a comeback! This is getting better and better with each passing day...

[Grigb]

Just for reference - example of post I see:

Quote

We would call the letter  [we received] "Why [men] leave for PMCs"

"Hello, I would like to add [to your post that], according to Rosgvardiya, there is a complete isolation of [admin] units in the rear from those who are closer to the front line.

If everything was more or less ok at the beginning, then after 6 months the idiots who produce papers again came to the fore, demanding various preparation plans, etc.

Arriving at the grouping, the employees of the VAI [Military Police]  began to check  waybills and marks in them to  certificates of the senior [soldier].

As for awards, they refuse [to be handed out] to the most belligerent [troops], it comes to the point of absurdity when military personnel are awarded departmental badges, [but rear commanders are] giving themselves state awards, thereby devaluing them. In their understanding, coming to the unit for a few days is enough to receive a state award, and a person who has been there for 4 months and performed [combat] tasks receives a departmental badge. The theater of the absurd continues, unfortunately.

The attitude of the command to this issue is upsetting when a simple serviceman who really deserves a state award does not get it, but at the same time they give themselves  [the awards] out without problems. One of the reasons why people leave and go private [MCs]."

 

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yay, private armies are making a comeback! This is getting better and better with each passing day...

For us - it is. For Western representatives it is very difficult to work RU State actors. They are extensively cleansed and conditioned for loyalty to RU state. They are dumb, inflexible MFs who see West as an eternal heinous enemy.

How are you going to approach local Roysgravrdia general? Simple answer - when you have the option to apply a bottle to him (if you know what I mean) which is not something you want to do.

How to approach Oligarchs who form PMC of how is under pressure from rival PMCs? Easy - he might even approach you first if you get word on the street.

[Grigb]

That's could be my confirmation bias but small signs of RU private militarization are appearing everywhere

Quote

It's time for Belgorod taxi drivers to buy bulletproof vests))) At least for those who don't mind going to the border)))

First, they buy vests, but eventually with the collapse of RU security services they will start forming self-defense groups to help each other...

Edited September 15, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

RUMINT - during future possible losses Kremlin will do cleansing of RU military-industrial complex to counter public negative perception of the situation.

Quote

Oboronprom [MI complex] will be the first to be eaten. However, the level of people that the AP [Administration of President] will feed to the indignant public will greatly depend on the situation at the front.

"The case may be limited to average bosses from some UVZ, for whom [they] will find some corruption [cases]. But the [AP] higher ups made it clear that there might not be any untouchables in the industry. Right up to the very first persons," the source claims.

However, how this will help the real state of affairs at the front, he decided to leave out the conversation.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

Edit: just read the comments below the interview. Not one agreeing with the general. There's hope!

Well come on, he IS German.

If you aren't pocketing at least 50,000 prisoners, it isn't an offensive.

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

I would be Intel officer, I would start tracking RU Oligarchs with capabilities to form PMCs. Most likely it will be Oligarchs from manufacturing sphere. Just having money is not enough. But if you have a plant, you surely have security service to serve as nucleus for PMC and you have manpower resource (plant workers) to tap in for expansion. Given the deteriorating situation you will have to do it anyway to protect what you have.

If I am right and the Shift will happen, the West will have option to influence events in the RU sewers without direct military intervention. 

RU PMCs are basically tribes linked to businesses that generate income. They will press each other to get control of the business. And the weakest ones will look for help. Any help. And they could get it under conditions favorable for the West.

The notion of Russia descending into a crossover between Somalia circa 1992 and Twilight 2000 without the nuclear mass death/fallout is frankly terrifying.

Edited September 15, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[chuckdyke]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If you aren't pocketing at least 50,000 prisoners, it isn't an offensive.

He sees counter attacks which are not yet a counter offensive. He is just careful with his words. German politics are a minefield. 

[paxromana]

15 minutes ago, BletchleyGeek said:

The notion of Russia descending into a crossover between Somalia circa 1992 and Twilight 2000 without the nuclear mass death/fallout is frankly terrifying.

You know the recently released 4th Edition of Twilight 2000 (Free League) had to assume that 1989 collapse of USSR never happened to make for a 'believable' AD 2000 war (assuming you understand that believable in this context means downright bat**** crazy!)?

[womble]

PMCs are basically mercenaries. Most mercenaries have a price. In treasure. The West is better placed to outbid Putin than vice-versa. Devolving the defense of the Realm onto the shoulders of Condottieri wasn't a sustainable approach for the Italian city states at the beginning othe Renaissance; it doesn't seem likely to be any more effective in the  C21st.

[paxromana]

5 minutes ago, womble said:

PMCs are basically mercenaries. Most mercenaries have a price. In treasure. The West is better placed to outbid Putin than vice-versa. Devolving the defense of the Realm onto the shoulders of Condottieri wasn't a sustainable approach for the Italian city states at the beginning othe Renaissance; it doesn't seem likely to be any more effective in the  C21st.

"Gold may not get you good soldiers, but good soldiers can get you gold." Good old Nick had it right.