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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


Probus

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15 minutes ago, Taranis said:

If you see a white crossed vehicle, it's an Ukrainian one. 🇺🇦💪

If you see a white Z vehicle, it's a fleeing russian one. 🏳️🌳💥

And if you don't see anything... It's the 3AK counter-attack ! 😁🤦‍♂️😂

A clock moving forward: tik-tak
Russian army moving backward: tak-tik

(originally a German WW2 joke)

 

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41 minutes ago, sburke said:

geez, talk about just being plain stubborn or as Andy Dufresne might have said - obtuse.

No, we can forget it. Big Serge says it's all a trap....

https://bigserge.substack.com/p/ukraine-counterattacks

Ukraine cannot and will not reach meaningful objectives - what we call “operational depth” [where you begin to destroy his ability to sustain and deploy forces altogether] - and has in fact thrown much of its carefully crafted premium reserves into a dangerous position.... Ukraine will find itself in a good old fashioned shootout against an enemy with vastly superior firepower. 

It seems capturing the front commander, a bunch of supermodern air defence gear and all kinds of ammo dumps isn't operational enough or sumfink.

 

 

Edited by LongLeftFlank
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I believe the first (and minimal) objective is to ensure Kharkiv can never be threatened again. After that is to pursue the Russians as much as possible in order to not allow them to consolidate and regroup. So they will look for the weakest points and try to punch through and exploit the brittle Russian lines and their lack of depth in the region.

It will take a few days to weeks for the Russians to redeploy forces from possibly the Bakhmut axis to try and stop the offensive, so time is of the essence. Highly unlike the Ukrainians will stop at a set point, they will push as far as they can.

Edited by Calamine Waffles
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There seems to be a recurring pattern of people who live safely thousands of kilometers away from Russia telling people who live right next to it how they should feel and what they should do about Russians. People who have no personal experience and aren't (and never will be threatened) in any way chastising people who had to live with Russian terror for generations.

Their "just give Russians another chance" is other people's "our children born this year will face next war Russia starts as teenagers and adults". Sacrificing yourself for your humanist values is fine, but asking other people to sacrifice themselves (and their safety, their lives, their children's lives) for your values, while cushily living far away is very much not fine. It is easy to be a saint in Paradise, but don't put the same standard on those living in Hell.

And moreover, where were all these defenders of human rights when Bucha happened? Where will they be once we see more crimes against humanity in liberated territories? Why is it they always care more about protecting the bullies from vengeance than protecting the bullied from the bullies?

Because it almost feels like I'm hearing some people of the West (not necessarily in this thread, that's why am not quoting anyone) say "let's give Russians few more second changes and it's fine if they murder and rape and torture few hundred thousand Eastern Europeans while getting it right" and it is completely rotten attitude, opposite of being humane as it claims.

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5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

We don’t want Ukraine to overextend itself tho. That’s 100km in a week?

You have to remember that the density of forces involved on both sides is fairly small. It's more about being able to maintain cohesion and getting supplies through, almost like with maritime warfare and convoys. So you should not be worrying so much about "overextending" but more with maintaining lines of supply and knowing where your enemy's forces are or are not.

The Ukrainians are actually the safest when they are moving because then the poor Russian ISR will have a much, much harder time targeting them. The moment they stop for a prolonged period is when the Russians can start to bring their artillery etc. to bear.

Edited by Calamine Waffles
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