How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

4 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

HHmmmmm....Interesting idea. The amount asking to be raised may be more than is needed and that may prevent the number from being hit. If I understand GoFundMe correctly, if the goal isn't hit then nothing is sent. You can get a really good laptop for half of that....or a third.

Yeah, if the goal is just to post on the internet you can get a netbook for less than $200 USD.

[Huba]

UA grain exports have already reached around 1/3 of the pre-war level. Still not enough, but progress is immense.

 

[panzermartin]

14 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Yeah, if the goal is just to post on the internet you can get a netbook for less than $200 USD.

Yes, but how about a laptop that he can play newest CM titles on, or a demanding FPS  

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Mind you Erdogan is facing a election and he's completely ****ed the economy, this is probably a nationalistic ploy to win votes. While he's veered towards authoritarianism, turkey is still a democracy and he is on the chopping block.

Yep. Erdogan is in real trouble:  https://www.gmfus.org/news/upcoming-elections-turkey-unfair-real-and-competitive

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Well times have changed since Macron brought that up, and this conflict created some very loud developments, like the massive rearming of the Bundeswehr. 

We don't have a EU army yet but for a start Greece has already signed a mutual defense pact with France :

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/greece-france-defence-pact-protects-against-third-party-aggression-greek-pm-2021-10-07/

 

That massive rearming of the Bundeswehr is going to be a powerful reason for many EU countries why that "patron across the Atlantic" cannot ever go away. 

[BFCElvis]

28 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Yeah, if the goal is just to post on the internet you can get a netbook for less than $200 USD.

Being able to run Black Sea would be nice too. For that it should have a dedicated video card. Not just an Intel integrated card.

[Harmon Rabb]

17 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Yes, but how about a laptop that he can play newest CM titles on, or a demanding FPS  

 

2 minutes ago, BFCElvis said:

Being able to run Black Sea would be nice too. For that it should have a dedicated video card. Not just an Intel integrated card.

Can't argue there! Our friend deserves a nice new laptop.

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That massive rearming of the Bundeswehr is going to be a powerful reason for many EU countries why that "patron across the Atlantic" cannot ever go away. 

I *sincerely* hope Germany has closed its circle as a military bully. Unfortunately to quote Heraclitus, "everything flows" so we cant predict the future and the conditions. But I would fear more if there is no Russia anymore to counter them on June 2041  

[CAZmaj]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

... spetsnaz incursion into the Alaska North Slope in Feb 1981 to test whether Reagan's tough guy rhetoric was in earnest (the team was detected by Innuit hunters and Alaska Air Guard napalmed them: message received / message sent!)...  More info please?

[LongLeftFlank]

51 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok you got to back that one up...please.  I mean that is one helluva story but it sounds like myth. 

Edit - and I want it to be true.

My source for that item is passed away, sorry (yeah, how convenient. Comes of being an inquisitive lad drinking in seedy bars with old guys. Now, I am that old guy).

...I gather it was not unknown though for SOFs on both teams to send recon units onto the tundra in the 1950s-60s, but the practice had waned by the detente era. This raid was a throwback, but then so was Reagan.

Those little games definitely included Canada -- the DEW line and all that stuff -- so you may have better sources than I at this point.

....'Sibelius' may be verifiable separately, via Norwegians (or Finns). He was the spetsnaz 'ski troops' guru for years and years; it was his trademark.

I also dimly recall, separately, mention of a GRU 'Mozart', but I think the source is Suvorov/Razun, so.... extra salt with that one.

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I *sincerely* hope Germany has closed its circle as a military bully. Unfortunately to quote Heraclitus, "everything flows" so we cant predict the future and the conditions. But I would fear more if there is no Russia anymore to counter them on June 2041  

Given the fact that Germany is by far the most democratic European country, I think we can safely rule another war from their side out. 

[c3k]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok you got to back that one up...please.  I mean that is one helluva story but it sounds like myth. 

Edit - and I want it to be true.

I literally stopped what I was doing when I read that, copied/pasted/searched, and was about to post a "WTF?" comment.

Thank you for doing so...politely.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, c3k said:

I literally stopped what I was doing when I read that, copied/pasted/searched, and was about to post a "WTF?" comment.

Thank you for doing so...politely.

I thought you guys might miss Kettler (I hope he gets let back out of the doghouse eventually).

No, I wouldn't have posted it if I hadn't heard it from a guy who was otherwise credible, but, I wasn't there. So as I say, FWIW.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, c3k said:

I literally stopped what I was doing when I read that, copied/pasted/searched, and was about to post a "WTF?" comment.

Thank you for doing so...politely.

Now it was a story line in a really crappy 80s mini-series (I actually remember watching this as a kid)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(miniseries)

"Out of the plane, the Soviets launch a secret incursion into Alaska. The Soviets have inserted a cold weather Spetsnaz assault force of approximately 35-40 KGB desant ski troops led by Soviet Colonel Alexander Vorashin (Jeroen Krabbé) into northern Alaska with a track-driven armored vehicle. Vorashin's orders are to seize control of a strategically-located pumping station along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline to threaten the placement of floating explosive devices in the stream of oil and to destroy substantial portions of the pipeline. The operation is being conducted in response to the US grain embargo of the Soviet Union, just as the 1980 grain embargo was in response to the 1979 Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan."

Now was this fiction being remembered as truth, or truth that wound up in fiction?

