How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Just now, billbindc said:

"stuck at Customs" is going to take a significant toll on them but I'd go with the idea that L-DPR units will likely be the best there is left in Russia's army by the end of the year.

Seems so - Lyman did not fall quickly because LPR infantry and Kossak volunteer regiment did not run away when regulars did. 

[Chibot Mk IX]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Another crack in the system:

 

For Communist Party, mobilization is their ladder to the throne, they probably hope history repeats itself and a 1917 v2.0 scenario is on the horizon  

 

To many other Rus Nat, that’s their last hope (besides nuke, well nuke must sounds too scary even to them)

**********************************************************************************************************

As an outside, I am always wondering if Russian can effectively execute a mobilization. I have this doubt since April.

Serdyukov reform laid off 60-70% officers, closed hundreds of military training facilities. What makes the situation worse is Russian sent a lot of military school instructors to the frontline, and we have discussed this hundreds page before. Some of the instructors already got killed.

So assuming a general mobilization carries out in a week, generating hundreds of thousands manpower on paper. Can RA find enough military training facilities for the conscripts ? Is there enough experienced personal to train the rookies? In the best case scenario , can Russia wait for at least 6 month for a foot soldiers to finish the training course and probably two years for a young Lieutenant to graduate from school?

 

RA must invest a lot of resources (resources they don’t have) to the mobilization and wait for a very long time for the fruit falling into their hands.

I have a conspiracy theory; the FSB faction must love to see a mobilization happens. Since RA cannot handle increased manpower so whoever made the decision will have to ask for FSB’s help on training. That means, a lot of guns and foot soldiers will fall into FSB’s hands.

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

For Communist Party, mobilization is their ladder to the throne, they probably hope history repeats itself and a 1917 v2.0 scenario is on the horizon

They better be careful, lest they get a new treaty of brest-litovsk.  Though this time they certainly deserve to get that.

[Grigb]

New Khodakovksy post

Quote

The enemy crushed the air with a EW, struck with artillery at the area where the [UKR] DRG [Recon team] sortie was repulsed at night - [we have] one non-returnable [dead], four wounded. It's hard for the infantry without [arty] cover, and cover has not yet been established - we need to speed up the process: every [arty] gunner should remember that by crushing the infantry, the enemy will get to him [as well].

Discussion:

At Vuhledar direction

• UKR significantly improved EW (or increased the number of EW devices)
• Despite issues UKR artillery can dominate when and where it is needed
• Despite numerical superiority RU arty suck there

The last one is interesting because I see other reports that RU arty either does not shoot or shoot badly (for example for an hour could not hit static UKR column). RU arty might finally hit the tubes resource problem.  

 

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, kraze said:

I mean there was a video where one of those teachers boldly stated that if need arises he will take a sniper rifle and go kill some Ukrainians.

So russians said: OK.

Best part is that these bastards can't be considered POWs according to international law, just criminals.

There needs to be a special prison in Ukraine run by crippled AZOV veterans, and the widows of fallen AZOV soldiers. These Russian "teachers" should be the first inmates.

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

For Communist Party, mobilization is their ladder to the throne, they probably hope history repeats itself and a 1917 v2.0 scenario is on the horizon  

 

To many other Rus Nat, that’s their last hope (besides nuke, well nuke must sounds too scary even to them)

**********************************************************************************************************

As an outside, I am always wondering if Russian can effectively execute a mobilization. I have this doubt since April.

Serdyukov reform laid off 60-70% officers, closed hundreds of military training facilities. What makes the situation worse is Russian sent a lot of military school instructors to the frontline, and we have discussed this hundreds page before. Some of the instructors already got killed.

So assuming a general mobilization carries out in a week, generating hundreds of thousands manpower on paper. Can RA find enough military training facilities for the conscripts ? Is there enough experienced personal to train the rookies? In the best case scenario , can Russia wait for at least 6 month for a foot soldiers to finish the training course and probably two years for a young Lieutenant to graduate from school?

