LongLeftFlank Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) Interesting 30 minute grunt level memoir from a volunteer squaddie who fought in Irpin and Bucha. He went home in March, but he did his bit. Edited August 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, womble said: Sheer, unadulterated class 1 trolling of the Russians. The best thing is, they had to *bring* the wrecks because no Russian armour got anywhere near... Yup, when comes to info/psyops/meme warfare Ukraine is lecturing at the masterclass. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Not sure what the above picture is showing? Is it satellite dropping a bomb? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Holien said: Not sure what the above picture is showing? Is it satellite dropping a bomb? Yes, in a manner of small quadrocopters dropping granades. It mocks some paranoid Russian channels that claimed the satellite bought by Ukraine can have unknown ability to conduct invisible strikes far behind Russians lines (installed, ofc, by perfiduous Americans). Which would serve Russians propaganda to justify ineffectivness of their own military in protecting Cimea. Effects of today's strike on Black Sea Fleet Command. Predictably, not much of a destruction is visible. Edited August 20, 2022 by Beleg85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) Destroying of Russian 1L260 Zoopark-1M counter battery complex (1L259 radar vehicle on MTLB base and 1I30 maintenance vehicle on Ural base). Zaporizhzhia oblast Interesting, that first hit was directly at antenna - maybe HARM, and then artillery strike. But mayby all explosions have one origin - HIMARS by coordinates? Upd. Too short for HARM Edited August 20, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elmar Bijlsma Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Please tell me that slow ass drone isn't what is really been striking Crimea all along. If THAT is what gets past Russian air defence, the Russians should try turning on all their electric razors during an attack! After the first month or two I thought we would start seeing them getting their **** together. But here we are, and their stupidity keeps finding new and interesting ways to make their army look like clowns. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 25 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said: After the first month or two I thought we would start seeing them getting their **** together. But here we are, and their stupidity keeps finding new and interesting ways to make their army look like clowns. We do in some way seeing them adapting: previously during oil rafinery attack they philosophically contemplated "whose that drone is it?" while it simply slowly flew past them. Now they joyously shoot in the air with their AK's like on Kurdish wedding. So they are adapting. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 15 hours ago, Beleg85 said: Damn, Ithe pain of being 3 pages late catches on me. I hope this video of turret spacelaunch will make you more happy ) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) Collapse Watch, episode ____ 1. https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738 With the exodus of some 1,000 global companies, Russia has lost companies that represent some 40% of gross domestic product, according to the study.... In the longer run, Russia's economy will become more primitive as it partially decouples from international trade, it said. To avoid social tensions, the government will intervene to support Russian businesses, leading to more protectionism and a larger state footprint in the economy. 2. More data (June): https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sanctions-russia-after-four-months The existing sanctions, especially export controls, may contribute to favorable military outcome for Ukraine by weakening Russia’s ability to resupply its forces. But ultimately, this is a war, and the road to a settlement probably goes through the battlefield. 3. Counterpoint? Not really, just more bluster: https://fortune.com/2022/07/30/russia-is-skirting-sanctions-quite-successfully-meet-the-architect-of-putins-economic-counterattack/ As some powerful Kremlin players have pushed for reasserting state control over the economy, Oreshkin has fought back, so far successfully. “Russia is not going to abandon the market economy,” Oreshkin said in reply to questions from Bloomberg. “On the contrary, it’s moving in the opposite direction. Private initiative is now especially encouraged. This is constantly noted by the president in his speeches.” Blyat blyat blyat.... 4. Moscow does not believe in stats [interesting piece by a Navalny aligned ex minister]... https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ Russia has greatly reduced the transparency of its economy, stopping to publish some vital statistics and corporate data.... data on budget spending became classified. This made it significantly harder to assess the effects of sanctions.... We also don’t know the real ruble exchange rate – which is vital for ...an economy heavily dependent on international trade, including mass imports of goods and critical intermediary components for manufacturing. ...food prices growth is higher than the overall consumer inflation, and undercounting its share reduces the overall inflation estimates. Russian enterprises are accustomed to using various tricky forms of work suspension without laying off workers (reduced working hours, temporary downtime, etc.), which distorts the overall picture of unemployment Russia will receive much less [energy] profits from the Asian market. For instance, in April-June, the average price of Russian Urals oil blend was about $36 per barrel below Brent average – whereas transporting the oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports is significantly more costly. The infrastructure aimed at exporting natural gas from Western Siberia, the main gas producing region in Russia, to Asia is simply nonexistent, and will take hundreds of billions of dollars (and years) to build. 5. For those interested, by the same author, skepticism on a Russia-China entente (Nov 2021): https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/ambitions-dashed-why-sino-russian-economic-cooperation-is-not-working/?amp=1 **** All that said, I remain concerned that Xi's China is / will take targeted measures that prolong the war (e.g. quietly sending certain arms, kit or other manufactures Russia can't make for itself), simply because he sees keeping Russia in the fight as a way to bloody the US nose without a direct confrontation. If American resolve weakens after the midterms, that will seriously damage US standing in the world, to China's benefit. I am not saying that will happen -- in fact I doubt it -- or that Chinese aid *can* in fact materially prop up Putin. But it's what Xi thinks that matters, and a price will be paid in Ukrainian lives. Edited August 20, 2022 by LongLeftFlank 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 14 hours ago, DesertFox said: Could be a Harm missile in action Putin's invaders find themselves increasingly in HARMs way. