How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

Indeed...it is hardly a new issue. New technology just adds a new variation on an age-old theme.

This wonderful young soldier isn't noticeably different from a kid. God keep him well!

"There are only two of us here, on the front line." OP.

****

UA commanders frankly endorse the view of their troops: being shelled for days wrecks forces, even where it does not kill then.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Butschi]

19 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

So were children riding their bicycles close to German units during WW2. It is as old as warfare. 

To be fair, all sorts of things happening during wars, many of which are called war crimes nowadays, are as old as warfare. But, yes, I was just reminded of the movie "A Bridge too far" where early on that Dutch boy "rides his bicycle" (to his girlfriend because it's his birthday and she has a cake for him) and discovers Walter Model is there.

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Hey Grigb, THANKS for your thoughts.  I am really grateful for having an actual RU army veteran's opinions.  And I sincerely hope they don't try to conscript you!

Sorry to disappoint but I am not Russian veteran. I was planning to become one and participated in two year study program of one of top Russian military college (Actually It was and still is top Russian military technical university) but instead of "graduation" (you would have to study technical disciplines few more years) I decided to quit because of my observation of how the system really works and what it can do.

If you study real Russian military history Bucha massacre will not come as surprise. Actually, it was not even the main event. Concentration camps with torture and execution conveyer would come later. 

10 hours ago, danfrodo said:

And I sincerely hope they don't try to conscript you!

After quitting I made sure that my medical records were corrected, and my mobilization level was severely restricted. Russian corruption is a feature, not a bug. Then after a couple of years I decided to leave completely. Obviously I have connections inside Russia and keeping an eye on what's going on there.

[chuckdyke]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

"A Bridge too far

Exactly, a little stereo typing in the movie but civilians are a valuable resource if they are on your side. What else did they do? the railways were on strike and the local Telcom offered their services. The latter could have solved the allied command and control problems. But it was against their protocol. Because of the railway strike the western part of the country had to deal with starvation during the winter. 

[G.I. Joe]

11 minutes ago, Butschi said:

To be fair, all sorts of things happening during wars, many of which are called war crimes nowadays, are as old as warfare. But, yes, I was just reminded of the movie "A Bridge too far" where early on that Dutch boy "rides his bicycle" (to his girlfriend because it's his birthday and she has a cake for him) and discovers Walter Model is there.

Indeed. I generally consider it a safe bet that anyone commonly remembered as "The Great" would probably be considered an A-list war criminal by post-World War II standards...

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Wagner PMC spetsnaz-for-hire also operating up here.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1534771959220797441

 

Interestingly, all through human history, mercenaries tend *not* to be usable in high intensity / high casualty infantry combat situations like MOUT or forest combat, for the very reason that you can't spend your money if you're dead.

Wagnerites and other PMCs used by Ry MOD are not truly mercenaries. They are contract soldiers whose losses Russian MOD does not need to report. 

During Chechen Wars Russians realized that even their elite infantry can suffer heavy losses hurting Russian military reputation (see Battle for Height 776 where Russian artillery destroyed vdv company). Instead of improving themselves they decided to create grey unit outside of the MOD, so the MOD can plausibly claim that the Russian military suffers no losses.   

[LongLeftFlank]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Wagnerites and other PMCs used by Ry MOD are not truly mercenaries. They are contract soldiers whose losses Russian MOD does not need to report. 

During Chechen Wars Russians realized that even their elite infantry can suffer heavy losses hurting Russian military reputation (see Battle for Height 776 where Russian artillery destroyed vdv company). Instead of improving themselves they decided to create grey unit outside of the MOD, so the MOD can plausibly claim that the Russian military suffers no losses.   

Wow, very interesting thanks for clarifying!

Aside from the 'deniability' aspect, duplication of functions with parallel chains of command is a hallmark of authoritarian systems. A source of checks and balances in case of attempted coup, or simply an artifact of bureaucratic turf wars. Not just authoritarian states either, for example the location and manning of US defence and security establishments around Washington DC is quite interesting (we got a brief glimpse of that structure after 6 Jan 2021)

****

Also, re the ongoing European 'Axis of Weasels', this from Arestovych, via Dmitri:

https://wartranslated.com/day-105-june-8-summary-of-arestovych-and-feygin-daily-broadcast/

European Commission stands with , , Baltics, , , supports in defeating , removing its ability to threaten neighbours. Old Europe is split into Euro-Atlantists, for unity of all countries surrounding Atlantic Ocean. Continentalists want to balance and anglo-saxon influence. They have fallen for Putin’s fake reality, as it matches their political tasks and goals. Saying that Putin has made a mistake (rather than admitting a crime). army will not allow to play games with .

