How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sniffing the tea leaves I would say RU Nats narrative is correct - Z soldier was beaten by young Tatars. But what is interesting is the cover up - it would be easier to throw three youngsters under the bus. But we have a very serious cover up. We are watching the government of Crimea including non-Tatar Aksenov literally spitting into RU Nats face for the sake of local Tatars. 

The situation in Crimea is far from calm. Even loyal to RU Tatars are in fact truly angry at RU. That's why hotheaded youngsters are trying to do what they can do. And RU officials are trying to suppress everything they can to hide the extent of Tatars discontent.

This is my take on it too.  The further repressive actions against the Tatars just before the war and even more recently show that Russia is concerned about them.  That's the way I read Russian tea leaves... if they announce a repressive measure on top of an already repressive status quo, then that says to me they fear the existing repression is insufficient.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Russian rail communication between Rubizhne and Lysychansk severed:

EDIT: nevermind, was dropped back in May while area still under UKR control.  Cool vid, though.

Yeah... Trukha in own stupid style - "behind the emeny lines"...

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Do you think they've fully come to grips with how incompetently led the Russian tactical forces are?  I'm sure Girkin has that covered, but what about the rest? 

It is not only Girkin who covers it. Any serious RU Nat close to the front or military is discussing it. Snake Island Good Wil Gesture and HIMARS strikes hit so hard that even reporters are discussing RU high command incompetence. Today's quote from one:

Quote

Yesterday a friend went to his countryman. Some of them were taken to the rear to rest.

Of course, they live in an open field in tents.

It seems that many generals have not heard about Tochka-U and HIMARS until now. [They are] not officers, but a pack of idiots.

Right now, they are transmitting the message to RU public to force Tsar to wake up and punish bad boyars RU gov to mobilize. 

[Artkin]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russians involved three raiway troops brigades in Ukraine. They can relatively quickly restore railways - HIMARS or Tochka-U can wipe out one or two sections of rails. This is nothing - just wasting of missiles. 

They could also reliably hit the repair crews at work too. It might be a good idea if UA is able to keep these locations under surveillance

[FancyCat]

Why hit the railways when you can hit the ammo dumps at the end and cause tons of social media chatter as the skies darken from the smoke and flames?

 

[Haiduk]

On 7/11/2022 at 12:11 AM, FancyCat said:

In a interview with The Times, Defense Minister Reznikov makes clear (unless its a bluff) that Kherson is the site of the Ukrainian counter offensive.

 

It's necessary to consider this statement not as an anouncement of imminent couter-offensive. Pay attantion - this statement made not military of UKR General Staff, not president as Supreme Commander. But Minister of defense, which in current terms more negotiation figure. Though, Reznikov said "President had ordered to prepare plans of liberation of South". So, don't expect any offnsive in next weeks. This statement is political message for Russia, which threaten to escalate warfare if UKR and West don't agree for peace talks in order to "fix current reality". Russian started new effort to influence of western politics by natural gas question and hints of war escalation (Lithuania, official declaration of war to Ukraine, nukes etc.) -Putin said about Special military operation developing: "we havn't started nothing serious yet". So, the statement of Reznikov about South liberation is a message to Russia - "we are threwing out your ultimatums and will fight further". This is message to West "even don't think to deal with Russia, we will not go for concessions, better give more weapon"

And about "million army gathering for South liberation". Looks like wrong interpretation. Reznikov just said in present time Ukriane is defended by about million servicemen, but not about this million will be thrown to South. He issued such numbers: 

Armed Forces - 700 000

National Guard - 90 000

State Border Guard Service - 60 000

Police - 100 000

Of course, theese 700 000 not all are "line infantry". About 120-140 000 are Territorial Defense. Many in Air Forces, Naval forces (except marines), rear, logistic, maintanance units, civilian personnel. Many of mobilized are training now or awaiting of training queue and this is also a problem - we have a "bottle neck" with capability of personnel training   

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is not only Girkin who covers it. Any serious RU Nat close to the front or military is discussing it. Snake Island Good Wil Gesture and HIMARS strikes hit so hard that even reporters are discussing RU high command incompetence. Today's quote from one:

That's not quite what I mean.  What I'm asking about is if the mil bloggers have gone any deeper into the fiasco other than blaming the top levels.  Because the reality is if every single General was gotten rid of and replaced by the best of the best Majors and Colonels, the Russian Army would still fight like crap because it is inherently based on outdated doctrine, horrible training standards, and a complete lack of professionalism from top to bottom.