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now it was a story line in a really crappy 80s mini-series (I actually remember watching this as a kid)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(miniseries)

"Out of the plane, the Soviets launch a secret incursion into Alaska. The Soviets have inserted a cold weather Spetsnaz assault force of approximately 35-40 KGB desant ski troops led by Soviet Colonel Alexander Vorashin (Jeroen Krabbé) into northern Alaska with a track-driven armored vehicle. Vorashin's orders are to seize control of a strategically-located pumping station along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline to threaten the placement of floating explosive devices in the stream of oil and to destroy substantial portions of the pipeline. The operation is being conducted in response to the US grain embargo of the Soviet Union, just as the 1980 grain embargo was in response to the 1979 Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan."

Now was this fiction being remembered as truth, or truth that wound up in fiction?

wow, you're good! I heard the story in the late 80s, so it fits that timeline, but the old guy didn't seem like the type who would Kaiser Soce stuff off network TV. He had absolutely lived the reality (VN and Laos), that I do know.

Anyway, sorry about the sidebar.

[Grigb]

22 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I *sincerely* hope Germany has closed its circle as a military bully. Unfortunately to quote Heraclitus, "everything flows" so we cant predict the future and the conditions. But I would fear more if there is no Russia anymore to counter them on June 2041  

Russians helped Germans to start whole things. Then almost lost to them and survived due to the help from countries across channel/pond only to grab significant portion of Europe to murder, enslave and steal. 

Can we deal with Germans next time without Ivan? They are kind of buzzkillers. Sometimes literally. 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, BFCElvis said:

HHmmmmm....Interesting idea. The amount asking to be raised may be more than is needed and that may prevent the number from being hit. If I understand GoFundMe correctly, if the goal isn't hit then nothing is sent. You can get a really good laptop for half of that....or a third.

Yah I see it now, I'd adjusted it late last night but didnt save obviously. I'll clarify it here (and now fixed on the page) - target is $1200, which is really a c. CAD$1000 laptop with a buffer for shipping, taxes etc.

BTW, we're already Halfway at $600...

Edited June 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

wow, you're good! I heard the story in the late 80s, so it fits that timeline, but the old guy didn't seem like the type who would Kaiser Soce stuff off network TV. He had absolutely lived the reality (VN and Laos), that I do know.

Anyway, sorry about the sidebar.

I've always been pretty skeptical of the stories about spetnaz infiltrations given the Open Skies treaty and the ease with which a Russian trawler could drop a couple of 'hunters' on the endless Alaska coast to do their recon. 

[LongLeftFlank]

Speaking of 'is it disinformation or not?', there are still reports of the Russians crossing the Seviersky Donets between Lyman and Svyathohirsk.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Pete Wenman]

A further insight into the UKA artillery app

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/kropyva-ukrainian-artillery-application-e5c6161b6c0a

P

 

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I've always been pretty skeptical of the stories about spetnaz infiltrations given the Open Skies treaty and the ease with which a Russian trawler could drop a couple of 'hunters' on the endless Alaska coast to do their recon. 

Also, by now pretty much all the "fun" stuff from the Cold War that managed to stay secret has come to light and been passed around enough that at least the scent of the trail would exist.  More than likely it would be on Wikipedia even if vague and/or fanciful.

Steve

[billbindc]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Also, by now pretty much all the "fun" stuff from the Cold War that managed to stay secret has come to light and been passed around enough that at least the scent of the trail would exist.  More than likely it would be on Wikipedia even if vague and/or fanciful.

Steve

And of course, we must not forget the 80's Cold War movie standard (i.e. if they made an 80's movie about it, it never happened).

[LongLeftFlank]

On 6/9/2022 at 10:14 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Bonus question: gee whiz PopMech journalism aside, is anyone using infantry grenade launchers to knock down the smaller hover drones? I know there have been 40mm airburst rounds since the 1970s (don't know about Bloc 30mm).

...And I mean, ordinary GLs, from thump guns and M203s to AGLs, not some fiddly hi-tech toy that could cost as much as a MANPADS.

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/grenade-launchers-might-be-the-ultimate-weapon-they-can-fire-drones/

Curious what people may know about this....

I'd actually rather all the ace BS detectors on here opined on this query from yesterday, which is somewhat more important than barroom tales from 35 years ago.

...Why aren't UA (or Russian) squads killing more drones, at least the little quads as opposed to the big higher flying UAVs? Or maybe they are? Or maybe there's fewer of them than it looks like? TBH, I know little to nothing about the drone war but it seems like getting these things out of the skies should be pretty high on the list for both sides.

Like why the Sam Hill would this kind of thing ever happen? You're on patrol and hear something buzzing above you, you kill it (shotgun? or what?), or else assume the enemy knows exactly where you are....

 

 

Anyone?

Edited June 10, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Mind you Erdogan is facing a election and he's completely ****ed the economy, this is probably a nationalistic ploy to win votes. While he's veered towards authoritarianism, turkey is still a democracy and he is on the chopping block.

 

Just send more Caesars. All the Caesars.  Seems to be the ideal system for this current war.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I'd actually rather all the ace BS detectors on here opined on this query from yesterday, which is somewhat more important than barroom tales from 35 years ago.

...Why aren't UA (or Russian) squads killing more drones, at least the little quads as opposed to the big higher flying UAVs? Or maybe they are? Or maybe there's fewer of them than it looks like? TBH, I know little to nothing about the drone war but it seems like getting these things out of the skies should be pretty high on the list for both sides.

Anyone?

Surely it must be a question of time before specialized 'drone killing' drones will be standard in every battlegroup. I often wonder, looking at all that drone footage, why nothing is done about their presence.