How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

If I just think about all those "Jack in the Box" tank vids, there surely are a lot of MIAs without any chance to be identified.

There was a case, during Debaltsevo battle in 2015 one our BMP was destroyed and one crewman considerd as MIA about two years. Burned BMP was moved to metalworks factory as a scrap metal. A worker, who inspected vehicle from inside has spotted suspicious small thing, which looked like remains of organic. Police and forensic experts arrived to factory for investigation, and after analysys it was found this is human body fragment. Despite it suffered high temperature, the lab could extarct DNA specimen and it matched with specimen of parents of missed soldier. 

On post-Soviet space there is a proverb "scary, like a tanker's death"...  

Edited May 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Hmm…

 

[The_Capt]

33 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Augh!  I'll be seeing 2 x 2s next.

Be warned, @sburke and I 'decided' a few pages back that the entire global management consultant corps should be 'engaged' on the Donetsk front... with one bolt action rifle for every 2 empty suits (that's about as much real world technology as they could figure out how to use).

So congratulations, I think we just found the general to lead that legion of the damned into hell! 

 

 

 

Ya, this is the point where most decide to tap out on these sorts of concept discussions.  There are very few, even in the business, who like to get down into the deep end here.  One starts to question one’s perception of reality after awhile.  And then the “suits” steal it, slap it on power-points and misuse and abuse them to their ends in buzzword hurricanes.

Basically go with my first post this morning, it is how it all links back to the current war.

 

[alison]

Hi all, I am a new account on this forum, but I have been reading this thread every day for the past couple months after getting referred to it from elsewhere. This thread, the daily ISW reports and Perun's videos are my primary sources for keeping track of what's going on in this war and why. Thank you everyone for the great contributions.

My account took a couple days to get approved, so this comment is out-of-date relative to the comment I wanted to respond to, but there have been several times the topic of China came up so I thought it would be worth posting anyway. I hope it's still interesting to someone. If not, please scroll past, I don't want to distract too much from the excellent analysis you all are sharing.

On 5/8/2022 at 1:54 AM, Battlefront.com said:

Not entirely from what I've noted over the years.  The Communist dogma still existed, but it's been steadily eroded by the need to develop a more market based economy (which requires a more marked orientated population).  Now it's more about the party as an entity than an ideological belief.  Worryingly, it's becoming increasingly about the Xi personally.  At least that's my take on it, though I readily admit my focus is on Russia so I could be quite a bit off on this.

Steve

This is an area where I have a personal interest and some first-hand experience, having lived in China for several years.

I don't think it is very helpful to describe China (or any authoritarian country) as merely left wing or right wing, in particular when that statement comes from partisans in a democratic country. All too often there is a cynical incentive to try to associate the policies of the authoritarian regime with opposing political factions in the democratic system. I think it's better to assess the policies on their own.

Xi has overseen several socially conservative policies - for example broadcast restrictions on media featuring tattoos, piercings, effeminate men, same-sex relations and so on. But this is only part of a larger scale censorship effort that has also seen arrests of local citizen reporters and foreign media not only blocked at the Great Firewall but also pushed out of reporting from inside the country at all. He also spearheaded a popular anti-corruption campaign that coincidentally targeted all the senior party officials that might stand against him. And, of course, he removed term limits and will likely get a third term in the upcoming national congress. These are suspiciously autocratic moves, which is worrying in a country that since Deng has at least made a pretense of winding back the power of figureheads and trying to build more of a loyalty to the party as an abstract entity.

Xi has also allowed a populist rise of nationalism, xenophobia and Islamophobia, and he has put a strong emphasis on increasing national security and modernizing the military. One aspect of this was a revision to the national defense law that expanded the justifications for military actions, and placed more power into a military commission headed up by Xi.

On the other hand, in the past few years the party has also strengthened government controls over business. Notably it halted the IPO of Ant Financial, often portrayed overseas as a punishment for Jack Ma (co-founder of Alibaba) commenting on excessive regulation, but more likely just because the party wasn't happy that some of these tech giants are a threat to its power. Since then it has also been using anti-monopoly guidelines and other means to regulate major players in industries such as finance, tech and education. It's also hit several high-profile individuals for tax evasion, and for a brief period the official messaging seemed to be that speculation on real estate and the pursuit of excessive wealth was inappropriate, although that seems to have been tempered somewhat due to the COVID-related economic slowdown.

