How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

13 minutes ago, Blazing 88's said:

I may well be wrong, but I think it is this one....??

See tweet link within this post:

 

It is. Thank you!

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Great ( hopefully!) news from EUs centre of gravity: 

 

I don't know the outcome but this has got to be better than no visit.  Hopefully seeing the destruction will help this to sink in and spur more aid.  Putin is a serial mass murderer and is an ongoing threat to all of europe.  Defeating his military in Ukraine is not just the right thing to do for the future of freedom and humanity, it is good for Europe. 

If Putin had won in Ukraine his next stop would've been Georgia, then Baltics, Finland, or maybe even Poland.  He would've used some make-believe border terrritorial dispute to make small military incursion or fake insurrection which would not be enough to start a wider war, like in the Donbas & Crimea.  Then he'd wait for the status quo to stabilize and do it again, over & over and over again.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Great ( hopefully!) news from EUs centre of gravity:

I am not so sure. These are the three foremost dithering Putin whisperers. They could as easily be teaming up to pressure Ukraine into a compromise.

Edited June 11, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am not so sure. These are the three foremost dithering Putin whisperers. They could as easily be teaming up to pressure Ukraine into a compromise.

yeah that is the more likely outcome.  But hey now Zelensky can smack all 3 in the back of the head at once and tell them to get their act together... or better yet, send them to the front.

[Huba]

35 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I am not so sure. These are the three foremost dithering Putin whisperers. They could as easily be teaming up to pressure Ukraine into a compromise.

They don't have anything to offer or withdraw to pressure UA into that - all already pledged to support it in obtaining EU candidacy status. Zelensky would probably made any funny business public and humiliate them thoroughly. 

I'd rather think that they finally understood where the political capital is to be made ( and what coincidentally is a right thing to do, and good for everyone in EU too). It's probably going to be afer FR parliamentary elections, so Macron should have his hands untied finally. I don't expect anything huge, but some robust economic support package and loud declaration of support of UA cause would be great.

And some Eurofighters

Edit: on a more serious note, I really think is that the best way to both increase EU unity and highlight independence from US, is to try to outmatch it in support given to UA. It is a one in a decade chance. I thought EU leaders blew it, but maybe there's still time... 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Huba

[Kinophile]

Its interesting, and certainly has elements to be concerned about (eg Scholz not being very supportive).  They could easily be coming with Putin's latest nonsense.

Hopefully Zelensky wont fumble this like he did with the German Prez. 

But he did give himself a Golden armor right from the outset, when he made it clear any settlement would require a fill referendum. Minsk/Munich is not happening again. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I've just passed to this page and read THIS. Guys, I though this was just a joke, but now my heart is melted down and I can't reject this gift. Though, I feel myself awkward... and also huge gratitude to all of you and Kinophile personally for idea     

You have helped this community long before this war and you kept it up even when the shells were falling around your neighborhood.  This is a well deserved THANK YOU from all of us here.  Plus, sometime in the future we'll need your help to make a Black Sea 2, so it is also a bribe as well as a thank you

Steve

[sross112]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

Bad Voice Acting skill? Starting from the very first words (confirmation of report about UKR patrol). They are so unnatural that the first time I saw the video I closed it immediately.

Single swearing? They do not swear but when they run to wounded Ukrainian a hot headed one said single swear word means killing him. That is the most dramatic moment with the most dramatic effect from swearing. This is where you put swearing if you are script writer of cheap military TV show with limited amount F-bombs per minute of show.

I don't speak or understand Russian so I have no take on the verbal part. I reviewed it several times and my conclusion is that it is either a training video or a video of a training area. If you look at the ground it is fairly dry and not a single bullet strike is seen. The grass is crushed down along the trails that each individual travels, biggest clue is the trail where the soldier rolls during the ambush. The other thinner trails could be dismissed as game trails, regular patrol routes, etc but the rolling trail clearly shows that the same movement has been done over that ground multiple times. 

One part that confused me about being a training film or filmed training was the blast from the barrels of the shooting weapons. In the US we had to attach a BFA (blank firing adapter) to the muzzle in order for the M16 to cycle and I didn't see those. Further research shows that apparently the AK blanks will cycle without a BFA or a smaller one that lets most of the gas out where the one we used was basically a plug. So that explains seeing the blast from the firing weapons and no bullet strikes anywhere.