 

RA must invest a lot of resources (resources they don’t have) to the mobilization and wait for a very long time for the fruit falling into their hands.

I have a conspiracy theory; the FSB faction must love to see a mobilization happens. Since RA cannot handle increased manpower so whoever made the decision will have to ask for FSB’s help on training. That means, a lot of guns and foot soldiers will fall into FSB’s hands.

Ru has neither infrastructure nor officers or specialists to enable mobilization. Agent Murz specifically stated that there are no Comms specialists left. 

And there is another critical issue - the incompetence of the whole military-civilian administration chain that is supposed to do it. L-DPR mobilization done by these people was utter disaster. 

 

3 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

I have a conspiracy theory; the FSB faction must love to see a mobilization happens. Since RA cannot handle increased manpower so whoever made the decision will have to ask for FSB’s help on training. That means, a lot of guns and foot soldiers will fall into FSB’s hands.

For FSB it is nightmare actually - the number of military aged males with access to the guns will increase dramatically. Remember Battle of pub in Kherson? Two drunk army soldiers shot four FSB boiz (well, one escaped). 

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Just my usual reminder not to underestimate RU Nat Volunteers. They are learning and improving. And not just their volunteer units but RU regular units as well. 

 

Great, they will be well positioned to run a nasty insurgency.

It is not about tactical level capability - it won't matter if the "RU Nats" get laser guns at this point.  The Russians have failed at creating, projecting and employing a functioning operational military system.  The symptoms of this are:

- In Phase I - got bogged down and eventually collapsed on operation offence, frankly their best shot at actually winning this thing.  Noted shortfalls were logistics and ISR - e.g. the Russians had lobbed 2000 "precision" cruise missile systems by end March I believe, yet Ukraine still had 1) functioning transportation infrastructure and 2) functioning information structure.  That, and all the abandoned vehicles, this tell me that the entire system left of effect (remember this?)

Is not coherent, nor did it work.

- In Phase II, they abandoned manoeuvre and dislocation entirely, likely because they had too, and devolved back to literal WW1 levels of dumb-mass attrition...and it did not work.  The UA was hurt in some units/sectors, but freakin obviously not anywhere enough to weaken their operational system. The Russians decided to waste their remaining, and dwindling, supply of Deep Strike on terror strikes - likely a combination of incoherent doctrine,  dis-jointed C2 and crappy ISR.  Again operational offence = fail - they never reached their operational objectives in the Donbas after significant costs.

- In Phase III, we get to the real fun stuff.  First, I do not want to diminish the UA's accomplishments - not one bit, conducting a complex double operation 500+kms apart is really hard to do for any military, let alone one that basically had to mobilize to this level in 6 months. 

However, what is clear to me is that once again Russian ISR is crap - they could not see where the UA forces (Division apparently) were massing and last I checked even light vehicles need gas.  Second the Russian logistical system has been hammered so badly it probably can't tell which way is up right now - Oryx shows almost 200 engineering vehicles and 1549(!) lost logistical vehicles (a number that is freakishly high, but we know is lowballed as most strikes occurred well back from the front).  Just for reference an entire Soviet MRD had about 2000 logistical vehicles (count them:https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm100-2-3.pdf).  So the RA has nearly lost an entire MR Divisions worth of logistics vehicles  - that we know about, and we also know their current BTG orgs are very light on log vehicles to begin with.  This does not count ammo dumps and whatever else got HIMARed. 

Then the RA got bounced between both ends of its ridonkulous frontage like a dirty tennis ball, getting smack at both ends and in the middle for good measure.  And then fell inward like a rotten garden shed and lost 3000 sq kms on what looks like at least 100+km frontage -  Russian operational defence = fail.

So at this point I do not care if the RA hires the freakin Sardaukar - if they cannot rebuild an entire operational military system en par with the UA's, they are done.     

