How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

What I wonder is what happens when Ukrainian forces reach Russian border? Do Ukrainians continue to advance, at least untill a favorable positions are reached? Do Russians move freely on their side and counterattack at will wherever they want? 

We already have example of Sumy and Chernihiv oblast. Our troops dug in near border line. Russians sometimes conducted demonstrative actions, sometimes shelled border villages and our positions with mortars. There was two shells with Grads (but less 10 rockets both time) and one time shelling from helicopter.

I don't know either our troops open fire through the border or not. Several times local authorities of Bryansk oblast blamed Ukraine in shelling of border villages, so probably we also respond on the shelling, but without official statements

Edited May 6, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Just now, Vacillator said:

This has already happened in some sectors before hasn't it?  I wondered the same, assume it's 'stop at the border' but if someone is firing at you...

 

Just now, Haiduk said:

We already have example of Sumy and Chernihiv oblast. Our troops dug in near border line. Russians sometimes conducted demonstrative actions, sometimes shelled border villages and our positions with mortars. There was two shells with Grads (but less 10 rockets both time) and one time shelling from helicopter.

I know, but the previous case seems a bit different, as it wasn't like actual frontline was moved to (and through?) the border. I wonder if upon reaching the border around Kharkhiv, will Ukrainians just entrench on the spot and let Russians counterattack at will? 
My point is that if Russians will want to contest UA positions, they have complete freedom of movement on their side, without risk of losing ground - seems like crappy situation for UA.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, BornGinger said:

The exact same procedure that some criminals use in their racketeering to be employed as the "security" for pubs in UK, and other countries, so they can use those pubs as the base for their drug dealing.

Russia is literally the brothers Dinsdale.

 

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

My point is that if Russians will want to contest UA positions, they have complete freedom of movement on their side, without risk of losing ground - seems like crappy situation for UA.

One of the problems of a 'special military operation' perhaps.  On the plus side if they have a chance they can dig in again and get some of that artillery set up.

[FancyCat]

It's astounding how much they treat their personnel like crap. Imagine how bad morale might be on the rest of the Black Sea Fleet, knowing even if you die, the money that can never replace your loss to your loved ones won't show up.

 

[Huba]

12 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

One of the problems of a 'special military operation' perhaps.  On the plus side if they have a chance they can dig in again and get some of that artillery set up.

Depending on what Putin says on Monday, that equation might suddenly stop being relevant. From a purely military POV, moving the lines closer to Belgorod might be useful I think, both to put pressure on RU, and to gain ground to give back in case of counterattack?

Edited May 6, 2022 by Huba

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Depending on what Putin says on Monday, that equation might suddenly stop being relevant. From a purely military POV, moving the lines closer to Belgorod might be useful I think, both to put pressure on RU, and to gain ground to give back in case of counterattack?

Maybe Putin's cunning plan was to reunite Russian empire, but with the capital in Kyiv?

[BlackMoria]

Some of the conversation over the few pages have referenced the former Yugoslavia.  Which brings back... well, not so good memories.

I was a Canadian peacekeeper in Bosnia in latter half of '93.   During the Croatian offensive in the Medak in Sept of '93, I was with the 2 PPCLI when we went into the sh*tstorm to try to stop the ethnic cleansing going on.  The Croatian army attacked our unit during that operation, a thing that the Croatian government denies to this very day.  Despite us photographing the Croatian dead after the battle and collecting their ID, etc.    We had god damn evidence and to this day, the Croatian government position is that they never attacked us.

Part of our job, beside trying to keep the warring factions apart, was to document evidence of ethnic cleansing and I was in charge (I was an officer) of a evidence collection team.  So, literally thousands of photos, videos.  Transcripts of interviews with witnesses and victims.  Six months exposed to that living hell, day after f*n day....

So I had the evidence, because sometimes our official recording devices ran out film or tape and we used our personal recording devices to finish up at a site.

After I got out the military, I found myself sometimes on various military forms about games, such as this one.  Arma forums, military wargame forums... that sort of thing.  And as it happened, I ran into forum members from Croatia and Bosnia Serbs and we would get into it.