The fact that the entire Russian military industrial complex is utterly broken is pretty tough pill to swallow, as we Yanks say.  Have any of the mil bloggers really looked hard for what went wrong or only sticking with the obvious aspects?

Steve

[Huba]

Almost tanks

 

 

[Haiduk]

There are several hints for two days UKR troops push off DPR troops from eastern outskirts of Maryinka and even seized "zero positions" in front of next Olexandrivka village (occupied since 2014), this is already almost SW suburb of Donetsk. Reportedly inhabitants of Oleksandrivka began to flee.

On this picture the smoke between Maryinka and Olexandrivka

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

There are several hints for two days UKR troops push off DPR troops from eastern outskirts of Maryinka and even seized "zero positions" in front of next Olexandrivka village (occupied since 2014), this is already almost SW suburb of Donetsk. Reportedly inhabitants of Oleksandrivka began to flee.

On this picture the smoke between Maryinka and Olexandrivka

I've seen the reports and I'm very curious about it.  This can't be anything more than a local attack as it isn't connected to anything else significant at the moment.  I assume local conditions were favorable and this is designed to distract Russian offensives elsewhere, especially just north of Donetsk?

Steve

[akd]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Avramchenko posted earlier was indeed a full Colonel and as of Feb. 15, 2022 seems to have held the position of Deputy Commander of the 20th Guards MRD

@sburke @Kinophile

More specifically, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Affairs (Zampolit).

 

Lt. Col. Alexander Sorochinsky, probably 4th Guards Tank Division:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1546939635389054976?s=20&t=r1ZHrhlOedw2ts7W__rPMA

Edited July 12, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

T-80B with DPR unit near Volnovahka:

[Vet 0369]

I’m really behind the eight ball in catching up on replies in the thread, and apologize if I’m duplicating.

I’m sorry, but I must really disagree with this statement. One of the first actions of a repressive or dictatorial government to ensure “The People” cannot remove it is to ban private ownership of weapons that could be used to combat it. In my country, the U.S.A., we have enshrined in our Constitution that “The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” The purpose of that right was to ensure that no Tyrantical Federal Government would be able to disarm the People (Citizens). The statement that precedes those words “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a freeState,” was added at the end of the deliberations because one Representative was afraid a Federal Government could disband the States Militias, and refused to agree until it was added. So, whatever your views and beliefs regarding private ownership of weapons, it has been the law of the land in the U.S.A. For almost 300 years, and in fact, was required by all the Colonies since the early 17th Century. Are there detractors of that right? Yes, but whether a mass murder is committed using a firearm or by driving a semi tractor trailer through a crowd on a boulevard in Southern France, the murders were not committed by the firearm or the semi tractor.

I would go a step further and enshrine the right of the citizens to keep weapons and the responsibility of every citizen to train and serve, if necessary, in a National “Militia.”

[Haiduk]

Some narratives about Russian artillery

Roman Donik (civil volunteer, assist to 93rd/92nd brigades)

This is became a system when the enemy simply wiped off the face of the earth what could probably and quite tentatively be used by our military. From abandoned buildings to small tree-plants, which were also plowed by MLRS. Everything that can be used as observation points, or positions, is simply blown to pieces. Everything that could in any way interfere with the advance of their troops is simply erased into dust.

