How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

 

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Today situation on SE from Lysychansk suddenly got worse. Russians threw in the battle additional forces, concentrated there more artillery and airstrikes and this gave result - they could eithther push off our troops from Toshkivka - Ustynivka line, or even to breakthrough our defense there, due to their further advance. 

If in previous weeks main attacking forces there were mostly represented by 4th LPR motor-rifle brigade, then several days ago  Russians moved here two BTGs of 39th motor-rifle brigade of 68th Army corps (Sakhalin) and units of 24th Spetsnaz brigade (Novosibirsk). Theese forces together with at least two BTGs of 4th LPR brigade after taking Toskivka and Ustynivka today, after short regrouping tried to come with one spurt on southern outskirts of Lysychansk and close the trap behind our troops in Zolote-Hirske area. They partillay had success in this, capturing villages Chykhyrove, Myrna Dolyna and Pidlisne, but were stoppped near Loskutivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka villages. Their advance in direction of Ltsychansk through Bila Hora village also was partially successful, but the village still under our control. 

Russians also are making preparations to river crossing in area Pruvillia - Synetskyi (from Kreminna - Rubizhne area) toward own goup, which advances along Siverskyi Donets river to Lysychansk through Bila Hora from SE. Crossing forces - elements of 55th motor-rifle (mountain) brigade (Tuva republic, 41st CAA) and 40th engineer-sapper regiment (the same 41st CAA).

PS. Information according Konstantyn Mashovets, UKR military analyst

 

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is not good news, but not totally unexpected either.  They have been making steady progress in Toshkivka over the past few days, even claiming complete control (which was not true, obviously).

Even if this breakthrough bogs down quickly, as almost all others have, I don't think Ukraine can retain Zolote-Hirske.  The primary supply artery is now cut and there's a serious risk of being surrounded on all sides.  If Ukraine can't launch a counter offensive and push back the breakthrough forces, withdrawal seems like the only option.

These repeated Russian breakthroughs are pretty indicative of the war in general.  If Russia chooses to invest in a narrow sector of front, it can breach the Ukrainian lines if they are able to sustain a lot of casualties.  But once through Ukraine usually has enough forces to at least stall further Russian advances, yet not enough to compel the Russians to retreat.

Steve

This is, or is at least part of, the push Zelensky said was coming. The men are more important than territory that has been shelled to unrecognizable rubble. It might be time for some judicious repositioning. Thank you for keeping us in the loop.

 

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

 

 

 

This is, or is at least part of, the push Zelensky said was coming. The men are more important than territory that has been shelled to unrecognizable rubble. It might be time for some judicious repositioning. Thank you for keeping us in the loop.

 

How much more spacing is there for Ukraine to shift? My impression is beyond the Donbas urban region, it's much more flat and easier for Russian mechanized units to operate. While yes, Ukrainian forces have held in the other areas, Russia had shifted her units to focus on Donbas. Not sure if trading space for men is viable if Russian units get to move more freely beyond the urban cluster.

Russia still has more airpower, artillery, armor (supposedly?) than Ukraine. While maybe not the speedy fights we expected, Russia if it is willing to do this grinding fight, can outclass Ukraine, especially if Ukraine cannot maintain the attrition rate it needs to drain Russia of these assets.

The west needs to get it's head in the game and give western armor and aircraft (and more anti-air) to Ukraine and churn up more artillery to them. I was happy with those 6 Caesars but Russia clearly has more artillery, and without more verified info on how Ukraine is faring dealing with Russian airpower, artillery, I'm worried.

My thinking was that Ukraine could push on other fronts while Russia focused on Donbas, but it looks like that isn't possible and Ukraine is truly suffering retaining what they have in Donbas. While yes, there are advances in Kherson, I was under the impression Ukraine is able to perform a significant offensive to truly threaten Russia with something that forces them to relocate forces. 

Now maybe Ukraine is still hoarding a reserve, but after that rumor of a Ukrainian mechanized unit getting hammered in Kherson region by Russian air, I'm worried that a far moving offensive isn't possible due to that and only long grinding battles, which Ukraine I'm sure can do, but I dunno if I'm comfortable with Russia pushing to take all of the Donbas in the meanwhile.

But maybe I'm operating on a incorrect premise, how much more defensive terrain does Ukraine have in the Donbas region? What about beyond the urban cluster? Is it defendable?

[Haiduk]

Slovenia sent to Ukraine 35 M80A IFV. This is Yugoslavia-designed IFV, armed with 20 mm canon and  double "Maliutka" (AT-3) ATGM launcher, with remote control from the turret. But latter, I think, useless in this war.

