How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's May 16 report cited several Ukrainian claims of destroying ammo and fuel "depots".  I posted aftermath of one, here's a video of another.  Pretty clearly the truck they hit wasn't carrying washing machines:

 

[FancyCat]

OSINT community is quite useful, even if it seems like nationalistic bickering sometimes. Conclusion further down but oryx is doing quite well basically.

 

[Suleyman]

75 T-80Us? That’s crazy they’re gonna run out of tanks if we apply this casualty rate across their entire tank fleet in combat. Is there any chance that there may be propaganda at play or is it fact? 

[JonS]

It's not fact, and it's not propaganda. It's a best (good and credible) effort to log a highly confusing and foggy event.

Edit: afaict, oryx estimate is deliberately conservative. Ie, the real total is definitely higher

Edited May 17, 2022 by JonS

[Kinophile]

Each one is photographed and individually geolocated.

 

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

VII.29. A clever general, therefore, avoids an army when its spirit is keen, but attacks it when it is sluggish and inclined to return. This is the art of studying moods.

VII.30. Disciplined and calm, to await the appearance of disorder and hubbub amongst the enemy:--this is the art of retaining self-possession.

VII.31. To be near the goal while the enemy is still far from it, to wait at ease while the enemy is toiling and struggling, to be well-fed while the enemy is famished--this is the art of husbanding one's strength....

XI.18. If asked how to cope with a great host of the enemy in orderly array and on the point of marching to the attack, I should say: "Begin by seizing something which your opponent holds dear; then he will be amenable to your will."

****

As folks here know, I've been keen for UA to strike along this front since early April.

1. The best outcome of course is a relentless 'march to Azov', routing and destroying all Russian forces between Kherson and Donetsk.

2. But forcing the Russians to divert, commit and expend what's left of their mobile reaction forces (VDV, etc.), airlift and tac airpower in frantic (and likely blundering) efforts to shore up this (for them) remote and extended front could yield Ukraine a victory nearly as great, strategically speaking!

3. It would be an ideal test case for the reconstitute UA mech forces on the attack, steppelands with limited river barriers. A failure to advance as expected, for whatever reason, would not result in a significant defeat or exposure to a Russian riposte, and would provide extremely valuable learnings. At some point UA are going to have to figure out whether they can do this, and IMHO it may just as well be here.

4. It would also force the withdrawal of substantially all Russian assault forces from Azovstal in order to defend their own supply lines.

Guys, I'd take a pause.

Wounded were evacuated but we dont know that it was a military assault to open a corridor or a humanitarian agreement. The latter more likely, there's mention of prisoner swaps. This doesn't sound like the rescue mission youre hoping for. 

Plus, I doubt UKR has the wherewithal or inclination to launch and support an offensive to relieve Mariupol as well as the developing Kharkiv offensive. Why dilute the logistics, staff focus, theatre force balance and operational reserves? They would not be mutually supportive and would require supply to split in two very different streams. 

If UKR does have the logistical and force capacity to simultaneously attack East from Kharkhiv and South East into Mariupol then we're probably on the immediate verge of a Donbass theatre RUS collapse.

But thats a very big if, right now.

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/16/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Yup. Surrender after extracting their wounded.

No relieving attack. A map read will show why. Time, distance, size of Rus forces around Mariupol.

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/16/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

Yup. Surrender after extracting their wounded.

No relieving attack. A map read will show why. Time, distance, size of Rus forces around Mariupol.

Not quite correct.  The language being used by the Ukrainian sources is definitely ambiguous, likely on purpose.  If you read the NYT report very carefully, it's not saying that the garrison surrendered.  What it appears to be is that there's something in the works to get them all out as part of some negotiation.  The wounded that were evacuated is part of that.  If the negotiations fall through, then they might continue to resist.  This is what is being discussed by Ukrainian sources and as of sources that are posting stuff right now about other topics, there's no new reporting that something has changed.

Repeat... no white flag at this point.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Moscow Times has condensed the reported attacks on recruitment offices for the Russian military.

 

[Holien]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Repeat... no white flag at this point.

Hmmm

BBC this morning is saying that the wounded are receiving medical "care" by Russians and the non wounded are in another location being "processed" by the Russians so it does seem like the position has been given up?

