Calamine Waffles Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said: I think the S400 system the Slovaks sent with much hoopla in May got destroyed by Kalibrs in its containers at Dnipro Airport (that's from RU sources, but seems credible). If it was credible, they would have published photo evidence of it and the Russian propaganda TV would be crowing about it. And Slovakia sent S-300s. Not S-400s. Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: If it was credible, they would have published photo evidence of it and the Russian propaganda TV would be crowing about it. And Slovakia sent S-300s. Not S-400s. Noted, and ISTR there was video posted of the explosions, though no way of proving that was what they hit. And it would also be easy for the UA to disprove by showing it in action. Which leads me to believe this particular claim is legit. The Kalibrs have gotten some painful shots in; it's not all terror bombing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) Why would they want to show it in action? Why would they want to disclose the area where those things operate? How could you tell it's a different S-300 system from the ones Ukraine already operates? Did the Ukrainians give it a very special paintjob as a thank you to the Slovaks? Edited June 16, 2022 by Calamine Waffles 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 There lots of food for thought in this article:https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/strange-debacle-misadventures-in-assessing-russian-military-power/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Article on Kropyva, the Ukrainian artillery automatic tactical management system (ATMS)https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/kropyva-ukrainian-artillery-application-e5c6161b6c0a 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said: They just shot down an Mi-24 near Kherson: Civil volunteer Yuriy Mysiagin also issed photos of shot down Mi-24/35 in Donetsk oblast, as he claimed, by 231st TD battalion of Dnipropetrovsk oblast with Igla MANPAD. But still unclear is this the same helicopter like on video above and just mistake in location had place, or this is second Hind, downed today. Also I didn't find TD battalion with such number. All TD units digits are 1xx or lower, but not 2xx. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calamine Waffles Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Just now, Haiduk said: Civil volunteer Yuriy Mysiagin also issed photos of shot down Mi-24/35 in Donetsk oblast, as he claimed, by 231st TD battalion of Dnipropetrovsk oblast with Igla MANPAD. But still unclear is this the same helicopter like on video above and just mistake in location had place, or this is second Hind, downed today. Also I didn't find TD battalion with such number. All TD units digits are 1xx or lower, but not 2xx. Yeah, the same Kherson poster later clarified it was a mistake, they are the same helicopter in Donetsk. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: AKD already posted a response that was spot on, but I wanted to reinforce what he said. Russia has been murdering and torturing Ukrainian civilians consistently since 2014. Which is why anybody who knew about this was absolutely not surprised by Bucha, Irpin, and all the other clearly documented atrocities committed by Russian forces. It's just something they do, like breathing and eating. Steve Yes. Russia has been murdering and torturing Ukrainian civilians for more than a century. The Holodomor is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians rather die than surrender. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: Why would they want to show it in action? Why would they want to disclose the area where those things operate? How could you tell it's a different S-300 system from the ones Ukraine already operates? Did the Ukrainians give it a very special paintjob as a thank you to the Slovaks? This. Plus, we know Russia has a very long history of posting strike images that don't correlate with reality, so as a source of information I give those official postings at Junk Bond status. Now, I'm not saying that Russia hasn't managed to strike and kill some of the stuff coming in from the West. No doubt it has. But I am not going to take Russia at its word as to what it got and when. Personally, I don't think their intel is good enough to know what's coming in from the West and when. So even if they show evidence of them actually hitting something brought in from the West, they could be making up a story about what they think they killed. For all we know the container could have been full of toilette paper. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: Why would they want to show it in action? Why would they want to disclose the area where those things operate? How could you tell it's a different S-300 system from the ones Ukraine already operates? Did the Ukrainians give it a very special paintjob as a thank you to the Slovaks? I think this argument's a bit pointless at this point, mate. We'll know the truth when the war is done. Since this seems to be a specialty of yours, do you have any info on where these systems (regardless of origin) are active now? I saw a video which I can't find now of one of the big SAM systems rolling fairly far forward into the Donetsk salient, which surprised me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said: Yes. Russia has been murdering and torturing Ukrainian civilians for more than a century. The Holodomor is one of the reasons why the Ukrainians rather die than surrender. Oh for sure! And murdering and torturing anybody and everybody it holds dominion over, including its own people. Definitely. But specific to current events, 2014 is a more relevant "start date" for the campaign that is going on now. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: How could you tell it's a different S-300 system from the ones Ukraine already operates? Slovakia gave us S-300PMU - more moderm export version of S-300PS, but unlike PS, PMU's launchers move on semi-trailers. Ukraine has S-300PS, S-300PT and S-300V1. Though, "big AD" work is mostly taboo for TV reportages. For three months of war I saw only two videos in twitter and several short TV reportages. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSBoxer Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: If an adversary, state or non-state, foreign or domestic, wants to cause huge damage it can. "He who can destroy a thing, can control a thing." 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artkin Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, sburke said: Kharkiv? WTF is the RU Army thinking? What possible reason makes sense for launching an attack there? Last I saw the North was sparsely defended by the 92nd and 93rd mechanized brigades from NW to N of Kharkiv Edited June 16, 2022 by Artkin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 I know nothing of this source, but if even close to accurate it gives credence to a point I made a few days ago about Putin going to full mobilization. He can't risk alienating those in Moscow or St. Petersburg by pushing them to forced conscription. That's an almost 500-1 discrepancy between Moscow and the Buryat region, insane. