How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BlackMoria]

My suggestion - all Russian visitors are subject to a obligatory customs and document check after a four hour wait, and a strip and body cavity search.  

Russia called the tune.  Time to pay the piper on this one.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

So why that factory, assuming it is not random Russia doing Russian things?

Is it one of the last in the west producing certain WP calibre tubes or artillery ammo? I know Romania is one of a select few still churning out shells for that. Albania fits my mental image of nations that still might, too.

Edited August 20, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[billbindc]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Strange choice if one wants to put down Russian nationalists. Even Dugin himself would be strange choice; he is second-row ideologian and probably appeal only to a bunch of old ladies and religious freaks form Tsargrad. He was rather far from more practical, militaristic nationalists like Strielkov. Their circle (centred around oligarch Konstantin Malofieiev) of course maximally support war and view Putin as half-saviour. They all should generally feel safe in Russia.

Targeted assassinations are rare within nationalistic political circles, unless somebody has business ties with wrong persons. And killing women is considered passe even by gangsters in Russia.

Unfortunately they almost 100% blame Ukrainians. But as a false flag it is strange choice also, not enough to incite rage in wider population. So i would vote for now for some more private business killings targeted at Dugin.

A pitty Grigb is off now, this death will shake Russian right-wingers.

All of that plus I'd add that if it is a piece of private work it still is indicative of something. Losing wars loosen the rules in a place like Russia. Players in the influence/oligarch game sense that the folks upstream in the power structure don't have the bandwidth to manage them as intensively...or to punish them for transgressions. Scores are easier to settle 'privately' and useful scapegoats (in this case, the Ukrainian intelligence services) are easy to blame. It is a portent.

Edited August 20, 2022 by billbindc

[FancyCat]

 

 

[sburke]

49 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I concur.  This smacks more of a settling of affairs between rival power groups than a targeted Ukrainian sanctioned assassination.     There is bigger fish to fry than this tadpole from a Ukrainian point of view.

and not worth risking possible assets in Moscow that could do this.

[BlackMoria]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Possibly.... I grant that.    But so called Russian visitors sniffing around a arms factory (not sure if was abandoned or not) and spraying some chemical agent in the face of security/police stopping them to ask what they are doing is pushing the concept of 'innocent'.  But lets see how this plays out.

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, billbindc said:

All of that plus I'd add that if it is a piece of private work it still is indicative of something. Losing wars loosen the rules in a place like Russia. Players in the influence/oligarch game sense that the folks upstream in the power structure don't have the bandwidth to manage them as intensively...or to punish them for transgressions. Scores are easier to settle 'privately' and useful scapegoats (in this case, the Ukrainian intelligence services) are easy to blame. It is a portent.

But the main issue stays- we could expect assasination on Strielkov (he pissed off enough powerful people), maybe some grudging veterans from Donbas...but on Dugin or his daughter? "Tsargrad" circles are close to Orthodox church and Russian academia much more than barracks, neo-nazi clubs or similar places. They are traditionalists-conservatists, loyal to Kremlin. Not normally people playing political games of this magnitude to shoot them off.

Even if military circles wanted to send message to nats not to raise their head too high, they had literally dozens more logical targets.

Edited August 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But the main issue stays- we could expect assasination on Strielkov (he pissed off enough powerful people), maybe some grudging veterans from Donbas...but on Dugin or his daughter? "Tsargrad" circles are close to Orthodox church and Russian academia much more than barracks, neo-nazi clubs or similar places. Not normally people playing political games of this magnitude to shoot them off.

Even if military circles wanted to send message to nats not to raise their head too high, they had literally dozens more logical targets.

 

They are all gangsters, so maybe this is just gangland warfare.  And as was mentioned in a post above , there's lots of jockeying for position in whatever comes next.   So could be something big or just another murder in the organized crime world known as russian society.

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But the main issue stays- we could expect assasination on Strielkov (he pissed off enough powerful people), maybe some grudging veterans from Donbas...but on Dugin or his daughter? "Tsargrad" circles are close to Orthodox church and Russian academia much more than barracks, neo-nazi clubs or similar places. They are traditionalists-conservatists, loyal to Kremlin. Not normally people playing political games of this magnitude to shoot them off.

Even if military circles wanted to send message to nats not to raise their head too high, they had literally dozens more logical targets.

The lack of an obvious logic to the hit and the overkill employed is exactly what I think is portentous. That we can't see the former is a very strong argument for this being a dispute of a private nature...either over money or influence. That the dispute resolution mechanism was a highly violent and possibly mistargeted one suggests that there is a perception that controls are slipping. Russia in 1917 was a largely peasant society in a revolutionary state...and reacted accordingly. Russia in 2020 is a mafia kleptocracy in an economic crisis. In that latter condition you don't see worker's soviets popping up...you see score settling and violent scrambling to secure resources.  

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The lack of an obvious logic to the hit and the overkill employed is exactly what I think is portentous. That we can't see the former is a very strong argument for this being a dispute of a private nature...either over money or influence. That the dispute resolution mechanism was a highly violent and possibly mistargeted one suggests that there is a perception that controls are slipping. Russia in 1917 was a largely peasant society in a revolutionary state...and reacted accordingly. Russia in 2020 is a mafia kleptocracy in an economic crisis. In that latter condition you don't see worker's soviets popping up...you see score settling and violent scrambling to secure resources.  

Ok, mafia- style of settling the score is true for oligarchs, large business, oil tycoons, Chechens, former militaries, maybe former FSB/GRU. But not for collection of rogue priests, devout emerits and fake cossacks. There are no special resources to fight for here.