Slovenia had 51 M80 vehciles, which was going to decomission from service

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

Holy crap AT-3. I would be scared to even handle one of those at this point in time.

[mosuri]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Poland is introducing self-propelled, breech loaded, turreted mortars caled Rak (cancer or crayfish) in it's Patria AMV based brigades, 8 per battalion. With modern ammunition advertised range should be around 10km. I wonder how war in Ukraine will verify that idea. On one hand, firing range is rather short - on the other firepower is awesome, and vehicle should be able to scoot from the position in 15 seconds.

Or if you want something really light, CARDOM mortar on HMMWV should have similar firepower.

AMOS has two barrels for twice the fun and similar range to Rak it seems

[Beleg85]

Very panoramic view from Toshkivka, in case anybody would ever like to do a CM scenario out of that engagement.

Channel from Sasha Kots...yes, this one guy who killed his own troops.

Let's hope Ukrainian at Zolotye manage to retreat in time, they only have several kms corridor so Russians will probably try to infiltrate by small groups at night. If they find ones with NVG equipment.

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

The second crash of Su-25 on territory of Russia (this one in Rostov oblast) for last days. This time the pilot lost

According to number RF-90958 it was Su-25SM from 18th assault aviation regiment (Chernigovka airfield, Far East, 11th AF&AD Army)

 

[Calamine Waffles]

38 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Holy crap AT-3. I would be scared to even handle one of those at this point in time.

 

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Slovenia sent to Ukraine 35 M80A IFV. This is Yugoslavia-designed IFV, armed with 20 mm canon and  double "Maliutka" (AT-3) ATGM launcher, with remote control from the turret. But latter, I think, useless in this war.

https://thesovietarmourblog.blogspot.com/2021/07/soviet-atgms.html#malyutka

Malyutka, depending on variant, is probably still perfectly usable against light AFVs and static positions. If you are as skilled as Abu TOW you can probably make even the early MCLOS variants work: https://www.calibreobscura.com/fighting-with-the-atgm-in-the-syrian-conflict-an-interview-with-abu-tow/

Besides, the standard BMP-1 uses Malyutka, so it is hardly an unfamiliar system to the ZSU.
 

Quote

What are the different ATGM you have fired, and how many?

I have hit:

8 Malyutka: 7 successful.

...

I like the most challenging (Malyutka) whose success rate is 35% and the rest [referring to chance of success] is the gunner’s skill.

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Aragorn2002]

So it looks like the Russians are getting their act together.  We can only hope they're paying a heavy price and this is a temporary revival, caused by throwing everything they have left into battle. Not the news we were hoping for, but inevitable. Hopefully it is their Unternehmen Michael.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Besides, the standard BMP-1 uses Malyutka, so it is hardly an unfamiliar system to the ZSU.

We have BPM-1P with Fagot/Konkurs. In 2016 128th brigade used BMP-1 with AT-3, but already year ago launchers were dismounted from vehicles and I never seen them again. Also there wasn't any report or video about their usage.

AT-3 is more hard in guiding, than AT-4/5

Edited June 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vergeltungswaffe]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

...Russians also are making preparations to river crossing in area Pryvillia - Synetskyi (from Kreminna - Rubizhne area) toward own goup, which advances along Siverskyi Donets river to Lysychansk through Bila Hora from SE. Crossing forces - elements of 55th motor-rifle (mountain) brigade (Tuva republic, 41st CAA) and 40th engineer-sapper regiment (the same 41st CAA)...

Let's hope this river crossing turns into a comedy of errors and fails magnificently too.

[Calamine Waffles]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

We have BPM-1P with Fagot/Konkurs. In 2016 128th brigade used BMP-1 with AT-3, but already year ago launchers were dismounted from vehcles and I never seen them again. Also there wasn't any report or video about their usage.

AT-3 is more hard in guiding, than AT-4/5

Well, for the MCLOS variants it depends a lot on operator skill. Also, IIRC, Polish and Czech BWP and BVPs that were sent also use it.

Edited June 21, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Mayor of police (retired) Mikhail Goryaynov. He was a member of some volunteer unit. On 1st of June arrived ti Ukraine. Died in hospital from wounds. 

 

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

Or is their apparent better success because they have the larger numbers of infantry?

No. Their sucess is directly related to Arty. They are shooting UKR out of defensive positions. 

 

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

 Also, the artillery offensive model is deemed to be adapted by the RA because they have a lot of arty and not much infantry.

