How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

My familiar posted in own FB photos of M14 rifles, which got their TD unit, which fights somewhere in Kharkiv oblast. He said usually soldiers have not good opinion about this rifle because it more hard in mastering and firing, so they try to change it on some more useful, but he choose it because he was reenactor of Vietnam war ) 

Theese two rifles from different manufacturers - H&M s/n 913969 (likely 1962-63) and TRW s/n 1889492 (he can't found the year by number)

 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

 

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

LPR police Lt. Col. Alexsey Selivanov, appointed Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Apparently had to be arrested / disappeared for raping a 16-year-old girl, but his supporters have all sorts of excuses and conspiracies for his defense.

 

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

OK I laughed at this. I still find it hard to believe a country with so much investment in space technology, military satellites etc doesn't have less primitive Intel gathering. 

You remember my description of how RU propaganda works? RU space capabilities are 5, RU propaganda claims 50. neutral observer divides it by 2 and got 25. 

RU propaganda is stupid, but it works against unprepared people. That's why I do not believe in EU unity against RU - some Europeans are being affected by RU propaganda because they do not have real experience dealing with RU. 

But to help you understand why RU capabilities are so low let me translate how they really invest in space.

Quote

"It has been said a hundred times: work transparently, big money is allocated, the project is practically nationwide. No, they steal hundreds of millions, hundreds of millions," Putin said at a meeting with members of the government.

[Navalny]: It turns out that Putin is against corruption in our country. And he constantly tells his officials: work transparently. And they don't listen to him and still steal hundreds of millions.

Rather, even billions, because our president says these words about the Vostochny cosmodrome. Which, let me remind you, was originally going to be built for 150 billion rubles. And now this amount has grown to 300 billion.

...I will not even now dig into construction contracts and pour out figures, although since 2012 the Anti-Corruption Fund has simply been shouting: everything is being stolen at this cosmodrome.I poked my finger at the very top. Almost next to you, and we'll talk a little bit about transparency.

[description of Rogozin, head of RU Space Agency, property including several plots of expensive land]

Thus, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, and I — and, I am sure, the whole country — poses this question to you: can you explain from the point of view of transparency, which you demand, the appearance of this property in the family of the head of Roscosmos?

350 million — what is on the declarations — is three times more than Dmitry Rogozin could earn as an official in his entire life.

And besides, you know, the official salary of 23 million is very confusing for us. Maybe you can explain to us why you assigned the director and deputy of Roscosmos a salary higher than that of the head of NASA? We don't mind a big salary, but why is it insanely big? Is there really so much extra money in our budget?

 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

LPR police Lt. Col. Alexsey Selivanov, appointed Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Apparently had to be arrested / disappeared for raping a 16-year-old girl, but his supporters have all sorts of excuses and conspiracies for his defense.

 

not sure whether this dude should go on list... is he dead yet?  

[FancyCat]

WSJ interview with Zelensky. https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-says-a-cease-fire-with-russia-without-reclaiming-lost-lands-will-only-prolong-war-11658510019

 

Quote

 

Recent shipments of U.S. and allied weapons, particularly the Himars multiple-launch rocket systems and 155mm howitzers, have helped to blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and stabilize the situation there, Mr. Zelensky said. The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, he said. Now, he added, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops.

This change in the balance of firepower has stemmed Ukrainian casualties, Mr. Zelensky said. At the peak of fighting in May and June, he said, Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 troops a day; now, it is down to some 30 fatalities a day and around 250 wounded.

 

 

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

I disagree though that every russian strike so far is spray and pray. They have fired thousands of Kalibrs, Iskanders, airborne missiles etc with (not US/NATO standard) but very decent accuracy .

How can we possibly know that?  We can guess at the Russian target list but so far we have seen a lot of apartment buildings and shopping malls hit.  Ukrainian industry has been hit but  UA logistics are still up, they are pushing new capability to the front and as far as we can tell Ukrainian information architecture is running very well.  UA ISR has been impacted by EW in narrow fronts.

Meanwhile 4 bloody HIMARS appear to have forced the entire Russian operational logistical plan to push back about 100kms, and we covered the impact of that.  It has been noted by Russian milbloggers that Russia is shooting in the dark ISR-wise, and it shows.