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Bulletpoint]

I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine's allies actually want Ukraine to win the war. Maybe they just don't want Ukraine to lose? Now that Russians are no longer at the gates of Kyiv, the war probably seems less important to the EU/US.

A stalemate situation in the east would be like returning to the situation that's been going on since 2014: Low-scale, containable warfare. Maybe they plan to allow Ukraine to regain the south, Kherson and and Mariupol, but stop short of any decisive final outcome that could drive big political changes in Russia that could upset the global status quo.

Meanwhile, they want to use sanctions to slowly squeeze the life out of Russia. The continual Russian occupation of Ukraine's east and Crimea would be the justification. If Ukraine won the war outright, it would be more difficult to maintain the sanctions, especially after the media focus shifted to the hardships of Russian citizens.

[Ultradave]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers.  20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  I will not press you for details, but if you feel to tell us a bit more about your personal experiences you definitely have an audience here interested in learning more.

Yes, please do if you feel comfortable doing so. I think many would be interested in your thoughts on what you describe as the "whole system" There have been a lot of discussions or comments about the lack of effectiveness of Russian NCOs and junior officers, but little from real first hand knowledge. And welcome!!

Dave

 

[Butschi]

33 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm starting to wonder if Ukraine's allies actually want Ukraine to win the war. Maybe they just don't want Ukraine to lose? Now that Russians are no longer at the gates of Kyiv, the war probably seems less important to the EU/US.

A stalemate situation in the east would be like returning to the situation that's been going on since 2014: Low-scale, containable warfare. Maybe they plan to allow Ukraine to regain the south, Kherson and and Mariupol, but stop short of any decisive final outcome that could drive big political changes in Russia that could upset the global status quo.

Meanwhile, they want to use sanctions to slowly squeeze the life out of Russia. The continual Russian occupation of Ukraine's east and Crimea would be the justification. If Ukraine won the war outright, it would be more difficult to maintain the sanctions, especially after the media focus shifted to the hardships of Russian citizens.

I doubt The West (tm) is that directly cynical but maybe you are not too far off the mark. I often hear things like "Russia must not be allowed to win the war!" but rarely "Ukraine has to win the war". So my take on this would be:

• What most western politicians have to fear right now is the record braking inflation. Exploding prices for bare necessities like food and electricity and heating are threatening to become too much for low-income households to handle and there is only so much the state can do to mitigate that. At the very least this has the potential to drive people into the arms of populists (who incidentally are more often then not funded by the Kremlin).
  • From this point of view the goal of many/most politicians has to be to end the war as soon as possible because then goods can flow more freely between Ukraine and the rest of the world which would improve the food situation and also help economically, e.g. for the automotive industry. At the same time, at least a partial lifting of the sanctions could possible reduce costs for fuel and electricity.
  • Lifting of sanctions, however, is only politically feasible if there is at least a permanent ceasefire at max. minor violations occuring. Even with media attention shifting elsewhere it is hard to imagine lifting sanctions is on the table while there is still a war ongoing (but maybe I'm too optimistic here).
  • A ceasefire will only happen if neither side thinks it can win easily. And so the logical course would be to supply Ukraine with enough weapons to not lose and possible even win back the territory lost after 2/24. But not more.
• There is also the threat of nuclear escalation. Yes, many here have said that it doesn't make sense for Russia to escalate but then it didn't make sense for Russia to start this war in the first place. A terminally ill Putin or a Putin who thinks he will not survive an all out military defeat may not act that rationally and then it boils down to how loyal the military around him is.
  • I think some western politicians are genuinely afraid of causing a nuclear war. We often here that Putin should be given a way to get out of this without entirely losing face. Disgusting or not, if your intention is to avoid nuclear war then this is probably what a politician would try to do.

Just my thoughts but I'm also just trying to get into the heads of the decision makers of this world...

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

• From this point of view the goal of many/most politicians has to be to end the war as soon as possible because then goods can flow more freely between Ukraine and the rest of the world which would improve the food situation and also help economically, e.g. for the automotive industry. At the same time, at least a partial lifting of the sanctions could possible reduce costs for fuel and electricity.
• Lifting of sanctions, however, is only politically feasible if there is at least a permanent ceasefire at max. minor violations occuring. Even with media attention shifting elsewhere it is hard to imagine lifting sanctions is on the table while there is still a war ongoing (but maybe I'm too optimistic here).
• A ceasefire will only happen if neither side thinks it can win easily. And so the logical course would be to supply Ukraine with enough weapons to not lose and possible even win back the territory lost after 2/24. But not more.