Let's hope Ukraine gets everyone back in one piece. 

It's certainly going to be spun by Russia as a surrender. 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Holien said:

It's certainly going to be spun by Russia as a surrender. 

Could have been an exchange between prisoners and wounded. something done behind the scenes.

[LongLeftFlank]

33 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Guys, I'd take a pause.

Wounded were evacuated but we dont know that it was a military assault to open a corridor or a humanitarian agreement. The latter more likely, there's mention of prisoner swaps. This doesn't sound like the rescue mission youre hoping for. 

Plus, I doubt UKR has the wherewithal or inclination to launch and support an offensive to relieve Mariupol as well as the developing Kharkiv offensive. Why dilute the logistics, staff focus, theatre force balance and operational reserves? They would not be mutually supportive and would require supply to split in two very different streams. 

If UKR does have the logistical and force capacity to simultaneously attack East from Kharkhiv and South East into Mariupol then we're probably on the immediate verge of a Donbass theatre RUS collapse.

But thats a very big if, right now.

 

'Rescue mission' never came out of my mouth. A TF Baum type of deep raid (90km) would have *zero* chance of success, would get hammered by air power, and deliver the Russians a badly needed tactical victory, on camera.

I'm talking about a conventional attack by c.2 UA heavy brigades in the general direction Melitopol; to destroy or rout Russian forces opposite and force a full scale RA relief effort which has every chance of turning into yet another C-Fk and further sapping their strength.

The infantry-heavy UA actions to clear the Kharkiv environs and menace the Izyum LOCs can continue. They aren't using their heavy forces for those; the built up terrain is not favourable.

Russia is reeling now, mainly from its own manifest incompetence. A summer 'pause' lets them off the ropes to regroup and dig in on their early gains in the south and in the Izyum-Kreminna river line.  That's all basically stalemate, except for Kharkiv.

I just don't buy the 'collapse' theory. The Russian army must be beaten, on defence, to collapse it. Or they will keep fighting, with whatever they have.

While foreign pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire and 'negotiate' will only rise over time. So with your 'pause' you have just voluntarily ceded the initiative and shifted back to a long game Putin can play and win.

[Holien]

41 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Could have been an exchange between prisoners and wounded. something done behind the scenes.

Hmmm not what I would call behind the scenes. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61461805

Quote

1. Fifty-three heavily injured fighters were taken to the town of Novoazovsk, and another 211 to Olenivka, the deputy defence minister says

There was no easy way out of the situation and if they get their fighters home out of Russian hands job done.

I am just not sure I would trust Russia, but you have to play with the hand you are given.

I have the utmost respect for the Ukrainian fighters and what they have achieved against overwhelming odds. 

Let's see how it plays out...

Edited May 17, 2022 by Holien

[Holien]

33 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

While foreign pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire and 'negotiate' will only rise over time. So with your 'pause' you have just voluntarily ceded the initiative and shifted back to a long game Putin can play and win

Yep the mood music is shifting here in the UK with dire economic forecasts and costs going to hit worst the poorest with a predicted loss of 20% disposable income.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61469532

Already I have heard mention by folk on the street in the UK that we should not be spending so much money in Ukraine and we should be helping the cost of living crisis at home.

The war in Ukraine is being blamed for these problems and while their is still popular support once people have to choose heating or food the support will slip away and political posturing move to focus on the economic crisis heading our way. Many families don't have a 20% margin to absorb the price rises coming down the tracks.

Ukraine has to win soon and can't afford to wait until winter so let's hope Russian forces do just collapse with a few well aimed kicks with the fresh reserves and weapons systems being brought to bear. I am hoping that August is possible. 

[kraze]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

damn.  That's no way to treat your goddaughter.

Putin brands his own goddaughter as a ‘foreign agent’ for ‘working with his enemies’ throughout the Ukraine war (msn.com)

Make no mistake, Sobchak is just as evil and fascist as her godfather. Recently she made an hour long propaganda video blaming NATO (and US in particular) for the war and claiming that poor putin simply was forced to defend himself.

It's just that she managed to jump off the sinking ship in time and now spreads anti-ukrainian and anti-western propaganda from Israel, a luxury even putin's oligarchs don't have, as they are forced to stay home.

