How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

Nah, I checked with original Ukrainian report and it points to the same town, 50km north of Melitopol, around 20 south of the frontline.

Here:

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3516352,35.3218009,13579m/data=!3m1!1e3

But does it say they captured it, or that they just have a report from there? Captured is a big deal, a report is just the SBU doing its job.

Edit

Cross posted with Huba's answer...

Edited May 7, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

But does it say they captured it, or that they just have a report from there? Captured is a big deal, a report is just the SBU doing its job.

Nah, just that they are there, I edited my post. Nothing in the report about taking the village. I'm sure one of our Ukrainian members can confirm that?

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, womble said:

An MRSI mission is going to be the fastest mission for "that number of rounds", from first shell lofted to last, so will (if it's "enough") mean the time till you can scoot-after-shoot will be the least, which is a Good Thing in a hostile space...  I get the feeling that a system that's good at MRSI is going to be good at all the other agility factors, too. In, of course, the right hands.

Certainly, given the cooldown time after an MRSI mission, your PH-2000s won't be hanging around in their first firing positions waiting for the sclerotic Russian C3 loop to finish cycling and the CB incoming to start arriving.

As useful as the M777 is, I think there's a strong case to be made for the Canadian Army to also acquire some Panzerhaubitze 2000s...the parts commonality with the existing Leopard 2 fleet would also be an obvious advantage.

Someday...right now Ukraine needs them far more than we do.

[G.I. Joe]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

What a huge saturday in Ukraine!!!!!!!!   Looks like RU Izyum salient under heavy attack, at least by artillery, and quite possibly will be cut off if they don't retreat.   A post I saw elsewhere on May 5 suggested that that was day that we'd look back on as the day the war entered a new phase of Ukrainian victories.  That fella might  be right.

I wonder how much of the current Izyum work is being done w the new western artillery, plus perhaps russian-style ammo stocks supplied by Poland, et al. 

Meanwhile, there's indications that Putler now is moving forces to try to get offensive going farther south, Popasne area.  He just keeps doubling down on his bad bets, w each bet having lower and lower objectives.  Pretty soon he'll be like hitler asking whether some specific building in stalingrad has been taken yet.  Just thinking of that murderous, monstrous killer clown Putin sweating and panicking over some map brings me joy.  He is well and truly f--ed in this war and has swarms of powerful Russian men that want him dead.  And he did it all by choice!  well done, 'genius'!

Out of likes, though many of you who've posted were deserving.

 

 

+1 (also out of likes)

Here's hoping they were right!

[FancyCat]

Anything 155mm is useful, even if old as **** I would venture to say. Who knows if there's any 152mm ammo laying around in a friendly or neutral country to be purchased anymore at this point.

[Zeleban]

52 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Но там сказано, что они его захватили, или что у них просто есть репортаж оттуда? Поймать - это большое дело, рапорт - это просто СБУ делает свою работу.

Редактировать

Крест отправлен с ответом Хубы ...

Unfortunately, this is just a report. Burchak is still under Russian control

[dan/california]

100% guessing, but I think the Poles gave the Ukrainians some SIGNIFICANT AA assets, and the Ukrainian offensive kicked off the minute that and enough NATO 155 were in place.

[sross112]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

But will 12 PH 2000 (7 from Germany, 5 from the Netherlands) really make that much of a difference. I know they represent tremendous firepower (20 rounds in 2,5 minutes), but not nearly enough to surpress the might of the Russian artillery. On the other hand 240 rounds in 2,5 minutes in a counter battery operation will certainly do some damage.

There are also 20 AS-90's and 12 Caesar's headed that way from the UK and France. So that should be 15ish batteries of really capable SP arty. These two are both said to fire at 6 rounds a minute so that is pretty respectable but not quite as fast as the Pz2000. @Taranis might be able to give some insight into the MRSI capability of such a system.

Overall numbers comparison it isn't much compared to the RA, but they should definitely be a pretty good force multiplier if used as intended to kill RA arty and command. I have no reason to doubt that the UA will impress us with their integration and use. I sure hope we get to see footage of a battery or two of Pz2000's MRSI on an arty/command/supply position.

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, womble said:

An MRSI mission is going to be the fastest mission for "that number of rounds", from first shell lofted to last, so will (if it's "enough") mean the time till you can scoot-after-shoot will be the least, which is a Good Thing in a hostile space...  I get the feeling that a system that's good at MRSI is going to be good at all the other agility factors, too. In, of course, the right hands.

Certainly, given the cooldown time after an MRSI mission, your PH-2000s won't be hanging around in their first firing positions waiting for the sclerotic Russian C3 loop to finish cycling and the CB incoming to start arriving.

One of the strongpoints of the PH 2000 is that it can stop, take position and fire within minutes and change position again. Apart from that it's well armored. Practically untouchable for counter fire. 

[danfrodo]

I bet the new UA artillery's first job is to destroy RU artillery.  That's what I'd do.  Arty is the only part of the RU military that is really working.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I bet the new UA artillery's first job is to destroy RU artillery.  That's what I'd do.  Arty is the only part of the RU military that is really working.

Well, the PH 2000 also can outrange most other guns, so that indeed sounds like a plan, Dan. Don't know about the other guns, but no doubt they will also be top notch. Imagine all those beautiful incoming grenades upon those Russian artillery positions. Sweet revenge.

