How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Pete Wenman]

Suggestion as to how far RU forces got once across the infamous bridges before being beaten back

P

[Homer The Doomer]

I hope this hasn't been posted before: cut and edited phone camera footage of a young Russian NCO's life before and during the invasion released by Ukraine after his capture. It sheds a fascinating and disturbing light on the Russian army and its perspective on the war. 

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Homer The Doomer

[Splinty]

18 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We see but it pays for us not to be reliant on the way in which the US citizens will vote. If it is true what you say about your media. The likes of Fox News should be held to account what journalism is all about.  

Fox is the one that leans right, CNN and MSNBC lean just as hard left. Why is Fox the one you attack? I'm neither Democrat of Republican, but I do that see both sides of the political aisle and their supporting media outlets are incredibly biased and corrupt.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Splinty

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Splinty said:

Why is Fox the one you attack?

Owned by Rupert Murdoch.

The destructive Rupert Murdoch - Pearls and Irritations (johnmenadue.com)

[alison]

 

33 minutes ago, Huba said:

Phew, I managed to read it but it was painful - official Party line I presume? Loaded with Communist talking points and phraseology. I do not doubt that this is what is being officially presented - the article I linked surprised me by not being written in this spirit. I don't pretend to know what Xi and his court really think, just wanted to point out that different than official opinions are being voiced too.

Like hcrof, I also tend to be less excited by stories of retired or aging diplomats and academics that stray too far from the party line in China. If they don't have much political capital (any more), then they don't have much to lose by speaking their mind. In many cases their piece simply gets censored and everyone moves on.

It is important to remember that diversity of thought does exist in the country - over a billion people are obviously not a singular bloc! But the real question is whether a dissenting opinion actually matters in practice. The party propaganda is created for a reason - not just to influence the opinions of the masses, but also to signal to the PLA and party members all the way down to the lowliest cadre the direction that Xi and the politburo want to take. When public statements that go against the party line rapidly get censored, it's not always about hiding the information, it's also sending a message to the elites what positions are appropriate to discuss openly and what must be kept behind closed doors. And Xi has definitely overseen a tightening in how far people who value their political futures can diverge from the party line.

I am quite sure that the top players in the party are aware of Russia's waning power on the global scale, and that they are disappointed that the current war looks to push Ukraine and perhaps other 16+1 countries more into the European sphere. But that can't be the official messaging, because it would undermine certain other narratives the party is trying to create, in particular in relations with countries in the Global South. The party deliberately presents China as a benevolent alternative, offering a "win-win" partnership in contrast to the "Cold War mindset" of the US and its aggressive and colonialist allies etc etc. I think from the party's perspective there is not much to gain by painting the US or other democratic countries as the good guys in this conflict, so why allow prominent individuals to do it? Better to publicly present a unified opinion to the world, one that is more aligned with their longer term political goals.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, alison said:

 

Like hcrof, I also tend to be less excited by stories of retired or aging diplomats and academics that stray too far from the party line in China. If they don't have much political capital (any more), then they don't have much to lose by speaking their mind. In many cases their piece simply gets censored and everyone moves on.

It is important to remember that diversity of thought does exist in the country - over a billion people are obviously not a singular bloc! But the real question is whether a dissenting opinion actually matters in practice. The party propaganda is created for a reason - not just to influence the opinions of the masses, but also to signal to the PLA and party members all the way down to the lowliest cadre the direction that Xi and the politburo want to take. When public statements that go against the party line rapidly get censored, it's not always about hiding the information, it's also sending a message to the elites what positions are appropriate to discuss openly and what must be kept behind closed doors. And Xi has definitely overseen a tightening in how far people who value their political futures can diverge from the party line.

I am quite sure that the top players in the party are aware of Russia's waning power on the global scale, and that they are disappointed that the current war looks to push Ukraine and perhaps other 16+1 countries more into the European sphere. But that can't be the official messaging, because it would undermine certain other narratives the party is trying to create, in particular in relations with countries in the Global South. The party deliberately presents China as a benevolent alternative, offering a "win-win" partnership in contrast to the "Cold War mindset" of the US and its aggressive and colonialist allies etc etc. I think from the party's perspective there is not much to gain by painting the US or other democratic countries as the good guys in this conflict, so why allow prominent individuals to do it? Better to publicly present a unified opinion to the world, one that is more aligned with their longer term political goals.

So just a note that the language, as painful to read as it is, is really not strange to me as a Pole   We had our share of that in our time, just not in the last 3 decades.

In general, the article I linked didn't strike me more as being critical of quagmire that Russia got itself into, than painting US or Ukraine in a positive light. A pragmatic view basically, but of course as you wrote, not in line with the official party line and not one that can be adapted as official. Still AFAIK the Chinese support for the war in Ukraine is nothing compared to what it could be if PRC really wanted to see Russians win - it is in no way a Chinese proxy war with the West at this point.

[hcrof]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Still AFAIK the Chinese support for the war in Ukraine is nothing compared to what it could be if PRC really wanted to see Russians win - it is in no way a Chinese proxy war with the West at this point.

It is very interesting to see the disconnect between what the Chinese say and what they do at this point. I am not sure that tension is sustainable in the long term but I have no idea which direction they will eventually turn.

Edited May 13, 2022 by hcrof

[keas66]

26 minutes ago, Splinty said:

Fox is the one that leans right, CNN and MSNBC lean just as hard left. Why is Fox the one you attack? I'm neither Democrat of Republican, but I do that see both sides of the political aisle and their supporting media outlets are incredibly biased and corrupt.

