How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

... wow, after that suitable-for-framing assessment, this looks pretty lame, but here it is anyway:

Anecdata for the 'Scraping the barrel' files....

 

 

[Huba]

Second report about 150+ km strike in the south today. UA might have a new toy.

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Second report about 150+ km strike in the south today. Something is up definitely...

 

RU Nat report more than 10 powerful explosions.

[Huba]

Assuming it wasn't an accident (very unlikely considering the multiple explosions noted), it is I think first actual strike inside Crimea. We are crossing another threshold. If nukes won't start flying now, everything including Sevastopol and the bridge is fair game now.
I wonder what weapon could have been used here. ATACMS is an obvious bet, but it could be anything air-deliverable too - if HARM was rigged to UA aircraft, so could be JSOW, NSM, TLAM, JASSM and a number of other abbreviations  The advertised ER-GMLRS range is 150km I think, and this base is around 220 km from plausibe launch positions - rather too much of a stretch I think.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Assuming it wasn't an accident (very unlikely considering the multiple explosions noted), it is I think first actual strike inside Crimea. We are crossing another threshold. If nukes won't start flying now, everything including Sevastopol and the bridge is fair game now.
I wonder what weapon could have been used here. ATACMS is an obvious bet, but it could be anything air-deliverable too - if HARM was rigged to UA aircraft, so could be JSOW, NSM, TLAM, JASSM and a number of other abbreviations  The advertised ER-GMLRS range is 150km I think, and this base is around 220 km from plausibe launch positions - rather too much of a stretch I think.

Does not look like HARM hit. Sorry, misread it. Witnesses report cottons were heard 20 km away.

Anyway - looks like there are many good hits. Reportedly many casualties. 

[UPDATE] Witnesses report they saw no missiles.

[UPDATE2] In Novofedorofka witness reports at first explosions all glasses are shattered, fences down, car is f*cked. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Grigb

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Does not look like HARM hit. Witnesses report cottons were heard 20 km away.

Anyway - looks like there are many good hits. Reportedly many casualties. 

If we think air launched, combinations are endless really. If I was to guess, it might be some low tech modular thing like rocket-propelled ER-JDAM or SDB. Range should be just about right for such system, it is relatively easy to manufacture and cheap. And less escalatory than big boys toys like JASSM.

If I was a RU commander of the southern grouping, I'd be needing a new pair of pants now.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

If we think air launched, combinations are endless really. If I was to guess, it might be some low tech modular thing like rocket-propelled ER-JDAM or SDB. Range should be just about right for such system, it is relatively easy to manufacture and cheap. And less escalatory than big boys toys like JASSM.

If I was a RU commander of the southern grouping, I'd be needing a new pair of pants now.

So far we are getting reports from civilians, and they do indeed need fresh pairs of pants. Tourist season in Crimea is closed. 

[Grigb]

Two cottons

[Huba]

And video of the same:

And this:

I bet half of Ukraine yells "FU!!!" watching this, I certainly did

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

They say it is airfield (previously known as Saki-4) for 43 Naval Attack regiment with Su-24. 

[Beleg85]

There are double exposions in the same time on this film:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556997753523380224

Maybe sabotage with charges blown in sam time (it would be humiliation for airfield security)?

[Huba]

[OldSarge]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are double exposions in the same time on this film:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556997753523380224

Maybe sabotage with charges blown in sam time (it would be humiliation for airfield security)?

It is already hitting the news feeds. Mushroom cloud seen rising near Russian military airbase in Crimea though nothing is official yet.

[Beleg85]

This will hit them hard from propaganda standpoint.

Good...

PS. Maybe it this mythical Ukrainian sabouteur team with a mortar. Now doing circles around Crimea.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

- The biggest missing piece in all this is the one thing the Russians can afford the least, and that is time.   

Adding to this is the economic problems that Russia faces long term.  Not just the struggle of Russia's industrial capacity to replace the ever increasing expenditure and lost of military equipment that took decades to accumulate, but also the economic underpinnings that allow that industry to function (spare parts for manufacturing equipment and products alike).  The longer the war goes on the more Russia has to replace with less ability to replace it with.

And that's just the military side of things.  The entire Russian economy is in deep trouble (I just posted a good summary video of this here) and that has ramifications for Russia's ability to wage war at all, not just replacing stuff at the front.  It could even mean regime change if it gets bad enough, as it did in 1990. 

The only thing that will save Russia's economy from collapsing to that point is the lifting of sanctions.  The only way sanctions are going to get lifted is if Russia essentially surrenders.  Russia will never do that, therefore it's economy is going to dip below Russia's national needs at some point in the not to distant future.