If we compare the overall effects, I am not sure how one can put Russia and Ukraine on anywhere near even terms with respect to deep strike capability.  Russia is lobbing missiles as terror weapons, which is reinforcing western centres of gravity, while Ukraine has been hitting operational targets with precision (a bridge for f#cks sake!) to the point it has forced the Russians to shift operations.

Edited July 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

17 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Did Russian parked this MTL in wrong neighbourhood or your guys somehow managed to move AT Gun into range?

The first. There is a chain of close-placed villages along the road, so UKR positions in neigbour village Rus'ki Tyshky about in 800 - 1000 m from Russians

Edited July 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[panzermartin]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

How can we possibly know that?  We can guess at the Russian target list but so far we have seen a lot of apartment buildings and shopping malls hit

 

So what is this from the early days , a lucky shot? Aaa yes, another shopping mall hit by inaccurate dumb russian missile that some corrupt official looted the guidance system. 

There is a certain wishful thinking here and the effects of the echo chamber are not doing justice to otherwise very interesting and informative thread. Haiduk has all the reasons to be a wishful thinker here but his posts are mostly grounded to reality, good or bad. 

[Grigb]

I found yesterday interview of UKR Reserve Colonel, military expert Roman Svitan. It was in RU language, so I decided to translate. 

As usual take it with a grain of salt but I believe his opinion is very interesting.

Part 1

The situation at the front

• There is no operational pause as such
• First hot front is from Belogorovka near Seversk to Uglegorskaya TPP [Thermal power station] south of Bakhmut. where battles are constantly taking place, without any breaks and pauses
• The second hot front is from Izyum to Slavyansk. There are also exchanges of blows, mainly artillery
• The third hot spot is from Kharkov to Old Saltov.  UKR forces, which have been trying to conduct offensive operations on Kupyansk for the second month, are constantly being attacked from Belgorod
• UKR is conducting counter-offensive actions in the area from Kherson to Krivoy Rog
• Over the past few weeks, from Vasilyevka (south of Zaporozhye) to Novotroitsky (south of Donetsk), the AFU has been conducting successful counter-offensive actions

Quote

The situation at the front

- Let's talk about the situation at the front. Many people talk about an operational pause, do you agree with this?

- There is no operational pause as such. In recent months, there have been exchanges of blows on almost the entire front line – offensive and counter-offensive actions at short distances. That is, mainly company-tactical groups worked, or even just DRG. In addition to several points, for example, Severodonetsk-Lisichansk.

- And what is happening now?

- Now we have the first hot front line – from Seversk to Bakhmut. And to be more precise – from Belogorovka near Seversk to Uglegorskaya TPP [Thermal power station] south of Bakhmut. This is the front line on which battles are constantly taking place, without any breaks and pauses: offensive on the part of the Russians and sometimes counter-offensive on the part of the Ukrainian troops. But in general, this front line stands at about the same place.

The second point where the hot phase is going on is the offensive of the Russians from the side of Izyum to Slavyansk. There are also exchanges of blows, mainly artillery. Sometimes company-tactical groups come out, which our artillery successfully hits.

And the third hot spot is from Kharkov to Old Saltov. There is a grouping of Russian troops there, whose task is to cut off our proposed offensive in the direction of Kupyansk. This is a large railway junction where the supplies of weapons and ammunition of the Russian group converge. Therefore, our forces, which have been trying to conduct offensive operations on Kupyansk for the second month, are constantly being attacked from Belgorod. This is a frontal strike that does not allow us to develop an offensive on Kupyansk.

- And what about the counter-offensive actions of the Ukrainian troops?

- Yes, indeed, our military is conducting counter-offensive actions in the area from Kherson to Krivoy Rog. On this front line, the counter-offensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine bring success. The front line is moving closer to the Dnieper River. For almost the second month in a row, we are pressing the Russians to the Dnieper.

- Why is it important?

- The Dnieper is a wide and powerful barrier, through which there are only two bridges: in the area of Novaya Kakhovka and Kherson (Antonovsky Bridge). And our movement to these bridges creates the ground for the de-occupation of Kherson and the entire right bank.

