How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

A good friend of mine was part of a USMC M60 machine gun team in Viet Nam. He told me of an assault on a tree line they made across a rice paddy. By the time he reached the tree line, three-quarters of the gun team were down, and he was the last one left. In the tree line, the fighting was hand-to-hand. They were so close, that when he threw a grenade from his prone position, the NVA soldier pushed it back. I didn’t press him any further (I never asked him direct questions, just let him tell me what he was comfortable with telling me).

damn man - well he clearly survived.  Not something I'd wish anyone to go through.

I had an uncle who served in WW2 in the Ardennes.  He'd never discuss it but my father once told me he got buried in a trench from an arty strike.  Only story I ever got and very incomplete.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

I’m imagining this “3 AK” passing through multiple commands, each command stealing a part to plug a hole.

The ISW report from a couple of day or two ago makes it seem like that's what's happening.  At least to some extent.

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

A bunch of guys rushing in to arrest or isolate Putin, as was done to Gorbachev, is unlikely.  Kraze outlined the "safer" ways, but that takes time.  If someone decides there isn't time for that, then a bomb would do the job quite nicely.  Blow him up, blame a 12 year old Ukrainian kid and reassure the population that the new kids in town have got things under control.

Steve

Nah they have a new target to blame, stay focused.  

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Mines, F I hate mines.  Except when RU tanks try to 'rush' them for some crazy reason.  If UKR can advance w sufficient speed they can hopefully only face the minefields in the initial defense lines.  Hopefully RU won't have the time (or maybe supplies?) to keep putting new minefields in front of multiple fast moving advances.

[Calamine Waffles]

23 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

This concerns me a little. That offensive is called the 'Rzhev meat grinder' for a reason.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, my view is the same. Not enough discontent within regime for now to easily find contenders. And even if somebody will dare- he, his family and possibly friends may find themselves at the bottom of the Volga river. We didn't even see most brutal face of Putin's regime yet.

Yes, but that will always be the case, as it is with every challenge to a dictatorship.  Therefore, it's all about someone thinking they have a chance at succeeding.  History's graveyards have no shortage of who made the wrong call.  In fact, I fully expect the first overt (i.e. we know it happened) attempt to unseat Putin won't succeed.  Either Putin will survive and retaliate or it will initially succeed at removing Putin only to collapse after.

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Russia now did not received even 1% that punishment as Germany in 1944, including massive airstrikes and fatigue of whole population. There was also feel of existenstial treat not only to regime, but physically to the nation. Since modern Russians don't care about war in general, we are very far from that point, if we use historical analogies. We are still moving within regime bubble + narrow sections of society (nats and few liberals) who care.

You missed the part of the analogy that I was shooting for.  I'm not trying to compare the general populations or the amount of destruction between WW2 Germany and Russia.  As you say, they are not even in the same ballpark.  What I'm talking about is the conclusions that the people who might stage a coup are likely drawing from the situation.  I'll not bother to try again, but instead change tactics

Russia is in bad shape and overtly getting worse.  Sure, Russia's territory is untouched, but it's economy is in relative shambles and obviously still going down.  There is probably more tensions within Russia's regions than we are aware of, and we're aware tensions are mounting.  The population is largely complacent, however critical pockets (e.g. Moscow and St. Petersburg) are already showing themselves to be unhappy with the war.  However, it is the military situation that is most important.

Even the RU Nats know that the Russian military is in really bad shape with no signs of improvement.  More importantly, they believe the war is not winnable without full national mobilization.  Therefore, the RU Nats want full mobilization to start immediately so the war can be turned around and they can march through Ukraine and into Europe.  Only one man is standing in their way of that -> Putin.

The RU Nats live in a world that is mixed with reality and delusion.  They are in touch with reality enough to know that a tipping point is coming that will push victory out of reach even with full mobilization.  They will not wait until Russia is in ashes (figuratively) before they act.  They will also not sit through another frozen conflict as they felt the last one was a mistake.  They will instead try something before it gets that far, which is where they are delusional.  The tipping point was back in March and full mobilization even then probably wouldn't have worked even in the short term.  But they don't recognize that, so they are still acting as if they can make a difference.

Let me be clear... the RU Nats know time is not on their side, but they believe there is still time to turn the war around and crush the übermensch and their Western supporters.  Every day that Putin doesn't change his mind about full mobilization is a day the RU Nats know puts their dreams in additional jeopardy. Therefore, either Putin changes his mind very soon they will attempt to do it without him.

