How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

So with everyone agreeing that counteroffensive is not happening, what is going to happen then? Will Ukraine just wait for the Russians to leave, while HIMARSing them continuously and watching people in occupied areas suffer?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

So with everyone agreeing that counteroffensive is not happening, what is going to happen then? Will Ukraine just wait for the Russians to leave, while HIMARSing them continuously and watching people in occupied areas suffer?

I wouldn't agree that it is not happening. But I am also not saying the opposite. I am agnostic on this matter atm.

I see the fog of war is clearly too thick to say much. Like Koffman just says "it is contingent".

Maybe Ukraine attacks successfully (or not), Maybe Russia attacks successfully (or not) or both sides just wait and see.

[Huba]

Exactly that, we don't have a clear enough visibility on force ratios I think. UA is pushing already, albeit not very hard. It is shaping the battlefield at least. RU would be inclined to do their own offensive from the political POV, but I think is no able to really do that much - the more they try, the more they will lose.

[Holien]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The rivers are still crossed with an endless supply of pontoons,

Hmmm I dispute this - there is never an endless supply!!

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The concentration of Russian forces almost corresponds to the forces concentrated in the capture of Kiev

Hmmm again nope... The forces do not match in anyway as they have become depleted and worn down...

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Could it be that Russia is now taking advantage of Ukraine's inability to equip new mechanized brigades with armored vehicles in the southern direction?

Hmmmm nope again, unless he has direct information from the Ukr high command how does he know this... in fact Ukr have posted a video of a tank force moving about in the open in column so video evidence to disprove this. I would like to know his source?

 

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Increasing Russia's forces may have other significance than the (non-existent) major attack from Ukraine!

 

Hmmm just because it has not happened yet does not make it non-existent. I will agree to this statement at the end of the year if no attack is made.

It took from end of 1943 to June 44 to launch the planned offensive in Normandy and in fact the build up of forces started in 41 so things do take time and to say non-existent attack means nothing in the timeframe we are currently looking at...

There is a lot of work to do to give maximum chance of success and the reduction of the Russian AA units is just one part of that...

 

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Maybe right now, before the rasputitsa, the Russians could strike in the south and that's why the concentration of troops!

Ahhh OK well he might be right here the Russians might attack but that I think would be good news for Ukr.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Holien

[Grigb]

Interesting post from RU propagandist. He is trying to explain why UKR society does not believe RU propaganda. He ended up perfectly explaining the mental sickness of RU society and provided a perfect example of projecting your own psychological issues onto other people. [I replaced UKR with RU].

Quote

He [RU person] perceives [only] pleasant information, automatically not noticing the one that carries a negative message. RU throw thoughts out of their heads that their relatives and acquaintances in military uniforms are the real executioners and murderers. It turns out that they themselves want Putin and Soloviev to lie to them. It's quieter to live this way. They are typical subpassionaries (according to L. Gumilev).

A terrible conclusion suggests itself. The RU Armed Forces are killing UKR civilians with rockets, shells and mines because they [UKR civilians] are carriers of annoying information, an example of that it is possible, and it is allowed to live differently [for RU speaking people].

The "echo chamber" connected to the subpassional element is a terrible phenomenon. Any atrocities born in her womb will be understood, justified and even glorified. And we need to be clear about with whom and with what we are dealing.

And we need to be clear about with whom and with what we are dealing.

[Huba]

I just read a very interesting interview with Russian, Moscow-based sociologist. I really recommend the read if you have the time for it. Few more interesting quotes:

About what was and is the plan for the war:

Quote

That’s how they got to the point where they needed a war, but they didn’t want the kind of war that’s happening now. The idea was to have a short fight, proclaim victory, and then manage the transition the way they wanted. After the process is finished, maybe the next president handles reconciliation with the West.

They were 100 percent sure that everything in Ukraine would collapse within twenty-four hours. Maybe the plan could have worked in 2014, but it didn’t work in 2022. They failed.

Quote

That’s exactly the problem: there is no plan. They know they made a terrible mistake and that it may be fatal, and that’s about it. The fact that there was a mistake is unacceptable for Putin and his team. The government never recognizes a failure publicly or even informally, but without recognizing there was a mistake you can’t move forward. No strategy can be developed.

About the mobilization:

Quote

I think the army is running out of steam. The deliveries of Western equipment are changing the military situation very seriously. It is very much like the Crimean War, when the British and French had superior weapons. If you speak to people close to the Russian military establishment, they’re extremely worried and sometimes even panicking.

I think if there are more defeats in Ukraine, then, well, something will happen. I don’t know what, but some dramatic events are going to take place. I’m not saying they’re going to launch a coup, because that’s very much outside the Russian military tradition, but they can intervene in one way or another.