In addition, over the past few weeks, from Vasilyevka (south of Zaporozhye) to Novotroitsky (south of Donetsk), the AFU has been conducting successful counter-offensive actions. Some Russian groups have already been dislodged from their positions there. The movement of the front has been going at a speed of 2-5 km per day for the last couple of weeks. And it is permanent.

There is a definite intention – in this operating mode, to try to squeeze out Russian troops where they are are weakening. We can talk about the softness of the front line from Kherson to Donetsk, so counter-offensive actions are possible there. Plus our artillery is working.

- You mentioned two major bridges in the south of Ukraine, through which, as I understand it, the Russian occupiers are transferring weapons. Why haven't the AFU destroyed them yet?

- It could have been done after HIMARS entered service – to explode the Antonovsky Bridge, which is already mined, and the bridge in the area of Novaya Kakhovka. Why our military leadership does not do this is a big question (the interview was recorded before the AFU strikes on the Antonovsky Bridge on July 19-20 - ed.). Ammunition sets, which are being fired in the direction of Nikolaev, are going through the Antonovsky Bridge. By cutting this thread, we could reduce the shelling of Nikolaev, because shelling is 90% artillery. And why we don't do it is a very big question.

[Here I cut conspiracy theory that there is secret agreement between UKR and RU. It rested on UKR not shooting the bridge that UKR shot after the interview. So, it is not relevant anymore]

 

The situation in Donbas

• RU cannot seize the entire territory of the Luhansk region because there is a good line of defense in the Belogorovka area
• Slavyansk is important to RU because of the major water intake in the village of Raygorodok
• RU can take it but needs to gather troops from all other fronts
• RU will not be able to take the whole Donetsk region
• RU can't take cities like Slavyansk and Kramatorsk because it is all one huge city with a large number of industrial zones
• UKR burning out more RU resources than RU can assemble for battle

Quote

The situation in Donbas

- Why can't the Russians seize the entire territory of the Luhansk region? Verkhnekamenka and Belogorovka still remain under the control of the AFU.

- It's just that there is a good line of defense in the Belogorovka area. On one side it is covered by the Seversky Donets, on the other side there is a rise. That is, this is a good fortified area, that's why we are holding on to it. And the Russians are fighting against this fortified area, they have lost a lot of people there, and they will continue to do this, because without this they will not be able to move towards Slavyansk.

- Why is Slavyansk so important to them?

- For the same reason why the Novaya Kakhovka is important for the Crimea.

- Water?

- That's right. In Novaya Kakhovka there is a water lifting station of the Dnieper water, which goes to the Crimea. Therefore, the Russians will fight for the New Kakhovka, and not for Kherson.

The same pattern is observed in the area of Slavyansk. There is the village of Raygorodok – the water intake of the Seversky Donets and then the canal goes through Chas Yar, Toretsk, Gorlovka and to the Verkhnekalmiuske reservoir near Donetsk. This is an important water intake for Donbass.

Now there is no water in many cities of the Donetsk region, including Donetsk, so it is important for them to take this water intake. And now they have the only task that they have set and are more or less able to complete, is taking this water intake.

- How feasible is this task?

- If they now gather all the troops from all over the front and throw them to solve this problem, they will be able to fulfill it somehow. On the other hand, such a scenario would mean the concentration of Russian troops in one place, which would be a good target for our HIMARS.

Theoretically, they can take this water intake, but they can't keep it. The AFU will simply destroy them along with this water intake.

Let them concentrate their troops in one place, and at this time we will work along the rest of the front line, where they do not have enough troops – in the area of Kherson, Kharkov, Izyum and so on.

- Will the Russians be able to completely capture the Donetsk region?

- The Russians will not be able to take the whole Donetsk region by 100%. The maximum that they can do is to approach this water intake. Approach, but not take. There will be no water supply.

- They can't take cities like Slavyansk and Kramatorsk?

- It's unreal. There is a very large agglomeration of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkovka-Konstantinovka, which is unrealistic to take. This is all one huge city with a large number of industrial zones. If they can't take Belogorovka, then what is Slavyansk?

- Does the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation understand this?

- They understand this perfectly well, but they have no other choice. The military reports to politicians that they cannot fulfill the task, to which the political leadership decides to bargain for grain, strikes on cities, and murders of people. The Russians are well aware that they will not hold Kherson and the south of Ukraine. At this stage, they want to keep at least the Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk regions. They're already exhausted.

