How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

RU reporter (Steshin) says that RU soldier (who was in Balakley encirclment and reported UKR breakthrough at Buhaevka) is not communicating for 24 hours

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, JonS said:

Kaliningrad as an independent nation is a bit of a non-starter, I think. The total popn is maybe 500k, and that is overwhelmingly Russian. Like, more than 70% Russian. Luxembourg is both more populous and more diverse. Luxembourg!

It's not big enough to sustain itself, and I doubt the population would want to anyway.

"Kaliningrad" (Königsberg) is nothing more than a sad reminder of the destruction of Eastern Prussia and Eastern Germany, one of the largest genocides in modern history. Kaliningrad can't be a nation. It's a war trophy. Divide the territory of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania and give the Russians the choice to live in freedom or leave.

 

[Grigb]

Anonymous ant-Putin (grain of salt) RU Highlander (from Kavkaz) reports:

Quote

Returning from the Kherson region on rotation, on vacation or because of injuries, servicemen of RF say that there is no longer enough water and fuel, that they are shooting the last shells and it is impossible to [survive] winter with such supplies. They talk about negotiations and a "gesture of goodwill" - [RU] needs to leave the right bank.

 

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

"Kaliningrad" (Königsberg) is nothing more than a sad reminder of the destruction of Eastern Prussia and Eastern Germany, one of the largest genocides in modern history. Kaliningrad can't be a nation. It's a war trophy. Divide the territory of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania and give the Russians the choice to live in freedom or leave.

 

Restored Hansa League AKA the EU. Look at the pickled herring all originated from a similar recipe. Trade in peace and play a robust game of soccer. Don't force strong healthy 19-year-old young men to kill each other. 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

"Kaliningrad" (Königsberg) is nothing more than a sad reminder of the destruction of Eastern Prussia and Eastern Germany, one of the largest genocides in modern history. Kaliningrad can't be a nation. It's a war trophy. Divide the territory of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania and give the Russians the choice to live in freedom or leave.

 

I understand what you're getting at, but maybe using 'genocide' in that specific context isn't your best play?

I also feel that stealing land from one country to give it to two others while evicting the legal occupants is probably not a great way to maintain the moral high ground or credibility.

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's Russia as it exists today

True, except that aside from Kaliningrad at least it's all contiguous.

Kalingrad and Novgorod wouldn't share a common border, would be separated by three other countries, and not have a sea LOC that wasn't dependent on the goodwill of several foreign powers.

[chuckdyke]

12 minutes ago, JonS said:

give the Russians the choice to live in freedom or leave.

Where did he say evict? I worked with Russians who took the opportunity to live in Australia as residents. If they want to become allied with Russia they would be advised to leave. I hope Ukraine after this war will have the same attitude. 

Edited September 9, 2022 by chuckdyke

[FancyCat]

I think one of the worst things the Russian military could do is just abandon, not sabotage, not destroy their ammo, their vehicles, their goddamn self-propelled artillery guns to be recovered by a enemy that literally speaks and understands your language and uses the same hardware as you do. There's a half decent chance those things might be firing at Kupyansk right now.

 

[Huba]

Here's a Rybar map. Keep in mind that these are always RU biased...

[FancyCat]

Confirmation Ukraine is in the middle of Shevchenkove.

 

[Mattias]

13 hours ago, riptides said:

Pontoon guy....

 

 

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 

Looking into the abyss and all that… 

[Letter from Prague]

I think Montenegro shows that smaller country with less than million of people that came from breakup of an empire can work in theory - with the difference being that Montenegro is beautiful while Kaliningrad is decaying, and Montenegro is full of people who want it to be a nation (and in EU) while Kaliningrad is full of Russians who got there as part of deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

So yeah, I don't see much hope.

But then, I know having continuous map of EU would look nice, but just like Finns say "why would we want Karelia back, the Russians have turned it into a crumbling ****hole full of Russians". Having ground painted your color doesn't really mean much in today's world, it's not like we're running of space in developed countries (just in cities) and infrastructure costs money. Unless the location itself is interesting (due to resources or some other stuff), it's kinda not worth it to expand like a 19th century empire in 21st century. (Thing Russia is doing wrong number 31773)

[The_MonkeyKing]

babushkas party on
 

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Mattias said:

Having seen the actual clip that the picture originates from, knowing that it is an image of a human being in a moment of absolute terror and anguish, I personally am revolted by its use in a meme. I know full well that my emotions are shaped by what might be described as the arrogance of a western comfort, but could we please refrain from going that much orc and refrain from posting gore here?
 

