How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Is there a better source for judging the sentiments of various regions of Ukraine towards belonging to either Ukraine or Russia than this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum#By_region

Albeit from 1991.  Some regions have been rather manipulated since then?

[Huba]

It looks like Finland, Sweden and Turkiye reached an agreement. Press conference to follow in a moment:

 

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

What happened to Germany was not entirely justified, but in case of Russia this is exactly what they deserve. Will that radicalize them even more? Perhaps, but in comparison to Nazi Germany, Russia is really very weak when compared to the countries that oppose it. After Ukraine is admitted to NATO, Russia can stew in its revanchism as long as it pleases.

What I'm afraid is rather a North Korean scenario. If Russia has enough internal stability to suffer a total defeat in Ukraine (i.e. being pushed out of Donbas and Crimea) and not collapse politically, what then? A decade of Sitzkrieg with occasional cruise missile bombardment or cross-border raid? Driving on Moscow?

It's a worrying scenario. North Korea might look cartoonish in comparison right now, but imagine that with the size and weight of Russia. 

In regards to comparison with Germany, pre WW2 Germany was pretty weak as well. And a more "normal" western country before getting sick with the national socialism poison. It didn't take many years to become what it became.  Russia is a lot crazier country as it is, a mystery in a riddle as Churchill had once said and any prediction of where this will lead "contained" for a few years is risky. All these years, having relatives that went through the WW2, civil wars, dictatorships etc I have been thinking how incredibly lucky our generation was and the thought that all this was an temporary illusion comes from time to time. I hope we are not the unluckiest ever but maybe it's just my pessimistic self again. 

[Grigb]

19 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Is there a better source for judging the sentiments of various regions of Ukraine towards belonging to either Ukraine or Russia than this?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum#By_region

It is not a good source regarding UKR sentiment. It has critical flaw - it was conducted before Putin came to power. 

Let me quote Girkin when he was told that Crimea was very pro-RU

Quote

"I have been in Crimea since February 21. Only Berkut [Pro-Ru UKR riot suppression unit] went over to the side of the population, the rest, the Ministry of Internal Affairs were under the authority of Kiev and carried out orders. Yes, they did it reluctantly, carelessly. [But] I did not see any support from the state authorities in Simferopol, where I was specifically, there was nothing. The militia gathered [Crimes] deputies [by force], what can I say. To force them into the hall for pro-RU vote. Yes, I was one of the commanders of these militias. I'm not talking about the army at all: it obeyed Kiev, and continued to obey. Also reluctantly, I negotiated with them. Most of the units remained loyal to Kiev and withdrew from the territory of Crimea," Girkin said.

 As you can see, even so-called pro-RU Crimean deputies did not want to join RU. They were simply forced to vote properly. The same can be said about pro-Ru Luka supporters in Belarus - they are against joining RU.

Idea that pro-RU neighbors love to be part of RU is greatly exaggerated.

   

[Vanir Ausf B]

Interesting speech by the new UK Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chief-the-general-staff-speech-at-rusi-land-warfare-conference

"The scale of the war in Ukraine is unprecedented. 103 Battalion Tactical Groups committed. Up to 33,000 Russians dead, wounded, missing or captured. A casualty rate of up to 200 per day amongst the Ukrainian defenders. 77,000 square kilometres of territory seized – 43% of the total landmass of the Baltic states. Ammunition expenditure rates that would exhaust the combined stockpiles of several NATO countries in a matter of days.

"this year alone we have supplied 9500 anti-tank missiles, of which over 5000 were NLAW. We have already provided UK-based training for 650 AFU soldiers, and in the coming months, the British Army will deliver battle-winning skills to a further 10,000 Its just started.

Russia often starts wars badly. And because Russia wages war at the strategic, not the tactical level – its depth and resilience means it can suffer any number of campaigns, battles and engagements lost, regenerate and still ultimately prevail.

In Ukraine we’ve seen the limitations of deterrence by punishment. It has reinforced the importance of deterrence through denial - we must stop Russia seizing territory - rather than expecting to respond to a land grab with a delayed counteroffensive.

To succeed, the British Army, in conjunction with our NATO allies and partners, must be in-place or at especially high readiness - ideally a mix of both. Tripwires aren’t enough. If we fail to deter, there are no good choices given the cost of a potential counterattack and the associated nuclear threat. We must, therefore, meet strength with strength from the outset and be unequivocally prepared to fight for NATO territory.