When a tank methodically "takes apart" a building. Just putting it together. Room by room, wall by wall. Simply making it impossible for people to occupie and use it. What's more, regardless of how much ammunition was spent there.

Everything that is on the heights, and everything that sticks out above the horizon line - is erased by arty. "Fire shaft", in the Russian performance, are beautiful words and terminology, which is beautiful in theory and cinema, but does not work in reality. Completely. In fact - just a massive and stupid destruction of everything on their path. Because in theory and in words, artillery fire begins to hit forward positions, then gradually moves 10-50 meters deep and goes further, all the way to command posts and close rears. And close to this fire shaft, the infantry should go under the cover of armored vehicles. And the movement of fire occurs every few minutes, during which the infantry must pass from one intermediate line to another. But the Russians are not able to implement this in practice, even at the stage of the transfer of strikes to the depth. Either worn barrels or obsolete ammunition whether it is unproper training of crews. Or maybe just using this method in Russian. With the condition of the barbaric mentality of the destroyers. Because there is no gradual transfer of fire into the depth, no infantry and armored vehicles that should follow closely behind the "fire shaft" in practice. There are simply hundreds, thousands of tons of iron falling from the sky on grids, erasing everything it hits. Then, when everything is dusted, armored vehicles approach, which are concentrated somewhere nearby. And then, from somewhere, our infantry climbs out and, with the support of artillery, f...s  and burns that armored vehicle. And everything starts again. Thousands of tons of shells and mines. And so until there is nowhere to hide from shelling in anticipation of an attack.

 

Serviceman of SOF

As practice shows, the enemy's advantage in artillery and heavy assets of destruction is very demoralizing. So that you understand, they did not stop the shelling in principle. They just constantly shell as f...ck. From Lysychansk, when there was literally only one road left, this motherf...s didn't spare anything. F..ck out whole package of Grad at two guys with drone? And maybe even four packages? Or to shot 40 artillery shells for some pick-up? That's how they work.

[Vet 0369]

5 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m really behind the eight ball in catching up on replies in the thread, and apologize if I’m duplicating.

I’m sorry, but I must really disagree with this statement. One of the first actions of a repressive or dictatorial government to ensure “The People” cannot remove it is to ban private ownership of weapons that could be used to combat it. In my country, the U.S.A., we have enshrined in our Constitution that “The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.” The purpose of that right was to ensure that no Tyrantical Federal Government would be able to disarm the People (Citizens). The statement that precedes those words “A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a freeState,” was added at the end of the deliberations because one Representative was afraid a Federal Government could disband the States Militias, and refused to agree until it was added. So, whatever your views and beliefs regarding private ownership of weapons, it has been the law of the land in the U.S.A. For almost 300 years, and in fact, was required by all the Colonies since the early 17th Century. Are there detractors of that right? Yes, but whether a mass murder is committed using a firearm or by driving a semi tractor trailer through a crowd on a boulevard in Southern France, the murders were not committed by the firearm or the semi tractor.

I would go a step further and enshrine the right of the citizens to keep weapons and the responsibility of every citizen to train and serve, if necessary, in a National “Militia.”

I’m sorry, I inadvertently deleted the quote of the post by Poesel on page 995.

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've seen the reports and I'm very curious about it.  This can't be anything more than a local attack as it isn't connected to anything else significant at the moment.  I assume local conditions were favorable and this is designed to distract Russian offensives elsewhere, especially just north of Donetsk?

Steve

Most of UKR actions are the same "local tactical steps". As minimum this is operation to push orcs further from Maryinka (or what remained from this town)

On the other hand Russians have allegedly taken Bohorodychne at least two days ago. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[sburke]

32 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

More specifically, Deputy Commander for Military-Political Affairs (Zampolit).