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

In St. Petersburg, they are experiencing the defeat from Ukraine in their own way

you laugh my friend, but this is the feared commander of 3rd string AK!

[sburke]

more boosts for Russian morale!

Russian Brigade Suspends Paying Injured Troops as Morale Collapses: Ukraine (msn.com)

Quote

"According to available information, in order to improve the state of combat readiness of the 2nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 2nd Army Corps, the command of the brigade issued an order not to pay stipends to servicemen who are temporarily absent, in particular, undergoing treatment. Resumption of payments occurs only after the presentation of supporting documents and with the personal permission of the commander."

Russian Hospitals 'Simplified' Combat Injuries to Send Soldiers Back to War (msn.com)

Quote

 

Last Monday, the General Staff said Russia was recruiting sick and injured soldiers from hospitals to replace lost troops.

"So, recently, representatives of the Russian occupation army began to arrive at local hospitals in the city and forcefully 'discharge' patients," the General Staff said. "Men of military age with various diseases or injuries, including those wounded during hostilities who are undergoing treatment, fall under such an extract."

 

 

[Kinophile]

You know,  the reserves that UKR has on hand don't need to be expended on a new front, with all its unknowns and additional logistics work. 

They could instead reinforce or pass through and extend the already successful Kharkiv/Izium offensive,as a second fresh wave. 

Save the initial wave of units, give them a perfectly timed rest,  securing territory acting as a operational reserve., yet keep the offensive going. Then leapfrog the rested units back in and rest the second wave 

That might become far more dangerous, as a push south to east Donetsk could start to cut off the entire RU forces within  Ukraine. 

Kessel the entire lot of 'Em. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Bennie]

7 hours ago, FancyCat said:

I can imagine how much anyone wants to go to Ukraine to work knowing this ****.

 

 

Austria's insistence on sending teachers to Serbia is what started WWI.

[sburke]

Rumor has it he fell out of a porthole.

 

Putin's Key Man in the Arctic Found Dead After Falling Overboard (msn.com)

Quote

Ivan Pechorin, 39, managing director of the Corporation for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, reportedly fell off a boat at full speed and died Saturday near Russky Island in the Sea of Japan in Primorsky Krai, Russia, near Vladivostock, about 5,800 miles east of Moscow.

 

[DesertFox]

Sorry for the OT. Couldn´t help it...

 

 

[Huba]

A tad more from russian TV. Again, I notice that "war" is being spoken about quite openly, which was a big no-no even a few weeks ago. Assuming they won't mobilize, perhaps talking about it so much is to scare the population of the prospect, so it swallows the withdrawal to say Feb24 borders more easily?

 

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

A tad more from russian TV. Again, I notice that "war" is being spoken about quite openly, which was a big no-no even a few weeks ago. Assuming they won't mobilize, perhaps talking about it so much is to scare the population of the prospect, so it swallows the withdrawal to say Feb24 borders more easily?

 

OMG, did he get the wrong script?  This dude actually said true things.  Holy moly the world is upside down.  No one even interrupted him, which is not normal for this show.  Now all the brainwashed will actually hear, on their own propaganda TV show, that UKR counteroffensive drove RU troops out of Kharkiv region and that there's massive manpower shortage.  Plus he states that mobilization would make economy worse and that there's not enough gear for the soldiers anyway.  He sound like Steve FFS.  

[DesertFox]

I guess NATO would love to have a closer look at this...

 

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

There needs to be a special prison in Ukraine run by crippled AZOV veterans, and the widows of fallen AZOV soldiers. These Russian "teachers" should be the first inmates.

Considering that Azov contains an incredible amount of historians and intellectuals (like not kidding, some university profs in there) - that would be fitting in more ways than one.

[Bulletpoint]

43 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Sorry for the OT. Couldn´t help it...