If this battle came, we would likely be outnumbered at the point of attack and fighting like hell. Standoff air, maritime or cyber fires are unlikely to dominate on their own – Land will still be the decisive domain. And though I bow to no one in my advocacy for the need for game changing digital transformation, to put it bluntly, you can’t cyber your way across a river.

Success will be determined by combined arms and multi-domain competence. And mass."

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

More Pzh2000 coming. I didn't expect this and definitely not this soon.

 

[FancyCat]

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh man, that is a good point - everyone forgets the infrastructure.

God, we could find ourselves propping up some SOB in Russia that we can live with before this is done.  I guess it just re-underlines my point: this is a very long term massive crisis management situation, and we need to be much better than we were last time.

Well shoot, I remember writing a post in this thread where I post out that Russia will need tons of money/investment by China to prop up no matter what and that may not even make up for what it exports if it becomes a basket case aside from being a black hole of corruption.

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

However, if what you say above it true then this highlights the requirement for regime change even further.  First, we cannot re-normalize with the Putin regime and not threaten our own Endstates, more so if that regime truly believes the "third pole" theory, a "USSR v 2.0", then they must be removed completely, as a third (unstable) power pole is 1) irrational and 2)destabilizing to the point it threatens our interest directly.

I think that the cynical kleptocracy that Putin and his gang have undertaken does not signal a Father of an Greater Empire narrative in the least.  It looks more like "public consumption bullsh*t while we get take everything we can".  But if I am wrong it does not change the Strategic Endstates as noted...it highlights them. 

The Russian Tsar was Father over all the state and people, that includes ownership of the land, people and state. I don't see too much a difference in how they take between a Tsar who owns and takes what he wants due to divine right and a mafia boss who does the same through coercion and power.

Hmm, not sure one can classify the desire of the Russian elite to reclaim a 3rd pole in the world as irrational. Destabilizing to the existing world order, sure, but irrational, no. As for removal....while yes, it's important to define goals first, it's essential to be realistic, and realistically Russia will not give up her nuclear weapons. North Korea has already illustrated the ability to be a isolated state and exist, I see no reason Russia can't fall the same path and exist with nukes. External removal is therefore impossible. Only internal conflict can bring about a state more friendly/accommodating to the west and there is no certainty that the internal structure allows for such a state to exist.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure what part of this is "neat little bow".

In the same way we can see Putin's regime craft their messaging to bolster domestic support for their goals, it would be folly for the West, to even say in a governmental sense what your saying now. There isn't any point in saying Russia must be demilitarized, or stripped to the status of a puppet state or suggest that it's a inferior state even if it's stated to be impossible to enact or unrealistic, it's as goal defining as Putin's intention to reconquer the Russian Empire. It brings up distrust, it hardens positions, it is unproductive, it is only fuel for a paranoid actor to absorb. 

Obviously this is a wargaming forum, none of us sit near any levers of power or influence so it's not a big deal except maybe for DMS.

But Biden was quick to backtrack on regime change in Russia, and that was the right decision, at the end of the day, no fuel must be given to paranoid Russia about being destroyed or overthrown or turned into homosexual degeneracy (Russian media likes to bring this up a lot). But yes we are broadly in principle on what will happen, except I want to emphasize the West may get failure despite doing everything "right" simply cause there is another actor involved.

[Jammason]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

A very common (and false) opinion in Western countries that the inhabitants of the eastern part of Ukraine do not want to live as part of Ukraine. This should not be surprising, since Russia has invested heavily in promoting this opinion. DPR and LPR conscripts fight under duress. In the ranks of the DPR and LPR troops, they are held back by fear of reprisals.

So the hot war of independence for DPR & LPR that started in 2014 (and gained momentum with civilian protests) is all Russian puppeteering and the puppets actually don't want independence at all? I'm curious: If a honest referendum (impossible, I know, but humor me) was held in DPR and LPR today, what is your percentage estimate of voters who would favor rejoining Ukraine over independence?