Do not confuse the practical chances of RU Nat success at regime change with their motivation to attempt it.

Steve

 

[sburke]

not sure of the source but supposedly resistance still active in mariupol.

Russian Soldiers Blown Up by Own Mines Responding to Fake Call: Official (msn.com)

[Battlefront.com]

I think we can all agree that the next phase of the Ukrainian offensive started today, yes?  I thought so

Steve

[chuckdyke]

Keep your fingers crossed. It all depends on correct intel. These guys know what they are doing.

 

[chuckdyke]

He spotted a YPR 765 an improved version of the M113 contrary to more modern IFV these are amphibious. Could be on par with the BMP-1. 

[JonS]

Well, this seems fairly definitive

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/30/zelenskiy-tells-russian-forces-to-flee-as-ukraine-counteroffensive-begins-in-kherson

Edited August 30, 2022 by JonS

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Do not confuse the practical chances of RU Nat success at regime change with their motivation to attempt it.

We misunderstood, because I was not even thinking about nats. If at all, the possible coup seems to be delivered by someone we called before "pragmatist"- people already close to power who don't like seeing what is happening, without specific idealistic agenda. Frankly, I even think that "liberals", i.e. pragmatists that are more western-oriented (and with access to possible contacts, money and know-how in for example economics ) would be better candidates than nationalists. And you are right that a lot of such technocrats happen to inhabitate around Barad-Dur Kremlin's walls in Moscow- which will matter greatly in case of such scenario.

Now, this all seems highly speculative right now. I see no nationalists in Putin's entourage; a lot of nasty personas for sure, but nationalism is sort of idealism. And this is commodity in extremely short supply in real Russian politics, i.e. among people who matter (of course I don't count D.Medvedev tsarist cosplay as anything more serious than a joke from a court clown). Unless we have some hidden serious, hardcore Russian nationalists at the Kremlin with means, audacity, near-suicidal convictions and a good plan, we will probably only observe slow, very slow rotting in Russian leadership.

Of course some crazy Great Rus followers in flanel shirts (yes, Girkin  -altough hard to tell if he still has mojo without moustaches) from outside officiall power structures could theoretically try to organize some kind of assassination, but they would be crushed within blink of an eye unless siloviki and military would suddenly turn from blob of conformist boot-lickers into super-devouted conspirationists willing to risk everything. I don't need to add that such dissappearance of both Kremlin's legitimacy and his practical agency does not seem probable now. With military defeats, maybe such notion will appear in some circles. But hard to tell now if they will be strong enough to try something serious.

Ok, maybe if Putin get a stroke but still be alive- then, with weak regency and subsequent power vacuum, some violent chaos is possible. Such scenario was much more frequent in Russian history than any effective revolutions or rebellions against central power.

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

You missed the part of the analogy that I was shooting for.  I'm not trying to compare the general populations or the amount of destruction between WW2 Germany and Russia.  As you say, they are not even in the same ballpark.  What I'm talking about is the conclusions that the people who might stage a coup are likely drawing from the situation. 

Yup, I know you mean something else. What I shot at was one crucial difference- populace is passive but accustomed to their tsar now, not enduring any special hardships; frankly, not touched almost at all. As long as they consume more or less uninterrupted, for probably something like 70% Russians war could as well not exist, at least for now. I really hope it will change soon, but to do so West would need to take much more serious sanctions/bans than what is now.

Now- does this work for or against coup? More below.

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russia is in bad shape and overtly getting worse.  Sure, Russia's territory is untouched, but it's economy is in relative shambles and only getting worse.  There is probably more tensions within Russia's regions than we are aware of, and we're aware tensions are mounting.  The population is largely complacent, however critical pockets (e.g. Moscow and St. Petersburg) are already showing themselves to be unhappy with the war.  However, it is the military situation that is most important.

Oh, I have no doubt you are right here- it is in worse and worse shape. However, it may take time before it seriously hits Russian economy at average consumer level. And even more time before he start to connect dots between Putin-his misery. Even then propaganda is powerful tool...About republics we talked in extenso before- possible source of discintent, but rather only after Kremlin authority (and probably Putin himself) vanishes.

