How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sross112]

Firms has lit up in the south just north and west of Kherson.

Sounds like sources from both sides saying the UA making progress in Severdonetsk, taking back significant portions of the city.

Couple small successful pushes around Popasna area by the RA but overall pretty stable.

Rumors of UA pushes on the line south of Donetsk.

In the economic news the last couple days a large Russian train car manufacturer has shut down due to lack of ball bearings. The Kremlin is mad at Taiwan as they won't provide them with micro chips or the machinery to make their own micro chips. The Russian sales tax (VT?) for April 2021 was 740 million and April 2022 is 420 million, so a significant reduction in consumption from the sanctions. 

Lots of stuff going on these past couple days. The economic struggles in Russia are becoming more and more real as time goes on and stocks of sanctioned goods are running out. The next couple months might prove fairly catastrophic to their production and manufacturing sectors as more and more industry grinds to a halt. Increasing unemployment will result, which further curtails spending and diminishes the revenue to the government. The snowball is growing.

It kind of looks like a little snowball for the military side too. The UA is seeming to add a little more push back at a time in different areas which I take as a good sign for their logistics and maybe a budding offensive capability. Nothing big yet but if it gets rolling could snowball into real trouble for the RA in their degraded state. 

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Railways aren't an area I'm overly familiar with, but laying whole new sets of track does not sound feasible to me either. If I'm not mistaken, doesn't the gauge Ukraine uses go all the way back to Tsarist times? It might be Soviet era, thouugh, but I do recall reading that it was deliberately non-standard to make invasions more difficult. If Poland didn't lay Soviet gauge track during the Warsaw Pact days, I have trouble seeing it happening now...

There are some standard gauge tracks going into Ukraine, and vice-versa. AFAIK broad gauge reaches as far as Upper Silesia (some industrial track), but in general the break-of-gauge points are in the border areas. 

Building a new rail line as akin to building a new highway, it's a decade long process nowadays, given the population density. Re-gauging existing line from standard to broad is not possible due to tunnels, bridges etc, it's not only track width but the size of carts. It could be done the other way around i.e. switching some UA infrastructure to standard gauge, but it's still insanely big undertaking.

I dug a little bit on this subject, and there isn't really much more going on. The most promising at the moment is the Danube port in Galati, Romania, cause broad gauge line is reaching it directly from Ukraine. Romanians are finishing renovating the line. In this context, Russian attacks on Zatoka Bridge can be viewed as especially dickish, cause all other railway lines go through Moldova, adding additional complications.

Apart from that, as @billbindc mentioned, present export capacity using existing connections is estimated at 600K tons per month, 10% of required throughput. Event with all the improvements, there's no chance to reach the required volumes in the foreseeable future. 

Time to send BSF to the bottom

[dan/california]

Neatly combining the themes of of how we know what we know, and the situation in Severodonetsk, the best open source satellite intelligence on the Ukraine war is a NASA satellite for monitoring fires.

[danfrodo]

37 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

OK folks, what the heck is going on here?  Trying to tie down RU forces?  Opportunistic attacks to attrit RU forces at "low" cost?  I believe there's just one working crossing point over the river at this time?  Seems very strange -- I would love to know what UKR is really up to.  I suspect they are trying to draw local RU forces into a cauldron because UKR wants to do something nasty somewhere else nearby. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, G.I. Joe said:

My inference was that Kraze meant to imply that "smoothie sipping leftists" are prone to talk about their own democratic governments as if they're totalitarian regimes, not that they're pro-Putin. But I may have been misreading his intended meaning...

Otherwise, totally agree... especially the arm the hell out of Ukraine bit...

(And I'm more of a coffee or beer -preferably medium to dark, but I won't say no to a good Pilsner or a less-bitter IPA- kind of guy, but each to their own... )

Ahh okay that makes sense.  Again though I think it is both left and right.  It is almost comical.  You take one issue and one ide will claim it as a right while the other calls it gov't over reach and then the next issue they flip sides.  it is enough to induce motion sickness.

as to beer, I don't often drink beer but when I do - Guinness.  Funny thing, my father who was only second-generation Irish hated it.  He drank PBRs, god awful stuff.  

Back to the war.