The number of reserves that they can organize at a certain point in time is being broken up by our troops. Let's say the Russians are assembling a battalion-tactical group, so we break it up in a week. Now we are "burning out" even more people than they can put into operation. And this is not only a human, but also a technical resource.

End of Part 1

Edited July 22, 2022 by Grigb

[sross112]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 

So what is this from the early days , a lucky shot? Aaa yes, another shopping mall hit by inaccurate dumb russian missile that some corrupt official looted the guidance system. 

There is a certain wishful thinking here and the effects of the echo chamber are not doing justice to otherwise very interesting and informative thread. Haiduk has all the reasons to be a wishful thinker here but his posts are mostly grounded to reality, good or bad. 

It will probably never be possible, but the only way to know for sure about the RA "superior accuracy" would be to have their target list and compare it to the damage assessment. If they actually have this ability to hit what they are aiming at then they are the worst terrorist state in recent times. The list of civilian targets that have been hit is very very long. That leads most of us to conclude that there is no sense in hitting the stuff they have since there are perfectly legitimate targets all over the place that would increase their likelihood of military success. That makes us figure that either their ISR is horrible and they are rolling the dice on google earth targets or they are aiming at one thing and hitting another. 

Yes there are a handful of successful strikes like the one above, the hit on the training center early on, umm, well, I'm sure someone could find 3 or 4 more in the last 5 months. You can say that it is all being covered up by UKR, but we know in this day and age it is very hard to cover up anything. Beyond that, if it was true that the RA had good ISR and was shellacking targets they would definitely be showing everybody the results. After all, if they have good enough ISR to find and fix targets they should have good enough ISR to provide BDA.

[panzermartin]

4 minutes ago, sross112 said:

It will probably never be possible, but the only way to know for sure about the RA "superior accuracy" would be to have their target list and compare it to the damage assessment. If they actually have this ability to hit what they are aiming at then they are the worst terrorist state in recent times. The list of civilian targets that have been hit is very very long. That leads most of us to conclude that there is no sense in hitting the stuff they have since there are perfectly legitimate targets all over the place that would increase their likelihood of military success. That makes us figure that either their ISR is horrible and they are rolling the dice on google earth targets or they are aiming at one thing and hitting another. 

Yes there are a handful of successful strikes like the one above, the hit on the training center early on, umm, well, I'm sure someone could find 3 or 4 more in the last 5 months. You can say that it is all being covered up by UKR, but we know in this day and age it is very hard to cover up anything. Beyond that, if it was true that the RA had good ISR and was shellacking targets they would definitely be showing everybody the results. After all, if they have good enough ISR to find and fix targets they should have good enough ISR to provide BDA.

I'm not saying they have superior accuracy or ISR, cause they don't. But forum members here claim that RU doesn't even posess the ability to strike with decent accuracy, while there are filmed events that prove them wrong. I can bet my money that there are lot of undocumented or covered accurate strikes besides the few known ones you mention. 

No Ukraine is not on par (yet) with the long range capabilities of RA despite the HIMARS panic. 

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers fire a shell from an M777 howitzer on a front line, in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine, July 21, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS"

[akd]

30 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 

So what is this from the early days , a lucky shot? Aaa yes, another shopping mall hit by inaccurate dumb russian missile that some corrupt official looted the guidance system. 

There is a certain wishful thinking here and the effects of the echo chamber are not doing justice to otherwise very interesting and informative thread. Haiduk has all the reasons to be a wishful thinker here but his posts are mostly grounded to reality, good or bad. 

There is no connection between this and your previous claim. (Also note the lack of secondary explosions, suggestions Russia may have had good intel for the location, but carried out the strike too late.)

Edited July 22, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

 

So what is this from the early days , a lucky shot? Aaa yes, another shopping mall hit by inaccurate dumb russian missile that some corrupt official looted the guidance system. 

There is a certain wishful thinking here and the effects of the echo chamber are not doing justice to otherwise very interesting and informative thread. Haiduk has all the reasons to be a wishful thinker here but his posts are mostly grounded to reality, good or bad. 

