How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Very interesting news of our General Staff: "The enemy has conducted an attempt to improve of tactical posiotion near Staryi Karavan village, hasn't success and withdrew"

This village is on the eastrn side of Siverskyi Donets river on Lyman direction. There was no official information about any UKR movements in that direction, except the info of volunteer Yuriy Biriukov, which wrote in FB on 14th of Aug, that "AFU libereated a village in Donetsk oblast". He uploaded photos from liberated village with captured ATGMs and Z-marked mini-bus and small video in commnents, where UKR squad encountered Russian positions in the house and began to do outflank maneuver:  https://www.facebook.com/yuri.biriukov/posts/pfbid0CRULFz5EY92Hwe6jtunnpAJ6eVDr2Q2UM38yEF8i3eGfEF1MNKderWvESSJMiMkUl 

People quickly geolocated this video as filmed in Brusivka village across the Siverskyi Donets. But no further info since this time neither official, nor in twitters or TG. Looks like some SOF or volunteer units seized bridghead in Brusivka and UKR forces has been trying to expand bridghead to advance to Lyman. Since capable Russian forces of Eastern Military District moved all to South, Russians lost some ground on Izium axis and Lyman direction became completely quiet. Looks like some "oblast volunteer battalions" or something like this defended this area (but I can be wrong), so UKR troops could launch some local operation in this area. Lets see for developments...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

the stated original RUS "primary" objective of the whole war is still stated as,  functionally, forced regime change. 

Oh, for sure the stated objectives have shifted quite a bit since the war started, however the central part of it was the Donbas.  From a messaging standpoint regime change was a way to secure the Donbas' happy future.  As the war has gone worse and worse for Russia this central theme, the Donbas, has remained constant even as the rest are buried.

Nice twist on my ship analogy

Steve

[Grigb]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Interesting detail. Still, planning the assassination take weeks, and as far as I know, after searching for some latest Dugin texts, he wasn't that much criticizing Kremlin. Especially compared with all girkinoids around. Plus, like most russian nats, they usually directly critique advisors, not Putin himself. Anyway, the most mysterious thing for me in whole issue is not even who made the killings, but why him/his daughter.

The post is not the cause itself, at least due to timing. But it hints that Dugin was already doing something or was involved in something besides the Kremlin. So, he felt empowered to say bold statements. 

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Plausibly the GRU had Vovk on payroll thinking she was working for the GUR or SBU and not Russia.  The GRU sent her to the conference ostensibly to "keep an eye on our enemy" and might have even suggested she take her daughter to help with her cover.  GRU agents did the bombing and after they told her to get out of the country right away and that going back the way she came was unsafe.  They then provided her some license plates and and directed her to the Estonian crossing.  They either tipped off the FSB or figured the FSB was at least competent enough to pick up the trail the GRU so clearly left for them to find.

Yes, it's all speculative... but it ties everything we know together without any one element being implausible.  In fact, when you step back and look at what I just wrote... it's actually a very simple plot.

Somebody definitely helped her get across the border between UKR and RU. But I think the GRU plans for here after assasination were different/bigger, yet FSB became upset and spoiled the fun finding her quickly. So, GRU had to get her out earlier. Maybe that's why the whole thing is a confusing mess - we only saw one part of the show.

 

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, this scenario is quite possible. But she could even know what she was doing; Ukrainian extreme right was thoroughly penetrated by russian intelligence before 2014 and well past it, finding some UA citizen who was past participant in local right-wing initiatives (like Azov movement before restructurization) and Great-Rus follower at the same time would be a piece of cake for them. So regular GRU asset could as well be used by the "top" and than "burnt" by FSB as revenge, for example. This would be quite optimistic scenario from our perspective; if both services are turning against each other in violent way, it may ba a signal something is seriously brewing up.

There are rumors that her first husband was DPR separatist. So, indeed she could know for whom she was working. And I agree if they started pissing on each other so openly it is not good for RU.

[Vet 0369]

On 8/24/2022 at 1:06 PM, Huba said:

And on top of that  Boris Johnson who was in Kyiv today promised:

Edit: this supposedly included loitering munitions as well, with purely recon drones count at 500.

 

And for some hilarious trolling, UA hacked some radio stations in Crimea today, blasting Ukrainian patriotic sounds. Looks on the people faces are really telling - some are confused or outright scared, but many smile:

 

Excellent! The video also seems to highlight that the population is under constant surveillance since the speakers seem to have video cameras, unless someone stuck up a hybrid camera/speaker.

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Hmm, well I know nothing of the good retired Gen but I am sure he has his own calculus upon which to base his opinion.