Also from what I know Dugin's role in laying foundations for "Special Operation" is much overblown. So simple revenge motiff by disillusioned Tsar also seems odd. But who knows? We certainly can't trust Russian investigators, can't we?

 

[DesertFox]

You can´t make this up, can you?

 

 

[billbindc]

23 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, mafia- style of settling the score is true for oligarchs, large business, oil tycoons, Chechens, former militaries, maybe former FSB/GRU. But not for collection of rogue priests, devout emerits and fake cossacks. There are no special resources to fight for here.

Also from what I know Dugin's role in laying foundations for "Special Operation" is much overblown. So simple revenge motiff by disillusioned Tsar also seems odd. But who knows? We certainly can't trust Russian investigators, can't we?

 

I agree that the Dugins, père et fille are (or were) not big movers and shakers. My point is that the remoras are starting to fight over the scraps because the shark has other things on its mind. 

Edited August 21, 2022 by billbindc

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Oh look another one confirmed. Lt. Col. Sergey Koval, Deputy Chief of Staff - Head of Operations Division, 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division was indeed HIMARS'd on the 9th of July as previously rumored:

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by akd

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I agree that the Dugins, père et fille are (or were) not big movers and shakers. My point is that the remoras are starting to fight over the scraps because the shark has other things on its mind. 

.... or are now reduced to feeding on a warm patch of water behind the shark.

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Oh look another one confirmed. Lt. Col. Sergey Koval, Deputy Chief of Staff - Head of Operations Division, 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division was indeed HIMARS'd on the 9th of July as previously rumored:

 

Ha, now just waiting on confirmation of this one and we'll call it a trifecta Lt-Col Gordeev, the Divisions artillery chief

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

So why that factory, assuming it is not random Russia doing Russian things?

Is it one of the last in the west producing certain WP calibre tubes or artillery ammo? I know Romania is one of a select few still churning out shells for that. Albania fits my mental image of nations that still might, too.

... or WELCOME TO ALBANIA: YOUR CAR IS HERE ALREADY

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, mafia- style of settling the score is true for oligarchs, large business, oil tycoons, Chechens, former militaries, maybe former FSB/GRU. But not for collection of rogue priests, devout emerits and fake cossacks. There are no special resources to fight for here.

Also from what I know Dugin's role in laying foundations for "Special Operation" is much overblown. So simple revenge motiff by disillusioned Tsar also seems odd. But who knows? We certainly can't trust Russian investigators, can't we?

 

In Putin Russia, Score settle YOU!

Galeev has been a little scattershot lately, but he does make a relevant point here:

... 

 

TL:DR  All cards can go wild in extremis. Especially in Russia, where an economy/polity 'demodernised' itself twice within the last 100+ years.

Even shorter:  for Kremlinologists, GIGO

***

P.S.  Remember the Skripals and any number of other minor players for whom the 'punishment' did not seem to fit the crime, at least by any rationale rational people might use....

“‘Who ever heard of Moscow Rules in the middle of bloody Hampstead anyway?’ Strickland asked, waving out the match.

‘Bloody Hampstead is right,’ Smiley said quietly.”

Edited August 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[chris talpas]

4 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

 

Actually I think it would be hilarious if the US gave them a ton of MALD-Js and use the A-10 purely as a MALD platform to troll the Russians.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-10-warthogs-tusks-are-being-sharpened-for-a-high-end-fight

Actually that and the HARM armed Migs is starting to look a good SEAD tag team especially if the A10 is armed with JASSM standoff missiles as well

[sburke]

As Attacks Mount in Crimea, Kremlin Faces Rising Domestic Pressures (msn.com)

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Given Russia's proven incompetence in, well, everything, it is possible Neither Dugin was the target. The event they were attended was full of various bad actors, the target could have been any of them.

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 hours ago, Huba said:

This has an Article 5 escalation potential... 

We have precedent on Russia poisoning people and blowing up ammo storages in NATO countries. With minimal response. 

[paxromana]

33 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

We have precedent on Russia poisoning people and blowing up ammo storages in NATO countries. With minimal response. 

Well, yes ... but that was when there was still a hope that the USSR (and, later, Russia) was still run by semi-reasonable people and was mostly abiding by the generally accepted rules of the 'great game' ...

Now? When some NATO members are chomping at the bit?

Less clear cut.

Edited August 21, 2022 by paxromana

[kraze]

9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Now,  I'm very ignorant of Air, in general, buuuut.... A10 would be a good fit for for UKR,no?

Tactically oriented platform,  combat proven and perfectly designed to slaughter SOV vehicles in a contested air space.

I mean, This is the war it was born to fight. 

RUS doesn't have air dominance, so tactical UKR A2AD could provide attack corridors,  HIMARS et could suppress RUS SAMs, although not Iglas etc.  

It also feels like a lower, entry rung on the way up the Air ladder to NATO level SEAD and 4-5th Gen air platforms.  

Running ops in contested tactical air space is something UKR Air Control already has experience in, so "plugging in"  a better Frogfoot would give them starter experience with NATO platforms, systems and procedures, without the organizational complexity, massive tech requirements and systems upgrades that 4th gen+ air frames need. 

Thoughts..? 

That's the whole point.

[kraze]

7 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

My suggestion - all Russian visitors are subject to a obligatory customs and document check after a four hour wait, and a strip and body cavity search.  

Russia called the tune.  Time to pay the piper on this one.

Not letting them in is a much better and simpler solution. Not to mention safer, in the long run too.

They'll have the rest of the planet to tourrorize anyway.