Do military situations matter for ordinary Russians? I am inclined to think that probably less than people in the West assume. Yes, setbacks will have an effect. But it :1. Will be directed against advisors, as is already happening. 2. Will rather be limited to people already directly interested in Military Operation. There is a reason why they don't mobilize, after all. Now, living close to Mordor maybe I am simply too pessimistic about nature of RU society, but we should never assume that average Russian has a lot of agency over his life and views. He doesn't need it. It's a burden, hard to bear. Better not to stick the nose in not his business. And all of that. Anyway- military defeats are unpleasant, but no tragedy as long as borschtch is on the table.

Let's stop with general Russian population for a moment. Its legendary passivity and unwillingness to change is of course firmly grounded in Russian history. Why? Becuase things can get much much worse under new leadership (they certainly will if some nats come to power- which forms another coup-blocker ). Possible tsarist wannabies would need to seriously consider the Russians may be very very uncomfortable with them as soon as they take the throne. Putin's ratings are still very high- even after military defeats in Ukraine he is still considered stabilizer rather than looser. I mean C'mon, he washed their brains for two decades, there is entire generations that knows only Putin and nobody else in power - he is the most influential persona in Russian history from Stalinist times. It's very difficult to kill such mythos, even if it is still grounded on opportunistic gangsta rules.

Does this  fact works for or against possible palace cup? I think Russian population passivity works against such possibility for now. If you want to kill Putin, you would need not only to challange his apparatus (a fearsome perspective if failed) but also face possible people's discontent aftermath even if successfull. @kraze may be right here, unfortunatelly- Russians may be displeased, but even "liberals" are (usually) not crazy enough to want Putin's death.

And note we didn't even touched practicallities of killing Putin, which are complicated enough to scare away most potentiall contenders.

PS> It's always problem with historical analogies, historians' brains are wired to mark differences immediatelly.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[fireship4]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Movie from intense close (very close) combat from Pisky.

 

 

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There is longer version down the thread

Here it is below for those interested.  Without understanding the apparently Russian presenter, it looks to me like a piece on a battle they won (not surprising really).  No notable footage of the fighting itself seems to be missing.

https://nitter.net/200_zoka/status/1564229847580286976#m

Edited August 30, 2022 by fireship4

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 hour ago, chuckdyke said:

He spotted a YPR 765 an improved version of the M113 contrary to more modern IFV these are amphibious. Could be on par with the BMP-1. 

Eh... it's not great.

It's nickname is "glasbak" for it's similarity to an old fashion glass recycling container. The accompanying gag was that the latter was the more heavily armoured of the two. None with the 25mm cannon were delivered, just the one with the .50 cal "turret" minus the .50 cal.

Basically, when I saw that beautiful photograph from a few hours back, I got very nervous about the YPR sitting out in the open field. Wouldn't want to do that with the 25mm one, sure as heck don't do that with the one's lucky to even have a MG.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

We misunderstood, because I was not even thinking about nats. If at all, the possible coup seems to be delivered by someone we called before "pragmatist"- people already close to power who don't like seeing what is happening, without specific idealistic agenda. Frankly, I even think that "liberals", i.e. pragmatists that are more western-oriented (and with access to possible contacts, money and know-how in for example economics ) would be better candidates than nationalists. And you are right that a lot of such technocrats happen to inhabitate around Barad-Dur Kremlin's walls in Moscow- which will matter greatly in case of such scenario.

Now, this all seems highly speculative right now. I see no nationalists in Putin's entourage; a lot of nasty personas for sure, but nationalism is sort of idealism. And this is commodity in extremely short supply in real Russian politics, i.e. among people who matter (of course I don't count D.Medvedev tsarist cosplay as anything more serious than a joke from a court clown). Unless we have some hidden serious, hardcore Russian nationalists at the Kremlin with means, audacity, near-suicidal convictions and a good plan, we will probably only observe slow, very slow rotting in Russian leadership.

Of course some crazy Great Rus followers in flanel shirts (yes, Girkin  -altough hard to tell if he still has mojo without moustaches) from outside officiall power structures could theoretically try to organize some kind of assassination, but they would be crushed within blink of an eye unless siloviki and military would suddenly turn from blob of conformist boot-lickers into super-devouted conspirationists willing to risk everything. I don't need to add that such dissappearance of both Kremlin's legitimacy and his practical agency does not seem probable now. With military defeats, maybe such notion will appear in some circles. But hard to tell now if they will be strong enough to try something serious.

Ok, maybe if Putin get a stroke but still be alive- then, with weak regency and subsequent power vacuum, some violent chaos is possible. Such scenario was much more frequent in Russian history than any effective revolutions or rebellions against central power.