OTOH there were multiple statements by EU politicians, including Scholz, that lifting the sanctions is up to Ukraine to decide. As I understand, removing sanctions on Russia should also be done unanimously by the whole EU - Poland and Balts won't allow it until Ukraine is fully satisfied with the situation. Orban was stubborn regarding introducin new sanctions, imagine what LIithuania, whom legal recognition as a country is now being openly questioned by Russians, will have to say about lifting the sanctions. If UE wants the sanction removed at some point, we better supply Ukraine with everything it needs to trash Russia ASAP.

Edited June 9, 2022 by Huba

[chuckdyke]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

we better supply Ukraine with everything it needs to trash Russia ASAP.

It is a comparable situation to the Boer War. The Boer Republics depended on the supply of German Mausers and artillery. The British fought like the Russians do today. Separated the civilian population from the Afrikaners who went Commando   and put them under harsh conditions in concentration camps. The Russians transported Ukrainian civilians to Russia and spent their artillery on the civilian infrastructure. If the Russians win don't fool yourself Ukraine as a nation is back in the Russian camp. Less than a generation later South Africa fought as a British Commonwealth country against their former sponsor the German Kaiser. Thanks to the English-speaking South Africans. 

Edited June 9, 2022 by chuckdyke

[LongLeftFlank]

On 6/6/2022 at 7:26 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

Sevierodonetsk. In spite of widely reported statements from Zelenskyy of 'fierce street battles', it looks like in 4 days, the Russians have mainly continued to lob huge volumes of shells into a shattered city the UA has already largely given up (for a second time), while meanwhile conducting operations to push UA rearguards out of the towns east and south, reaching the airport.

None of this is terribly decisive in terms of either reducing or isolating the key UA fortress in the chemical works. The Russians have lost another week, in essence and it is diverting their ebbing combat power from fronts where they might be more likely to achieve a meaningful breakthrough.

Devastation.

Pano views of the city, posted by the regional leader.

Bit of a curious statement by Zelenskyy, not seemingly supported by the actual military situation... but of course he needs to beat the drums for urgent foreign assistance.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

Quote

Dear Ukrainians!

I am happy to inform you that Polish self-propelled artillery units AHS Krab are ready to carry out combat missions at the front.

After M777 and FH70 howitzers, CAESAR self-propelled howitzers and M109A3, these units are the 5th type of 155 mm artillery that we managed to obtain.

Much has changed since the moment of the full-scale russian invasion. Thanks to the men and women defending our country in the Ukrainian defence and security forces, we have the opportunity to look back, assess what has happened during that time and try to look into the future.

A few words on what the Ministry of Defence is focused on.

After 24 February, providing the army with weapons, ammo, military and special equipment has become the top priority.

We had to learn very quickly, because the Ministry of Defence was not adapted to large-scale weapon imports and had no respective competences. Moreover, the state in general had no such competences to a sufficient extent because emphasis had been previously made on the export of domestic weaponry.

We quickly established work procedures in three areas:

• systematic cooperation with partners in order to obtain material and technical assistance;

• purchase of weapons and equipment from Ukrainian manufacturers;

• import through direct contracts of the Ministry of Defence and mechanisms of special exporters.

A key strategic decision of the past period was a change in philosophy: we launched the transfer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to heavy weaponry used by NATO member states. First of all, this applies to artillery, which plays a decisive role.

In early March we were already well aware that during intensive war with russia our resources were depleting and our existing reserves were incomparable to those of the enemy. Relying solely on Soviet weapons was definitely a losing strategy.

Therefore, by turning to our partners for help, we initiated the supply of 155 mm artillery units and other heavy weapons.

Here are just a few examples that have already been publicly announced by our partners.

To this date, the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine has ensured the supply of 150 artillery platforms of 155 mm caliber to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The stockpiles of ammunition of this caliber are already 10% larger than the stockpiles of Soviet-type large-caliber shells that existed before 24 February 2022. Moreover, these new shells are more effective than their Soviet equivalents, and hence their consumption is lower.