No. Having more artillery is not enough. They are much less experienced, inflexible and rely on official equipment supply. As result they do not have enough tactical drones and do not experience integrating them with Arty. Well, it was like this in the past and as far as I understood it is unofficially was changing but to what extend I do not know.

 

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

To say the LDNR is above average is questionable. Their units folded pretty quick north of Kharkov.

AFAIK They put there their Mobiks without support of much arty and their infantry specialist. You cannot be strong everywhere. Currently they left Donetsk without arty.

 

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

They also attacked north and south of Donetsk daily for the first 3 months of the war without hardly any results.

We are seeing brutal fight of two evenly matched fighters. But they both have their own gimmicks and issues. In the case of LDNR they have high command issue because their high command is regular RU. And regular RU command is well, suck. But those who did not want to be under RU high command are long dead. Everybody else got the message. 

 

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

 The gains around Lyman and Popasna were orchestrated by RA forces and in particular Wagner, Naval Infantry and VDV remnants.

All successes were orchestrated by combined RU-LDNR arty and other fire support.  All what Wagners, Naval infantry, VDV and other remnants were able to orchestrate is simply push there without running away. LDNR have difficulties with it. Their infantry specialist cannot be everywhere.

 

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

It is possible that there are examples and I would ask them to be shared. Seriously, if I'm looking at this wrong please share and let me modify my perspective.

I attached two maps few days apart. Red circle is where squad of LDNR routed UKR platoon (I translated description few pages back). Except it was not infantry but arty that routed UKR platoon.

Also it would be good to check Mariupol battle, but I do not think there is a single convenient source. The way LDNR fought Mariupol defenders, learned and adapted is very interesting. It was bloody but they learned a lot of what they are applying now again UKR. But again the sources are sparse. 

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So it looks like the Russians are getting their act together.  We can only hope they're paying a heavy price and this is a temporary revival, caused by throwing everything they have left into battle. Not the news we were hoping for, but inevitable. Hopefully it is their Unternehmen Michael.

I said this a little while ago, but I think Darwin's Law of Warfare is finally starting to show some signs of impacting the Russian forces.  The heavy losses probably took out the worst of the Russian personnel already, including officers.  The survivors are likely better off for it.

Steve

[Suleyman]

A positive mindset is key, even if Russia wins in Donbas they're not gonna go much further. They would have to raise a way larger army to do that. Only thing that's sad is that Ukrainian soldiers are dying, and civilians are suffering. 

[Haiduk]

 

[dan/california]

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kyselivka,+Kherson+Oblast,+Ukraine,+75022/@46.7546098,32.2893565,11.14z/data=!4m5!3m4!1s0x40c43cfdef98faf1:0x9874375c591247d1!8m2!3d46.7551837!4d32.4096737

If this true, and the Kyselivka I think he is talking about the Ukrainians really are closing in on Kherson.

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If this true, and the Kyselivka I think he is talking about the Ukrainians really are closing in on Kherson.

Some Ukrainians are saying otherwise, apparently Arestovich again spilled the beans, probably to raise morale after Russians advances near Lysychansk.

To cheer you up:

Edited June 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Some Ukrainians are saying otherwise, apparently Arestovich again spilled the beans, probably to raise morale after Russians advances near Lysychansk.

To cheer you up:

Boy, that wasn't well thought out!  Totally accurate, though.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

The United States is supporting Lithuania's decision.

[Bearstronaut]

So the Estonians are saying there have been incursions into their airspace by Russian helicopters and that Russia is simulating missile attacks on their country. As if the Russians don’t already have enough on their plate.

[Battlefront.com]

Can't remember if this was posted already, so posting again just to be sure.  This gets categorized as "war is weird".

From what I can tell (I've seen only a couple of vague and not well translated accounts) a Ukrainian medic came back to a house where some stuff (uniforms) was being stored and found a bunch of LPR guys there.  He shot one in the leg and the rest surrendered.  Video in linked article:

https://m.censor.net/en/video_news/3348956/man_is_just_in_my_army_boots_fighting_medic_captured_eight_marauding_occupiers_video

Apparently this was 95th Air Assault Brigade operating somewhere in the Luhansk area, probably just south of Lyman.

Steve

[Artkin]

2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Malyutka, depending on variant, is probably still perfectly usable against light AFVs and static positions.

 Sure, but what's the stability of the ordinance like after however many decades in storage.

It's better than nothing I suppose, but wow.

[Calamine Waffles]

The Syrians are definitely still using it right now, so it's probably not *that* dangerous...