Yup, I know you mean something else. What I shot at was one crucial difference- populace is passive but accustomed to their tsar now, not enduring any special hardships; frankly, not touched almost at all. As long as they consume more or less uninterrupted, for probably something like 70% Russians war could as well not exist, at least for now. I really hope it will change soon, but to do so West would need to take much more serious sanctions/bans than what is now.

Now- does this work for or against coup? More below.

Oh, I have no doubt you are right here- it is in worse and worse shape. However, it may take time before it seriously hits Russian economy at average consumer level. And even more time before he start to connect dots between Putin-his misery. Even then propaganda is powerful tool...About republics we talked in extenso before- possible source of discintent, but rather only after Kremlin authority (and probably Putin himself) vanishes.

Let's stop with general Russian population for a moment. Its legendary passivity and unwillingness to change is of course firmly grounded in Russian history. Why? Becuase things can get much much worse under new leadership (they certainly will if some nats come to power- which forms another coup-blocker ). Possible tsarist wannabies would need to seriously consider the Russians may be very very uncomfortable with them as soon as they take the throne. Putin's ratings are still very high- even after military defeats in Ukraine he is still considered stabilizer rather than looser. I mean C'mon, he washed their brains for two decades, there is entire generations that knows only Putin and nobody else in power - he is the most influential persona in Russian history from Stalinist times. It's very difficult to kill such mythos, even if it is still grounded on opportunistic gangsta rules.

Does this  fact works for or against possible palace cup? I think Russian population passivity works against such possibility for now. If you want to kill Putin, you would need not only to challange his apparatus (a fearsome perspective if failed) but also face possible people's discontent aftermath even if successfull. @kraze may be right here, unfortunatelly- Russians may be displeased, but even "liberals" are (usually) not crazy enough to want Putin's death.

And note we didn't even touched practicallities of killing Putin, which are complicated enough to scare away most potentiall contenders.

PS> It's always problem with historical analogies, historians' brains are wired to mark differences immediatelly.

If we are going to speculate about a Putin-ending coup, then look for the kind of folks who would be near (but prudently not right at) the forefront of any attempt to change the power structure. In other words, pay attention to guys like Dmitri Patrushev: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Patrushev

Yes, he's the son of the Nikolai Patrushev at Putin's side. He has an FSB education/background, very strong contacts across government and his own fairly extensive following within the governing bureaucracy. He has feet in multiple camps and a rep for sobriety and getting things done. And better yet, he's not at all tainted by the war. He didn't help start it, he didn't misjudge what would happen when it did and he hasn't been dragged into it as it continues. There are others out there like him but he's a guy you can safely put on your coup fantasy league team.  

 

[chuckdyke]

32 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I got very nervous about the YPR sitting out in the open field. Wouldn't want to do that with the 25mm one, sure as heck don't do that with the one's lucky to even have a MG.

It is attrition warfare and you need pawns to win a game of chess. The Russians know that too and he maybe saver than you think. Or how do we know that anybody is in your 'Glasbak'?

Edited August 30, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If we are going to speculate about a Putin-ending coup, then look for the kind of folks who would be near (but prudently not right at) the forefront of any attempt to change the power structure. In other words, pay attention to guys like Dmitri Patrushev: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Patrushev

Yes, he's the son of the Nikolai Patrushev at Putin's side. He has an FSB education/background, very strong contacts across government and his own fairly extensive following within the governing bureaucracy. He has feet in multiple camps and a rep for sobriety and getting things done. And better yet, he's not at all tainted by the war. He didn't help start it, he didn't misjudge what would happen when it did and he hasn't been dragged into it as it continues. There are others out there like him but he's a guy you can safely put on your coup fantasy league team.  

His father is very firmly in, though (Putin prudently has it on tape, and Patrushev was probably one of main spiritus movens for war), so family connections could work against him. But you are right that such people (there are more) could be interested in change of power at Kremlin. Properly (=" Westernly") educated, but locally connected. Hawks, but rather not nationalists. And definitelly cold opportunists much more than dreamers.

Of course Putin (again prudently) do not put his own security in the hands of any big players. Various agencies like FSO, run by his close friend Zolotov (who, according to believeable rumours, is "too stupid to betray") guard him in overlapping manner. Btw. Zolotov is also close friend to Kadyrov- very interesting connections; we discussed earlier the possible issue of Chechens serving as pretorians for regime if really dark scenario become reality.

Edited August 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[LongLeftFlank]

10 hours ago, akd said:

Said to be from offensive ops in the Kherson direction (YPR-765s):

Whose grass mod are you using?

