How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

BBC follow-up to their report on the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment’s casualties:

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by akd

[Grigb]

Caesar indeed deeply impressed RU. The guy who threatened London says the following regarding Caesar (He is retired Lieutenant general and Duma member). 

Quote

The weapons that NATO supplies to Ukraine, now it is CAESAR self-propelled gun, it is a good artillery system compared to M-777 howitzers. [M777 is towed system so for RU it is not cool] Therefore, we took her to Nizhny Tagil [Famous RU AFV factory], we need her to be no worse with us [looks like he wanted to say they want something similar] and may be even better [looks like they are not sure they can make it better - unusual admission for RU].

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

To celebrate today's good news from Snake Islands, here is something to laugh at from Master Dugin:

https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1542467966721265665

This is an excellent example of the thinking of an absolute fanatic. 

I just reminded myself of how old Dugin is, hoping that he might be close to departing this world for another one.  Sadly, he's a lot younger than I remember him being.  Looks like he will be around longer than Putin.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

Edited June 30, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Homo_Ferricus]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Caesar indeed deeply impressed RU. The guy who threatened London says the following regarding Caesar (He is retired Lieutenant general and Duma member). 

 

 

 

Is this a suggestion that RU did indeed capture a CAESAR intact? I recall reading that claim a few pages back.

[Grigb]

Just now, Homo_Ferricus said:

Is this a suggestion that RU did indeed capture a CAESAR intact? I recall reading that claim a few pages back.

Until they can confirm it with at least a photo (better video) do not take any RU claims seriously. But the fact they are saying Caesar is good and they want something similar means Caser indeed caused a lot of pain to RU. 

[Taranis]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Caesar indeed deeply impressed RU. The guy who threatened London says the following regarding Caesar (He is retired Lieutenant general and Duma member). 

 

 

 

Interesting thank you. Since the Russians are not able to produce good thermal sights for their tanks and microchips I don't see how they could do better 

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is an excellent example of the thinking of an absolute fanatic. 

I just reminded myself of how old Dugin is, hoping that he might be close to departing this world for another one.  Sadly, he's a lot younger than I remember him being.  Looks like he will be around longer than Putin.

Steve

His age won't change his final destination.

[Taranis]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Until they can confirm it with at least a photo (better video) do not take any RU claims seriously. But the fact they are saying Caesar is good and they want something similar means Caser indeed caused a lot of pain to RU. 

I agree with you. And then if the Russians had captured a CAESAR, we would have pictures of it everywhere! I don't see how they could have gotten so deep into the lines to capture one and come away with it intact. It's not the kind of piece that hangs out on the front line. As a reminder, the CAESARs are assigned to an artillery brigade, so not at all something in the front line.

[Haiduk]

Oscar for this action and special effects! 

PS. Video is not real, but... ))))

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Oscar for this action and special effects! 

PS. Video is not real, but... ))))

 

On the sea new threats await too:

 

[acrashb]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Another breaking news from the NATO summit. Will they dare to challenge the blockade, when Snake Island and RU surface fleet is out of the way? 

It's less about daring and more about insurance.  Who will underwrite the cargo, vessel, and crew?  Perhaps some government(s) will  step up, hard to see any private entity with that high a risk appetite.

Something sinks, it's easy for the RA to say 'not us, must have sprung a leak'.  Not credibly, but so what?  They'll do it anyway.

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Taranis said:

I agree with you. And then if the Russians had captured a CAESAR, we would have pictures of it everywhere! I don't see how they could have gotten so deep into the lines to capture one and come away with it intact. It's not the kind of piece that hangs out on the front line. As a reminder, the CAESARs are assigned to an artillery brigade, so not at all something in the front line.

I would say it was either propaganda op for a moral boosting purpose - do not worry, comrades, we captured it and soon will have something similar. Or result of usual solder rumor mill - friend of my friend saw it in the secret train at night heading east toward Tagil. 