But a key point running through all of these policies is this: 党政军民学，东西南北中，党是领导一切的 - government, military, society and education - east, west, south, north and center - the party leads everything. And who leads the party? Recently the phrase "with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core" has become more common in the state media. This political structure isn't comparable to democratic countries where there is no singular authority and it's normal to have spirited and open debates on the issues.

I think the main thing to take away from Chinese politics under Xi is not to figure out if he represents a version of the left or the right in a democratic country, but to understand that his primary motivation is to ensure that the party retains control over every aspect of society. All policies are designed with that goal in mind. In my opinion Xi does have generally nationalist and socially conservative views, but I think he is also mindful that wealth inequality can lead to unrest and the downfall of the party, and that would be the ultimate sin.

TLDR: what Steve said

On how this affects the war in Ukraine - both the state media apparatus and the prevailing chatter on social media (which is ultimately shaped by what the state chooses not to censor) is solidly in the camp of this war somehow being a result of NATO expansion and American hegemony. I don't think there is an easy way for the party to publicly roll back its support for Putin. The issue will probably just remain in the current limbo, with the party simply claiming to remain neutral or impartial.

On what it portends for Taiwan - it's definitely useful for the party to study and learn from this war, but I don't think it will have an impact on its timeline for taking Taiwan. The party has enough problems with zero-COVID and a teetering economy right now - I don't think it is in a position to fast-track any actions. I suspect we might see some more signaling after Xi is confirmed for a third term (second half of this year) and then after the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan, which is likely to be the first where 18-20 year olds can vote (referendum on that later this year). Either way, it's interesting to see how the party has built up the mythology of Taiwan as a wayward little brother who is temporarily misguided and will someday return to the fold. That has benefits in that it creates popular support for "unification", but it might also make a full-blown invasion unpopular. Annexation is surely off the table now, after the PR disaster of Hong Kong 2019. A naval blockade is often suggested as a way to strangle the island, but that might only strengthen its people's resolve. I think if the party is to succeed in its designs on Taiwan, it will need Putin's failed "take the capital in 3 days" strategy to actually work. I would be very interested in a wargame that tackles this scenario.

Anyway, back to my lurking hole, and thanks again for the fantastic thread.

Edited May 9, 2022 by alison
typo

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Hmm…

Usual proceeding in Russia. All state-employees are forced to participate in theese "immortal regiment" marches. Often they carry even not photos of own grandpas, which participated in GPO, but just random portraits, given to them by organzators.  

Edited May 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

38 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

1. Putin is so totally unprepared to make a regime life-or-death decision that he's putting it off.  Maybe he hopes something will change to make the decision easier.  Maybe he's so afraid of the decision that he's paralyzed by it. 
2. He's waiting for something we're not taking into consideration.  Maybe there's some strategic timing that he sees coming up and is biding his time.  Maybe he thinks he has an ace up his sleeve and needs to get it ready first.  Perhaps he's figured out a way to minimize the risk of mobilization but he's not been implemented yet.

 

With a little bit of contemplation and if I had to bet, I would go with option 1 above. Putin has had decades of capital built up on the idea that he's a canny player and an astute strategist. You can see it everywhere in the DC where people just assume that he's got something else going on no matter how badly botched any particular situation appears. But the simplest and most efficient answer to the question is that he see doesn't see a dramatic general mobilization as a viable answer to his problem and...given what he and we know about that the progress of the war...that means there's likely no answer amenable to the Putin regime at all. So...paralysis.

[LongLeftFlank]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya, this is the point where most decide to tap out on these sorts of concept discussions.  There are very few, even in the business, who like to get down into the deep end here.  One starts to question one’s perception of reality after awhile.  And then the “suits” steal it, slap it on power-points and misuse and abuse them to their ends in buzzword hurricanes.

Basically go with my first post this morning, it is how it all links back to the current war.

 

I'm just taking the pss, of course.

No, the most useful definition of (business) strategy I ever saw was that strategy is how you decide what kinds of great ideas you are NOT going to dissipate your time and treasure chasing.