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) @LongLeftFlank don't know how China bloodies US nose in this war. Minimal amount of US weaponry destroyed (some 777s), no military personnel in-country and no platforms destroyed, or likely to be. Maybe diplomatically? But even then, US wins as long as RUS is losing men, machines and soon, occupied territory, plus it can practically (not morally) walk away any point. To have any impact on US standing via a vis this war, China would have to step in and functionally do for RUS what NATO is doing for UKR - but from the other side of the world, with far less motivated "local" forces and an utterly corrupt and incompetent local partner, without a global basing network, a strategic level air force, capable allies and a stable political system that can adjust and absorb the shocks of a war. US did that three times (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan), spent possibly a trillion dollars in total and might finally have learned the lesson. Maybe. Xi is not an idiot, and Ukraine is not where China can cause US any harm at a useful scale, in any format. Edited August 20, 2022 by Kinophile 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 The trillions time. Chornobaevka airport. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
womble Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 26 minutes ago, Kinophile said: US did that three times (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghan), spent possibly a trillion dollars in total and might finally have learned the lesson. Maybe. And they did "that" with at least some of the elements you mention that the CCP doesn't have available to it (to a greater or lesser degree in each case, but always more than China would have vis a vis supporting RUS in their misadventure right now). And they did it once "successfully" in Korea, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/IzToC?s=lZrHK_PhUC0 someone has done some real work graphing Russian losses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 During the day several cases of Russian AD work in Crimea: 1. Bakhchisaray district - reportedly three explosions in the air near Verkhorichchia (rus.Verkhorechye) village. Strange place, because if drone should be strike ammunition dumps and flew from NW, then it flew 5 km further. There are two ammo dumps here - one in the old caves, other on open place near Kudrino village nearby to Verkhorichchia. Fragments of something - either destroyed UAV, or missile. 2. Yevpatoriya area - Zaozerne and Moloche villages. Several launches during the day 3. Cape Tarkhankut area (western Crimea), Olenivka village (rus.Yelenovka). Big SAM site placed NW not far from from Olenivka 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 42 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://datastudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a/page/IzToC?s=lZrHK_PhUC0 someone has done some real work graphing Russian losses. Wow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 For Russia to be so badly hampered by lack of infantry and APCs you really need to believe those higher casualty estimates rather than the lower ones. The estimated 10K dead, bandied about on the board a couple months ago, Russia would have been able to shrug off without much effort. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 https://time.com/6207115/ukraine-train-fighter-pilots-russia/ Either brilliant or crazy, can't quite decide... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 (edited) 32 minutes ago, MikeyD said: For Russia to be so badly hampered by lack of infantry and APCs you really need to believe those higher casualty estimates rather than the lower ones. The estimated 10K dead, bandied about on the board a couple months ago, Russia would have been able to shrug off without much effort. Lack of infantry appears not only in 30-60% of companies headcount. Russian forces suffered lack in number of tactical units for huge lenghth of front. Numerous volunteer battalions, establishing in Russian oblasts are more suitable for "second line" service or on minor directions. But even they have been suffering losses so far. Russia has been forming strategical reserve - 3rd Army Corps in Mulino, but couldn't recruit 100 % of need personnel from reservists and volunteers and was forced to begin of transfering of Corps units to frontline now. Also in Belgorod oblast Russian operative reserve - 144th MRD almost of full-strength was deployed long time without movement. This caused anxiety, Russians keep this division for offensive on Kharkiv, but now this division already "unpacked" too and its first BTGs went to front. So, "unpacking" by Russians own strategical and opertive reserves shows they really have a lack of infantry even for defense of seized territories Edited August 20, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 6 hours ago, Haiduk said: Destroying of Russian 1L260 Zoopark-1M counter battery complex (1L259 radar vehicle on MTLB base and 1I30 maintenance vehicle on Ural base). Zaporizhzhia oblast Interesting, that first hit was directly at antenna - maybe HARM, and then artillery strike. But mayby all explosions have one origin - HIMARS by coordinates? Upd. Too short for HARM Probably 6x Excaliburs set to airburst (but bursting at different heights because of trees / equipment). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 @sburke Major Andrey Meshcheriakov, SOBR police detachmnet of Khabarovsk region. Got lost on 25th of May 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 Third night in a row: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 8 minutes ago, Huba said: Third night in a row: There is an opinion that they are trying to shoot down a new Ukrainian satellite, bought with donations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSBoxer Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 39 minutes ago, dan/california said: https://time.com/6207115/ukraine-train-fighter-pilots-russia/ Either brilliant or crazy, can't quite decide... Hopeful, might be the proper term. If UK has more pilots than airframes it makes sense to at least familiarize them on potential aircraft. Set up a few computers and download DCS and you can put them in the virtual cockpit of almost any military aircraft you choose. DCS is not good enough to get a rookie ready for combat, but if the pilot has some experience it will get them much closer, quickly and safely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted August 20, 2022 Share Posted August 20, 2022 36 minutes ago, akd said: Probably 6x Excaliburs set to airburst (but bursting at different heights because of trees / equipment). Someone did NOT want to hear from that piece of equipment again to give it six guided rounds on the first go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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