Russia blowing up bridges in Sievierodonetsk to thwart Ukrainian reinforcements -regional governor (msn.com)

How many bridges could there be and how important are they to sustaining the Ukrainian forces there?

Edited June 4, 2022 by sburke

[fireship4]

Some points made on a recent 'War in Ukraine' video as to the advantages of holding Sverodonetsk:

• The west bank is higher allowing direct fire support and observation of the city.
• The industrial area is defensible.
• It will tie up RU forces that might otherwise reposition.

Edited June 4, 2022 by fireship4

[dan/california]

Given that the Ukr feel confident pushing more forces into Severodonetsk, i really wonder if there is a large hammer ready to fall on the Popsana salient. 

[sburke]

1 minute ago, fireship4 said:

Some points made on a recent 'War in Ukraine' video as to the advantages of holding Sverodonetsk:

• The west bank is higher allowing direct fire support and observation of the city.
• The industrial area is defensible.
• It will tie up RU forces that might otherwise reposition.

If the other recent posts are accurate Russian manpower resources are strained to the limit and as someone else recently noted - how excited are Russian troops gonna be to fight for ground they'd already paid the cost in blood for?  There is a psychological dimension to this attack that has to further deteriorate Russian morale.

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

He drank PBRs, god awful stuff.

your father was a hipster??

[danfrodo]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Given that the Ukr feel confident pushing more forces into Severodonetsk, i really wonder if there is a large hammer ready to fall on the Popsana salient. 

I would think it would be a hammer north of izyum to cut off that big salient.  But popasna also certainly possible.  Any day now we could see some bigger UKR action.

[poesel]

2 hours ago, akd said:

The export of Russian and Belarussian grain is not blocked.  They are offering to let Ukraine ship grain through their territory (compatible rail) in exchange for sanctions relief (all the while allowing Russia to continue attacking Ukraine from their territory).

Ah, thanks. I just assumed it was blocked. Since the Baltics also run on broad gauge going through Belarus would at least seem possible.

Overview of rail gauges used in the world:

Is Ukraine still attacked from/through Belarus?

IIRC Ukraine plans(!) to switch to standard gauge. Starting with Lviv - Kiev, Lviv - Odessa and a 3rd line I've forgotten. But this will take years to complete.

 

[Sojourner]

Looks like a fairly steady flow of Russian grain and oil. Wonder what it looked like before 24 Feb.

 

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:33.3/centery:43.5/zoom:7

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by Sojourner

[dan/california]

Full agreement with team Steve that the Russians are just out of gas, and men, and morale.

Interesting graph, and an even more interesting interpretation.

[Calamine Waffles]

Kast talks to Dobrev, who has been one of the more prescient analysts when it comes to this war.
 

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

your father was a hipster??

this was long before hipsters... so long that even then Rolling Rock was cheap beer, not the hipster bucket of overpriced rocks it later became. The lowest I ever saw though was Cool Mule grape ale.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

OK folks, what the heck is going on here?  Trying to tie down RU forces?  Opportunistic attacks to attrit RU forces at "low" cost?  I believe there's just one working crossing point over the river at this time?  Seems very strange -- I would love to know what UKR is really up to.  I suspect they are trying to draw local RU forces into a cauldron because UKR wants to do something nasty somewhere else nearby. 

Russia is running out of steam. They have reduced their goals at every turn and now there is no room for further reduction. Already the fact that the city assault begun before the siege was completed tells something. Like that the completion of the siege was seen unlikely by the Russians in any near term.

I would now call the Russian Donbass offensive campaign over. Time to start countering the incoming unfounded stalemate arguments.

[Battlefront.com]

Here's my take on what we're seeing in terms of the fighting.

As I've been saying for a couple of weeks, Russia's ability to conduct offensive activities beyond limited tactical is effectively over.  When people were freaking out about Popasna I was sure that the Russian push would stop and even be reversed.  And what happened?  It slowed and in some spots was pushed back. 

When people were saying that the Izyum attack would start again to link up with Popasna I chuckled because even with more forces in place Russia was unable to move towards Slovyansk.  However, they have in fact withdrawn significant forces from there to go into Severodonetsk and Popasna.  So did people think Russia could do with less forces than they failed to do with even more forces?  Get crushed, of course.