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Jammason said:

Further, “righteous points” are scored by Russia with the change in objectives (to be sure, it requires amnesia regarding the initial invasion or a belief in the military “feint” line, which is being swallowed by the US far right): They are simply acting like the French did in support of the American Revolution (yes, the French committed troops and deployed their navy in addition to sending money and weapons). These poor Russian-speaking—and increasingly Russian identifying—republics are being denied their freedom; we, noble mother Russia, are just helping them fight for independence.

Welcome to the forum!

While you make a good argument, the major flaw I see in you’re argument is that, while there might have been some French incitement of the U.S. Revolution, it was the English colonists who rebelled (and in fact only one ninth of the population actively participated in revolt, a minority by any calculation). France didn’t contribute money or military forces until the war was almost settled and the Colonies proved they could win. In fact, the former French Colony of New France (in particular Arcadia) that Britain had taken only 15 years before the Revolution, considered joining the Thirteen Colonies in revolt, and decided not to even though they had reason to (the British were vicious in their repression of the French speaking inhabitants in Acadia). Arcadia would have been a perfect breeding ground for French incitement, but it doesn’t appear to have happened. So, your attempted corollary to the French helping in the U.S. Revolution fails.

[hcrof]

6 minutes ago, Jammason said:

So the hot war of independence for DPR & LPR that started in 2014 (and gained momentum with civilian protests) is all Russian puppeteering and the puppets actually don't want independence at all? I'm curious: If a honest referendum (impossible, I know, but humor me) was held in DPR and LPR today, what is your percentage estimate of voters who would favor rejoining Ukraine over independence?

The problem is that nobody even knows how many people live in the donbas, let alone their political stance. We know there are pro russian people there, but a majority? And what about all the pro Ukraine people who left after Russia took over? 

[FancyCat]

As much as we crow about NATO defeating Russia, the UK Chief of the General Staff is entirely correct to frame that war starting between NATO and Russia itself is a failure for the West. Scenarios where Russia can even think to conquer Finland, the Baltics must be made unthinkable. Putin must not be able to bet he can seize the Baltics and dare the West to try and retake it. In a sense, not only has the war in Ukraine awakened Europe to the reality of a hostile Russia, but that war itself is absolutely destructive and should be avoided at all costs.

3 minutes ago, Jammason said:

So the hot war of independence for DPR & LPR that started in 2014 (and gained momentum with civilian protests) is all Russian puppeteering and the puppets actually don't want independence at all? I'm curious: If a honest referendum (impossible, I know, but humor me) was held in DPR and LPR today, what is your percentage estimate of voters who would favor rejoining Ukraine over independence?

To be frank, it shouldn't matter what the population of a area desires, as we see far too often ethnic cleansing and other acts of mass violence are undertaken to cause that potential referendum to change results. Ukraine gained independence in 1991, and Russia accepted it, made agreements with it for the upkeep of the Black Sea Fleet, it has no right to intervene in the affairs of Ukraine like it did in 2014. If it wanted to pressure Ukraine's government to do things differently, it had so many options aside from invasion or military action. Economic sanctions, appeals to the UN for world cooperation. As a UN security council member, it would have been strongly noted. Instead Putin amassed troops and invaded.

[Jammason]

1 minute ago, Vet 0369 said:

Welcome to the forum!

While you make a good argument, the major flaw I see in you’re argument is that, while there might have been some French incitement of the U.S. Revolution, it was the English colonists who rebelled (and in fact only one ninth of the population actively participated in revolt, a minority by any calculation). France didn’t contribute money or military forces until the war was almost settled and the Colonies proved they could win. In fact, the former French Colony of New France (in particular Arcadia) that Britain had taken only 15 years before the Revolution, considered joining the Thirteen Colonies in revolt, and decided not to even though they had reason to (the British were vicious in their repression of the French speaking inhabitants in Acadia). Arcadia would have been a perfect breeding ground for French incitement, but it doesn’t appear to have happened. So, your attempted corollary to the French helping in the U.S. Revolution fails.

Note that I'm not making that analogy, I'm saying it can be used (if imperfectly) by Russia to sway minds on the fence. And while I do think it's an imperfect analogy, the Russian devil's advocate would counter your point that "it was the English colonists who rebelled" by saying it is the LPR/DPR who rebelled, and their brave fighting from 2014-2022 gave us proof they could win, which is why we came in now.

I'm not so sure all will agree the analogy's failure is as complete as you think.