AKA, process of elimination. Which carries its own risks of course, including

1. assuming perfect info (falsely) and then letting 'perfect be the enemy of good'.

2. herd behaviour, and thus too much money chasing a few obvious 'low hanging fruits'.

Don't know how that flanges up though with your prior re Russian options overtaken by events and dwindling to dumb and dumber.

...Also, I personally liked your 'Teeth 'n T&ts' diagrams from CMCW.

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

For you, Vlad. I know your German is excellent.

[kraze]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

Hmm…

 

That's nothing. There were several zinc coffins thrown into garbage dumps. They have no value of their own in life, why would they value them in death.

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ya, this is the point where most decide to tap out on these sorts of concept discussions.  There are very few, even in the business, who like to get down into the deep end here.  One starts to question one’s perception of reality after awhile.  And then the “suits” steal it, slap it on power-points and misuse and abuse them to their ends in buzzword hurricanes.

Basically go with my first post this morning, it is how it all links back to the current war.

 

One of the reasons (besides absolutely refusing to do it) that I didn't progress up the management chain at "The Firm" (yes they do talk like that) was my unwillingness to learn the MCK way of PowerPoint.  You must always have 3 bullet point options... so I asked, what if you are discussing an on/off switch?  That earned me a very sour look.

Then I put this up in my workspace.

[asurob]

38 minutes ago, alison said:

 

Anyway, back to my lurking hole, and thanks again for the fantastic thread.

Absolute fascinating read...I hope you stick around man!

[riptides]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

One of the reasons (besides absolutely refusing to do it) that I didn't progress up the management chain at "The Firm" (yes they do talk like that) was my unwillingness to learn the MCK way of PowerPoint.  You must always have 3 bullet point options... so I asked, what if you are discussing an on/off switch?  That earned me a very sour look.

Then I put this up in my workspace.

"When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"

- General Stanley McChrystal

 

[akd]

Looks like Ukraine is pretty rapidly rolling up the west side of the Siversky Donets toward the Russian border:

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by akd

[MSBoxer]

If this is true, I need to buy these hackers some drinks!

 

[dan/california]

28 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like Ukraine is pretty rapidly rolling up the west side of the Siverskyi Donets toward the Russian border:

 

The Ukrainians really are impinging on the GLOC s for the entire Northern Donbas. One more push like that one and they won't be impinging, they will be &$$&*&* all over them. Fingers crossed the map is accurate, and Ukr momentum holds up.

I did say at some point in the last few days the the less the Ukr General Staff is talking, the better they are doing...

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Ukrainians really are impinging on the GLOC s for the entire Northern Donbas. One more push like that one and they won't be impinging, they will be &$$&*&* all over them. Fingers crossed the map is accurate, and Ukr momentum holds up.

I did say at some point in the last few days the the less the Ukr General Staff is talking, the better they are doing...

All I want for Christmas are Putin's two frontteeth...

[womble]

32 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

If this is true, I need to buy these hackers some drinks!

 

The beeb reported this, so it might not be just rumour.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, riptides said:

"When we understand that slide, we'll have won the war"

- General Stanley McChrystal

 

Or we can play whack-a-mole until we tire out and go home in 2021.

This slide is actually the tip of an iceberg.  Our primary issue is that it is not accurate, it is that we do not have the processing power to actually employ it dynamically.  Many of those linkages are non-linear feedback loops and we do not have the math to model them accurately.  This is akin to "solving-for-economy" and has broken bigger and better models.

Makes the good old days when it was just all about killing look nostalgic...up until this war of course. 

Edited May 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Or we can play whack-a-mole until we tire out and go home in 2020.

This slide is actually the tip of an iceberg.  Our primary issue is that it is not accurate, it is that we do not have the processing power to actually employ it dynamically.  Many of those linkages are non-linear feedback loops and we do not have the math to model them accurately.  This is akin to "solving-for-economy" and has broken bigger and better models.

Makes the good old days when it was just all about killing look nostalgic...up until this war of course. 