Personally, given the data and information I can see, the Russian military system is sick.  The devolution in tactics, the loss of anything that resembles operational offensive - they never really came out of the "pause", and them now dancing to Ukraine's tunes around Kherson are all symptoms.  Right along with reports of low morale, poor support, flailing targeting and other indicators of system failures (e.g. baffling suicidal OPSEC violations) point to an eroding Russian military system.  Russian option spaces have shrunk to the point that it appears all they have left are WMDs, "holding on" and tactical nibbling - they appear to have exhausted all others, if they have another gear they should have dropped into it back in Jun.

Of course Russia can lose, any nation can lose a war...I think we have demonstrated this enough times.  I suppose the question is "how much is enough?"

All war is negotiation - and sacrifice.

So in these sorts of things definitions become incredibly important.  "Russia cannot lose" - what does that actually mean?  Because by any political or strategic goals metrics, it already has lost this war. 

From a selfish western perspective, stepping back, one could argue that 'we' have gained-

- Ukraine - there is no other end-state to this thing other than Ukraine in the UE and NATO - Putin and his cronies can quack and blather but that ship sailed after March.

- Finland and Sweden.

- NATO defence spending commitments for the next decade.

- A clear demonstration to the globe that we are willing to defend the current global order to any and all revisionist states (kinda) - we have re-established a certainty.

Our opponent, on the other hand, has gained about what 60-80k sq kms of destroyed, largely empty countryside? [Aside: no there is not mountains of resources in the area they control, we covered that one already]  A crushing economic trajectory that will put them in the 3rd world if it goes on long enough.  A Europe that is literally re-wiring themselves away from Russia's one trump card.  A pretty much destroyed military - in both physical and more importantly psychological domains.  And a historic loss of global influence and credibility that will haunt them for the rest of the century.

Doesn't look too bad on paper...however, it leaves a nasty unresolved feeling doesn't it?  The single largest problem is that we in the west have never defined our war goals, our strategic and political endstates.  We went from "oh crap, ok so let's figure out how to support an insurgency", to "oh crap, ok so let's how to support a defence", to now, "oh, crap, let's figure out how to support an offence".  We have been stuck on, "let's make sure Ukraine doesn't lose" that we never figured out what it means to ensure that "we win...enough."  The west's victory is directly tied to Ukraine's outcomes in this war - all stop.  So what does that look like?

I have opinions but it is really up to our political leaders to lead and determine what "that" is, or is not.  The absence of this is apparent in a lot of the narratives such as Gen Dannatt's where we are very nervous about a run-away war in intensity or duration - especially duration because we have all had our fingers burned recently.

I think the impulse to re-establish certainty is overpowering, particularly within the large establishments of power such as government and militaries - they are the very definition of positive capability. Russia as a scary global power was a certainty, people built entire careers on it, trillions spent on defence for it.  The global order as we knew it, another enormous certainty, we built everything on it.  This entire war has been one enormous global uncertainty, and it is offensive to our sense of order - there are parts of the world where this sort of behaviour is expected, Europe was not one of them.

So victory is directly tied to "how much certainty is enough?"  And here is the thing, victory does not simply 'happen', which is very disconcerting trend I am seeing in the west - Ukraine+snazy weapons and support = "victory happens"...what it is not happening fast enough....happen faster!....hmm, maybe they should negotiate....

Victory is work, it is built, it is earned.  And we are back to sacrifice.  If we cannot define what we want, we cannot define what we are willing to spend to get it - which makes our negotiation position largely in the blind - more an act of faith and hope than a deliberate extension of collective human will to re-assert our certainty.  

I guess my question back to Gen Dannatt (with respect) and the mass of the mandarinate ( @LongLeftFlank that is a brilliant word btw) - "What is our certainty?" "What are we willing to lose?"  Until someone can answer that, then we really have no idea if this war is worth the continued effort from a western interests point of view.

Personally, I think that if we keep doing this for a decade, it will be time and money better spent than other adventures that were far less central to our certainty - but "how much?!", "how long?!"

https://watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/figures/2021/human-and-budgetary-costs-date-us-war-afghanistan-2001-2022

But what about the "recession" and my gas prices?!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–2008

My advice - we are in this thing until Russia is back in their box and we have a gang of thugs in power we can actually do business with - we will then risk manage that train wreck of a nation, we have dealt with worse.  We are in it until Ukraine is re-built into a shining example of what western national building really means.  We are in it until we can demonstrate what western collective resolve looks like for the rest of the world into the 21st century, and that while we may have to renegotiate what world order looks like, my grandkids will damn well have their hands on that pen.

But I am just some guy on the internet.  