But how Russia rationalizes their actions to the world isn't the main point I was trying to make anyway. It is instead the move to support forces fighting for their independence is militarily smarter, more achievable given RU assets and liabilities, and is a much better "look" for Russia. The thread might benefit from separating this phase of the war from the initial stupidity and ineptitude.

[acrashb]

40 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Interesting speech by the new UK Chief of the General Staff, General Sir Patrick Sanders.

[...]because Russia wages war at the strategic, not the tactical level – its depth and resilience means it can suffer any number of campaigns, battles and engagements lost, regenerate and still ultimately prevail.

[...]

In Ukraine we’ve seen the limitations of deterrence by punishment. It has reinforced the importance of deterrence through denial

 

Two very important points.  While I hope as much as anyone that the RA experiences a systemic collapse mid- to late-August, if not then this will be a long war.

In a very hopeful counterpoint, Turkey has lifted it's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.  I assume Turkey got what it wanted, but in any event this is a fantastic development for containing Russia.

https://nationalpost.com/news/nato-to-boost-rapid-reaction-force-ukraine-military-support

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by acrashb

[Haiduk]

Kyiv, 26th June. Moment of the second missile falls on the area of "Artem" factory, but more likely hit residential house

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

The Russian Tsar was Father over all the state and people, that includes ownership of the land, people and state. I don't see too much a difference in how they take between a Tsar who owns and takes what he wants due to divine right and a mafia boss who does the same through coercion and power.

Hmm, not sure one can classify the desire of the Russian elite to reclaim a 3rd pole in the world as irrational. Destabilizing to the existing world order, sure, but irrational, no. As for removal....while yes, it's important to define goals first, it's essential to be realistic, and realistically Russia will not give up her nuclear weapons. North Korea has already illustrated the ability to be a isolated state and exist, I see no reason Russia can't fall the same path and exist with nukes. External removal is therefore impossible. Only internal conflict can bring about a state more friendly/accommodating to the west and there is no certainty that the internal structure allows for such a state to exist.

The Tsar was accepted by the people as legitimate for centuries, the crime boss might have a few decades (although there are counter-examples in Africa).

3rd pole as irrational:  Global power poles are a zero sum game.  So we have Russia at with a GDP less than that of Canada, and 4 times the population, and has been basically flat since 2014. (https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/, https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp#:~:text=GDP in Russia averaged 972.41,195.91 USD Billion in 1999.   Dependent basically on a single, and vulnerable energy sector.  It military was a Potemkin façade, its Diplomatic power is nearing coal-miners ass level dirty, with crumbling infrastructure and massive internal corruption.   Russia is almost completely lacking in inductive soft-power and its hard power is becoming a laughing stock.  It had sharp power but decided to bash it against the brick wall that is Ukraine.

That country is not going to take on the West, nor China and is no where near able to create a regional, let alone global power pole.  In fact all Russia really has is Europe's over-reliance on its cheap gas, and nukes - no high tech, service or manufacturing industry to speak of and any it did has been clobbered by this fiasco.  It has a largely commodities based industry, which it also likely blew up.

Its trade agreements are basically local (near abroad) or a rogues gallery (Iran), and it invaded a major trading partner:

http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicSearchByMemberResult.aspx?MemberCode=643&lang=1&redirect=1

This thinking it can create a global power pole is like What We Do In The Shadows - "we control four houses on this street and one street over."  So unless Putin and his cronies are completely irrational, I strongly suspect they already know these numbers...and this war made them so much worse.  

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

In the same way we can see Putin's regime craft their messaging to bolster domestic support for their goals, it would be folly for the West, to even say in a governmental sense what your saying now. There isn't any point in saying Russia must be demilitarized, or stripped to the status of a puppet state or suggest that it's a inferior state even if it's stated to be impossible to enact or unrealistic, it's as goal defining as Putin's intention to reconquer the Russian Empire. It brings up distrust, it hardens positions, it is unproductive, it is only fuel for a paranoid actor to absorb. 

Obviously this is a wargaming forum, none of us sit near any levers of power or influence so it's not a big deal except maybe for DMS.