At the same time, more than 50 other large-caliber cannons were supplied to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This includes projectiles for them, which constitute over 75% of the amount that existed at the beginning of the full-scale russian invasion.

Dozens of Soviet-type MLRS units and tens of thousands of shells, hundreds of mortars and hundreds of thousands of projectiles for them have strengthened our defence capabilities during this period.

The Ministry of Defence is competing with the russian army for leadership in the supply of tanks and other Soviet-type armored vehicles. We`re talking about hundreds of units.

On a separate note, I would like to single out the dedication and professional work of Ukroboronprom State Concern specialists, who restored or repaired hundreds of military and special equipment units for our soldiers, including captured equipment.

We received around 250 armored vehicles of Western models (M113 TM, M113 YPR-765, Bushmaster, Mastiff, Husky, Wolfhound etc.) from our partners. This line of work continues.

And this is not to mention the MANPADS (Stinger, Starstreak, Mistral, Piorun, Grom etc.), ATGMs (NLAW, Javelin, Milan etc.) and grenade launchers (Panzerfaust, Carl Gustaf, AT4, RGW-90 HH / MATADOR etc.). As you may well know, there are thousands of them.

This is not even close to a complete list. It is too early to talk about certain other modern weapon systems. We will talk of them later. But the enemy will feel their effect on their own skin right now.

In addition, the Ministry of Defense handed over hundreds of drones through various mechanisms, including several dozen combat drones. We are expecting some serious UAVs in the upcoming aid packages.

Our coastal defence was strengthened by highly effective Harpoon complexes. Together with our Neptunes, the Harpoons are already forcing the enemy fleet to keep the distance to avoid the fate of the russian Black Sea Fleet flagship moskva…

The example of weapon supplies clearly shows that all this is teamwork led by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky. The Cabinet of Ministers headed by the Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the Presidential Office led by Andriy Yermak are actively involved into this work.

Defence as a whole is our common cause. Everyone has a role to play in it. Some are fighting for political decisions, some are solving numerous legal, financial and logistical issues. Some are repairing weapons. And the main actors – our soldiers – are using it.

I would like to note that the request for weapons is formed by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After that, teams from the Ministry of Defence, defence attaches and Dmytro Kuleba`s diplomats are working with it. This request changes depending on the current needs and development of hostilities.

The supplied weapons and equipment are centrally transferred by the Ministry of Defence to the warehouses of our Armed Forces. The distribution is carried out by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine because they are exactly those who see the whole picture, form operation plans and set priorities. Let me remind you that in order to obtain the appropriate weapons, commanders must address the Logistics Forces Command.

It is worth noting, for instance, that the initial request of the Armed Forces regarding 155 mm artillery units has been 90% fulfilled by the Ministry of Defence. This need will be 100% fulfilled within a week or two. However, when the circumstances on the battlefield are changing, the needs are increasing too. Our General Staff reacts to operational changes, and the Ministry of Defence alters the task for its team pursuant to the request of the General Staff. We already have a clear artillery supply plan until the end of July.

Important announcement has been made recently: our American and British partners have decided to provide Ukraine with MLRS units. I must note that our soldiers have been learning to operate those weapons for some time.

I had many discussions with foreign colleagues to launch early training for teams with different types of weapons that do not yet have political decisions regarding their supply. Training with some of those weapons began in March. More than 1,500 of our servicemen are currently undergoing training or will begin their training shortly.

I deliberately do not elaborate on the number of radars, medical vehicles, air bombs etc. Soon I will separately reveal details of material and financial support, individual armor protection and control systems.

The gist is important here: we have already received, bought on the market, manufactured and handed over to the Armed Forces of Ukraine a significant number of weapons. These numbers would have been enough for a victorious defence operation against any army in Europe.

But not against russia.

The russian junk has many more means in store to devour human lives in a bid to satisfy its imperial ego.

That is why we emphasize: Ukraine desperately needs heavy weapons, and very fast. We have proved that, unlike many others, we do not fear the Kremlin. But as a country we cannot afford to be losing our best sons and daughters.

Therefore, our goals are as follows:

• to obtain a significant amount of NATO-type MLRS units with ammo;

• to ensure complete replacement of some existing Soviet-type calibers (worn guns, shells not produced or scarce) with platforms that are common in NATO countries and equipped with ammo;

• to agree with partners regarding the transition from supplies of separate platforms to integral organic units immediately ready for combat. This will significantly boost efficiency on the battlefield;

• to ensure the supply of hundreds of heavy armored vehicles, without which effective counterattack is impossible. It should be considered that Soviet equipment is mostly obsolete and needs to be prepared for combat. Meanwhile, we are receiving only light armor from partners, not necessarily with weapons;

• to obtain fighter jets, anti-aircraft and missile defence systems to protect our skies.