It is an incoherent video with a bunch of weirdly disconnected shots from 21 Mar - about the time the entire Northern Russian front collapsed.  That was a BM-21 as far as I can tell and that last hit on the shopping mall was a ballistic missile of some sort.  The ability of Russian missile to strike targets they can pull from Google Earth is not a clear indicator of superiority in anything.  Yes, they have a lot of long range missiles that can hit static target the size of the building...so what?  How does that lend to leap in logic that the Russians and Ukraine have deep strike parity somehow?

Type in "Russian Ammo Dump explosion" into You Tube and see what comes up.  Type it into Google and you get this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-military-strikes-with-western-arms-disrupt-russian-supply-lines-2022-07-14/

I could post this and reference stuff posted on this thread all day long.

So let's talk "grounded in reality".  We have reports of over 30 operational high value targets being hit in Russian depth over the last couple weeks.  The Russians are being forced to react.  Their offensive operations are slow and small gains, and very costly - to the point they had to invoke a week+ long operational pause after taking a few acres in the Donbas.  UA c-btty seems to be working.  The Russian offensive has the hallmarks of stalling, just like it did in phase 1, and now we are hearing speculation on a UA Kherson offensive - after they hammered that bridge with PGM, to the point the Russians have to restrict traffic.

We have debated Russian morale and are looking for indicators one way or the other as to where it is pointing.  None of it is pointing to "good news" for the Russian system.  In fact it appears kinda sick, if these trends in desertion keep going.  The RA can still attack so they are not out of it yet but getting a weird vibe.  

Look, you want to be "the counter-thinker", cool we definitely need them.  However, come with facts.  We have been pulling assessments in from everywhere and adding our own, if you indeed have one then lay it out.  Right now I am seeing a lot of opinion and one grainy video that is running counter to about the last 200 pages.  Some questions to consider:

- How has Russian deep strike affected the UA operational system?

- How has that erosion supported the achievement of Russian operational and strategic goals.

- How has Russian deep strike affected Centers of Gravity as different levels?

- Have the Russians achieved any operational level superiority beyond massed artillery fires?  Have they eroded UA superiority.

- How has Russian deep strike opened up strategic options spaces?  (it sure as hell has for the UA).

- How has deep strike affected each sides Will?

Now if you can answer those, with some facts or even a credible professional assessment then lets hear em.

 

[Haiduk]

15 hours ago, dan/california said:

We may have our first morale test case in progress if the Russians can't break out. There is some indication it is a Naval infantry unit. There is not enough info to figure out if these are real infantry/marines, or just everyone from some godforsaken base near Vladivostok who did an insufficiently good job of looking busy, and or running like bleep when the base commander had to round up a battalion from nothing. 

This is VERY overestimated information, coming from unknown/unreliable source. Like and completely fantastic statements about 2000 Russians in encirclement. Our General Staff issued only some hints aboute "firing control" of Olhyne - Vysokopillia area and some our accounts became to throw-in next "great victory". What really is going there, also only with some hints told in FB Volodymyr Molchanov, political scientist from Kherson (probably he evacuated from the city), maybe he has some more reliable sources. 

So, liberation of Olhyne village not confirmed yet, but as if vanguard UKR troops already entered to the village and seized positions along railroad. So, UKR troops now can conduct partial fire control (in some places including small arms) over logistic ways to Vysokopillia. As if Vysokopillia defends two BTGs 11th air-assaulr brigade with some arty/MLRS support, though I suppose this is 205th MRB, but no matter. 

One twitter account wrote, UKR troops capturd 20 wounded Russian soldiers in this area - I think, the number "2000 in encirclement" was dirived from this info %) 

On the alleged scheme of Molchanov, black lines - Russian positions, green lines - supply ways on field roads. 

 

[Letter from Prague]

9 hours ago, Grigb said:

Looks like RU propagandists got secret memo to joke about NATO weapons including HIMARS. It even caused a split of one infamous RU Nat TG channel. One of the authors did not agree with removing the sober post about HIMARS. 

It looks like this

• Javelin and NLAW did not help and UKR are abandoned them because RPG is more convenient!
•  155mm somewhat dangerous but we have SO MUCH MORE GUNS!
• That Multiple rocket launcher is not more practical than Smerch or Tornado!
• We had not even begun yet!