 

 

Very well summarized. You nail something: lots of people have an opinion about where this war is or isn't going but only the pessimists have a sense of certainty about how it will end up. My optimistic answer to that is that this war will end positively for the West (and the world) when Russia has been forced to sue for peace and negotiate a reasonable settlement with Kyiv. No other outcome is worth even what we've invested so far or the fallout from the perception and reality of a Russia victory. 

[Grigb]

Discussing RU Nats waning interest in in military situation I decided to update Pisky map. Because it is the best battle to show RU current offensive capabilities - in couple of days it will be full month they have been fighting there.

Discussion:

1. RU reached Church position and captured southern part by late 2-Aug
2. They broke into main urban position around 12-Aug pushing UKR to Northwest outskirts 
3.  They pushed UKR out of Northwest outskirts by around 16-Aug and declared Victory
4. As of now they are still trying to capture Seeds station to proceed to Bridge Republic
5. Also, after a weeks of local attacks against Anthill they are preparing for a full attack soon

It is about 3 km distance. If I am not mistaken, they are fighting for 29 days. So, 100 meters per day.

[UPDATE] Important thing to consider - while they can demolish anything on their path but the path itself is very narrow. The whole month they focused mostly on Pisky, only shelling Bridge Republic and looks like mostly ignoring Anthill.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Grigb

[Ultradave]

Some more about the power plant. Russia seems more likely to cause a problem through stupidity or ignorance than through malice (IMO)

Dave

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-94-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

[pavel.k]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Fresh Girkin post 

Discussion:

• Girkin seems uninterested in military situations. Comparing with old military posts current ones are short and much less informative. All the while he writes useless for us political posts about SMO in general.
• Agent Murz is also became quiet. He found somewhere French grenade and that's it.
• Interestingly, another DPR fighter and self-made RU propagandist Tatarsky [pen name] recently disappeared from front line and appeared today at another end of RU in Vladivostok city. The guy loves victory PR stunts at front line (He was first from propagandists who appeared at Pisky Cowshed). But not now...

Thank you, very interesting. So RU Nats seem to be tamed now. But for how long? All their unreleased hate will explode one day, I guess.

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Discussing RU Nats waning interest in in military situation I decided to update Pisky map. Because it is the best battle to show RU current offensive capabilities - in couple of days it will be full month they have been fighting there.

Discussion:

1. RU reached Church position and captured southern part by late 2-Aug
2. They broke into main urban position around 12-Aug pushing UKR to Northwest outskirts 
3.  They pushed UKR out of Northwest outskirts by around 16-Aug and declared Victory
4. As of now they are still trying to capture Seeds station to proceed to Bridge Republic
5. Also, after a weeks of local attacks against Anthill they are preparing for a full attack soon

It is about 3 km distance. If I am not mistaken, they are fighting for 29 days. So, 100 meters per day.

[UPDATE] Important thing to consider - while they can demolish anything on their path but the path itself is very narrow. The whole month they focused mostly on Pisky, only shelling Bridge Republic and looks like mostly ignoring Anthill.

About Opytne - DPR troops some days ago used UR-77 charge for assaulting unnamed "UKR strongpoint" near this village. Their assault after this strike was successful, so according our unofficial reports, DPR troops either approached close to Opytne, or even seized it south-eastern part. Looks like this attack was from Spartak settlement.

[sburke]

20 minutes ago, pavel.k said:

Thank you, very interesting. So RU Nats seem to be tamed now. But for how long? All their unreleased hate will explode one day, I guess.

In all likelihood they would have just made the situation worse.  Yeah, they might be quiet, but quiet doesn't mean they have stopped.  If anything, this could convince elements that removal of the current leadership is the only option and make them susceptible to being used by other forces opposed to Putin.

When the mobsters are stirred up and unhappy with their current capo, they start looking for options to change the management structure.  Watching the situation in Moscow is like watching a season of the Sopranos.

[Haiduk]

Ukrainian M113s 

What vehicle appeared on 0:06? 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

On 8/24/2022 at 1:46 PM, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  The amount of resources that go into protecting that tank could go towards something better.  The more resources that are needed, the more likely it is that there's a better investment elsewhere.  Failing to understand the point of diminishing returns on a particular concept leads to "brilliant" ideas like this:

I believe that the issue with modern armor is “mission creep.” Armor was always envisioned as support for the Infantry, but IMHO, the Generals who employed the armored units fell into the “political” trap of wanting to expand their “empires” by claiming that Armor is crucial to the attack so they could increase the size of their force and have more influence in Headquarters. Folks have referenced Patton’s Third Army was Infantry centric with Armor supporting the Infantry attack. Armor was used like the flamethrower teams, identify a need, follow a cleared path, get out of harms way when the identified threat was reduced. Patton was a Cavalry officer, so he always highlighted his “Cavalry units (I.e. armor) over the Infantry, so it gave an inaccurate picture of the 3rd Army’s actual battle record. Use Armor as it was originally conceived to support the Infantry mission by reducing enemy strong points and providing protection for the infantryman from one enemy “Cavalry,” and you won’t be losing all those expensive toys.
 