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, acrashb said:

It's less about daring and more about insurance.  Who will underwrite the cargo, vessel, and crew?  Perhaps some government(s) will  step up, hard to see any private entity with that high a risk appetite.

Something sinks, it's easy for the RA to say 'not us, must have sprung a leak'.  Not credibly, but so what?  They'll do it anyway.

Well that's a sine qua non, but on top of that you have to make a political decision to take the risk. If Russians attack and hit/sink a ship flying a NATO country flag, we'll have a problem much bigger than insurance. I honestly don't think they will, but for sure the first run (of the convoy perhaps?) will be one of the most tense moments of the whole war so far.

[Grigb]

17 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Oscar for this action and special effects! 

PS. Video is not real, but... ))))

 

The actor voice skill is excellent! I want the full movie.

[mosuri]

5 hours ago, billbindc said:

A notable caveat to the MOU btw Turkey/Finland/Sweden is that the Turkish parliament has to pass a bill on the accession. Expect some horse trading to happen there.

Oh for sure. This is nowhere near over.

[FancyCat]

57 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Caesar indeed deeply impressed RU. The guy who threatened London says the following regarding Caesar (He is retired Lieutenant general and Duma member). 

 

 

 

They captured a Caesar? 

Edit: gah, what I get for posting a reply without finishing to the current posts. 

Edited June 30, 2022 by FancyCat

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Would it be fair to say that it's also about the nature of this war that fielding more infantry won't really translate into more battlefield success, since it's now mostly a "war of the weapons systems" - infantry used as cannon fodder to hold thin lines and probe ahead in order to call in artillery, rather than to actually do any combined arms warfare that would require well trained troops?

I would say it's the opposite.  The primary problem Russia's been facing is a lack of infantry.  It's why they aren't making much progress after they expend tens of thousands of shells.  Artillery can clear an opening, but it can't take or hold it.  Tanks can't either.

However, poorly trained and equipped infantry is nearly as bad as having not enough infantry at all IMHO.  A useless soldier consumes just as much food, clothing, equipment, pay, weaponry, fuel to transport, medical care, death benefits, etc. as a well trained soldier.  Why go through all that investment to get a poor result on the battlefield?

2 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm getting the feeling that this war is basically WW1 with drones. Neither side is able to crush the opponent with tanks, neither with airpower. So it's trench warfare with artillery firing away, more accurately and deadly now than back then, and for this reason we're not seeing any massed troops or human wave attacks.

The issue for Russia is that it doesn't have the manpower for such a strategy.  It also doesn't have the national will to even try.  Which is why I keep saying that Russia can't fight a long war and Putin *clearly* understands that at least at some level.  The conundrum Putin has been facing for months is that there is no way to avoid a long war with Ukraine, yet a long war is the only possible hope he has of winning.  Eventually he's either got to gamble on mobilization, he's going to have to surrender, or he's going to be ousted for attempting one or the other.

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The issue for Russia is that it doesn't have the manpower for such a strategy.  It also doesn't have the national will to even try.  Which is why I keep saying that Russia can't fight a long war and Putin *clearly* understands that at least at some level.  The conundrum Putin has been facing for months is that there is no way to avoid a long war with Ukraine, yet a long war is the only possible hope he has of winning.  Eventually he's either got to gamble on mobilization, he's going to have to surrender, or he's going to be ousted for attempting one or the other.

Steve

Or he gambles that the West and Ukraine blink first. 

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

However, poorly trained and equipped infantry is nearly as bad as having not enough infantry at all IMHO.  A useless soldier consumes just as much food, clothing, equipment, pay, weaponry, fuel to transport, medical care, death benefits, etc. as a well trained soldier.  Why go through all that investment to get a poor result on the battlefield?

Steve

I think Russian MoD has found a way around that... just don't provide any of the above.

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is an excellent example of the thinking of an absolute fanatic. 