 

Lt. Col. Alexander Sorochinsky, probably 4th Guards Tank Division:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1546939635389054976?s=20&t=r1ZHrhlOedw2ts7W__rPMA

got it.  We still have these two we are looking for confirmation on that strike on the HQ 20th GDs MRD

Lt-Col Koval, the Division's operational staff chief 
Lt-Col Gordeev, the Divisions artillery chief

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some narratives about Russian artillery

Roman Donik (civil volunteer, assist to 93rd/92nd brigades)

This is became a system when the enemy simply wiped off the face of the earth what could probably and quite tentatively be used by our military. From abandoned buildings to small tree-plants, which were also plowed by MLRS. Everything that can be used as observation points, or positions, is simply blown to pieces. Everything that could in any way interfere with the advance of their troops is simply erased into dust.

When a tank methodically "takes apart" a building. Just putting it together. Room by room, wall by wall. Simply making it impossible for people to occupie and use it. What's more, regardless of how much ammunition was spent there.

Everything that is on the heights, and everything that sticks out above the horizon line - is erased by arty. "Fire shaft", in the Russian performance, are beautiful words and terminology, which is beautiful in theory and cinema, but does not work in reality. Completely. In fact - just a massive and stupid destruction of everything on their path. Because in theory and in words, artillery fire begins to hit forward positions, then gradually moves 10-50 meters deep and goes further, all the way to command posts and close rears. And close to this fire shaft, the infantry should go under the cover of armored vehicles. And the movement of fire occurs every few minutes, during which the infantry must pass from one intermediate line to another. But the Russians are not able to implement this in practice, even at the stage of the transfer of strikes to the depth. Either worn barrels or obsolete ammunition whether it is unproper training of crews. Or maybe just using this method in Russian. With the condition of the barbaric mentality of the destroyers. Because there is no gradual transfer of fire into the depth, no infantry and armored vehicles that should follow closely behind the "fire shaft" in practice. There are simply hundreds, thousands of tons of iron falling from the sky on grids, erasing everything it hits. Then, when everything is dusted, armored vehicles approach, which are concentrated somewhere nearby. And then, from somewhere, our infantry climbs out and, with the support of artillery, f...s  and burns that armored vehicle. And everything starts again. Thousands of tons of shells and mines. And so until there is nowhere to hide from shelling in anticipation of an attack.

 

Serviceman of SOF

As practice shows, the enemy's advantage in artillery and heavy assets of destruction is very demoralizing. So that you understand, they did not stop the shelling in principle. They just constantly shell as f...ck. From Lysychansk, when there was literally only one road left, this motherf...s didn't spare anything. F..ck out whole package of Grad at two guys with drone? And maybe even four packages? Or to shot 40 artillery shells for some pick-up? That's how they work.

 F...K

Its insane the ammount of ammo they are throwing away. But who can stay sane under such barrage?

I'm wondering, apart from mass dumb artillery, dont the Russians have more special "sniper" arty units , that use Krasnopol rounds for instance. Or their doctrine relies only on GPS missiles for accuracy.

 

[Huba]

I'm trying to find confirmation, but allegedly Zelensky thanked Polish MoD, who visited Kyiv today, for another batch of Krabs (most likely a full battalion).

Video kinda breaks OPSEC, but at this point it is not important:

Edit: OK I got the source - Zelensky said it in his daily address. I can barely uderstand Ukrainian, @Haiduk could you translate what he said exactly ? It's in the second video:

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Today our forces hit State Emergency Service base, occupied by Russians in Myrne village north from Melitopol, where Russians moved own vehicles from Melitopol airfield. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Edit: OK I got the source - Zelensky said it in his daily address. I can barely uderstand Ukrainian, @Haiduk could you translate what he said exactly ? It's in the second video:

He mentioned about Krabs, but without their number. I've read in other twitter about 10 vehiciles

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

HIMARS'o clock. Luhansk

[Vet 0369]

On 7/6/2022 at 12:44 PM, sburke said:

Elvis and I are pissed- that is a Flyers goalie, and we need all the help we can get.

Are the Flyers the Bruins farm team or training team?

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

HIMARS'o clock. Luhansk

Nice!