Looking into the abyss and all that… 

I get why some people may not be having revolting emotions since that "human being" killed, raped, looted and tortured other, real human beings, just only yesterday. So why not get terrified a bit because of the just consequences? Even then all he suffered is, unfortunately, just being shocked for a little while and, unfortunately, is probably still alive.

Edited September 9, 2022 by kraze

[The_MonkeyKing]

hmm

[Huba]

10 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

hmm

Looks better and better  In the meantime, Rybar reports about heavy shelling/ rocket strikes at Veliky Burluk - a key road/ rail junction northwest of Kupyansk. Any Russian counterattack/ reinforcements has to go through it.

[Letter from Prague]

45 minutes ago, kraze said:

I get why some people may not be having revolting emotions since that "human being" killed, raped, looted and tortured other, real human beings, just only yesterday. So why not get terrified a bit because of the just consequences? Even then all he suffered is, unfortunately, just being shocked for a little while and, unfortunately, is probably still alive.

Life protip: if you want to avoid anguish and terror of Ukrainians fighting you, do not invade their country!

[kevinkin]

39 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

with the difference being that Montenegro is beautiful while Kaliningrad is decaying, and Montenegro is full of people who want it to be a nation (and in EU) while Kaliningrad is full of Russians who got there as part of deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

So yeah, I don't see much hope.

I agree. But the geographic position of Kaliningrad can't be ignored. The people there need basic resources from somewhere if Russia is forced to de-militarize the area. (As they should be). A forward base is what Russia cares about. So if Russia washes their hands of Kaliningrad, the surrounding countries would probably step in over many years. I don't see Kaliningrad being vacated anytime soon. Although much smaller, Kaliningrad - like Ukraine - has a historically unlucky place on the map. The world is not going to stop over Kaliningrad. It's not so much about a clean map of Europe than it is cleaning up the mess Russians made of that section of the map. For a fraction of the money spent on the middle east, Kaliningrad might do pretty well. 

[Beleg85]

Nice.

ISW report suspects Ukrainians may take Kupyansk in 48h. If Russians indeed need to move reserves from the south by rail, one sabouteur maybe enught to derail entire effort for half a day.

Kots is sufling WWII heroic stories...poor brave Buba:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1568169750370320384/photo/1

 

Edited September 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

I am on the phone, so small update:

1. RU claim fighting for Kupyansk started. Girkin claims UKR reach Kupyansk from three directions: west, north west and south west

2. RU throwing reserves at Kupyansk. Claims nothing coming to Izum.

3. Balaklya was abandoned yesterday. RU survivors recoiled east and and fighting at settlements east of Balaklya preventing UKR from reaching Vessel crossroad.

4. UKR reached Oskil river and captured Senkove but did not succeed to cross the river

5. UKR recon and sabotage groups already operating around Oskil settlement (literally all around it)

6. UKR become active in many places but no major offensive south of Izum yet.

[Grigb]

1. Highway R-07 (from Schevchenkove til Hrushivka near Kypaunsk) under full UKR control.

2. Claim UKR are in 1-2 km from outskirts of Kupyansk, being hold by RU artillery

3. RU seems to be using units from Izum weakening front there.

 

 

[Grigb]

Khereson 

At Brdigheads looks like UKR reached Chakalovske. AFAIR it is last major settlement on the way of AFU. UKR recon teams operating beyond Chakalovske and at highway.

 

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Indeed more I think about it this has the potential of becoming a major headache for the Russians in the east. They might have to abandon dreams of Donbass liberation. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Khereson 

At Brdigheads looks like UKR reached Chakalovske. AFAIR it is last major settlement on the way of AFU. UKR recon teams operating beyond Chakalovske and at highway.

 

 

Seems certain Ukraine is going to secure the terrain all the way to the Oskil river. 

Time to start wondering about Velykyi Burluk and expanding towards the north and how totally the Izium "pocket" can be destroyed.

[Grigb]

From Rybar - there are initial reports that Oskil bridge in Kupyansk is hit/disabled. Veliky Burluk under heavy shelling. Maybe UKR indeed started expanding.