 

 

I think the funniest thing about this clip is that the pedestrians are only mildly worried and slightly inconvenienced about the threat of being decapitated by a drunk lunatic. It's Monty Python levels of absurdity.

Maybe they are used to him? Anybody who knows the context?

[Gpig]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the funniest thing about this clip is that the pedestrians are only mildly worried and slightly inconvenienced about the threat of being decapitated by a drunk lunatic. It's Monty Python levels of absurdity.

 

seems staged to me. Guy doesn't move like an authentic drunk. That first pedestrian's dodge feels like over acting, etc.

[photon]

I wonder what the captured equipment recycling system is like? For thinks like a modern BMP-3 taken intact, I imagine it makes it back to the front quickly. And there are workshops refitting other captured equipment in western Ukraine and Poland, right? Does NATO already have copies of all the Russian equipment, or would they want to "borrow" things like the EWAR vehicle for a bit before returning it to Ukranian service?

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Great, they will be well positioned to run a nasty insurgency.

It is not about tactical level capability - it won't matter if the "RU Nats" get laser guns at this point.  The Russians have failed at creating, projecting and employing a functioning operational military system.  The symptoms of this are:

- In Phase I - got bogged down and eventually collapsed on operation offence, frankly their best shot at actually winning this thing.  Noted shortfalls were logistics and ISR - e.g. the Russians had lobbed 2000 "precision" cruise missile systems by end March I believe, yet Ukraine still had 1) functioning transportation infrastructure and 2) functioning information structure.  That, and all the abandoned vehicles, this tell me that the entire system left of effect (remember this?)

Is not coherent, nor did it work.

- In Phase II, they abandoned manoeuvre and dislocation entirely, likely because they had too, and devolved back to literal WW1 levels of dumb-mass attrition...and it did not work.  The UA was hurt in some units/sectors, but freakin obviously not anywhere enough to weaken their operational system. The Russians decided to waste their remaining, and dwindling, supply of Deep Strike on terror strikes - likely a combination of incoherent doctrine,  dis-jointed C2 and crappy ISR.  Again operational offence = fail - they never reached their operational objectives in the Donbas after significant costs.

- In Phase III, we get to the real fun stuff.  First, I do not want to diminish the UA's accomplishments - not one bit, conducting a complex double operation 500+kms apart is really hard to do for any military, let alone one that basically had to mobilize to this level in 6 months. 

However, what is clear to me is that once again Russian ISR is crap - they could not see where the UA forces (Division apparently) were massing and last I checked even light vehicles need gas.  Second the Russian logistical system has been hammered so badly it probably can't tell which way is up right now - Oryx shows almost 200 engineering vehicles and 1549(!) lost logistical vehicles (a number that is freakishly high, but we know is lowballed as most strikes occurred well back from the front).  Just for reference an entire Soviet MRD had about 2000 logistical vehicles (count them:https://irp.fas.org/doddir/army/fm100-2-3.pdf).  So the RA has nearly lost an entire MR Divisions worth of logistics vehicles  - that we know about, and we also know their current BTG orgs are very light on log vehicles to begin with.  This does not count ammo dumps and whatever else got HIMARed. 

Then the RA got bounced between both ends of its ridonkulous frontage like a dirty tennis ball, getting smack at both ends and in the middle for good measure.  And then fell inward like a rotten garden shed and lost 3000 sq kms on what looks like at least 100+km frontage -  Russian operational defence = fail.

So at this point I do not care if the RA hires the freakin Sardaukar - if they cannot rebuild an entire operational military system en par with the UA's, they are done.     

You are right in general but in specific details it is not as clear cut as you stated.

• RU lost. RU lost even before the war started
• Despite this fact the war in Ukraine is still going on and it might turn to the worst
• As i said - we (me included) consistently underestimate RU Nat capability to prolong and male bloody any conflict they are involved in 

Let me give you an example of how you underestimated RU ISR capabilities

Quote

However, what is clear to me is that once again Russian ISR is crap - they could not see where the UA forces (Division apparently) were massing and last I checked even light vehicles need gas

What if I tell you RU Nats saw it weeks before it started?