I just reminded myself of how old Dugin is, hoping that he might be close to departing this world for another one.  Sadly, he's a lot younger than I remember him being.  Looks like he will be around longer than Putin.

Steve

People like Dugin don't simply pass away, they change their form into Sacred Tree or Holy Mushrom venerated by successive generations.

 

Pro-Z commentators are going nuts over Snake Island...it really seems our friend Grigb  may be on right track regarding nationalists turning back on Putin. They are to weak to seriously influence things in Russian policy, I am afraid, but the feeling of being tricked is already visible for week or so.

 

Edited June 30, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, FancyCat said:

Or he gambles that the West and Ukraine blink first. 

Clearly that's what he's been hoping for since March, but it doesn't seem very likely.

Strategically Russia seems to be in a similar position as it was operationally around Kyiv.  Clearly the current plan isn't working, but nobody can come up with an alternative that leads to success.  So they keep on doing the same thing and hoping for a different result.  Eventually the "same thing" is no longer feasible and a hard choice has to be made from an even weaker position.  It's a really stupid way to go about things.

In the case of Kyiv the Russians kept up the assault even though they knew damned well it wouldn't result in taking Kyiv.  They hoped it could at least be useful in forcing Ukraine to surrender, but in the end they weakened themselves so much that they had to retreat.

In the strategic situation we have now, Russia needs hundreds of thousands of new soldiers and associated equipment to have any hope of squashing Ukraine's conventional military capacity.  But that requires mobilization and mobilization is not something Putin thinks is viable.  This is leading to the military continuing to grind itself into the ground without doing much to improve the overall situation.  The evidence that this strategy can't last much longer is all over the battlefield, yet Russia keeps on doing the same old, same old.  Not too long from now Ukraine is going to force Russia to change its strategy.  What happens at that point is going to be very interesting!

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

People like Dugin don't simply pass away, they change their form into Sacred Tree or Holy Mushrom venerated by successive generations.

 

Pro-Z commentators are going nuts over Snake Island...it really seems our friend Grigb  may be on right track regarding nationalists turning back on Putin. They are to weak to seriously influence things in Russian policy, I am afraid, but the feeling of being tricked is already visible for week or so.

 

For all you budding imperialistic autocrats in training, note that when your propaganda machine starts trying to spin a positive story amidst a disaster, try very hard to not make it something that the enemy can easily take away from you in a way that isn't possible to hide under the rug.

Snake Island was never defendable by either side.  It's loss was inevitable.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

I see how my post can be interpreted in that way... I modified my post a bit because it didn't nake much sense. Proof reading helps... My intention was not to discredit Kraze or making up some strawman argument. I was referring to some of Kraze's previous posts. If you look through them, you will find that he more or less literally said that Russians in general have some those negative traits. That is something I find extremely irritating and not very helpful for the discussion. Which is a pitty because of Kraze's otherwise valuable insights.

I get it. Apologies if I was too aggressive.

[Centurian52]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

Please don't always state so indifferentiated stuff about everything Russian. I guess they won't suffer too much from hurt feelings but for me it just doesn't add anything useful to the discussion. Of course it is possible to have agreements with Russians in general. It is not like they were somehow genetically unable to. There were quite a lot in the past that weren't broken. I wouldn't trust the Putin, his cronies and quite a few others farther than I can lob a 155mm shell at them but that doesn't mean we can never try to reach an agreement with any Russian ever again - which would be a very bleak outlook indeed.

EDIT: Modified one sentence. Didn't make much sense. My bad.

Fair point. It might be more accurate to say that an agreement with the current Russian regime is impossible. Of course I seriously doubt that very many people mean "every individual Russian throughout time" when they go around talking about "the Russians" anyway. In any case, the Russian government really has broken enough agreements in the past that it really is impossible to negotiate with them at this point. Any agreement made with them will be broken as soon as it suits them. Perhaps that might change if the current regime is overthrown. I would certainly like to see a future where we can be on friendly terms with a reasonable Russia.