This means, at the highest strategic level, that every day that Russia isn't able to put an end to this war on its terms is a day closer to its own ruin.  30 days to go 10km at great cost shouldn't inspire much confidence in Russia's abilities.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

ACHTUNG/STÖJ!  I don't want to be peddling misinformation on here, still less promoting a dolchstosslegende.

It seems this guy is a legit UA general with a long record, but [fuzzy] got dismissed [for some kind of mouthing off?], ran against Zelenskyy in 2019 and then endorsed Poroshenko.  So pass a lot of extra salt with that black bread....  

And holy cats, he looks and sounds just like a figure out of the 19th century. I hear sinister hoofbeats just looking at him. Postwar Ukrainian politics is gonna be, umm colourful.

Full (unfragmented) transcript from Dmitri:

https://wartranslated.com/big-interview-with-ukrainian-general-serhii-kryvonos-updating/

Let's get this straight: the country's military-political leadership.... Did they oversleep, or did they pretend to oversleep the offensive?

....In January, some Americans of the extremely high level came, and right on the maps, they were telling us what would happen and how. But the political leadership said it was all lies, nonsense, and provocations. Why? Well, because the pro-Russian agents are probably in the president's office. There's no other way to justify this. To say that they didn't know. That's an outright lie.

...And generals of the Russian General Staff called their classmates, friends, and brothers who were serving here and warned that in 24 hours, Russia would attack.

And the fact that the attack will come from the side of Belarus is one hundred percent. A year before the start of the war, I warned the country's leadership, and, in principle, I was fired for that. They did not want to hear what they did not want to hear....  

And the Ukrainians, regardless of the country’s political leadership position, were instantly self-organized, having already had enough experience. And they started to burn Russian tanks wherever they could. Only afterward was it taken under the control of the military leadership and became more or less normally managed....

[25 Feb] I accidentally stopped at Zhylyansk airfield; we had to get ammunition there to go to another area. I saw many border guards, officers, and soldiers of the National Guard present. A few soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were present.
When I asked, “what will we do? What were we waiting for?”
– “We are waiting for the Kirov landing party.”

– “What are we doing?

– “We are not doing anything. We are waiting.“

– “Who is the man in charge?”

– “No one in charge.”

Understanding the importance of Zhulyany airport – It was the air gateway for the Russians, for the success of the takeover of Kyiv. 

...They gathered, and I introduced myself, “I’m general Kryvonos. I am taking the command”. Then I set some tasks. I had some experience in defense and successful experience in defense of airfields. In 2014 during the 47 days, I defended in Kramatorsk....

There were cadets from the military institutions of the Shevchenko University. There was a small unit of the presidential regiment. Again, even just an honor guard company. You understand, these are just the guys who absolutely do not know how to fight. But here, we have to give credit to both the commander of this combined unit and these guys; they did everything right....

(I): There are less than 10 kilometers from the airport to the president’s office.

(K): It is seven kilometers only in a straight line and within the city limits....

....The question is, who gave the command to demine the bridges from Crimea? That is the question that worries everyone.... And who is the traitor the public has yet to hear? And it is very interesting because we don't have the information. There are no comments from top leadership. Accordingly, there is a certain distrust toward the leadership.

[March] Russia’s mouth turned out to be too small for big Ukraine, so they decided to bite off Ukraine in pieces, not to swallow it whole....[but] Ukrainian armed forces had severe shell hunger from the end of March – early April.

[Apr-Jun] Domination on the field of artillery duels resulted in our losses being far greater than the Russian losses. Because one might imagine war from the old movie, when people go up to the attack and go there in chains, they are shot by machine gunners. Unfortunately, in this war, it’s a bit different. There are considerably fewer shooting contacts than artillery fire. So, at the expense of the artillery advantage, the Russians suffered fewer losses than we did. And the fact that the counter-battery was not tight enough because there were simply no shells.... 

The first issue the Russians have always practiced in these exercises has always been the redeployment of troops. And we have to give credit for that: they have polished it perfectly. Even from the Far East, they quickly redeployed equipment and people; I say this as a military man....

An enemy has always been identified in the history of the Russian state, whether during the tsar’s time, during the Soviet Union, or now under Putin. So the enemy prevents Russia from living happily.... which has constantly distracted people from the problems in Russia: “the Englishwoman ruined things, the German ruined things, the Finns disturbed us, and someone else disturbed us.”

They consider their people cattle, but they realize that cattle can get smarter. That’s why they need to make them go to war. And the war is usually fought by some of the most active segments of the population. So it’s better to let them die in the war, and there will be less. Then there will be more inside Russia. And all the rest will keep quiet, like, excuse me, enslaved people.

