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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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Found via the reddit live thread, Newsweek is reporting that the latest comprehensive report by the US intelligence community states that Putin has 're-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer', quoting three unnamed 'U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports'.  'The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.'

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

I guess some group thought he was getting long in the tooth and irradiated him through a wall, as is their wont.

Edited by fireship4
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20 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Found via the reddit live thread, Newsweek is reporting that the latest comprehensive report by the US intelligence community states that Putin has 're-emerged after undergoing treatment in April for advanced cancer', quoting three unnamed 'U.S. intelligence leaders who have read the reports'.  'The assessments also confirm that there was an assassination attempt on Putin's life in March, the officials say.'

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-putin-treated-cancer-april-us-intelligence-report-says-1710357

I guess some group thought he was getting long in the tooth and irradiated him through a wall, as is their wont.

Good and thoughtful article.  Thanks.  The warnings to not read too much into Putin's health, in terms of planning, is sound thinking.  Good to see the US Intel people advising against assuming Putin's death is right around the corner.

The point about a weak Putin being even less likely to order a nuke strike is also logical.  However, his successor might not have the same sorts of problems, so the nuke use possibility is still up in the air.

Steve

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47 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Boy - he is looking a little drained  !

Members of Putin's gang are starting to look like characters at the final act of an organized crime drama. They see "the boss" is in deep trouble and know the "good times" are coming to an end for many of them.

Edited by Harmon Rabb
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42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And yet again, a Chicken Little OpEd piece.  The author, Professor Andrew Latham, isn't widely quoted in the media/journals, but his voice does get heard.  I feel it's appropriate to show why it is I'm so quick to jump on the Chicken Little guys we keep hearing from.

The idea that Russia has to lose in some dramatically obvious way in order to lose decisively never ceases to amaze somebody like me who has seen the US lose in both Afghanistan and Vietnam without ever losing a single battle. 

Edited by billbindc
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2 hours ago, kraze said:

 

Only official statements and confirmations. I wouldn't trust Arestovich, no matter how much I want anything he posts to be true, until confirmed (or better - double confirmed).

In fact I find the guy problematic in that he posts something, it gets hyped, then it turns out to be overstated and people start writing "see - Ukrainians lie".

Some more info on that from Hayday. Not as explicit as Arestovich's, but kept in very much the same spirit:

 

Edited by Huba
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2 hours ago, billbindc said:

I am very doubtful this comes to fruition. Russia never sticks to its agreements so Ukraine (and Turkey) are going to require stringent terms it won't want to make. Russia also has little global leverage at the moment. It's best lever after fossil fuels is the ability to squeeze global food stocks to create painful inflation in the coalition against it. The likeliest motivation for Putin to allow these talks to continue fruitlessly to provide a better pretext for the blockade. Russia will tell India, Mexico and others that would be happy to let their grain through but the warmongers in Brussels and Moscow won't allow it.

As always, it's all tactics all the time.

 

I'm absolutely agnostic regarding this, but some progress is undoubtedly being made:

 

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On 5/31/2022 at 10:40 AM, Cederic said:

Russia has gas and oil, and as soon as they get the chance the EU will relax all sanctions on those, assuring a strong flow of foreign currency into Russian coffers.

Russia will probably start seeing some renewed gas and oil sales to Europe after the war is over. Less the longer this war lasts though. The longer this war takes the more time the EU has to reduce their dependency on Russian oil and gas by securing other suppliers and switching to other power sources. And in the long term, the EU has seen just how dangerous it is to be dependent on Russia for anything. Any renewed sales Russia sees to Europe after the war will be short term, and will dwindle to nothing over the course of the decade. The days of oil and gas sales were numbered anyway, since solving climate change is a high priority. But Russia really accelerated, if not the demise of the global oil and gas industry, at the very least the demise of their own oil and gas industry.

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18 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Gotta give props to Steve who long ago used the words 'cancer' and 'Putin' in the same sentence, long before anyone else thought to. I can't recall the occasion but it was definitely pre-war.

I object. I've been combining those two words for years and years...😉

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Beijing chafes at Moscow’s requests for support, Chinese officials say (msn.com)


Russian officials have raised increasingly frustrated requests for greater support during discussions with Beijing in recent weeks, calling on China to live up to its affirmation of a “no limits” partnership made weeks before the war in Ukraine began. But China’s leadership wants to expand assistance for Russia without running afoul of Western sanctions and has set limits on what it will do, according to Chinese and U.S. officials.


Moscow has on at least two occasions pressed Beijing to offer new forms of economic support — exchanges that one Chinese official described as “tense.” The officials familiar with the talks spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

They declined to share specifics of Russia’s requests, but one official said it included maintaining “trade commitments” predating the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, and financial and technological support now sanctioned by the United States and other countries.

“China has made clear its position on the situation in Ukraine, and on the illegal sanctions against Russia,” said a person in Beijing with direct knowledge of the discussions. “We understand [Moscow’s] predicament. But we cannot ignore our own situation in this dialogue. China will always act in the best interest of the Chinese people.”

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An update to my previous post on the Newsweek article about Putin having had treatment for cancer, again via the reddit live thread:

Quote

After this story was published, the National Security Council sent Newsweek a statement attributable to NSC Spokesperson Adrienne Watson: "Reports that any such intelligence community assessments exist or that they have been briefed to the president are not true."

 

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37 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

An update to my previous post on the Newsweek article about Putin having had treatment for cancer, again via the reddit live thread:

 

Interesting.  That's not a normal thing for the NSC to respond directly to some publicized information.  Multiple possibilities for that, but I doubt it is a straight forward "we're trying to set the record straight" cause/effect.

Steve

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4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  That's not a normal thing for the NSC to respond directly to some publicized information.  Multiple possibilities for that, but I doubt it is a straight forward "we're trying to set the record straight" cause/effect.

Steve

Did some people get a lot closer to revealing sources and methods than they were supposed to?

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1 hour ago, sburke said:

 

Beijing chafes at Moscow’s requests for support, Chinese officials say (msn.com)

"China is in a bind as it seeks to help its most important strategic partner, which started a war that Beijing did not anticipate would now be entering its fourth month, Chinese and U.S. officials said. "

Huh, that unexpectedly long (and good!) article kinda makes it seem like that China's real most important strategic partner is the US.  I'm not sure when Mao said "money talks, BS walks", but sure sounds like he did :)

Steve

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41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Huh, that unexpectedly long (and good!) article kinda makes it seem like that China's real most important strategic partner is the US.  I'm not sure when Mao said "money talks, BS walks", but sure sounds like he did :)

Steve

image.png.fc848956409021d9293b62b26b58e7e6.png

You have to love the way China isn't just not helping but is actually attracting Russian investment to the PRC as industry in Putin's Tsardom are desperate for an infusion of it. My over all take on that article is that it confirms the theory that Xi was led to believe that Ukraine was going to be short and decisive war (taste notes of Austria-Hungary's plans for Serbia) and made his commitments accordingly. When Putin failed to managed it, Xi scaled back his support accordingly. No Kaiser he.

 

Edited by billbindc
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Huh, that unexpectedly long (and good!) article kinda makes it seem like that China's real most important strategic partner is the US.  I'm not sure when Mao said "money talks, BS walks", but sure sounds like he did :)

Steve

China's most important strategic partner IS the US. Without the US upholding the globalised world order, either the Chinese will have to do it themselves or they will be severely degraded in the coming decades. The US's willingness to do so for the past 50 years is what allowed the rise of China.

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