[c3k]

25 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I don't speak or understand Russian so I have no take on the verbal part. I reviewed it several times and my conclusion is that it is either a training video or a video of a training area. If you look at the ground it is fairly dry and not a single bullet strike is seen. The grass is crushed down along the trails that each individual travels, biggest clue is the trail where the soldier rolls during the ambush. The other thinner trails could be dismissed as game trails, regular patrol routes, etc but the rolling trail clearly shows that the same movement has been done over that ground multiple times. 

One part that confused me about being a training film or filmed training was the blast from the barrels of the shooting weapons. In the US we had to attach a BFA (blank firing adapter) to the muzzle in order for the M16 to cycle and I didn't see those. Further research shows that apparently the AK blanks will cycle without a BFA or a smaller one that lets most of the gas out where the one we used was basically a plug. So that explains seeing the blast from the firing weapons and no bullet strikes anywhere.

Bolded: the other benefit of the clamped BFA was the assurance that no round could exit a firearm equipped with one. So, an errant "live" round in a pile of blanks would not cause a casualty.

 

[dan/california]

You can see the exact moment they saw/heard the drone.

Edited June 11, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Hister said:

Steve, do you still think Russian army will collapse this month? In late May or sometime around then you wrote for the recorod that it will. Still hold this belief? 

What do others think, collapse in June or when?

When it is reasonable to expect Ukrainians will be able to push Russians out of the newly occupied parts? Until the end of summer as was many times suggested or is that too optimistic?

I will say that Russia is surprising me to some degree.  As Grigb said, any normal nation would have long since taken a major change of approach to the war, but Russia continues on without much change other than scaling down the scope of offensive activities.  Russia has also continued to come up with new and even more creative ways to get replacement manpower (ISW June 10th report outlined a scheme that tricked yet other bunch of Russians).  Yet it is pretty clear that each passing day means Russia's capacity to fight in Ukraine is worsening.  Even "victories" in the Donbas won't change that dynamic.

And this gets us into the tricky bit about predicting the WHEN.  The elements necessary for a Russian military collapse have been in place for quite a while.  The fundamentals have not changed for the better from Russia's perspective, but in fact have gotten decidedly worse.  Determining the exact point at which "this much is too much" for the forces at the front is impossible until after it happens.  In other words, we do not have an accurate count of how many pieces of straw it takes to break this particular camel's back, therefore we can count all the pieces falling on its back and still not know when its back will break.

So, to some extent I am not as confident of Russian collapse by the end of June as I was last month.  Russia has managed to bring more forces into the fight (one-time tricks) and Ukraine has held back on its reserves more than I expected.  As I stated above, this doesn't change where this is all headed, it only changes the timeline.

This is why people don't like to make predictions about WHEN something might happen.  For the most part I've been avoiding doing it as well.  The "by the end of June" (or however I phrased it) was perhaps a little optimistic.  I'll revise that and say "the soonest it is likely to happen is the end of June".

I don't know that this war can continue into the Fall or Winter.  Both sides are exhausted, but Russia is worse off than Ukraine from what I can see.  Now and into the near future.  Morale is one of the key factors in this war and Ukraine still has plenty of it and Russia does not.

Steve

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I will say that Russia is surprising me to some degree.  As Grigb said, any normal nation would have long since taken a major change of approach to the war, but Russia continues on without much change other than scaling down the scope of offensive activities.  Russia has also continued to come up with new and even more creative ways to get replacement manpower (ISW June 10th report outlined a scheme that tricked yet other bunch of Russians).  Yet it is pretty clear that each passing day means Russia's capacity to fight in Ukraine is worsening.  Even "victories" in the Donbas won't change that dynamic.

And this gets us into the tricky bit about predicting the WHEN.  The elements necessary for a Russian military collapse have been in place for quite a while.  The fundamentals have not changed for the better from Russia's perspective, but in fact have gotten decidedly worse.  Determining the exact point at which "this much is too much" for the forces at the front is impossible until after it happens.  In other words, we do not have an accurate count of how many pieces of straw it takes to break this particular camel's back, therefore we can count all the pieces falling on its back and still not know when its back will break.

So, to some extent I am not as confident of Russian collapse by the end of June as I was last month.  Russia has managed to bring more forces into the fight (one-time tricks) and Ukraine has held back on its reserves more than I expected.  As I stated above, this doesn't change where this is all headed, it only changes the timeline.

This is why people don't like to make predictions about WHEN something might happen.  For the most part I've been avoiding doing it as well.  The "by the end of June" (or however I phrased it) was perhaps a little optimistic.  I'll revise that and say "the soonest it is likely to happen is the end of June".