Here is an example from 31-Aug 8 AM

Quote

Tonight, the Kharkiv direction was in an anxious expectation of the activation of the AFU on a wide sector of the front, but this did not happen and the enemy's successes turned out to be local.
At the same time, intelligence notes an unambiguous concentration of forces for conducting an offensive operation in certain directions.

This is from 30-Aug. Note Balaklya. 

Quote

Kharkiv region. The AFU has been accumulating equipment and manpower for the sixth day in the Balakley direction. Perhaps they are preparing a counteroffensive in this area. Perhaps in the direction of the Izum...

But actually, they noticed UKR preparations in Kharkiv direction at least one month before the offensive started: 

22-Jul

Quote

Ukrainian sources confirm our considerations.

Two directions have been chosen for the counteroffensive - Kherson (where it is important to break bridges and Kharkov, where it is easiest to strike.

7-Aug

Quote

Of course, we DO NOT CLAIM that the APU is preparing a large-scale offensive near Kharkov. We just announced that we see a certain strengthening of the AFU grouping in this area. It is also of interest that in some relatively quiet places some of the personnel were moved away from the front line to operational depth, people remained only in positions, and less in the homes of civilians. There is a local regrouping of units...

In addition, considering the entire Kharkiv direction, we should not forget that the APU has already made earlier attempts to break through towards Izyum from Chuguev in order to create a threat to our grouping hanging over Slavyansk.

Balaklya and Sukhi Yar are on the roads from Chuhuev to Izum. He basically described UKR offensive intent. 

You are telling me how bad RU ISR is while I was looking for a weeks at RU Nat writing - UKR are concentrating forces at Kharkiv direction for offensive most likely aimed at Izum. 

What if tomorrow RU Nats blow up Nuclear station. What if tomorrow you will have to fight them? What your estimations will be? That their ISR is crap? And what if it is not? What if they have a lot of civilian eyes looking at your every move? What's if they have Telegram based network of volunteer agents all over Ukraine? What if it is incompetence of RU MOD that mask their true HUMINT capabilities? 

Do not underestimate RU Nat ability to take lives of our boys if RU crap hits EU fan.  I cannot be there with boys but at least I try to warn you and others here not to dismiss RU Nat volunteers. It is their turf as well. They can and will surprise you.  

[Offshoot]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I think the funniest thing about this clip is that the pedestrians are only mildly worried and slightly inconvenienced about the threat of being decapitated by a drunk lunatic. It's Monty Python levels of absurdity.

Maybe they are used to him? Anybody who knows the context?

As funny as it is, it is from a TV/film set. Somewhere on Twitter someone posted a picture of him with a clapper board in front of his face but I can't find it now. But that is why the pedestrians aren't acting realistically.

EDIT: found it

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Offshoot

[Vet 0369]

17 hours ago, Fenris said:

Hey look... A tank with supporting infantry, that's new

 

Nope, that’s backwards. The video shows Infantry with a tank supporting them, which is exactly what the tank was originally conceived for!

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Offshoot said:

As funny as it is, it is from a TV/film set. Somewhere on Twitter someone posted a picture of him with a clapper board in front of his face but I can't find it now. But that is why the pedestrians aren't acting realistically.

Makes sense. I thought something was off. You don't walk calmly towards a guy like that and then in the last moment, you get surprised he nearly hits you.

[Grigb]

50 minutes ago, Huba said:

A tad more from russian TV. Again, I notice that "war" is being spoken about quite openly, which was a big no-no even a few weeks ago. Assuming they won't mobilize, perhaps talking about it so much is to scare the population of the prospect, so it swallows the withdrawal to say Feb24 borders more easily?

 

Indeed, there is a certain hardening of TV propagandist mood. But it is not clear why.