If you speak to people close to the Russian military establishment, they’re extremely worried and sometimes even panicking.
If they try to launch a general mobilization, or they expand the draft to new categories, then we’ll get a rebellion. We don’t know what the exact reaction will be, but it will be extremely negative.

 Some issues I take with what he says is that:

1) Talk about social-democratic/ progressive groups having any meaning sounds like ivory tower wishful thinking

2) Ukraine is hardly mentioned, he still sounds like RU nationalist, just with different ideas about how Russia should be great

And of course the site is "The Jacobin" so to warn everyone:

"TANKIE SITE AHEAD, YOU ARE ENTERING AT YOUR OWN PERIL!", even though it is worth it:

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/russia-ukraine-war-media-public-apolitical-vladimir-putin

 @Grigb if you'd want to spend a momend reading this, I'd be especially interested in your opinion.

Edited August 8, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

"Destroyed civilian tanks and vehicles that were caught in heavy fighting are gathered in a field in Mariupol, August 7, 2022. AP"

[Holien]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

. I really recommend the read if you have the time for it

Yep an interesting insight well worth a read. Thanks 

[womble]

2 hours ago, Holien said:

Hmmm again nope... The forces do not match in anyway as they have become depleted and worn down...

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Not to mention that they didn't capture Kiev, so why would they be meeting with greater success now they're not conducting a "surprise attack" and UKR is mobilised and has even greater Western material support?

Sure, it's always wise to retain a cautious thread to your assessments, but this does seem overly pessimistic, beyond the point of "reasonable restraint", for someone who orter know.

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

I just read a very interesting interview with Russian, Moscow-based sociologist. I really recommend the read if you have the time for it. Few more interesting quotes:

About what was and is the plan for the war:

About the mobilization:

 Some issues I take with what he says is that:

1) Talk about social-democratic/ progressive groups having any meaning sound's like ivory tower wishful thinking

2) Ukraine is hardly mentioned there, he still sounds like RU nationalist, just with different ideas about how Russia should be great

And of course the site is "The Jacobin" so to warn everyone:

"TANKIE SITE AHEAD, YOU ARE ENTERING AT YOUR OWN PERIL!", even though it is worth it:

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/russia-ukraine-war-media-public-apolitical-vladimir-putin

 @Grigb if you'd want to spend a momend reading this, I'd be especially interested in your opinion.

Good article. I strongly recommend reading. You just need to understand that he is left wing activist though dissident. As result his position could be defined as Centris with leaning toward Liberals (do not compare with US liberals). That's why you see definite RU Nats tones.

So, generally I support what he says. I can argue about some things. But it is good to read them anyway because I can be wrong - he is there, I am here.

There is one thing I would like to discuss based on what he says.

When RU society is going to become politically active (Cooker explodes). 

He says: What’s important is having your family life intact, then you can tolerate the rest. That is the answer about RU society inactivity - everybody tries to preserve family life intact, and nothing will happen while it is still possible. But once it would not longer be possible things will move fast. His quote:

Quote

The problem is, it’s not going to continue like that indefinitely. The war is going to affect your family, your work, and even your pets. And once it begins affecting people’s private lives, things can change immediately. I think resistance could start mounting very fast once the government does something that affects the lives of families. That’s why they haven’t openly declared war.

The question is when will RU people not be able to preserve families lifes intact? We can try to link it to dates or to conditions

Dates

• Liberals were waiting for August initially. Now for August-September - they believe this is when RU economy will tank.
• Nationalists are waiting September-October - they believe cold will knock sense into EU forcing EU to abandon UKR. it's their last straw. One it's broken it should affect greatly their morale.

Conditions 

• Death of Putin - too much hinges on him. Once he is gone a lot of things will set in motion.
• RU Serious Economic Crisis. But we need to understand that RU economic crisis in RU starts not when it starts but when it is widely reported and discussed.  When there is word on the street that RU economy collapsing (regardless of actual collapse) it could be the last straw for many men who wants to continue to feed families.
• RU Humiliating Defeat in the battle - the same thing as with Economic Crisis - when there is word on the street that RU army collapsed (regardless of actual collapse) many men would want to change a lot of things.
• Mobilization - you cannot preserve the life of your family when RU gov wants to use you as cannon fodder.

Separate condition

I am putting this condition as way for myself to get out of my comfort zone and think through a scenario that I myself do not consider as likely (I do believe in UKR decisive victory), but it could still happen.