[Taranis]

According to a report by local authorities, 458 bodies were found in Bucha
"The discovery of the town of Bucha, after the withdrawal of Russian forces in early April, shocked the world. The twenty or so civilian bodies first found in the streets of the city were followed by other macabre observations: hundreds of civilian bodies were lying in homes, gardens, public places or had been buried loosely in mass graves.

The local authorities delivered, Monday, during a press conference, the elements of which were then posted on the Facebook page of the municipal council of Bucha, a new assessment after several months of identification of the corpses:

• 458 bodies were found, of which 419* were killed, according to the authorities, bearing marks of gunshot wounds, beatings or torture to death;
• among the corpses, there were 366** men and eighty-six women;
for five bodies, it was impossible to determine the sex, “mainly because they were burned”, said the authorities;
• 12 of the 458 bodies were those of children;
• around 50 bodies could not be identified or were not claimed."

Source : Le Monde
* 91%
** 80%

Edited August 9, 2022 by Taranis

[Grigb]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are double exposions in the same time on this film:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1556997753523380224

Maybe sabotage with charges blown in sam time (it would be humiliation for airfield security)?

It was just accident RU MOD says. Even RU Nats do not belive

Quote

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: On August 9, at about 15.20, several aviation ammunition detonated on the territory of the Saki airfield near the settlement of Novofedorovka on a fortified storage site. As a result of the explosion, no one was injured. Aviation equipment at the airfield is not damaged. Measures are being taken to extinguish the fire and find out the causes of the explosion. According to the report from the site, there was no fire impact [means nobody fired it it] on the fortified ammunition storage area at the airfield.

There is only one problem with this version - on the video of eyewitnesses (https://t.me/milinfolive/88463 ) it is noticeable that the detonation on the territory of the airfield occurs simultaneously in two places, between which there is a considerable distance.

 

[Holien]

Just an accident, nothing to see here move along....

Hehe Hehe 

[Grigb]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

PS. Maybe it this mythical Ukrainian sabouteur team with a mortar. Now doing circles around Crimea.

Made my day!

[Huba]

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

It seems this guy is a legit UA general with a long record, but [fuzzy] got dismissed [for some kind of mouthing off?], ran against Zelenskyy in 2019 and then endorsed Poroshenko.  So pass a lot of extra salt with that black bread....  

Yeah, that got circulated here when it was released.  Hmmm... week ago?  Haiduk did his usual thing by giving us excellent context.  The short of it is that the guy is an unreliable narrator, but there's a lot what he said that is probably true.  Best thing to do is take anything that seems to have a political angle and discard it, then treat what remains as possibly informative.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Crimean strikes...

This is something I talked about when HIMARS first got introduced into the equation.  Many were disappointed that the longer range rockets were not included.  I basically said "be patient" because this was likely a boiling the frog situation to minimize Russian responses.  Because the launchers are already in Ukraine with trained crews, the US could give Ukraine the capacity to hit much longer range targets within hours.  I'm sure there's been a stockpile in Poland just waiting for a handoff to a Ukrainian trucker.  With so many frontline areas to hit, not hitting long range targets really wasn't a big deal.  Especially because the frontline ones have more immediacy on the battles currently being fought.

Personally, I think Ukraine maximized the trauma on Russians by hitting closer (but still fairly distant) targets with precision strikes day after day after day THEN, when Russians might have convinced themselves they could deal with it, smashed some stuff in Crimea.  Now they know that there is no hope of staging anything on occupied Ukrainian soil with impunity.  If Russia has something that Ukraine knows about and wants blown up, it can now do so.

Unlike ammo dumps that can, theoretically, be moved around or dispersed, certain infrastructure can not be.  This is probably why Ukraine's first strike was on an airbase.  This is a blatant reminder that Russia is going to lose critical and impossible to replace infrastructure over the coming weeks.  Airbases, command centers, dock facilities, rail infrastructure, bridges, everything. 

And there isn't an f'n thing that Russia can do about it.

The RU Nats are not going to handle this well.

Steve

[chrisl]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unlike ammo dumps that can, theoretically, be moved around or dispersed, certain infrastructure can not be.  This is probably why Ukraine's first strike was on an airbase.  This is a blatant reminder that Russia is going to lose critical and impossible to replace infrastructure over the coming weeks.  Airbases, command centers, dock facilities, rail infrastructure, bridges, everything. 

 

And submarine support facilities.

[Holien]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The RU Nats are not going to handle this well.

@Grigb you are going to be busy...

Thanks for your continued information and translation superb job and hugely appreciated by me and no doubt everyone else.