I have seen three of these "arguments" (all but the first one) on Reddit literally today. The same comment letter by letter posted by multiple people, no less. The Russian propaganda is really strong on Western social media too.

Edited July 22, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[poesel]

3 hours ago, mosuri said:

You can call me a cynic and a pessimist, but Finland for sure needs to have an independent army. I don't believe for a moment that any French or German soldier would make an appearance here if Putain decided to come over for a visit.

You can say what you want about Germans, but we honor contracts. Finland will soon be in NATO and there is also an EU defense pact. There is no doubt that both countries would come to help Finland.
I also like to add that Germany historically has quite a good track record for helping Finland vs the Russians.

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

On one hand, Greens have the worst stance on nuclear power, on the other hand, their stances on Ukraine are quite hawkish, but looks like they can bend dogma towards reality.

I'd like to argue that the Greens have the best stance wrt nuclear power, but that is beyond this thread.

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

reduction of speed limit is the compromise they chose?   Wouldn't increased investment in solar/wind/other have been a better tradeoff?  seems rather odd, small effect.

That is a political maneuver that needs some explanation. No speed limit on the Autobahn is a holy cow of German politics. Similar to US gun law. But most parties have silently abandoned that position, except for the FDP, who have made it to one of their mayor points. The coalition contract both says that there will be no speed limit and nuclear will end this year.
The Greens got under pressure to prolong nuclear, so they put pressure on the speed limit. This is insofar clever, as the Greens can live with a little nuclear extension while the FDP cannot agree to the speed limit.
Important to note is that both issues do not save gas, but CO2.

Increased investment in renewables is going to happen anyway.

Edited July 22, 2022 by poesel

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

LPR police Lt. Col. Alexsey Selivanov, appointed Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. Apparently had to be arrested / disappeared for raping a 16-year-old girl, but his supporters have all sorts of excuses and conspiracies for his defense.

 

@sburke

"Lt.colonel". He never served in army or police. I wrote about him yesterday. This is just "Russian world" influencer, which wasc born and worked in Kyiv until 2014 in coordination with Russia embassy, Ukrainian Orthodox church of Moskov Patriarchy and some pro-Russian organizations. He was elected as "ataman" (one of hundreds of theese clowns) of cossacks and was a leader of pro-Russian "Faithful Cossackship" paramilitary organization in Kyiv, also he was a chief of cadet-cossack group of teenagers. A single thing, which tied him with military - he was an assistant of Pavel Lebedev, Ukrainan minister of Defense (with Russian citizenship) in Yanukovich time.

[Grigb]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

There is a certain wishful thinking here and the effects of the echo chamber are not doing justice to otherwise very interesting and informative thread. Haiduk has all the reasons to be a wishful thinker here but his posts are mostly grounded to reality, good or bad. 

Sorry for being rough but it is not let say me who is engaged in wishful thinking regarding RU capabilities.

• It was not me who claimed RU unguided MLRS = to Western GMLRS
• It was not me who claimed RU recon Sats are comparable to Western
• It was not me who claimed RU are hitting targets only to admit later there is hardly any proof

I like the video from Kiev when RU were close to Kiev. I just cannot understand how it can be an example of RU long range capabilities. It is not my posts that contain inflated unsubstantiated claims aka wishful thinking regarding RU capabilities.

My posts contain something like the following: RU Nat from VKS about current VKS issues

Quote

There is a lack of the necessary tools of reconnaissance and strike equipment that allows you to quickly identify and hit targets at a distance above 20 km from the LBS [frontline].

Yes, they have some agents. Yes, they hit something painful for UKR (at least few barracks few times for example). It is not like all their strikes are misses. But given that for a few weeks they are unable to track and hit such High Priority Target as HIMARS (operating not that far from LBS) I can guaranty you that their long-range strike capabilities are low. Like very low. Unbelievably low.

Those who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

 

Так что же это с первых дней, удачный выстрел? Ааа да, еще один торговый центр поражен неточной тупой российской ракетой, которую какой-то коррумпированный чиновник разграбил систему наведения. 

Здесь есть определенное принятие желаемого за действительное, и эффекты эхо-камеры не отдают должного в остальном очень интересной и информативной теме. У Хайдука есть все основания выдавать желаемое за действительное, но его сообщения в основном основаны на реальности, хорошей или плохой. 

