How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Centurian52]

16 hours ago, CivE said:

I'm about ten pages behind the thread by now, but one question about terminology. Does this really count as "light" infantry? ATGMs and MANPADS are solidly in the territory of heavy weapons. The ISR capabilities are only cheap and light because the civilian communication infrastructure is intact, but in more austere or contested environments similar capabilities would require truckloads of pricey gear. Sometimes light infantry denotes units with high mobility on foot, or easy to transport, but it looks like the Ukrainian infantry is succeeding more by being everywhere ahead of time rather than dashing to where they are needed. Sometimes "light" means a smaller number of soldiers per small unit, and that fits with the two-guys in a treeline idea. So what do you mean by light infantry, and do you think it is an important distinction?

Apologies if someone already answered this. This is a very crowded thread. Light basically means they are unarmored (not carried in armored vehicles). Their weapons can be as heavy as you like (in fact they would be considered very poorly armed if they only had small arms, to the point that they might practically be considered unarmed), but as long as they don't have any AFVs they are "light infantry". I could hardly imagine any unit not having ATGMs and MANPADS in a modern war, regardless of how "light" it nominally is. "Heavy infantry" means "mechanized infantry".

[akd]

Gavins! Russia is doomed:

(Dutch YPR-765s)

Edited May 12, 2022 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

Czech RM-70 in Ukraine.

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1524783663908634624/photo/3

Sorry, is this really a second crossing attempt on the same river?

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1524783663908634624/photo/3

Sorry, is this really a second crossing attempt on the same river?

The level of ineptitude is staggering...

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1524783663908634624/photo/3

Sorry, is this really a second crossing attempt on the same river?

Hey, we found the boats!  They do not look so well.

[chrisl]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1524783663908634624/photo/3

Sorry, is this really a second crossing attempt on the same river?

Two of the pics at least look like a different (and steeper) spot.  Third pic from a distance looks like the actually got it straight across at the “blue” crossing point, but this time it sank on the origin side.

[sburke]

Not to bring up the subject of Biolabs again but there is a good article in march rolling stone about the effort to get rid of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. It is a good example of the work the threat organization does and the complexity in eliminating these weapons.   They had a copy in the waiting room while I was getting my second booster.

Edited May 12, 2022 by sburke

[Kinophile]

Ahah so it was an evac bridging to get the isolated RUS bridgehead forces back across.

Still, they left a bunch more equipment.

I'm waiting for the inevitable tractor video of a several JDs pulling the bridges out, and a few Fords tootling along roads with the bridging boats on trailers.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Although particularly crucial in the last sentence [smoke, AD, artillery] appears somewhat tautological perhaps it was necessary - in this instance it seems that all three were absent.  Perhaps Russian progress in tactical acumen versus the first week of the 'special operation' is that at least they remembered to rock up for a gap crossing operation with bridging kit .... crawl, walk run etc 

Heh.  You focused on the last sentence, I focused on the first one:

A hasty attack across a water obstacle from the march is conducted to maintain the high tempo of the advance, seize bridgeheads, rapidly develop the opposite shore or secure an assembly area for an upcoming operation. 

This battle drill is for bounding over a river when the enemy is in disorganized and (presumably) under pressure from other directions.  It relies on speed and shock to achieve success, yet still requires a bunch of deliberate activities to increase the chance of success.  Russia did not appear to follow almost any of this doctrine from what we can tell.  Plus, this particular doctrine isn't even applicable as the crossing was NOT an operation to "maintain the high tempo of the advance".  Instead, this was a deliberate attack against an organized, in position opposing force.  Whatever the Russian drill is for that, it is certainly not going to be LESS than one you posted.

Another example of the Russians trying to do operational activities at the tactical level...

This river crossing should have been originated at the theater level and coordinated there.  The various CCAs operating BTGs along the Donets should have all been involved in this crossing.  There should have been widespread activities that would have obscured the specific intentions and confused the Ukrainian defenders.  And why not?  Operational surprise didn't exist, therefore no reason to try and protect it.

I would have had BTGs all along the Donets pick a couple of possible crossing points, get fires/smoke going, run vehicles around all night long.  Pepper Ukrainian side of the river with artillery.  Ukraine is listening to comms, so get all kinds of false chatter going.  Heck, I'd even get those loudspeaker systems in place and blare Rammstein cranked to 11 to make it even harder to know what is going on.  In short, make it seem like 100km of river is about to be breached in multiple locations.  Then, right before the real assault, send very small and noisy raiding parties to the Ukraine side to shoot up known positions with small arms and RPG fire just to make it even more difficult to know what and where the real attack is coming.