And that's what made godpa upset.

Edited May 17, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

A friend who was watching Polish developments early in this war told me something interesting: the Polish government was *not* favorable to accepting Ukrainian refugees when it all began but it was rocked on its heels by the intense outpouring of support for them by the Polish public and had to reverse course immediately. Outside of Hungary, similar sea changes in opinion have  happened across the EU.

And in the past few days for the first time since Feb 24 there are more people returning than leaving.

Guess home is home and it's better to build Europe here, now that more people seen it and have an idea what personal ideas they want to bring here from abroad.

[Holien]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Guess home is home and it's better to build Europe here, now that more people seen it and have an idea what personal ideas they want to bring here from abroad.

Yep an unintended consequence of the war, people getting to see how other countries behave and operate by staying there. My whole world view was changed after a year as an exchange student in America with folk from all over the world. That one year was the most influential on my education than any amount of time spent in a classroom.

 

I hope they have learnt good lessons and that Ukraine benefits.

[Holien]

Just seen this on another site I follow and just made me smile...

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, billbindc said:

 

Well worth watching in full.

This is about as close to von Rundstedt's "Make peace, you fools!" as you are likely to see in Russian media.

Edited May 17, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

'Rescue mission' never came out of my mouth. A TF Baum type of deep raid (90km) would have *zero* chance of success, would get hammered by air power, and deliver the Russians a badly needed tactical victory, on camera.

I'm talking about a conventional attack by c.2 UA heavy brigades in the general direction Melitopol; to destroy or rout Russian forces opposite and force a full scale RA relief effort which has every chance of turning into yet another C-Fk and further sapping their strength.

The infantry-heavy UA actions to clear the Kharkiv environs and menace the Izyum LOCs can continue. They aren't using their heavy forces for those; the built up terrain is not favourable.

Russia is reeling now, mainly from its own manifest incompetence. A summer 'pause' lets them off the ropes to regroup and dig in on their early gains in the south and in the Izyum-Kreminna river line.  That's all basically stalemate, except for Kharkiv.

I just don't buy the 'collapse' theory. The Russian army must be beaten, on defence, to collapse it. Or they will keep fighting, with whatever they have.

While foreign pressure on Ukraine to accept a ceasefire and 'negotiate' will only rise over time. So with your 'pause' you have just voluntarily ceded the initiative and shifted back to a long game Putin can play and win.

 

Chinese OSINT analyst Suyi, notes the following regarding the southern front ('land bridge'):

The initial actions of the Russian army in the direction of Kherson-Melitopol-Tokmak were indeed impressive, and it should be said that this was the direction in which the Russian army performed best in the first phase of the war.

However, it should also be noted that after the Russian army arrived in Tokamak, it was 200 kilometers away from Dankoy, the railway terminal on the Crimean Peninsula. During this period, there were only a few hardened roads (no more than 2 main roads) to maintain logistics, which has placed the limit on the Russian military offensive.

In addition, due to the fact that the Russian army entered a centrifugal offensive after crossing the Perekop Isthmus, its existing 2 armies and 1 army were continuously diluted, and in multiple campaign targets (Nikolaev-Voznexian, hesitating between Sk-Odessa, Novikahovka-Krivorog, Meritopol-Tokmak, Berdyansk-Mariupol).

It is hard to imagine that it can quickly capture Zaporozhe, a city with a population of 750,000 (such a city needs at least 30,000 troops to fight, which is equivalent to 1/2 of the fighting force on the southern front, and the Russian army cannot concentrate so many troops), regardless of the threat to Dnipro. Judging from the results, except for Berdyansk-Mariupol, the four follow-up targets of the Russian army's southern cluster were all bankrupt and suffered heavy losses, and were soon turned to defense.

[LongLeftFlank]

Very nice maps here showing the unit positions in the noted fronts, as well as the various crossroads and bridges.

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Huba]

Keeping the pressure up so Ukrainians don't transfer more units from the "safe" areas I presume:

Also, regarding the discussion of what to do with people from LDPR:

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

 

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

At Bilohorivka, the 12th Guards Engineering Brigade’s (Central Military District) commander Col. Denis Kozlov was killed.  This is the second loss of a commander for the Brigade:

 

Edited May 17, 2022 by akd