 

I don’t understand what strategic goal the shopping center represents. What is the point of wasting a valuable rocket on a civilian object? Probably the reason was a post on social networks a few DAYS before the missile strike. Do you think this is called effective target intelligence?

[Haiduk]

According to Konstantin Mashovets, the number of Russian BTGs, which were withdrew to the rear for rest and replacemnts increased on four for last days and reached 27.

Last BTGs, whithdrawn to the rear: one BTG of 55th MBR, one BTG of 74th MBR (both from Kramatorsk direction), two BTGs of 102nd MRR of 150th MRD (Bakhmut axis)

Also he wrote today big article about future UKR offensive and advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purpose and more mass actions will take place only in final phase, when such conditions will be created, that Russians will be forced to withdraw, like in April during expelling of Russians from the north. Russians should be put between withdraw and save own lifes or to die, trying to execute typical Russian order "Fight with shovels if no ammo! This is our land  - no step back!"

He also wrote, "classical" warfare with rugged defense and mass assaults happened on Donbas and Izium zxis because Russians concentrated overhelming advantage in forces there and could impose this type of war to Ukrainan forces. But I personally can add - UKR agreed to this challenge, having strong fortified lines - in this case, taking into account geographical factor, UKR troops just can't play in "flexible defense" like on the north, else Russian tanks already would came to Dnipro  

 

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

I don’t understand what strategic goal the shopping center represents. What is the point of wasting a valuable rocket on a civilian object? Probably the reason was a post on social networks a few DAYS before the missile strike. Do you think this is called effective target intelligence?

The mall contained military targets, I believe MLRS systems. Russia released screenshots of them at the mall.

One major issue is Russia lies a lot. Like hugely and is not keen on providing evidence. Ukraine rules against posting videos and photos also seems to have clammed up stuff for OSINT, and language barrier and pro-UKR tilt will further give issues with visibility. No doubt Russia has made progress, but when reviewing Russian claims vs UKR, let’s just say Russian claims need more proof. 

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

According to Konstantin Mashovets, the number of Russian BTGs, which were withdrew to the rear for rest and replacemnts increased on four for last days and reached 27.

Last BTGs, whithdrawn to the rear: one BTG of 55th MBR, one BTG of 74th MBR (both from Kramatorsk direction), two BTGs of 102nd MRR of 150th MRD (Bakhmut axis)

Also he wrote today big article about future UKR offensive and advice to all do not expect WWI or WWII scale operations with massing of armor, infantry, huge artilelry bombardments and human-wave assaults. He said this is model of past wars and despite Russia continue to stick on them, but UKR rejected this and will try to play in modern methods of warfare. He named this "gradually softening" of enemy defense, using advantage in ISR and precise striking assets. Ground operations will have tactical purpose and more mass actions will take place only in final phase, when such conditions will be created, that Russians will be forced to withdraw, like in April during expelling of Russians from the north. Russians should be put between withdraw and save own lifes or to die, trying to execute typical Russian order "Fight with shovels if no ammo! This is our land  - no step back!"

He also wrote, "classical" warfare with rugged defense and mass assaults happened on Donbas and Izium zxis because Russians concentrated overhelming advantage in forces there and could impose this type of war to Ukrainan forces. But I personally can add - UKR agreed to this challenge, having strong fortified lines - in this case, taking into account geographical factor, UKR troops just can't play in "flexible defense" like on the north, else Russian tanks already would came to Dnipro  

 

Neither Russia nor Ukraine has the density and number of troops in arms to make it like prior WWII or WWI. I believe that part of the reason for no big massing, air strikes still have good effects on disbursing mass and so with UKR needing to conserve limited armor and artillery resources, UKR will adopt less mass pushes. 

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

I don’t understand what strategic goal the shopping center represents. What is the point of wasting a valuable rocket on a civilian object? Probably the reason was a post on social networks a few DAYS before the missile strike. Do you think this is called effective target intelligence?

@panzermartin

In this case they really destrpoyed several Grads, which hide there. But this is one of rare examples of proper ISR work. 