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

"Better lucky than good". People has low expectation on our supreme leader's intelligence level, we all know he got his elementary school diploma a while ago(that's a secret joke in China) .

But the chosen one has good luck, Putler took the lead of the formation and hit the minefield, so the chosen one has enough time to change his mind.  And when we look through the history record, we would find out "Winnie the Pooh" throw away a lot of bicycles (another joke)...

From Luttwak's twitter: Shanghai Media Group reporter uploaded a poem

"To the Cicada"

It’s only every five years*  / 

That you emerge from the nether world /

And all you can do is to use your ass /

To sing a song of praise in the summer.

 

* reference to the Party Congress

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

There is longer version down the thread, it seems they forced UA to withdraw. It was from Russia Today, so probably cut appropriately to not show Russian losess.

It is Bridge Republic, one of two Bridges. So far it stands. RU does not claim they capture either Seeds station (in front of BR) or BR itself.

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So RU TV viewers are showing battle over some rubble in Pisky and it would be presented as a great victory.  

They actually managed to present it as Great victory there twice. 

[Grigb]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

@kraze may be right here, unfortunatelly- Russians may be displeased, but even "liberals" are (usually) not crazy enough to want Putin's death.

This part needs some clarifying. The elite liberals (for example May that was arrested recently and AFAIR released soon after), the part that made unwritten pact with Putin are certainly afraid of his death and RU Nat rise to power or general chaos with wide spread violence from RU Nats. But apart from that every liberal wants him dead, preferably from natural causes. He is literally destroying liberals lifes and dragging country into liberal's worse nightmare.

Frankly, speaking I believe 2/3 of the country wants him dead because he zaebal [F-word] everybody except his close servants. But that passivity means 2/3 will do nothing unless something happens.

Here I should stress that all who supports war have belief that Europe and Ukraine will freeze to death due to gas prices. So, basically the pin all their hopes not only on war situation but on EU and Ukraine supposed disastrous situation during fall and winter season. What's gonna happen if this scenario will not materialize? 

Sorry, cannot comment any further. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

Small update on situation:

• Generally, news are from the beginning of the night
• RU claim that some RU regulars units (not DPR mobiks) moved back for regrouping and reinforcing. But apart from that nothing
• Confusion remains - RU claims UKR reached Kiselevka (to the south from Posad-Poskorvke on Mykolaev-Kherson road) but RU pushed back to Soldatske. But Soldatske supposed to be under RU and there is video from Kisilevka with not much happening there (could be different Kisilevka due to RU reporter confusion).
• In Visokopilly and Olhino RU units still were fire blocked by UKR (UKR holds their retreat path under fire)
• Kherson and Nova Kahovra were hit hard at night
• As of last reports from yesterday (I am keep up with RU nats post while writing here) Seed station in Pisky still stands but RU got smarter and calls it our glorious troops are fighting in Pervomaiske village (village next to Pisky).

Edited August 30, 2022 by Grigb

[LongLeftFlank]

30 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Small update on situation:

• Generally, news are from the beginning of the night
• RU claim that some RU regulars units (not DPR mobiks) moved back for regrouping and reinforcing. But apart from that nothing
• Confusion remains - RU claims UKR reached Kiselevka (to the south from Posad-Poskorvke on Mykolaev-Kherson road) but RU pushed back to Soldatske. But Soldatske supposed to be under RU and there is video from Kisilevka with not much happening there (could be different Kisilevka due to RU reporter confusion).
• In Visokopilly and Olhino RU units still were fire blocked by UKR (UKR holds their retreat path under fire)
• Kherson and Nova Kahovra were hit hard at night
• As of last reports from yesterday (I am keep up with RU nats post while writing here) Seed station in Pisky still stands but RU got smarter and calls it our glorious troops are fighting in Pervomaiske village (village next to Pisky).

Hmm, worth requoting a Girkin quote from one of your terrific maps:

6 months of the large-scale phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war have passed... and it has degenerated into a small-scale one...

The enemy continues to attack, but already on the scale of a bridge over an irrigation canal, the intersection of secondary roads.... At this rate, a certain time will pass and they will begin to attack individual landmarks with "all available forces" -- a ditch, a standing tree alone or some broken barn in Bogorodichny.

...That cuts both ways of course [/genuflects and spits]

Is Strelkov hopping on the 'Frozen Conflict' bandwagon?

(apologies to all dads with daughters)