• Stalemate - without significant offensive victories on both sides and without significant changes in RU economy, the static fighting will last well into winter. The thing is the areas of two Donbass offensives are in extremely bad shape. There is a reason why UKR are evacuating people. RU currently boast they will restore everything. Given RU corruption and incompetence it is possible that it will end up in huge humanitarian disaster. It will force a serious political crisis in RU that Kremlin will not be able to ignore.

[Grigb]

12 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Hillarious story. Wonder what was military police rationale...maybe they wanted a small bribe?

No, it is a typical RU story. So-called watchment/janitor syndrome - the type of behavior in which a person abuses his insignificant amount of rights and powers.

RU society evolves around bullying and humiliation of those who are lower you. Imagine a man from lowest social circles (who is by definition is the most bullied man in RU society) goes to army and after few years gets ultimate power over somebody else.

He just enjoys the feeling of power he has over the drivers. That is it.  

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/great-expectations-the-next-phase-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/

latest "it is highly contingent" from Koffman.

I tend to agree with him that the situation is too hard to read to state any outcomes as a "fact" from the outside.

[Grigb]

RU Nats are discussing RU attempts at catching up UKR saboteur group that run around Kursk region with mortar for whole week.

Quote

News from the Kursk region on the capture of saboteurs. The very ones who fired at the military airfield of Halino (still a mortar, as we said), blew up the power line tower, and went for a walk through the forests and ravines. 

So, they were localized. They were squeezed in the Rylsky district, and now [RU]  are combing the area. This was reported to us by subscribers of the channel, from among the local residents. The fact is that citizens raised a panic after hearing the shooting, and began to call all authorities. There they were asked to remain calm, but did not explain the reasons for the "fireworks". But already on the spot, the situation was outlined by the gloomy guys from the special forces, telling in detail what is happening and why.
According to the latest data, one saboteur has already been caught. Seems there is no our losses (tfu-tfu) [sound of double spitting for luck]. And we can hope that soon the group will be neutralized in full.

But then org. conclusions should follow. How exactly did they get across the border? What was the reason for this in terms of the positioning of the forces of the border guards? Why did [they] run around calmly for a week, and how did they carry a mortar?

There are a lot of questions.

I have question as well - do UKR even know they send sabouter group to RU? 

[Grigb]

I am parsing through the back log of RU Nats posts. So, I think I am going to post a few posts today. Sorry, for spamming but it is just due to weekend time off. 

It looks like RU is planning a false flag attack on Crimean bridge. I think the same channel posted British plan on attack of Olenivka (UKR POW center) sometime before the actual RU false flag attack happened. Now British are at it again! 

Quote

The scenario of a strike on the Crimean bridge.

Information was received from sources in Ochakov and Chernomorsk that a specific scenario of a strike on the Crimean Bridge from the sea is under discussion.

The plan (most likely British) provides for the use of a merchant vessel with a Ukrainian crew (an ordinary team is used in the dark), which is used as a carrier of strike weapons - an anti-ship or cruise missile launcher, possibly a container type (examples from Chinese and Iranian experience are in the photo, there are similar projects in Israel for the Lora missile system).

The idea of a possible operation is expressed in the following. A Ukrainian vessel (possibly under the flag of the 3rd country) leaving Odessa passes through the Bosphorus, is unloaded as part of a grain deal, and then in one of the European ports (for example, in Cyprus in Limassol from the British Air Force base in Akrotiri, where there is a large airfield for the delivery of such cargo) loads a container or a missile launcher installations (as an alternative, boats with explosives or UAVs can be considered) and teams of operatives, most likely NATO officers. Then the ship returns to the Black Sea with a conditional cargo to Trabzon or Batumi, without being checked under the grain transaction. During the voyage, having guessed the period of bad weather and acting at night, the ship makes a detour towards the Crimean Bridge and launches missiles at the target designation of NATO reconnaissance aircraft regularly operating in the Black Sea + using possible options for "highlighting" the object on the ground from the agents of the GUR MOU [Recon directorate of UKR GS]. After the launches, the crew is removed on a motor boat and leaves the launch site, and the vessel returns to the destination, where the installation is removed from the vessel and transported to one of the NATO bases in Georgia. It is impossible to exclude the possibility of loading the installation/container on the territory of Turkey.

It is unlikely that such an attack will cause critical damage to the bridge, but here the emphasis is on the media effect of hitting an important object bypassing the air defense systems of the pending strikes from the Zaporozhye direction.

Oh, well, those cunning British!

• Baldrick: "I have a plan, sir."
• Blackadder: "Really, Baldrick? A cunning and subtle one?"
• Baldrick: "Yes, sir."
• Blackadder: "As cunning as a fox who's just been appointed Professor of Cunning at Oxford University?"

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats are discussing RU attempts at catching up UKR saboteur group that run around Kursk region with mortar for whole week.