I don't know that this war can continue into the Fall or Winter.  Both sides are exhausted, but Russia is worse off than Ukraine from what I can see.  Now and into the near future.  Morale is one of the key factors in this war and Ukraine still has plenty of it and Russia does not.

Steve

I also think that Putin's insistence on scraping out the bottom of the barrel with a chisel. and then throwing the cut up pieces of the barrel into the fight after the scrapings will make the collapse worse when it comes. Third and fourth tier conscripts with two weeks training and 70+ years old gear are not even going to try to hold the line when when the units beside them and/or the supply lines behind them collapse. 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I will say that Russia is surprising me to some degree.  As Grigb said, any normal nation would have long since taken a major change of approach to the war, but Russia continues on without much change other than scaling down the scope of offensive activities.  Russia has also continued to come up with new and even more creative ways to get replacement manpower (ISW June 10th report outlined a scheme that tricked yet other bunch of Russians).  Yet it is pretty clear that each passing day means Russia's capacity to fight in Ukraine is worsening.  Even "victories" in the Donbas won't change that dynamic.

And this gets us into the tricky bit about predicting the WHEN.  The elements necessary for a Russian military collapse have been in place for quite a while.  The fundamentals have not changed for the better from Russia's perspective, but in fact have gotten decidedly worse.  Determining the exact point at which "this much is too much" for the forces at the front is impossible until after it happens.  In other words, we do not have an accurate count of how many pieces of straw it takes to break this particular camel's back, therefore we can count all the pieces falling on its back and still not know when its back will break.

So, to some extent I am not as confident of Russian collapse by the end of June as I was last month.  Russia has managed to bring more forces into the fight (one-time tricks) and Ukraine has held back on its reserves more than I expected.  As I stated above, this doesn't change where this is all headed, it only changes the timeline.

This is why people don't like to make predictions about WHEN something might happen.  For the most part I've been avoiding doing it as well.  The "by the end of June" (or however I phrased it) was perhaps a little optimistic.  I'll revise that and say "the soonest it is likely to happen is the end of June".

I don't know that this war can continue into the Fall or Winter.  Both sides are exhausted, but Russia is worse off than Ukraine from what I can see.  Now and into the near future.  Morale is one of the key factors in this war and Ukraine still has plenty of it and Russia does not.

Steve

So it seems Putin's plan is to get the little bit of Donbas that hasn't been taken so he can declare victory, then attempt to freeze the status quo.  He'll talk about wanting cease fire, peace, etc, and will hope that bribing enough politicians and influencers in the west will sway public opinion to a negotiated settlement w RU keeping all their stolen land. 

Then he'll go return to his ongoing efforts to subvert democracy in the west (via social media and bribery) as he's done for a long time now, which is certainly cheaper than war and has nearly zero risk. 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Ukraine showing it's appreciation for the support it is getting from Great Britain. 

Queen Elizabeth II bringing down the (n)law. 

[Beleg85]

48 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Ukraine showing it's appreciation for the support it is getting from Great Britain. 

Queen Elizabeth II bringing down the (n)law. 

I sincerely wish her to outlive Putin as head of the state.

 

57 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So it seems Putin's plan is to get the little bit of Donbas that hasn't been taken so he can declare victory, then attempt to freeze the status quo.  He'll talk about wanting cease fire, peace, etc, and will hope that bribing enough politicians and influencers in the west will sway public opinion to a negotiated settlement w RU keeping all their stolen land. 

Then he'll go return to his ongoing efforts to subvert democracy in the west (via social media and bribery) as he's done for a long time now, which is certainly cheaper than war and has nearly zero risk. 

That seems to be the plan. Plus giant blackmail with world food prices.

I just hope Three Amigos going to Kyiv soon will not try to force Zhelensky into some settlement. Right now Western will to supply Ukraine seems to be the weakest link in entire chain that could somehow positively finish the conflict. And Putin was pretty good so far at instinctivly sensing their doubts.

Edited June 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[Machor]

@panzermartin

Thank you for the kind wishes. I'm following the developments in the Aegean, and so far it looks like hot air intended for domestic consumption just like last year. I'll start a thread in General Discussion if - God forbid - things get serious.

11 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Regardless of the islamist delirium, do you think Turkey is destined to expand westwards as it always pursued.