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centurian52 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) On 6/13/2022 at 12:18 PM, Aragorn2002 said: I predicted that it would take Russia 2 weeks to Blitzkrieg Ukraine, so I'm not very good at this, but I think there won't be a collapse from either side, just a war of attrition, that will drag on for at least half a year. I think I revised down to 2 weeks at my most pessimistic, but mostly I figured about a month and a half. That's the timeframe I thought it would take them to take eastern Ukraine. I didn't think they would try to take anything west of the Dnieper, or attempt to storm any dense urban areas, since it would be too costly (I did expect heavy Russian casualties). I also didn't expect them to begin their attack at the start of mud season. So clearly I'm not terribly good at making predictions either. I gave the Russians too much credit, the Ukrainians too little credit, and I didn't anticipate the extent of western support. But at least I can claim a certain amount of predictive high ground over the people who expected Ukraine to fold in two or three days. edit: As far as predicting where things go from here, I think I am in the collapse camp, as opposed to the perpetually frozen-front camp. I think the one thing that could have saved the Russian war effort was an early mobilization. And I think it is now too late for Russia to mobilize. It would take months for reinforcements to start showing up, even without considering that the Russians have now gutted their training throughput by committing the third battalions, and I don't think they have that long before their forces collapse. In any case, I can hardly think of anything more likely to kick the pace of western support into high gear than an announcement of Russian mobilization, and the Ukrainians already have a head start on training on western equipment. Edited June 16, 2022 by Centurian52 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) Reportedly UKR missile hit huge ammunition depot in Khrustal'nyi town (old name Krasnyi Luch), Luhansk oblast, under occupation since 2014. Locals wtite there was hit in Krasnyi Luch factory and heavy detonation stressed the town. Due to the range to frontline it could be Tochka-U. Tochka's launches became more rare - either we are already running out of stocks or personnel of 19th missile brigade is mastering HIMARS now Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said: Yeah, the same Kherson poster later clarified it was a mistake, they are the same helicopter in Donetsk. I see these same photo's posted back in this thread on February the 24th ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: Whether this is an example of decaying Russian infrastructure going boom out of neglect (I include Human error) or a deliberate act by someone, we may never know. Regardless, it is a reminder that all industrialized nations have vast amounts of critical infrastructure that can not be defended against attack. If an adversary, state or non-state, foreign or domestic, wants to cause huge damage it can. Steve Hmm.. isn't that how Red Storm Rising started - a fire and destruction at a refinery... 28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: they could be making up a story about what they think they killed. For all we know the container could have been full of toilette paper. Steve No! Not toilet paper! The shortages we experienced during the onset of Covid almost brought down western civilization!! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panzermartin Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Grigb said: Rigth now EU has enough power to deal with RU without US. Poland alone can fight RU to standstill and most likely will defeat them alone. Ukrainians are doing it right now Quote Europe security must firmly be anchored on that guy over the pond. I understand what you are saying about mentality but it is still sounds a bit contradictionary. If Russia is so dumb, worthless , corrupt, incompetent, that cant even contact and accomplish a war against a depleted Ukraine, and can be defeated by Poland, what is the fuss about a grande north atlantic alliance, which was primarly formed to defend against the mighty USSR. What's the point of Europe always needing to have a patron and why Europe can't decide for itself. Quote It is about good guy mentality that led them to the current predicament with supply from Russia Its also economic reasons and a dependence on energy I guess. Germany went to war to secure those before, now they were forced to come closer with Russia. I can't blame them Quote That's why we all love Europe. With all the issues (they are not that big really) I consider it the greatest place to live peacefully Yes despite the flaws, it is a good place to be overall...And I sicerely wish you and Ukraine will get your chance there in the end. Edited June 16, 2022 by panzermartin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aragorn2002 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, panzermartin said: I understand what you are saying about mentality but it is still a bit of contradiction with this: If Russia is so dumb, worthless , corrupt, incompetent, that cant even contact and accomplish a war against a depleted Ukraine, and can be defeated by Poland, what is the fuss about a grande north atlantic alliance, which was primarly formed to defend against the mighty USSR. What's the point of Europe always needing to have a patron and why Europe can't decide for itself. Its also economic reasons and a dependence on energy I guess. Germany went to war to secure those before, now they were forced to come closer with Russia. I can't blame them Yes despite the flaws, it is a good place to be overall...And I sicerely wish you and Ukraine will get your chance there in the end. Russia will learn from all this. And it's still a huge country, with a huge population and with a huge fascination for violence and aggression, so NATO should be prepared. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keas66 Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Just now, Aragorn2002 said: Russia will learn from all this. And it's still a huge country, with a huge population and with a huge fascination for violence and aggression, so NATO should be prepared. I thought Russia had a problem with its Population ? Also as per Billy Ringo's last post above - if I was a member of one the Asiatic client states of the Grand Russian Empire ... I'd be feeling like our particular little population was being unfairly targeted by the Army as on-going cannon fodder for the Adventure in Ukraine . 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) @sburke @Kinophile Mayor Yevgeniy Kushenko, instructor-chief of the staff of training motor-rifle battalion of 467th guard training center, Western military district. Died from wounds in hospital on 11th of June https://vn.ru/news-mayor-instruktor-evgeniy-kushenko-iz-kochenevo-pogib-na-ukraine/ Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 11 hours ago, Machor said: Now, if this latest BBC piece can be verified, that all changes. Again, I do demand verification before going ahead with anything, but if all this is true, NATO has to go in - else, it means we were building our own Potemkin village since the Nuremberg trials: Nope. Ain´t gonna happen. Unless there will be a 2nd Srebreniza and a UN resolution NATO wont get in. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 (edited) The second video of Russian Mi-24/35 downing from Azov SOF. Location - about 1 km north of Rivnopil' village, Donetsk oblast and 9 km SW from Velyka Novosilka - key point of defnse on southern direction Edited June 16, 2022 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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