How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Gary R Lukas]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

The West didn't side with USSR because Nazi Germany was a greater threat to the world, but because it was greater threat right there and then and when USSR also got into the fight against Germans - supporting it would've been the only logical step to take. Because, remember, USSR started World War 2 together with Germany as allies. Nobody forgot that for a second, hence "Operation Unthinkable".

The only reason the other half of Europe hasn't witnessed how much of genocidal maniacs Russians can be is because USA got nukes and everybody jumped under the umbrella - and even that didn't stop USSR from bringing death and misery to the world for the next 45 years. Name literally any genocidal regime after 1945 - and you can be damn sure USSR was, if not balls deep in it, then actively pouring stuff into it.

And, oh boy, if we are to talk deathcounts... In Ukraine alone Russia has murdered about as many Ukrainians as NG killed Jews. Russia killed millions in other countries it occupied, but Ukraine had it worse because it was the most populous of them and also because Russians just have that genocidal boner about us they can't seem to ever tame.

USSR and Nazi Germany are one and the same. Some just had to deal with it for 70 years instead of 7. And then USSR just called itself "Federation" instead of "Union".

I've been trying to say this to people for a long time and some just don't get it, I'm glad I saw this here Thanx

[ASL Veteran]

1 hour ago, asurob said:

An extreme data point is just that.  Extreme and you are smart enough to know that.  

I know a lot of things, but I wouldn't want anyone to question their beliefs.  Besides, this thread should be about Ukraine not the US and it's probably best to keep it that way.

[billbindc]

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/fueling-secession-promising-bitcoins-how-a-russian-operator-urged-catalonian-leaders-to-break-with-madrid

At this point, NATO is stacking up the reasons why a long proxy war with Russia is necessary. 

[danfrodo]

32 minutes ago, Fenris said:

John Rambo has been spotted in theatre

 

the branches don't stand a chance.  what horse--s--t.  he'll be looking pretty stupid pretty soon when he's actually facing UKR forces.

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

https://www.occrp.org/en/investigations/fueling-secession-promising-bitcoins-how-a-russian-operator-urged-catalonian-leaders-to-break-with-madrid

At this point, NATO is stacking up the reasons why a long proxy war with Russia is necessary. 

Seems like in a number of countries Putin is getting some payback.  He's been funding & inciting efforts to undermine political systems in every democracy available, and now those govt's have a way to punch back.  "how you like me now, Putin?"

[Fenris]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Seems like in a number of countries Putin is getting some payback.  He's been funding & inciting efforts to undermine political systems in every democracy available, and now those govt's have a way to punch back.  "how you like me now, Putin?"

 

I said to my wife a couple of weeks back that it's going to be interesting to see what happens once the funding to all the russian destabilising ops around the world starts drying up.

[DesertFox]

I admit, I have a sweet spot for dogs. Glad that this one named PATRON got what he deserved.

 

 

[billbindc]

The Russian ambassador's residence in DC tonight.

[Machor]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Dan provided a good answer already, but I'll put it to you this in a context that might help you understand...

Think about Quebec finally passing a referendum separating itself from Canada.  It is not ratified by the Canadian government and, therefore, not constitutionally legal.  Quebec doesn't see it that way and seizes all federal property within its borders for its own uses.  Soldiers that had sworn an oath to defend the Canadian constitution now swear to fight against Canada on behalf of an unrecognized Quebec nation.  They utilize the equipment, training, and doctrine developed and paid for by Canada in order to advance their separatist cause.  New soldiers raised might not have this history, but they were born citizens of Canada and as such are expected to follow its Constitution.  They attack into Ottawa with the intention of defeating the Canadian government and are eventually defeated. 

It would be difficult to describe this as anything other than treason.  It's what happened in the US so... treason is the best term for those Southerners who took up arms against the United States.  Terrorists is another term, but it doesn't exactly fit.

To tie this into Ukraine, those citizens of Ukraine who have switched sides to support Russia are traitors by any reasonable definition of the term.  It gets a bit murky with "collaborationist" who do not actively fight on behalf of Russia.  Some are otherwise good people who are focused on keeping themselves and/or their fellow citizens alive under very difficult circumstances.  Others are zealots, others still are looking to take advantage of the situation for their own benefit.  It's extremely messy to sort all this out.  Extremely.  But taking up arms against Ukraine or providing direct assistance that leads to the deaths of Ukrainians (civilians or military) is very easily sorted... traitor.

Steve

@dan/california

Thank you for taking the time to reply [out of likes again], and thank you, Steve, for the thoughtful Quebec analogy. I will not be posting anymore about this topic. I did find the following article helpful for further context, and it has an extremely long discussion below it that was active all the way until this March, where one can also see contrarian views:

"WHAT SHOULD WEST POINT DO ABOUT ITS ROBERT E. LEE PROBLEM?"

https://mwi.usma.edu/west-point-robert-e-lee-problem/

 

[Battlefront.com]

  

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder whether the final fall of Popasna matters all that much.