To sum up.

I cannot say that I am satisfied with the tempo and quantity of weapon supplies. Absolutely not.

But at the same time, I am extremelygrateful to the countries that support us. In particular, to the Unites States of America, the United Kingdom, Poland and our Baltic friends. And to all other states that help repel russian evil.

I would like to point out the role of the Ukrainian society and volunteers, who due to their speed and flexibility have successfully satisfied and are still satisfying a number of important needs. This applies to UAVs, communications and some other components with regard to which our state is not yet fully operational.

I want to say that we see not only achievements, but also mistakes. We receive all kinds of signals, including criticism. We know our flaws and work hard to correct them.

I still consider the preservation of synergy in the entire military and political leadership to be our main achievement. This is our advantage as a state, and we will not allow this synergy to be shattered by those who are already working with a focus on ratings and political perspectives. As I have already noted, all those who work to strengthen our defenses for the victory of Ukraine constitute a team. And our common goal is to defeat russia, no matter how hard it may be.

The situation at the front lines is difficult. Every day we have up to 100 of our soldiers killed and up to 500 wounded. The kremlin continues to press by sheer mass, stumbles, faces strong rebuff and suffers huge casualties. But yet still has forces to advance in some parts of the front.

It is important to stay focused. Then Ukraine will win!

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukrainian General Staff issued a statement on Western weapons deliveries. A very interesting read as a whole, some especially juicy bits below:

- Ukraine's stockpile of 155mm ammo is already 10% bigger than initial stockpile of Soviet calibers from the start of the conflict

-  Soviet type ammo provided by the allies equals 75% of what Ukraine had at the beginning of the war

- As far as tube artillery is concerned, Ukraine's initial requirement for NATO types is already fulfilled - of course as Soviet types are withdrawn, the need for 155 pieces will grow.

And for the most interesting part. Since March there is some training being done in advance, with weapons that were not yet pledged. 1500 Ukrainian soldiers is training abroad or will begin the training shortly. IMO this is a hint that in the future, western aircraft for UA are being considered.

In overall the whole piece reads very optimistically.

Link to the original FB post

Edited June 9, 2022 by Huba

[AlsatianFelix]

This thread might have to be moved to the CMBB page.

https://twitter.com/aNdr0iz/status/1534844692797476864?s=20&t=IZacsGZji8LLKNkQWzMuLw

Edited June 9, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[Taranis]

While a little offtopic, interesting video on the effects of nuclear warheads

 

[poesel]

Interview with Oberst Reisner, the Austrian guy that does regular videos about this war on Youtube. He is slightly more negative than the general consensus here. His predictions are that Russia will occupy Donezk, the war will be fought to a standstill in winter and continued next spring.

Interview in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Interview-mit-Markus-Reisner-zum-Krieg-in-der-Ukraine-Vier-Raketenwerfer-das-ist-reine-Symbolik-article23377155.html

[The_Capt]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Improved Russian tactics “If before they simply marched in large columns, now they have started to actually fight,” he said. The Russian Army has split its forces into smaller groups, which it uses, along with a sizable fleet of drones, to identify and target Ukrainian positions, hitting them with artillery and air strikes. When a particular zone or village has effectively been levelled, ground troops—a mixture of regular Russian soldiers, Wagner mercenaries, and fighters mobilized from the Russia-backed separatist territories in Donetsk and Luhansk, Tarnavsky said—move in to try to seize the rubble."

-Accounts of massive bombardments, sometimes even (hard to believe) of small Ukrainian squads being targeted by several Tochka missiles. Regular artillery advantage is 7:1, after which follows infantry in advantage 5:1 (mind you, it's general so probably best source around). Seems interesting in the light of changing balance between mass-firepower-manouver hypothesis by Freeman.

So this is interesting.

First, the war at the tactical level is an energy-exchange view and as such rarely reflects the system view.  For example further down the line I am sure there are UA forces dug in and bored as hell because they have not seen any action in weeks.  While a few kms further we have units that are terrified and getting hammered.  One needs to see system-level phenomenon to make conclusions, that or trends at the energy-exchange view that are consistent across a broad set of sampling. 