In most cases their missile strikes looks like strikes on civilian objects, were "allgedly" deployed "nationalists". Or like one  of the last strikes with Kalibrs - seven missiles launched, five intercepted, two hit small pig farm. kiling 150 pigs. Either incorrect ISR, or some agents gave Russian misinformation and they wasted two missiles in nowere. 

Here captured Russian map, using by units, atatcking Kharkiv. it was issued in 1969: https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/pered-vtorgnennyam-vijskovym-rosiyi-vydaly-zastarili-karty-ukrayiny/

 

[Grigb]

interview of UKR Reserve Colonel, military expert Roman Svitan

Part 2

New threats

• Shoigu ordered to increase the forces and vehicles that can be put forward to the front
• New Ru reserves cannot change the situation
• We haven't even started fighting in Ukraine yet is BS
• Mobilization, it is already happening now, only without the word "universal"
• The Russian Federation does not declare a general mobilization, because it is not needed
• Putin understands perfectly well that use of Nukes will entail his personal death
• Belarusian forces are weak, inexperienced, and unmotivated

Quote

New threats

- A few days ago, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the Russian occupiers to strengthen their actions in all sectors of the front. What can it mean?

- They are well aware that we now have a positive balance towards the destruction of their vehicles. Therefore, there is a command to increase the forces and vehicles that can be put forward to the front. Plus, a order is put  to prepare battalion tactical groups. Now almost all Russian regions will begin to form such BTGs according to the type of our TRO. Shoigu just gave a political command, and the regions themselves are already doing what they can.

- Can these BTGs change the situation at the front?

- They definitely won't change the situation. The front line will not change. Ours will break them with long-range artillery even on approach. We already have HIMARS, artillery, aviation is strengthening. By the time they form these battalion-tactical groups, we will already have a lot of HIMARS.

You understand that we can destroy more and more Russian equipment every day, but they are running out of resources, they cannot increase supplies and production. They hit limit of the deconservation process of vehicles.

- I can't help but recall Vladimir Putin's recent statement that "we haven't even started fighting in Ukraine yet." How would you comment on it?

- A person who claims that we haven't started anything yet already understands that he has nothing. Apart from this statement, there is nothing left. This is the last thing that can be said on the air.

- What about the general mobilization and use of nuclear weapons?

- As for mobilization, it is already happening now, only without the word "universal". Today, every military enlistment office has the task of recruiting people for the formation of military units. Only now it happens voluntarily and for money. But the process is already going on, it is impossible to increase it, because the same military enlistment offices have bandwidth.

The Russian Federation does not declare a general mobilization, because it is not needed. From the word at all. They already have the number of people they need to perform combat missions. The general mobilization will not increase the number of tanks. It makes no sense to recruit people, give them machine guns in their hands and send them under our HIMARS and tanks.

As for the use of nuclear weapons, if it were possible, Putin would have started with it. He understands perfectly well that this will entail his personal death. NATO countries will strike back at the entire Russian elite. The first projectile fired will lead to a retaliatory strike. No one in the world needs a nuclear conflict. I think many world leaders have explained this to Putin.

- Can Belarus help Putin in any way?

- There is no Belarusian army as such. There are certain special operations forces that are more trained to pacify the civilian population. The Belarusian army has never fought, so it does not pose any threat to us. And they understand it perfectly. Any wave of them will break against our brigade, which stands along the northern borders. Therefore, they will not go to Ukraine. It's like banging your head against a wall.

They have an air force, but they haven't fought anywhere either. The maximum they can do is to provide their planes to the Russians. But if they fly into the territory of Ukraine, they will immediately collide with our air defenses. Another threat from Belarus is missile launches from their territory at our cities. There are Russian Iskanders there, and this is a problem.

But there's nothing more they can do to us. The maximum that the Belarusian army is capable of now is running back and forth along the border, changing and putting up plywood tanks.

- Do you not believe in the ground operation of the Belarusian army?

- The Belarusian army will not go 100%.

- Can the Russian Federation attract the Belarusian army for combat operations in the Donbas?

- There are already Belarusian contractors in Ukraine who have signed contracts with the Russian Federation. They were found dead. These are citizens of Belarus who decided to earn extra money in this way. But they are there as mercenaries. The transfer of Belarusian troops to Ukraine is impossible. The Belarusian state will not allow this. And the troops themselves may refuse to perform this task.