How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

57 minutes ago, poesel said:

No, why should it? The ‘industrial heartland’  of Europe goes from London through the Netherlands, Germany, Austria into northern Italy. That’s the big continuous line. 

There will be new areas in the CEE. Either those who have historically been there like Czech Republic, Krakow and Donbas or new ones.

Economics is not a zero sum game. The richer your neighbours / trading partners are, the richer you get yourself. I can very selfishly say, that I’m very happy about this development.

That exactly - that's why I'm a big fan of EU. It has it's problems, but in essence it is a framework that facilitates cooperation, to everybody's benefit.

Regarding the "shift to the east" in Europe. Well, it is happening a bit, cause in general CEE countries are growing faster economically than "Old Europe", mostly cause we started from much lower levels. Mathematically this moves the center of gravity a tad east, but it will be decades before we catch up.

Politically though, if Ukraine and Moldova (and perhaps Belarus?) are admitted to UE, together with some Balkan countries that are in the process of negotiations, this shift will be much more pronounced and sudden. I personally have mixed feelings regarding this, as we for sure don't need more Orbans (or Kaczynski's ) in UE. I guess a reform that will make more use of majority voting vs need for unanimity on certain decisions would be in order before the expansion. It's long overdue anyway.

57 minutes ago, poesel said:

The only place I know where this worked out is Switzerland. 
If you need militias to keep your government in check, you are doing something wrong. And that is all I’m going to say about this.

I assume @LongLeftFlank meant the classical purpose of militia, as to defend again external threats. I'm quite skeptical about increasing access to firearms for the broader population in general (in Poland, not gonna touch the US discussion on that with a 10-ft stick). If it was limited to military weapons held by reservists, I don't see a problem with it though. It would be quite a cultural change to go through, that's for sure.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

Probably propaganda :
"Russian Ministry of Defence claims destroying 2 HIMARS launchers at Malotaranivka in Donetsk region and 2 warehouses with ammunition"
https://t.me/rian_ru/169999
"Russian Defense Ministry: Russian missile attack destroyed 2 US-supplied HIMARS launchers and 2 ammunition depots near Malotaranovka in the DPR"

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Probably propaganda :
"Russian Ministry of Defence claims destroying 2 HIMARS launchers at Malotaranivka in Donetsk region and 2 warehouses with ammunition"
https://t.me/rian_ru/169999
"Russian Defense Ministry: Russian missile attack destroyed 2 US-supplied HIMARS launchers and 2 ammunition depots near Malotaranovka in the DPR"

haha

 

[Calamine Waffles]

So far they claim to have captured CAESARs (no proof), PzH 2000 (cited a non-existent BILD article as "proof") and now have destroyed HIMARS (with that video as "proof")...

[Grigb]

28 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Re the prisoner thing. To be totally fair, Ukraine did this as well in the early days of the war

29 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Re the prisoner thing. To be totally fair, Ukraine did this as well in the early days of the war

No. You are talking about guys with prison time like Zek or Muzhik. I am talking about Urka (Blatnoi). They were not zeks or muzhiks otherwise they would not demonstrate RU prison attributes so openly. They were urkas. And they wanted everybody to know that. The only other explanation is that they were wannabe urkas but again Armed Forces do not like urka culture. So, simple wannabe would not last long.

BTW urka is not tough prison guy. It is a weak morally disgusting person who thrives on exploiting weaker people. He does not like fighting, he likes robing, stealing, raping  and pillaging. That's why he spends a lot of time in prison where he got used to chifir. 

 

 

 

[Grigb]

Conflict Intelligence Team reports that RU motor rifle squad is changing from 7 to 9 men. Probably the two men will be added using reservists with short term contracts. 

[Calamine Waffles]

That's great...too bad a BMP can only fit 7 people inside.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

That's great...too bad a BMP can only fit 7 people inside.

7 dismounts. 9 most likely is 2 crew + 7 dismounts.

[Calamine Waffles]

My impression is that the motor rifle squad is separate from the crew. That's why it was previously a 7-man squad.

[Grigb]

It is one squad. AFAIR it is supposed to be 8 man squad - 2 crew + 6 dismounts. But it looks like at some point it became 2 crew + 5 dismounts. So, they are adding 2 to make full complement of dismounts. 

[Letter from Prague]

I just realised. The Russians have put up barges with radar reflectors next to Kerch bridge and then tested our a smoke screen.