Nope, it doesn't matter much.  It would have if Russia took it 2 months ago.  But now?  Russia's forces are so worn down it's not like they can do much with it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Machor said:

@dan/california

Thank you for taking the time to reply [out of likes again], and thank you, Steve, for the thoughtful Quebec analogy. I will not be posting anymore about this topic. I did find the following article helpful for further context, and it has an extremely long discussion below it that was active all the way until this March, where one can also see contrarian views:

"WHAT SHOULD WEST POINT DO ABOUT ITS ROBERT E. LEE PROBLEM?"

https://mwi.usma.edu/west-point-robert-e-lee-problem/

 

I appreciate the response, but yeah... let's stop it here.  It's obviously rubbing some people the wrong way and we're here to talk about Ukraine and Russia.  There's a lot happening to pay attention to so best to get back to it.

Steve

[Machor]

Mother Ukraine received gifts today: More TB2s. 

They are welding shut manhole covers for communication cables in Bryansk - the replies mention the same was done in Oryol:

Child conscripts in Luhansk:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Meant to post this a few pages back when we were talking about some Russian economics stuff.  Article in Newsweek says the estimate is that Russia is losing $900 million a day directly related to the war (i.e. not economic losses).  Ouch.

They cited the loss of the Moskova at about $750m all on its own.  Ouch.

Business Insider cites The Institute for International Finance predicating Russia's GDP is going to take a 15% hit this year.  Ouch.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-spending-estimated-900-million-day-ukraine-war-1704383?utm_source=PushnamiMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=automatic&UTM=1651964122820&subscriberId=6148bf507aeb51cecbacf523

Steve

[OldSarge]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The Russian ambassador's residence in DC tonight.

Z for Zelensky! How thoughtful of them!

[Machor]

Ukrainian soldier drone-hunting with Lithuanian EDM4S Sky Wiper:

Ukrainians use captured T-72B3 to tow T-80B which they have just captured:

Ukrainians doing ballsy AT practice with captured BMP-3:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

17 minutes ago, Machor said:

Mother Ukraine received gifts today: More TB2s. 

They are welding shut manhole covers for communication cables in Bryansk - the replies mention the same was done in Oryol:

Child conscripts in Luhansk:

 

Interesting that TB2 delivery is going through Hungarian airspace.

From what I remember not that long ago Hungary said they would not allow any weapon shipments to go to Ukraine through its territory. Looks like that is changing.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Machor]

 

The lowest flying modern fixed-wing combat aircraft I have seen in action: Ukrainian Su-24:

All did not go well at the rehearsal for the Victory Parade in Vladivostok:

US support for Russia: 

 

[Suleyman]

As much as I’m on Ukraine’s side, I think taking Popasnaya is a big deal locally. I get the point that it’s too slow, but it seems like they want to keep a slow tempo because the fast breakthroughs around Kiev got stomped on and they took massive casualties. They’re still taking losses that make no sense, but good for the Ukrainians, they can still defeat them in the east.

I think they will launch offensives in the area this starting week. Probably the only Russian goal is major parts in East Ukraine they never planned on going passed it after they got humiliated around Kiev.

Plus with all the armor they’re losing I don’t think they wanna try to push in to the point where they got 0 tanks/AFVs left and it could happen they seem to be super reckless. Unless they deploy most of their manpower into Ukraine they wont get much farther anyways. 

 

[Machor]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Interesting that TB2 delivery is going through Hungarian airspace.

From what I remember not that long ago Hungary said they would not allow any weapon shipments to go to Ukraine through its territory. Looks like that is changing.

Previous flights were going through Hungarian airspace as well.

It isn't a TB2 delivery if you don't say that it is. 

AKA: 'Don't tell, don't ask.'

[Battlefront.com]

Ukrainian Mi-24 flying super low:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

It surely doesn't look like things are improving..

Some topics and comments are so heated up that I start to reminisce about John Kettler and his conspiracy-stories. Those were less fanatical than some of the things I read in this thread (multi-multi-multi-topic-thread?) lately.

I loved reading the amazing news-updates and the very interesting debates and analyses, but things seem to go a little haywire, I fear.

 

… Now, Andy did ya hear about this one?

Tell me, are ya locked in the punch?

Andy, are ya goofing on @BFCElvis (hey baby)

Are we losing touch?

If you belieeeve they put a man on the moon (man on the moon)....

But yeah, JK did have some entertainment value, in small doses. Perhaps there might be a general amnesty once the festivities wind down and we run out of better things to talk about.

Who knows, with malice towards none and charity for all, even 'Wrong Left Turn' Michael Dorosh could reappear among the living.