I have question as well - do UKR even know they send sabouter group to RU? 

100% Ukraine's government is sending units into Russia, I believe there was a article or two floating around in the Times? on spec ops units entering Russia proper to scout. 

The best thing Russia could do is a offensive, allowing Ukraine to more easily damage Russian units and logistics, sapping their strength. If Ukraine is getting more and more advanced NATO weaponry, I strongly feel that the best way to use them is with a eye towards eliminating Russia's ability to operate freely, if AGM-88s are being given to Ukraine, by all means, cancel the offensive and focus on eliminating the S-300s and their radar capability. 

My only hope is getting Kherson recaptured before the winter, I still that would be best for keeping UKR morale up, and causing chaos in Russia and occupied regions. Whether its possible, who knows. 

[Huba]

@Grigb one more request if you don't mind. There's some info popping up about RU actually preparing ZPP for demolition. It sounds insane, but... 
It is the closest to the original source about it I managed to find, would you mind taking a look?

 

[riptides]

5 hours ago, chrisl said:

I've pissed off birds before.

They not only bear a grudge, but manage to communicate it to all other members of the same species.  

Don't piss off birds.

Birds aren't real.

https://birdsarentreal.com/

 

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Given RU corruption and incompetence it is possible that it will end up in huge humanitarian disaster. It will force a serious political crisis in RU that Kremlin will not be able to ignore.

The Kremlin has historically had a vast, vast ability to ignore humanitarian disaster in their own country. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Probus said:

The Kremlin has historically had a vast, vast ability to ignore humanitarian disaster in their own country. 

Not the modern Kremlin. We are talking about huge blow at RU prestige akin to the loss of Crimea. You cannot claim you liberate RU people when RU people are dying in droves. 

UKR is shelling Donetsk and it is already a big political crisis there. RU is afraid of Kherson humanitarian crisis due to the bridges. But that's nothing compared with winter arriving in destroyed regions. 

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

@Grigb one more request if you don't mind. There's some info popping up about RU actually preparing ZPP for demolition. It sounds insane, but... 

1. Annual wind rose for Zaporizhzhia

....you’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

2.  Nice power plant you've got there, Kursk. Be a shame if sumfink happened to it....

3. Of course, this sort of thing moves fairly quickly into WMD space. The list of human winners from nuclear war at any scale is fairly close to zero, and definitely does not include the leadership of China.

[Grigb]

39 minutes ago, Huba said:

@Grigb one more request if you don't mind. There's some info popping up about RU actually preparing ZPP for demolition. It sounds insane, but... 
It is the closest to the original source about it I managed to find, would you mind taking a look?

 

We need independent confirmation. I do not doubt they put explosives everywhere just in case. But I do doubt RU general openly telling things that only Putin has right to tell (nuclear blackmailing). RU generals brave enough to tell what only Putin can tell are long dead. Also, the more you say the more reasons to get you to prison. 

So, I do not believe it yet due to this brazen statement. Too bold, too audacious to be the real thing. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, riptides said:

Birds aren't real.

https://birdsarentreal.com/

 

I would actually wear this one, although it should read: the 'birds' are in the pay of the bourgeoisie

Honorable mention (as it implies you're armed as well as crazy, as opposed to hipster ironic)

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

No, it is a typical RU story. So-called watchment/janitor syndrome - the type of behavior in which a person abuses his insignificant amount of rights and powers.

RU society evolves around bullying and humiliation of those who are lower you. Imagine a man from lowest social circles (who is by definition is the most bullied man in RU society) goes to army and after few years gets ultimate power over somebody else.

He just enjoys the feeling of power he has over the drivers. That is it.  

Yup, signs of "watchman syndrom" are recognizable for anybody who looks at civil Russian social fabric. However, it should be countered by need for military effectivness in such structure as an army at war (at least this is minimum they should learn from their own experiences in WWII). Especially army that is stalled/lacks ammo - severly beating fresh guys in barracks during peacetime is one thing, but stopping vital supplies flowing is another. One wonder where were commanders of both military and military police units.

Mentallity of Russian military and its inability to adapt to wartime is fascinating topic, from WWII onward.

 

[Grigb]

56 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

100% Ukraine's government is sending units into Russia, I believe there was a article or two floating around in the Times? on spec ops units entering Russia proper to scout. 

Yes, but imagine foot patrol with mortar running around Kursk for a week.

[DesertFox]

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

So with everyone agreeing that counteroffensive is not happening, what is going to happen then? Will Ukraine just wait for the Russians to leave, while HIMARSing them continuously and watching people in occupied areas suffer?

 

I would do that. Why spending lives of soldiers if material can do the same job. Time is running out for the orcs not for Ukraine.