Next, what is being noted about the Russians appears to be a more in line with a systemic trend as it has been brought up before.  The Russians appear to have abandoned manoeuvre warfare at the front entirely.  This is attrition-to-manoeuvre warfare, and it appears that like the UA the RA has adopted a hybrid approach as well.  If valid, those are enormous firepower overmatch ratios, and given Russian doctrine not that surprising.  The Russians have also integrated UAS into their tactical battle in what has become a series of Find-Fix-Finish-Advance tactical actions.  This tracks against the shift in losses from armor/mech to artillery as well.

Interestingly the RA is not having much success on the offence either.  This is slow, grinding and incredibly costly warfare, akin to WWI.  I suspect the Russians are missing a key metric (as is Freeman) - smartness.  Again, this is how well an operational system can generate and employ knowledge.  Within this concept lies precision, which based on the Russian use of massed firepower is also lacking.  Once again "dim-mass" is not working on the offensive or at least working at a glacial pace, no matter how many UAVs one rubs on it.  Why are the Russians lacking in smartness?  Not sure to be honest.  There has been a lack of C4ISR integration on their side throughout this war tactical-to-strategic.  Considering the rot in the Russian system with respect to material, it should not be too surprising that it also exists within the cognitive sphere.   

I keep coming back to the idea of smart-mass and massed precision in a attrition-to-manoeuvre-to-attrition cycle.  This may seem minor but if one does the math, one has to ask "is manoeuvre warfare as we know it, dead?"  How does one achieve conation shock, leading to physical collapse when your opponent can see everything you are doing well in advance? [aside: JasonC has to be loving this] 

Ukraine did not do this in the opening phase of the war, they instead they used a form of corrosive warfare that led to the physical collapse of an already conative-fragile Russian system.  My point to the Freeman hypothesis is "look under the hood as to why there is something going on between mass-firepower-manoeuvre".

[YouWillOwnNothing]

First I couldn't believe it, now I find it fascinating, that people in this forum, despite having access to the internet, choose to live in the NATO filter bubble.

Edited June 9, 2022 by YouWillOwnNothing

[panzermartin]

50 minutes ago, poesel said:

Interview with Oberst Reisner, the Austrian guy that does regular videos about this war on Youtube. He is slightly more negative than the general consensus here. His predictions are that Russia will occupy Donezk, the war will be fought to a standstill in winter and continued next spring.

Interview in German:
https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Interview-mit-Markus-Reisner-zum-Krieg-in-der-Ukraine-Vier-Raketenwerfer-das-ist-reine-Symbolik-article23377155.html

Thanks, interesting read. He sounds a little optimistic on the resources of the russian army but given the hoaxes we ve been fed from the early days of this war, about russian shortages in gas or long range missiles (and until today already 2000 plus fired) he might be somewhere in the middle of truth. 

I think he is right on the artillery duels outcome. Unless something dramatic happens Russia has the upper hand on this. So it's possible that the Russians might reach Dnipro river from Donbas after all by Autumn. I suspect the Ukrainians defensive lines past Kramatorsk and Slavyansk are not well prepared or deep enough and the terrain there doesn't offer much advantage with sparse and smaller settlements. The winter pause will be critical. If the West goes full steam, Russia will probably collapse under pressure and under a new offensive from a re equipped and well trained UA army. But a stalemate along Dnipro seems more probable, as I'm not sure the West will be decisive in providing more and more weapons as time goes by and the situation is more defined.

 

Edited June 9, 2022 by panzermartin

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

First I couldn't believe it, now I find it fascinating, that people in this forum, despite having access to the internet, choose to live in the NATO filter bubble.

Ah, pro-Russian-troll o'clock again.  Yay.

"NATO filter bubble", you clearly know nothing about NATO.

[hcrof]

2 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

First I couldn't believe it, now I find it fascinating, that people in this forum, despite having access to the internet, choose to live in the NATO filter bubble.

I'm not sure a one sentence comment is gonna change anyone's mind here. Happy to hear a russian perspective but it needs to be a properly constructed arguement.

[Phantom Captain]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

Russian corruption is a feature, not a bug. 

Thanks for your perspective and I am glad you got out.  The above is brilliant sig line material!

[Splinty]

19 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

First I couldn't believe it, now I find it fascinating, that people in this forum, despite having access to the internet, choose to live in the NATO filter bubble.

Do you even have a concept of what  having a free press means? 

[LongLeftFlank]

32 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

trolltrolltrolltrolltroll

слышу голос от параши