But Biden was quick to backtrack on regime change in Russia, and that was the right decision, at the end of the day, no fuel must be given to paranoid Russia about being destroyed or overthrown or turned into homosexual degeneracy (Russian media likes to bring this up a lot). But yes we are broadly in principle on what will happen, except I want to emphasize the West may get failure despite doing everything "right" simply cause there is another actor involved.

"Distrust and hardens positions"...I think we are already there.  Let me be clear, this is a war between Russian and the West right now, as much as it is between Russia and Ukraine - and in a war, distrust and hardening are virtues.  We are already there - Russia is already paranoid; sh*t is blowing up in their own country, and tens of thousands of its sons are dead, and we provided the ISR and systems to make it happen - does anyone think there is a "normal" after that?  We win this by removing the paranoid actor and trying to find another one we can tolerate - because spontaneous democracy is not realistic - while containing (etc) Russia. 

I think this is the crux of the issue, and perhaps we can agree to disagree.  I am of the opinion that we are already past the point of rational negotiation of an end-state with the current Russian regime - we passed it when Russian invaded a neighbor and committed war crimes on a massive scale and the again when we directly supported, and continue to support, the killing of Russians...in large numbers.  Our unstated war goals are in line with what I wrote previously, if we are willing to admit it or not, or we even know it yet, or not.  

I cannot say how we must do what needs to be done, only that it needs to be done.  Russia must be compressed and contained, the current regime must go, the crimes of this war must be answered for, and its teeth must be dulled to the point that we can do business in some sort of regional security dynamic that works.  I get the sense that we in the West are still seeing this through some sort of odd - aggressive-discourse-until-it-is-over, a soft war like a game of sport in which we are spectators and where we can all shake hands when it is over.  No, Russia must lose this war, badly, but not too badly or we will lose.  

We will be crisis managing this until such a point as all sides negotiate with what comes next:  what can we live with, what can Russia live with, what can Ukraine live with - in the end I doubt anyone will be happy but if we stand together and are really lucky, we might get an outcome that does not revisit this mess in 25 years, or lead directly to nuclear war. 

However, do not take this as some sort of hawkish "ra-ra".  Russia cannot fall apart completely for all the reasons in my first post this morning.  We want stability and that will take a tricky balancing act.  Russia needs to hurt badly enough, be contained and compressed but needs to function - that is the middle ground.  It is going to be difficult to find, perhaps impossible...but that is the requirement; it gets much worse if we fail.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Centurian52]

35 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Two very important points.  While I hope as much as anyone that the RA experiences a systemic collapse mid- to late-August, if not then this will be a long war.

In a very hopeful counterpoint, Turkey has lifted it's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.  I assume Turkey got what it wanted, but in any event this is a fantastic development for containing Russia.

https://nationalpost.com/news/nato-to-boost-rapid-reaction-force-ukraine-military-support

 

That's good to hear. I would hate to have to choose between having Turkey in NATO and having Finland and Sweden in NATO. Effectively having control of both the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea will be very helpful in making Russia think twice before picking on a NATO country.

[Taranis]

Explosion reported at airbase in Kursk

https://t.me/mig41/18786

"Kursk governor Starovoit claims Ukrainian drone shot down east to Kursk at 22:17 local time"

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Taranis

[The_MonkeyKing]

54 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Two very important points.  While I hope as much as anyone that the RA experiences a systemic collapse mid- to late-August, if not then this will be a long war.

In a very hopeful counterpoint, Turkey has lifted it's opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.  I assume Turkey got what it wanted, but in any event this is a fantastic development for containing Russia.

https://nationalpost.com/news/nato-to-boost-rapid-reaction-force-ukraine-military-support

 

There was very little if any concrete consesions given to Turkey from Finland and Sweden. Only vague statements that Turkey can read as it wants for press purposes. Absolutely nothing will change in practice for Sweden and Finland. Almost direct quote from Finland's president by to way.

[Haiduk]

Russia, relying on some western politic and business groups launched information campaign in western media with a goal to influence public opinion and hesitate the line of support of Ukraine.

1. Peskov, press-secreter of Putin, made a statement that "Special military operation will finished to the end of day if persident of Ukraine give an order to "nationalists" and AFU to lay down a weapon, reject from NATO and western support and weapon supply, agree to significantly reduce the army, agree with Russian status of Crimea and Donbas."

2. CNN issues an article that some representatives of White House told they don't believe Ukriane will be able to fight back lost territories.