Lyman is another example.  Ukraine has largely dictated the battle's progress as Russia has struggled to complete it's objectives.  No significant threat from that direction even after Russia manages to clean up the eastern bank (which it currently is struggling to do).

While all this was going on we have Ukraine advancing on the extreme left (Kharkiv) and right (Kherson) fronts, with Russia able to do not much in response.  Simply arresting Ukrainian advances did not go well, even in the Kharkiv area where partially rebuilt units were prematurely moved from Belgorad back into Ukraine.  In the southern front between Dnepr and Donetsk we had several Russian attacks squashed flat.  There even seems to be a successful local Ukrainian counter attack going on around Donetsk (though that's still unclear).

The overall take here is that wherever Russia is attempting offensive activities there is an adequate Ukrainian response and wherever Ukraine is attempting offensive activities there's an inadequate Russian response.

This clearly indicates that strategically the initiative has shifted to Ukraine.  At a minimum Russia has lost the strategic initiative, which is highly problematic for them since they need to progress in order to declare some sort of win.

 

Now, what about Serverodonetsk?  I'm smiling quite a lot about this.  Sneaky Ukrainians are playing Russia like a fiddle

Ukraine knows that Russia is DESPERATE to secure territorial gains for political purposes.  This is the wrong motivation for Russian military leadership because they should be focusing on what will win them the war, not what will keep them in the good graces of the Glorious Leader.  Translation... Russian leadership is prepared to engage in risky behavior in order to secure political goals.  When your enemy is desperate and in the mood for risk taking, that's a great time to screw around with them!

What seems to have happened is Ukraine felt it stabilized the Popasna bulge and wasn't seeing any new threats anywhere else.  The front is largely stable everywhere, especially along the Siverskyi Donets as the chances of Russia getting over that in any significant way is near zero.

Ukraine knows Russia's interests were overly tied to a success in Severodonetsk.  They also know that Russia's flanks have been drained of combat capable forces because the few that remain are committed elsewhere.  So what did they do?  They did a sudden pullback in Severodonetsk to make it look like they were withdrawing, which would definitely be a sensible thing for Ukraine to do.  But lo and behold, it was a deliberate trap.  They knew Russia would rush in and claim victory as quickly as possible.  No caution, no concerns about flanks.  And when Russia made its move, Ukraine conducted a counter attack on the flank as well as the front using new forces that were not needed elsewhere.

Brilliant

The next week or so should confirm if my take on this is correct.  We'll know if I'm wrong if we see a significant Russian offensive somewhere that is not contained within a few days.  Anything short of that means that Ukraine has the strategic initiative for the first time in this horrible war.  And that, my friends, means things are going to go from bad to worse for Russia.

Steve

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I would now call the Russian Donbass offensive campaign over. Time to start countering the incoming unfounded stalemate arguments.

going through headlines looking for actual info is giving me a bit of a headache.  half the articles even undermine their own clickbait headlines.  in the last two days they have gone from how Russia is marshaling it's resources and bettering down the Ukrainians to blanketing everything in EW assets, western aid has peaked, the coalition of support is splintering and now Macron saying  "We must not humiliate Russia so that the day when the fighting stops we can build an exit ramp through diplomatic means," Macron said. "I am convinced that it is France's role to be a mediating power."

At least the Wash Post had an article on the counterattack in Sievierodonetsk. Also an article from Ukrainian minister that they have established some level of contact with the troops from Mariupol.

Latest Russia-Ukraine war news: Live updates - The Washington Post

 

and still another fire

Russian Regional Parliament Building Set Ablaze in Siberian City (msn.com)

 

[FancyCat]

France likes to look independent from the rest of the West. While it is in my opinion, a mistake, i guess it serves France domestically, as foreign policy wise, Eastern Europe is gonna be pissed for a good while at Germany and France, and Italy I suppose. As long as they keep sending those Caesar SPGs, they can say whatever they want tho, it won't change the battlefield reality when Ukraine routs the Russians (when that day occurs) and Ukraine's ability to tell France to shove it at the peace talks. 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

One thing I'm curious about is the status of Ukraine's S-200 and S-300V batteries. They have not been seen in this war at all.

[sburke]

Ukraine response to Macron

 

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba slammed French President Emmanuel Macron after he urged world powers not to “humiliate Russia.”