It is one of a large number of attempts to obfuscate the simple math. It takes x number of soldiers per y number of population to run an effective counter insurgency campaign. We have wasted twenty years trying to run counter insurgency campaigns with 1/10x soldiers, plus handwavium. Results have been poor. Ukraine is a straight up shooting war, and the side the west is supporting has adequate numbers, unity of command, and real enthusiasm, so it is going rather better.

[Kinophile]

 

Bitterly funny.

[BeondTheGrave]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

any of those linkages are non-linear feedback loops and we do not have the math to model them accurately.  This is akin to "solving-for-economy" and has broken bigger and better models.

I maintain very fiercely that one cannot use math to describe human behavior, which is illogical and anarchic in even regimented institutions. And so the push to 'model all the things' ultimately leads to an intellectual dead end and the wrong kind of solutions. Math, data, modeling is good for examining how to make small changes to systems (what weapons should we send to Ukraine, what will produce the most effect in the shortest time). But it cannot lead in a strategic sense (how does Ukraine protect its independence) because you cant properly factor every variable. Take Afghanistan. You can do all the wonderful calculations you want about how to win the war. Except what does winning look like? How do you even describe the word? Is it democracy? If so what kind, one led by elites in Kabul or one that works for every community at the expense of the center? One that we can control or one that may make its own choices? Or is just killing the Taliban and keeping China and Russia out? All of this reflects the uncertainty, variability, and contingency of our own thinking but the same is also true of the other side, who always gets a vote and is constantly reevaluating their vote. You can count things, bodycount, ammunition expenditure, relative strengths. But ultimately even Clausewitz himself dismisses this mathematical approach to war. Because at its heart the Soviets were wrong and the Germans were right: war is an art first, not a science first. Math and numbers sing you a siren's song of certainty, but war is uncertain because humans are in turn noble, courageous, inventive, stupid, cowardly, and lazy. And so the whole affair is more like a sports match or a game of poker than it is like running a Walmart or manipulating the stock market. 

All this is to say that this line of thinking, at least in the US, predates powerpoint and really goes back to the 60s. But I find its durability in the defense system quite disheartening. There is the constant pressure to manage war and the DoD like a business, when really it should be run like a military (duh!) But making change is next to impossible thanks to a whole host of factors not worth digging into. 

[The_Capt]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is one of a large number of attempts to obfuscate the simple math. It takes x number of soldiers per y number of population to run an effective counter insurgency campaign.

Does it now?  I would love to hear what those x and y's are, and I am sure glad someone has got them all figured out.  Before my present gig, I got pretty deep into COIN - was kinda a thing back in the day - and no such metric exist.  Why...and we are back to non-linear.  For example, we had no idea what the general insurrection point in Afghanistan was but the Soviets had already proven that too many "x's" and "the women come out to cut up your remains", too few and the TB has all sorts of freedom.  So what?  It is not about troop ratios or "boots on sand" it is about local buy-in.  But hey I like your plan better, lets do simple math and feel better.  

As to this war, no I am sorry but the math is not simple.  I think we will be unpacking those numbers for the next 20 years trying to figure out what happened 

Edited May 9, 2022 by The_Capt

[sburke]

6 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Errrm, what?

 

Surely totally unrelated to his recent demise...

Lukoil, a Russian Oil Company, Calls for an End to the Ukraine War - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

another oligarch to add to the list.

[Huba]

The Canadian Volunteer wrote a very suspicious story a few days ago that involved bikes, after which many people, including me, started to question his authenticity. I still have doubts about him, but this one part sems to check out O_o

 

[Cederic]

15 hours ago, Machor said:

Ukrainians use captured T-72B3 to tow T-80B which they have just captured:

 

This is frankly a worrying development. Are Ukraine running out of tractors?

All this artillery and talk of ATGMs and SAMs and not a single NATO power's done a thing to replenish supplies of the real strategic game changer :(

 

However, speaking of equipment shortages.. no commentary here about the massive lack of smoke from Russian tanks. Even in Syria, they take incoming fire, they immediately pop smoke; in Ukraine? None. Not a single video.

I appreciate a lot of tanks are being destroyed by the opening missile of an ambush and smoke has limited effectiveness against artillery but isn't smoke a core part of Russian tank defensive doctrine?

Did someone forget to order supplies?