Edited May 7, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[SteelRain]

Short Video from PzH 2000 testing by the Bundeswehr in 1997.

I don't think such a rate of fire would be sustainable, but if some of the high ranking officers show up for a meeting once again, I would invest one barrel to get them out of the theatre.

Edited May 7, 2022 by SteelRain

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

I'm sure one of our Ukrainian members can confirm that?

Yes, this was translation issue. It meant "got information about 100 wounded in this village"

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

Short Video from PzH 2000 testing by the Bundeswehr in 1997.

I don't think such a rate of fire would be sustainable, but if some of the high ranking officers show up for a meeting once again, I would invest one barrel to get them out of the theatre.

Very impressive. And with the accuracy of the PH 2000 you won't need more than a couple of minutes.

[Taranis]

25 minutes ago, sross112 said:

There are also 20 AS-90's and 12 Caesar's headed that way from the UK and France. So that should be 15ish batteries of really capable SP arty. These two are both said to fire at 6 rounds a minute so that is pretty respectable but not quite as fast as the Pz2000. @Taranis might be able to give some insight into the MRSI capability of such a system.

Overall numbers comparison it isn't much compared to the RA, but they should definitely be a pretty good force multiplier if used as intended to kill RA arty and command. I have no reason to doubt that the UA will impress us with their integration and use. I sure hope we get to see footage of a battery or two of Pz2000's MRSI on an arty/command/supply position.

Sorry mate, unfortunately I only have very very vague memories of any MRSI. And even less on the theoretical capabilities of the CAESAR. I may have carried out a shooting in training (therefore not in operational shooting) of this type but in my opinion it did not mark me. It's more something at the command level of the platoon or the battery. IMHO, it's mainly useful when you have few guns and complicates the job when shooting from more than two angles. At my level it was not visible, we were given angles and directions of shots and that's it. These are vehicles that are supposed to be accurate at long range (little ammunition used theoretically) and therefore with a platoon (a platoon in french artillery designation is 3-4x guns contrary of our 4x guns batteries' in CMBS) and the rather high rate of fire of a CAESAR, I don't think it's necessary. I have more recollection of the use of positioning fire on a deported zone then a shift of the fire directly on the target. Afterwards, perhaps the tactics have evolved a lot in recent years.
I'd probably be wrong but I think this is more of a theoretical gun capability than a really, commonly used tactic (again IMHO). Time On Target is probably easier with multiple guns. Time On Target is probably easier with multiple guns for having (IMHO) something near the same result. (yes you need more guns)

[Huba]

43 minutes ago, dan/california said:

100% guessing, but I think the Poles gave the Ukrainians some SIGNIFICANT AA assets, and the Ukrainian offensive kicked off the minute that and enough NATO 155 were in place.

We don't have any AA to speak of compared to Ukraine's Here are some other options:

- PT-91s

- MiGs

- NSM battery

- Spikes

- some Krabs ( Polish AS90 version) 

- more 152,Grad or other ammo

- maybe initial F16 training? 

Edited May 7, 2022 by Huba

[akd]

Organization and vehicle roster and partial personnel roster (personnel assigned to vehicles, I think) for the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade in Crimea (now on Kherson front holding right bank of the Dnipro):

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by akd

[dan/california]

Trent perhaps having a moment of insight or good information here. 

[Kinophile]

17 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, the PH 2000 also can outrange most other guns, so that indeed sounds like a plan, Dan. Don't know about the other guns, but no doubt they will also be top notch. Imagine all those beautiful incoming grenades upon those Russian artillery positions. Sweet revenge.

It would make sense to use the limited PzHs for destroying Rus artillery c&c, and organic battalion ISR rather grinding through all the individual batteries, as.well as opportunity decaps on mech brigade/div level c2.

But yah, equalising the artillery playing field is vital.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

Short Video from PzH 2000 testing by the Bundeswehr in 1997.

I don't think such a rate of fire would be sustainable, but if some of the high ranking officers show up for a meeting once again, I would invest one barrel to get them out of the theatre.

Well, if you were wondering what happened to the band Scorpions, I think the second half of the video shows where at least one member went to!

Steve

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

It would make sense to use the limited PzHs for destroying Rus artillery c&c, and organic battalion ISR rather grinding through all the individual batteries, as.well as opportunity decaps on mech brigade/div level c2.

But yah, equalising the artillery playing field is vital.

Pzh2000, CAESARs andnother L52 guns are also a much better Excalibur launchers, giving 50+ km range. 

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1523025055273619456/photo/1

 

[Taranis]

Just now, Huba said:

Pzh2000, CAESARs andnother L52 guns are also a much better Excalibur launchers, giving 50+ km range. 

Yes, I think it's really what will make the difference. Hurting russian guns from safety and hitting hard their logistics hubs !

For the russians : "Das dicke Ende kommt noch" as 1SSF said

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Trent perhaps having a moment of insight or good information here. 

Although that Rob Lee video is from March 10^th so ancient history but perhaps the drone aspect is still relavent.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1523025055273619456/photo/1

 

well they could point to Kaliningrad and say "Mission Accomplished!!"