 

Edited May 9, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[sross112]

4 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

As much as I’m on Ukraine’s side, I think taking Popasnaya is a big deal locally. I get the point that it’s too slow, but it seems like they want to keep a slow tempo because the fast breakthroughs around Kiev got stomped on and they took massive casualties. They’re still taking losses that make no sense, but good for the Ukrainians, they can still defeat them in the east.

I think they will launch offensives in the area this starting week. Probably the only Russian goal is major parts in East Ukraine they never planned on going passed it after they got humiliated around Kiev.

Plus with all the armor they’re losing I don’t think they wanna try to push in to the point where they got 0 tanks/AFVs left and it could happen they seem to be super reckless. Unless they deploy most of their manpower into Ukraine they wont get much farther anyways. 

 

I think that if the UA is being honest and that it was a tactical withdrawal to a more favorable line of prepared positions it isn't a big deal. If it was a straight up breakthrough by the RA and they immediately started rolling up the flanks it would be a cause for concern but there hasn't been reports of that and the fire map shows very little going on in that area so I think it will be ok.

Watching the RA the past couple weeks I'm almost thinking there wasn't much of a plan for a big breakthrough and sweeping advance. Like you said, I think they learned that their command, logistics and ISR just wasn't up to that type of operation. It has looked more like very local operations with almost set piece assaults on small targets. They have been moderately successful with this approach in taking some ground. I also agree that I think they are only trying to clear the Donetsk and Luhansk regions at this point so they can hold their referendums and annex the territory. It is probably the only realistic tactical approach and operational goals that are available to them but I'm going to be surprised if they manage it as they are being bled pretty hard for the minimal gains. That on top of all the hemorrhaging they've already suffered isn't really sustainable for the RA. 

They probably have enough forces to clear Luhansk and Donetsk but by that I mean putting everything they have into it. Of course if they did that and covered everywhere else with whatever ragtag outfit they could scrape up I'm sure we'd see a Kharkiv type of area reclamation in all those other areas. So they could take those but lose everything else and then be weakened badly and ripe to be pushed back out. There just doesn't seem to be a true win available for the RA at this point so I reckon these small victories are very pyrrhic in nature and really don't seem to be critical or imminent threats to the overall defense. It is always possible that we will be surprised by something the RA pulls out of one of these but it doesn't look very probable.  

[sross112]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukrainian Mi-24 flying super low:

 

Over the last week there seems to be a pretty significant uptick in videos of UAF activity. Lots of low flying planes, helos and of course the strike on the island. Anyone have any idea what has changed that we are seeing a lot more in air on the Ukrainian side?

Edited May 9, 2022 by sross112

[MikeyD]

Quote

The lowest flying modern fixed-wing combat aircraft I have seen in action

I recall (many) years ago I was on a long motorcycle trip to northern Maine. I had stopped in the middle of nowhere mid-state, forests on either side, a logging road to my left. I heard the sound of a jet engine, I looked left just in time to see an F111 Aardvark at treetop level blast across the logging road.

Edited May 9, 2022 by MikeyD

[Battlefront.com]

I've seen at least two different reports of mobilization papers.  No overt signs that they are faked, so assuming they are real...

Two things will likely happen right away:

1. existing conscripts (i.e. not the ones just called up) will be put into the frontlines as replacements.  This provides about 113,000 equipped and basic trained soldiers into the battlefield
2. an unknown number of reservists will get their basic kit and head to the front probably without any refresher training.  There is likely going to be a large callup of officers as Russia has lost so many already.  I'd guess they'd call up about 100,000 in order to minimize disruption to the economy.  They can always call up more later on and rush them to the front.  But then again, Putin might follow the "go big or go home" philosophy and call up significantly more than that. 

What about personal equipment?

It should be presumed that Russia has enough personal kit (firearms + field gear) to equip about 226,000 men at a minimum.  I'm making this estimate based on Russia's annual conscription needs which, theoretically, have not been put into combat.  That means they have enough uniforms, boots, small arms, etc. for all the ready conscripts and about 100,000 reservists minimum (which might be another reason the number might not be higher).

What Russia can do beyond about 225,000 immediate replacements is totally unknown from what I can tell.  Meaning, nobody I've read has come up with a good number for what Russia has in stock for uniforms and weapons.  As I said earlier, judging by what they've done with DLPR forces since the war started seems to indicate they've been struggling to keep up with demand.

What about vehicles?

This is the one that experts have been focused on and it doesn't look good for Russia.

There are ample signs that Russia has found it difficult to find replacements for all of its losses.  What we don't know is how many vehicles are in the next tier of readiness (i.e. months to get operational).  It could be that they are sitting on quite a large number of vehicles that could theoretically come onto the battlefield in the next 1-3 months.  Or maybe not!

Even if Russia is able to field a whole bunch more vehicles, they will likely be older and lacking lots of updated equipment.  For sure they are not going to easily find replacements for the higher tech stuff such as EW, radar, Buk, and other systems.  I very much doubt they had those sorts of thing sitting around in ready reserve status.

Steve