The comment has fared poorly on the international stage and in Kyiv, where Kuleba condemned Macron for the remark. 

“Calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it. Because it is Russia that humiliates itself,” Kuleba tweeted Saturday. 

[Calamine Waffles]

A true rarity: a Ukrainian Shilka performing the AA role
 

 

[Holien]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

The next week or so should confirm if my take on this is correct.  We'll know if I'm wrong if we see a significant Russian offensive somewhere that is not contained within a few days. 

ARE WE THERE YET!!

FFS I hope that we are and Russia will be embarrassed for the foreseeable future. (Beyond my remaining years..)

Steve and The Capt thanks for your continued insights...

[Kinophile]

Going by Ukrainian carefulness, I doubt that we'll see a large scale operational-level Ukrainian offensive. Instead probably more of these (relatively) large-scale tactical counter-offensives (eg NE of Kherson). 

I suspect these are all accumulating as strategic shaping operations ( some deliberate, some opportunistic, some reactive) and that when the operational pushback does actually happen we will probably only know after we've already been watching it for a week.

Ukr GHQ doesnt do Bagrations.

Ref Popasna, Sieverodonetsk, it could be that we're more likely to see a counter-attack on the popasna bulge than anything Lyman. I say this as Popasna is not just vulnerable (as all salients are) but also that it seems to hold an unsafe percentage of Ivans best remaining forces. Cut and destroy that grouping and I suspect UKR would have a much easier time with other offensives after Sieverodonetsk.

If RUS's elites/best vets are gone, but UKR still has theirs (and expanding) then UKR will finally start getting a simultaneous advantage in quality AND quantity of forces, as well as increasing quantity OF quality.

Edited June 4, 2022 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

Ding, Ding, Ding, truly Macron and Scholz are in the process of fundamentally cracking the independent European foreign policy movement, when in response to Putin's aggression towards the EU, they act more in concern with national interests than the interest of all EU states, especially ignoring the sensibilities of the EU eastern flank. The U.S, U.K, and Eastern flank will be quite strengthened at least, but certainly Germany and France are being utterly idiotic, short-sighted, they will not earn goodwill with EE like this.

Ultimately, France and Germany remain cautious, and will remain so while the conflict seems stalemated, but whoever is doing their military analysis needs to be fired in Berlin and Paris. Luckily, Germany at least has major parties supporting Ukraine, and Marcon, while being flighty on Ukraine's victory, indicated in the same interview that France seeks to increase military aid to Ukraine, so i don't think Ukraine is being left to dry supplies wise. 

Let me ask yall this question, if Putin felt that he was truly going to lose in Ukraine (say Germany and France had made the same sort of Ukraine victory statements like U.S and U.K), do you think he would go to the negotiation table faster? Or double down? Cause on one hand, i can see him accepting the loss and retreat back to pre-Feb 26 borders, but on the other hand, this man made the decision to invade Ukraine full-scale in the first place. 

Let me propose to you a interesting alternative, imagine Putin believes he cannot win in Ukraine. Imagine instead of striving for more territories, more optimal positioning for the seizure of territories for Novorossiya, continuing to seek victory (some sort of clear victory) in Ukraine, imagine instead he realizes victory is impossible for Russia, and instead of these absolutely destructive offensives at Izyum, Severodonetsk, Popasna, he had instead went for total stalemate. 

Imagine how much improved the Russian position would be had they not done the offensives prior, and how much more strengthened their ability to counter and inflict damage on the Ukrainian armed forces would be oriented purely defensively. 

In that sense, its perfectly fine Putin thinks the West is cracking. Ukraine needs Russia to bleed out in these poorly done, rushed offensives. Putin will keep ordering these offensives since his wish is not stalemate, not yet, Russian attempts to "liberate" the remaining areas of the disputed oblasts in the East (including the entirety of Kherson oblast) indicate to me, that stalemate is not the Russian goal, Russia seeks to ekk out a victory like the total liberation of Kherson, Luhansk, Donetsk oblasts, and as long as Russia intends on bleeding itself out for those goals, Ukraine should absolutely strive for maximizing the bloodletting. 

In that sense, Macron's words aren't too important, as long as those SPGs get sent to Ukraine. Thats all that matters now, supplies for Ukraine. 

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by FancyCat