Assuming I understood the question correctly, I'll try to answer very briefly to avoid derailing the thread: Even though we're celebrating Erdoğan polling lower than 30% nationally for the first time, it is in fact appalling that 29% are still supporting him, even when they have to stand in line for hours to buy discounted bread; for many of these people, Erdoğan is nothing short of a caliph. There are also some 5+ million Syrians and 2+ million Afghans and Pakistanis in the country, who are all loyal to Erdoğan as well. And Erdoğan with his cronies knows that they'll be headed straight for jail after all they've done, as soon as they lose power. Therefore, I still fearfully anticipate - as I've done since 2013 - a civil war that will leave Syria looking like Disneyland. If you think I'm going above my paygrade, Burak Kadercan has also repeatedly stated that civil war is a very likely scenario.

 

[Machor]

@Grigb

Thank you for the detailed reply - I'm sold. 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Currently there is an internal but informal scandal in RU army (akin to big Torpedo Scandal) that they lack drones and bad at integrating them compared to UKR army. The first purpose is to counter that narrative - it implies they have enough drones to use them at the squad level and drones are successfully integrated.

 

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

After AzovStal surrender RU nationalists feel betrayed. They expected brutal executions. Instead, they got reports that at least some Evil Nazis were put to hospitals (at least initially indeed they were). RU nationalists blame traitorous pussy Army for the lack of brutal resolve. 

So, the second purpose is to show that RU solders feel the need to brutally kill Evil Nazis, but they are commanded by cool headed commanders who make sure Russian hands stay clean. Not a bad propaganda trick, Ivan, I will give you that!

It is frankly amazing how targeted the propaganda is.

[danfrodo]

Machor, I think it's been the full 40 years since I watched Conan.  I guess I gotta get back on that horse, thanks!  I read most of the Ron E Howard Conan books ~10 years ago.  Actually really really good stuff, Howard was truly gifted.

So Turkey civil war?  What will that game be called?  CM... CM... CMErdogan?  CMOttoman? 

[Kinophile]

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/ukrainian-navy-ship-in-dramatic-escape-survives-russian-artillery-attack/

Land based artillery vs. warship.

Like WW2 urban bombers trying to hit fast corvettes....

[LongLeftFlank]

Russian side sources speculate that this is a chemical works.

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[danfrodo]

24 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Russian side sources speculate that this is a chemical works.

 

Who's chemical works??

[LongLeftFlank]

11 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Also in the artillery department, when the Russians are also having to conceal their supply dumps in civilian facilities (and they've finally figured out that they ought to), you know the UA is doing its work....

Quite an intense bombardment too, correcting fire. 

So for a force that is outnumbered 7:1 in tubes and running dry on Bloc 152mm, the Ukes are putting quite a hurt on the Russian LOCs around Izyum.  And Rubizhne.  Keep an eye out for a matching map showing the key road and rail routes.

Either that or their Anarcho-Syndicalist Platoons are wreaking havoc with matches behind enemy lines.... 

Edited June 12, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

More CAESAR porn   This one has a nice look at some of the advantages of the targeting system...

 

[Battlefront.com]

I think there should be a new saying... "it's not how much artillery you have, it's what you do with it that counts!".  Looks like a Russian supply convoy, perhaps with a mix of fuel and rocket artillery ammo, conveniently parked all in one spot and the drivers didn't put in the effort to move their vehicles once the shelling started.  This was uploaded yesterday and I didn't see any reference to where it might be:

 

[Offshoot]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Now finally Sumlenny posted something fresh and worth of reading.

Best is Russian Specnaz boarding HMS Victory. Or this one:  "Novorossiya pilot" awakes in a body of Josef Stalin's son Vassily, a war pilot, and wins the war, revealing a Western agent Khrushchov, saving Stalinism".

It's funny, but if you analyze society through its popculture it is really scarry what it can do to collective mentality. Movies like "Stalingrad", "Orda", "1612" were all so bloody, dumb, naive and sadistic that to Western viewers looked like American Pulp Fiction genre. But in retrospect, they were mainstream that builded this damn mythos.

Not to do offtopic- it illustrates that state of collective Russian psyche is one of the reasons why this war may be longer and bloodier than some people in the West suggest, drawing on military situation alone.

Crazy stuff but not such a surprise after reading about Fomenko's New Chronology and its connection to imperialism (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_chronology_(Fomenko))

I wonder now if that fire at the state publishing company a couple of months ago was just an accident. Given Sumlenny shows there was a campaign to try to stop these publications, some people in Russia were clearly aware of it.