The Soviets used to be very good at this stuff.  Seems Russia has forgotten how.

Steve

[akd]

Battalion “Kraken” clears Pytomnyk north of Kharkiv.  Captured MT-LB is from 200th MRB.

92nd Mech Brigade during road wars around Kharkiv:

A bit more on refuzniks:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/12/they-were-furious-the-russian-soldiers-refusing-to-fight-in-ukraine?CMP=share_btn_tw

Edited May 12, 2022 by akd

[Huba]

Take with a grain of salt of course. What's sure is that Russians didn't give up on the Snake Island, which slowly turns into Black Sea Fleet's Chornobayivka. 

 

Edited May 12, 2022 by Huba

[asurob]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

Take with a grain of salt of course. What's sure is that Russians didn't give up on the Snake Island, which slowly turns into Black Sea Fleet's Chornobayivka. 

 

I was just coming to post this.  At some point...the Russian navy will figure out it's a bad idea to sail anywhere within missile range right guys?  Right?

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, asurob said:

I was just coming to post this.  At some point...the Russian navy will figure out it's a bad idea to sail anywhere within missile range right guys?  Right?

Its on the to-do list.  Right after "combined arms" and "logistics", and slightly in front of "do not try the same water crossing more than three times [baby steps]"

Edited May 12, 2022 by The_Capt

[Harmon Rabb]

34 minutes ago, asurob said:

I was just coming to post this.  At some point...the Russian navy will figure out it's a bad idea to sail anywhere within missile range right guys?  Right?

If I did not know any better I would say that the Russian Navy and Army are in a competition to show the world who is less competent.

[Machor]

Russia refused an offer from Turkey and Ukraine to evacuate and intern the Azovstal defenders in Turkey in exchange for one thousand Russian POWs:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Well, some recent video has shown that I was, indeed, incorrect about the BLUE bridge and the swimming that happened from there.  In the earlier images before BLUE was built that particular area is covered with trees/brush dense enough that no vehicles crossed from there.  After RED was destroyed they cleared it and tried establishing BLUE there.

As for the swimmers, there's lots of tracks going into the water and there does seem to be a place for them to come out by the destroyed far end of RED.  Therefore, I'm going to revise my guess at what happened and am going to try using some ground level pictures to show what the banks looked like.  Just have to geolocate a few more details.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Machor said:

Russia refused an offer from Turkey and Ukraine to evacuate and intern the Azovstal defenders in Turkey in exchange for one thousand Russian POWs:

Shows how much Russia cares about their POWs as well as their lack of concern for the soldiers dying to take a pointless bit of land.

Steve

[gregb41352]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Its on the to-do list.  Right after "combined arms" and "logistics", and slightly in front of "do not try the same water crossing more than three times [baby steps]"

epic quote

[Machor]

Russian forces in Kharkiv oblast requisitioned and militarized a Zhiguli (the headlamps indicate a VAZ-2101, i.e. 1988 or older), only to lose it in combat - a sad end for a classic: 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Its on the to-do list.  Right after "combined arms" and "logistics", and slightly in front of "do not try the same water crossing more than three times [baby steps]"

and way down the list from more urgent priorities

find a washing machine

grab whatever clothing you can find

figure out how to break into an electronics store

[chuckdyke]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

LOL, barely visible on that black line....  Before / After

I think we have been lucky. Dutch engineers constructed some of the bridges and one of them was my ancestor. Charles and Louis were entered in the birth registrar. Charles after Charlemagne and Louis (Lodewijk) after Napoleons brother. The reason you have Chuck here lol. European politics were defined after the Vienna Congress. 

[Phantom Captain]

28 minutes ago, sburke said:

and way down the list from more urgent priorities

find a washing machine

grab whatever clothing you can find

figure out how to break into an electronics store

Maybe not put your helicopters in the same spot at the same airport, how many times now?

[FancyCat]

So much for compromise.....while I expected Ukraine to harden, looks like Russia has decided to harden as well, for some stupid reason. 

 

 

[Fenris]

This guy is often amusing