They are literally defending it with smoke and mirrors  

[Grigb]

Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan] view on Kremlin endgame regarding Europe

Quote

The sudden aggravation of relations with Norway, which includes a completely absurd proposal to denounce the agreement on the transfer of the Russian water area to Norway year 10 ago (absurd in the sense that it is almost impossible to roll back such agreements) — all this may make some sense from the Kremlin's point of view. In any case, certainly in their parallel reality and metaverse there is a logic. Another question is that this logic does not fit to the universe where everyone else lives...

The Kremlin is desperately trying to crush Europe with energy hunger, actually blackmailing it with the winter collapse of this year. However, the Europeans are still holding on quite firmly, assuming (and quite reasonably) that they still have a certain resource of stability. Yes, not without losses and severe consequences, but still.

At the same time, it should be remembered that Norway largely provides its resources to Great Britain, which occupies almost 20 percent of the structure of Norwegian supplies. A blow to Norway is a blow to the UK, which adheres to the toughest position among European countries in relation to Russia.

In the Kremlin, the stars agree [powerful ones made decision] on the idea of creating not just a crisis, but a catastrophic situation in Europe in order to force it to agree to negotiations, lift at least some of the sanctions and forget its claims about Ukraine. The Kremlin has no other reason to go all-in: their policy has reached a point beyond which there is no space for any other solutions.

Hence the game in relation to Norway. A normal person, of course, will start twisting his finger at his temple: guys, you've already loaded yourself up to the neck with problems, why do you need Norway problem? But this is a normal person. There are no such people in the Kremlin for a long time — they weeded them out. Therefore, the logic is: "The barn is burning — burn and the hut" [all in, f*ck all attempt]. There will be troubles at the end, what difference does it make — one special operation or five. But what if we slip through?

PS. The same logic, by the way, applies to sharp aggravation of relations with Kazakhstan over its oil. This oil should also go to Europe, and they are also trying to block this channel. For the same purpose. Yes, President Tokayev spoke disrespectfully, and putting him in his place is one of the tasks. But the main one is the fight against Europe. Block everything that is possible. Yes, we will spoil relations with Kazakhstan. But this is in future, now the task is survival. If we survive, we will think [about Kazakhstan problem later]. If we won't survive — so, why think [about it] at all?

 

[Taranis]

"Dozens of columns of smoke rise above Siversk, pounded by Russian troops who took Lysychansk. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “LE MONDE”"

"Paratroopers from the 81st Battalion take shelter in a trench as a salvo from rocket launchers has just set fire to a nearby house. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “LE MONDE”"

* 81st Battalion ? 81st Air Assault Brigade !

"Equipment, including an anti-tank missile launcher and a PKM 7.62 heavy machine gun, belonging to the paratroopers of the 81st Airmobile Battalion. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “LE MONDE”"
* 81st Air Assault Brigade


"A paratrooper from the 81st Airmobile Battalion arrived in Siversk after fighting against Russian troops advancing towards Lyssytchansk, July 5, 2022. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR “THE WORLD”"
* 81st Air Assault Brigade

[Grigb]

According to RU Nat sources border skirmishes are becoming more intensive and damaging to Border troops. UKR forces started to use long range sniper fire (probably up to 1600 meters using Barret like rifles) supplementing it with grenade launchers fire (type unknown). Border troops cannot do anything due to the usual RU lack of normal sniper rifles.

Also, there are reports of a RU base attack by unknow group consisting of up to three men. They tried to penetrate the perimeter but were stopped by sentries' fire. Their weak return fire and poor tactics hint it was locals rather UKR forces. Seems locals are becoming fed up with the whole thing and looking for a way to arm themselves. 

[Huba]

23 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to RU Nat sources border skirmishes are becoming more intensive and damaging to Border troops. UKR forces started to use long range sniper fire (probably up to 1600 meters using Barret like rifles) supplementing it with grenade launchers fire (type unknown). Border troops cannot do anything due to the usual RU lack of normal sniper rifles.

Also, there are reports of a RU base attack by unknow group consisting of up to three men. They tried to penetrate the perimeter but were stopped by sentries' fire. Their weak return fire and poor tactics hint it was locals rather UKR forces. Seems locals are becoming fed up with the whole thing and looking for a way to arm themselves. 

One of the pundits from your translations was suggesting that this rise in activities favors Ukrainians, given it's  larger manpower reserve, and possibility to use TD forces in those skirmishes. Very well, there is justice in keeping the RU border under pressure. Regarding the "grenade launchers", Poland has reportedly transferred a batch of those bad boys a while ago, looks like perfect tool for the job:

 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Huba

[Harmon Rabb]

@Huba has warned us that sometimes Visegrád 24 uses provocative language.