3. Russians obviously forced the captured in Mariupol acting commander of 36th marines brigade to descriditate defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, UKR command in the interview. They also forced him to say that Azov burned the bodies of "foreign merceneries" on Azovstal plant. This interview oviously prepare for sharing in western media. 

4. NYT issued an article about problems in UKR army with communication and ineffectity of western aid. 

Next days likely similar articles will be issued in other large media. Politico (many it authors tied with Russia), Bloomberg, Reuters, Bild. All theese articles likely will be rely on more massive missile strikes, which will hit more and more cviliann objects.  

 

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Explosion reported at airbase in Kursk

https://t.me/mig41/18786

"Kursk governor Starovoit claims Ukrainian drone shot down east to Kursk at 22:17 local time"

 

Looks like the airbase was hit hard. There's a huge pillar of smoke, and multiple secondary explosions visible in the video. The base is exactly 100km from the UA border in Sumy region, so probably a suicide drone(s), or maybe Tochka?

 

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russia, relying on some western politic and business groups launched information campaign in western media with a goal to influence public opinion and hesitate the line of support of Ukraine.

1. Peskov, press-secreter of Putin, made a statement that "Special military operation will finished to the end of day if persident of Ukraine give an order to "nationalists" and AFU to lay down a weapon, reject from NATO and western support and weapon supply, agree to significantly reduce the army, agree with Russian status of Crimea and Donbas."

2. CNN issues an article that some representatives of White House told they don't believe Ukriane will be able to fight back lost territories.

3. Russians obviously forced the captured in Mariupol acting commander of 36th marines brigade to descriditate defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, UKR command in the interview. They also forced him to say that Azov burned the bodies of "foreign merceneries" on Azovstal plant. This interview oviously prepare for sharing in western media. 

4. NYT issued an article about problems in UKR army with communication and ineffectity of western aid. 

Next days likely similar articles will be issued in other large media. Politico (many it authors tied with Russia), Bloomberg, Reuters, Bild. All theese articles likely will be rely on more massive missile strikes, which will hit more and more cviliann objects.  

 

We should come back to 21st century political/subversive/information warfare at some point.  You don’t need a 3-letter agency; you need an internet connection and understanding of what a portion of people want hear.

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Есть ли лучший источник для суждения об отношении различных регионов Украины к принадлежности к Украине или России, чем этот?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum#By_region

Pay attention to the date. Since then, several generations of Ukrainians have grown up, while in 1991 the Soviet people voted

[Beleg85]

There are so many goodies in this topic in last 24 hours that it will take several days to think and reflect them.

Just a several quick notes.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

However, do not take this as some sort of hawkish "ra-ra".  Russia cannot fall apart completely for all the reasons in my first post this morning.  We want stability and that will take a tricky balancing act.  Russia needs to hurt badly enough, be contained and compressed but needs to function - that is the middle ground.  It is going to be difficult to find, perhaps impossible...but that is the requirement; it gets much worse if we fail.

True -this goal is very ambitious. As of now, there are no useful short-term levers in Western toolbox to force RU into submission, except directly helping Ukraine of course. All good tools are either mid o long term, and even their effect is uncertain.

It will be trully Herculeian task to keep Western resolve in mid- and long- term. I wonder if current US administration has announced its plan to Western partners in details- or if it has any longer plan at all ( I sincerely hope so).

52 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

There was very little if any concrete consesions given to Turkey from Finland and Sweden. Only vague statements that Turkey can read as it wants for press purposes. Absolutely nothing will change in practice for Sweden and Finland. Almost direct quote from Finland's president by to way.

The details viewed from Turkish side:

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1541853998138986497

Theoretically it is quite a lot, the question is if Erdogan really got something extra under the table and what will be execution of those agreements. I hope Kurds are not sold out again.

 

Edited June 28, 2022 by Beleg85

[cesmonkey]

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Pay attention to the date. Since then, several generations of Ukrainians have grown up, while in 1991 the Soviet people voted

So is there a better, more up-to-date poll somewhere or is this still the best we have?

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Так есть ли где-нибудь лучший, более актуальный опрос или это все еще лучшее, что у нас есть?

We don't, but I personally have. Most of my neighbors are migrants from Donbass. So I have first hand information