Compare the historical uses of Armor by the U.S. Army and the USMC. To the best of my knowledge, the USMC never used armor to “lead” the attack, because they have no “tradition” of Cavalry. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

...Anyway, the most mysterious thing for me in whole issue is not even who made the killings, but why him/his daughter.

Do you @Grigb think that somebody could hit at Malofieiev this way, like some of his personal enemies? Seems odd and excessively brutal act even for Russian conditions, but we still cannot exclude infighting between trusted Kremlin oligarchs. That would fit Putin- "let buldoggs fight under the carpet, till it is me who throw them bones".

In my opinion Malofeev hit is unlikely. She wasn't his relative so her death would not cause any real pain to him. As a result, as message to him it's counterproductive as it shows - we are too afraid of you to cause you real pain.

However, that got me thinking - what's if she was his lover? I mean - young daughter and cool (for RU Nat) looking rich friend of father...

Let's look at the photo from the event - she is not with her father. She is with...

 

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Seems odd and excessively brutal act even for Russian conditions, but we still cannot exclude infighting between trusted Kremlin oligarchs. That would fit Putin- "let buldoggs fight under the carpet, till it is me who throw them bones".

It is excessively brutal except for FSB, GRU and probably oligarchs close to Putin like Prigozhin. For these guys it is normal if loyalty is the main issue. Or it was Malofieiev wife - while it is too complicated for love triangle murder, we must not forget that sometimes wifes have powerful fathers who could be really pissed off at another woman.

Edited August 25, 2022 by Grigb

[Hapless]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Sultan Command Vehicle or Samaritan Ambulance. British CVRT variant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combat_Vehicle_Reconnaissance_(Tracked)

[Grigb]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About Opytne - DPR troops some days ago used UR-77 charge for assaulting unnamed "UKR strongpoint" near this village. Their assault after this strike was successful, so according our unofficial reports, DPR troops either approached close to Opytne, or even seized it south-eastern part. Looks like this attack was from Spartak settlement.

Most likely it was Zenit position aka old base of AD unit. The story about the unnamed strongpoint taken after UR-77 charge appeared simultaneously with claims of Zenit capture. Also, according to recent RU Nats discussions claims of Opytne outskirts capture are premature. Unfortunately, I have back log of posts. So, if they captured the outskirts yesterday or today, I might miss it.

[sburke]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian M113s 

What vehicle appeared on 0:06? 

we need M113 in Black Sea!!!  

[Haiduk]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Most likely it was Zenit position aka old base of AD unit. The story about the unnamed strongpoint taken after UR-77 charge appeared simultaneously with claims of Zenit capture.

Russians wrote they approached to "former AD unit" (Zenit). This is fortified position, famous since 2015, and it losing would be have huge resonanse in UKR social media. But nothing of this happened. On the satellite map is visible some position between Spartak and SE part of Opytne 

No, this was several days ago, not today or yestarday

Edited August 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[hcrof]

51 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Ukrainian M113s 

What vehicle appeared on 0:06? 

Have we seen any m113s in combat? Or are they equipping a fresh unit that hasn't been committed yet?

[Huba]

30 minutes ago, sburke said:

we need M113 in Black Sea!!!  

No, you need The Gavin 

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Have we seen any m113s in combat? Or are they equipping a fresh unit that hasn't been committed yet?

There were several videos of M113 in frontline zone, moving on the roads, but no combat video with them. I even can't say what units equipped with them.

[Haiduk]

Under powerlines - too risky...

 

[Splinty]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

No, you need The Gavin 

Please no 

[Grigb]

30 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians wrote they approached to "former AD unit" (Zenit). This is fortified position, famous since 2015, and it losing would be have huge resonanse in UKR social media. But nothing of this happened. On the satellite map is visible some position between Spartak and SE part of Opytne 

No, this was several days ago, not today or yestarday

I digged some more and it looks like you are right - it was not Zenit. Good!

[Grigb]

New Kherson map using Mashkovets post. Siversk part I will put tomorrow.

 

[Kinophile]

An M113 shouldn't be near anything more dangerous than a paintball gun. 

Edited August 25, 2022 by Kinophile