I would like to ask our German friends or anyone else who knows something about German internal politics if this news is true, and if it is how much influence does this man have?

 

[Calamine Waffles]

My German friend says this guy is a member of Die Linke (i.e., the German Communist Party), so he has exactly 0 influence politically.

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

One of the pundits from your translations was suggesting that this rise in activities favors Ukrainians, given it's  larger manpower reserve, and possibility to use TD forces in those skirmishes.

It is difficult problem for RU even without manpower issues. Border troops are not regulars. They are relatively light and weak. RU regulars are too inflexible. Volunteer units are too uncontrollable. Finally, there is no war and border regions are not at war, so everybody must act as if it is peace time. 

22 minutes ago, Huba said:

Regarding the "grenade launchers", Poland has reportedly transferred a batch of those bad boys a while ago, looks like perfect tool for the job:

 

RU Nats complained that 60mm mortars were surprisingly effective during urban fights (RU declared them useless in the past). You rarely hear them shot and almost never hear them coming. So, they can often catch troops moving in the open. 

[chuckdyke]

Just switch on the subtitles Settings and select English. It is not bad at all. He explains the shoot and scoot tactics of German Artillery systems provided for the Ukranian army. Time is the essence here in view of the training required in my view.

 

[Taranis]

DOCUMENT ABOUT INTERREGION MOBILITY OF CONSCRIPT-ELIGIBLE MEN
"General Staff of Ukraine withdraw the document that restricts movements of conscription-eligible men between regions of Ukraine"

https://t.me/ukrpravda_news/19762
 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Taranis

[Calamine Waffles]

How not to destroy captured equipment:
 

 

[Grigb]

FSB is cleaning up RU Police

Quote

The FSB detained three Interior Ministry generals. The main thing.

On Tuesday, July 5, large-scale searches took place in the houses, apartments and offices of high-ranking employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in St. Petersburg, Leningrad Region, Moscow and Crimea. This was reported by several media outlets with reference to the press center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. The Central Office of the Investigative Committee of Russia initiated a criminal case on abuse of authority (within the framework of which the searches took place) back in 2020.

As a result of the searches, three heads of divisions were detained and dismissed from the system at once: Lieutenant General Sergey Umnov (assistant to the head of the Department of Vladimir Kolokoltsev), Major General Alexey Semenov (head of the traffic Police of St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region), and Ivan Abakumov (former deputy head of the Main Department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs for St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region).
 

It does not look like they were plotting something. Otherwise, they would be dead. Tea leaves tell me two scenarios:

• They become too loyal to local authorities (decentralized Party clan)  
• FSB is preparing for brutal repressions and takes out those who would not shoot at people.

[Aragorn2002]

12 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well done sir!  I would do much the same in your place.

But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure.

The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. 

For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills. Ukrainians seem cut from much the same cloth: tough, cheerful and adaptive! Not so different from how Americans used to think of themselves (and some still are).

... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point!

Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of  diversified, no-nonsense republics.

...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

With EU subsidies, mainly paid for by 'the old EU' they will get there. No doubt. 

The rest of the post isn't even worth answering.

Edited July 6, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Harmon Rabb]

40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

How not to destroy captured equipment:
 

 

Did this guy get his training playing Call of Duty?

[Aragorn2002]

5 hours ago, Huba said:

That exactly - that's why I'm a big fan of EU. It has it's problems, but in essence it is a framework that facilitates cooperation, to everybody's benefit.

Regarding the "shift to the east" in Europe. Well, it is happening a bit, cause in general CEE countries are growing faster economically than "Old Europe", mostly cause we started from much lower levels. Mathematically this moves the center of gravity a tad east, but it will be decades before we catch up.

Politically though, if Ukraine and Moldova (and perhaps Belarus?) are admitted to UE, together with some Balkan countries that are in the process of negotiations, this shift will be much more pronounced and sudden. I personally have mixed feelings regarding this, as we for sure don't need more Orbans (or Kaczynski's ) in UE. I guess a reform that will make more use of majority voting vs need for unanimity on certain decisions would be in order before the expansion. It's long overdue anyway.

 

I agree. Mixed feelings. But probably inevitable, if we don't want to see those countries end up behind the other side of the new iron curtain. Europe should do wise not to forget that we need each other for everybody's safety and we should at the same time reduce  the role of the US in Europe as much as possible. Apart from the fact that the US has other worries, they will also always go for  their own interests. And who can blame them.