Fox is Fox  - and most thinking people know exactly where they stand - and it is about as far right as you can get . If you want "even" coverage  of the news in the US you don't have a lot of real good options except maybe the PBS  .

[Ultradave]

NVM

(deleted to avoid descending into partisan politics)

Edited May 13, 2022 by Ultradave

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Rand Paul is a crackpot and always has been.

Still, he got elected to the senate even as a presidential candidate one time. The next step of a democracy is to descend into anarchy. We will see some of it I am afraid. Last presidential election had the alarm bells up all over the world. Ukraine would be Russia today if it had gone the other way. 

[chuckdyke]

Words fail me about this 'Crackpot'. The US divide on full display, just oppose because somebody can. This guy has been to university. Democracy when one person can stop a democratic decision?

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Offshoot]

53 minutes ago, Homer The Doomer said:

I hope this hasn't been posted before: cut and edited phone camera footage of a young Russian NCO's life before and during the invasion released by Ukraine after his capture. It sheds a fascinating and disturbing light on the Russian army and its perspective on the war. 

 

It says at the end that this guy was the de facto assistant chief of staff of the regiment, and the video gives the impression he has no idea what is going on. If it is a good representation, it is no wonder the Russians are where they are.

[Homer The Doomer]

22 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

It says at the end that this guy was the de facto assistant chief of staff of the regiment, and the video gives the impression he has no idea what is going on. If it is a good representation, it is no wonder the Russians are where they are.

That's what struck me too... He doesn't know what day it is and doesn't seem sure about what village he's in. When they drive up to some destroyed vehicles with Zs all over them, he asks "are they theirs or ours?" 

 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Homer The Doomer

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Another step in military support for Ukraine:

And a step back:

 

Blocking aid during a time sensitive crisis situation where lives are on the line.

Stay classy Rand.

[LongLeftFlank]

47 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Words fail me about this 'Crackpot'. The US divide on full display, just oppose because somebody can. This guy has been to university. Democracy when one person can stop a democratic decision?

 

Can you take a hint? Or about 5? Shut this down, now.

[Harmon Rabb]

New photographs of M777s in Ukraine.

[purpheart23]

32 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Blocking aid during a time sensitive crisis situation where lives are on the line.

Stay classy Rand.

We have our own issues, with supply chains, inflation, housing costs, last thing we need to do is print 40 bn more dollars to send to Europe to be laundered and for a war that's well on it's way to being decided.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This was already settled month or so ago directly with Turkey. Finnish PM, president and FM have had (often multiple) talks with every NATO member and made sure the road is clear. Turkey has stated to support Finland ascension to NATO. 

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000008718096.html (translate works)
 

Erdogan has any number of medium sized issues with both the EU and the US. It is possible he wants a corrupt Turkish banker let out of jail, or some obscure corruption based sanction lifted. Maybe he wants some level of forgiveness for the S-400 deal? Needs must when the devil is driving, pay the man and move on. It grates my *%$&$& but I am sure Orban will want some sort of bribe/concession as well. Just part of it.

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

We have our own issues, with supply chains, inflation, housing costs, last thing we need to do is print 40 bn more dollars to send to Europe to be laundered and for a war that's well on it's way to being decided.

Would you rather pay a few trillion taking on Russia directly when they decide to have a go  in another decade  or two  ?

 

[purpheart23]

Just now, keas66 said:

Would you rather pay a few trillion taking on Russia directly when they decide to have a go  in another decade  or two  ?

 

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

[c3k]

Once again, this thread is valuable when it stays on the topic of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

(As a citizen of the United States, do any of you think my opinion of Dutch politicians, Australian politics, or worse, a combination of both, would either be pertinent or accurate?)

 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, purpheart23 said:

Can I borrow your crystal ball?

Betting on Russian aggression towards its near neighbors might be the safest bet going.

[OldSarge]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Erdogan has any number of medium sized issues with both the EU and the US. It is possible he wants a corrupt Turkish banker let out of jail, or some obscure corruption based sanction lifted. Maybe he wants some level of forgiveness for the S-400 deal? Needs must when the devil is driving, pay the man and move on. It grates my *%$&$& but I am sure Orban will want some sort of bribe/concession as well. Just part of it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-moves-to-strike-us-arms-deal-with-turkey-report-says-as-erdogan-uses-ukraine-peacemaker-role-to-restore-reputation-in-dc/ar-AAX9DOP?ocid=uxbndlbing

Erdogan is definitely using the Ukraine situation to his advantage.

In a sign that the US has warmed to Turkey's efforts to support peace negotiations, Biden on a March 10 call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan "expressed appreciation" for Erdogan's efforts to "support a diplomatic resolution to the conflict."

In another move that will likely have pleased the US, Turkey supplied Ukraine with armed drones after Russia invaded, which have since been used on Russian troops. 

As a result of the Ukraine crisis, the US and Turkey have resumed their dormant "strategic dialogue," The Journal reported.

Edited May 13, 2022 by OldSarge

[purpheart23]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Betting on Russian aggression towards its near neighbors might be the safest bet going.

Undoubtedly, that's why THEY should start preparing.

[Raptor341]

12 minutes ago, purpheart23 said:

Undoubtedly, that's why THEY should start preparing.

There has never been a better time to deliver a major strategic defeat to the Russians - whatever it takes to keep Ukraine intact (and victorious) and Europe united will paid dividends in the long run. 
 

This isn’t even taking in the moral and legal context of why maximum support for Ukraine now should create a more stable, more rules based Europe over the long term. 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Raptor341