Universally, every Croatian or Bosnian Serb forum poster denied what happened there.  And I was called a liar on many occasions for telling them them the truth of that war as I was there and they weren't.  And I have evidence to back up my claims.  No one believed me and if I offered visual proof, they didn't want to see it or they disclaimed it as fake.

I remember a particular Bosnian Serb who was not in the war but we got deep into the weeds discussing what happened during that war.  Deny, deny, deny.  It never happened.  Until videos that the Bosnian Serbs took of them killing civilians and dumping them in mass graves what was recorded by the very soldiers who committed the atrocities surfaced and made it onto their local media and they couldn't deny it any longer.  Those videos were part of the process besides sanctions that resulted in some notable Bosnia Serb / Serbian leaders being turned over to the ICC for prosecution for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.  After the revelation came out, this individual on that forum who I had spent hours engaging with about the culpability of Serbs in the atrocities simply ignored me from that point onwards.  I will never know why.... was it that he discovered that I was right all a long and he was wrong and he was ashamed (as he would have been) or he simply wanted to hang onto his delusion of what narrative he wanted to believe was true and he knew that I would keep chipping away.   

Denial is a powerful thing.   I don't understand why it has such power but it does.  People can dismiss an outright objective reality because to accept the truth is to undermine what they think reality is or should be.   I don't get it and is beyond madding to see the denials in the face of objective reality happen over and over.

Sigh.   I don't know why the hell I rambled on with this.  Maybe it was a story I need to tell to remain sane in light of the same brutality I witnessed back in Bosnia happening in Ukraine now.  Or maybe I still am the greater fool for believing my experiences in Bosnia can be an object lesson to others about holding onto a narrative that is personally comfortable but runs counter to all the real evidence to the contrary.   DMS, I am looking at you....

The truth will come out after all this is over.  At least, I hope it does.  The truth of this war needs to be told and codified so generations that follow can know what really happend.

Now at the end of this and reviewing it, I feel that I should have deleted this or apologize for it.  

I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.   

 

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.   

 

 

Man, I don't even know what to say.  Sorry you had to go through that.  I expect not too dissimilar to what the allied troops experienced when coming upon the first concentration camps.  Thank you for sharing though.  It frequently helps to put the whole conversation in perspective and beyond the realm of just a theoretical discussion.

and if it helps to talk about it here I don't think you'll find a single exception.

Edited May 6, 2022 by sburke

[Fernando]

21 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Denial is a powerful thing.   I don't understand why it has such power but it does.  People can dismiss an outright objective reality because to accept the truth is to undermine what they think reality is or should be.   I don't get it and is beyond madding to see the denials in the face of objective reality happen over and over.

It is called "Cognitive dissonance". It is really common and explains that denial.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

Edited May 6, 2022 by Fernando

[DesertFox]

15 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

The truth will come out after all this is over.  At least, I hope it does.  The truth of this war needs to be told and codified so generations that follow can know what really happend.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and writing that piece. Truth will prevail. Don´t worry. Those responsible will pay their price. Sooner or later they´ll pay.

[Probus]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

Soon NATOs agressive and hostile expansion policy soley aimed at destruction of Russian poverty state will continue as the West finally coups Finland and Sweden and forces them to join NATO despite their populations desire to forever live in glorious democracy called Russia.

Maybe Russias peaceful proclamation of Nuclear Holocaust retaliation will open those corrupt polititians eyes as to who the real threat is.. NATO!

Good one Kraft!

[Gpig]

14 minutes ago, Fernando said:

It is called "Cognitive dissonance". It is really common and explains that denial.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

The antidote to Cognitive Dissonance (it would seem to me), is having some humility and introspection. The ability to say, "hmmm, how did I screw up, here?"  And, "I screwed up."

Seems to be lacking in a lot of people on this planet.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Gpig

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, DMS said:

Putin said that he asked Clinton in 2000, but he reacted "coldly". 

Not quite what happened. There was a cold reception to how Putin insisted that Russia be considered by NATO. Preference, invited, no application process, not "standing in line" with any other countries. 

Dave

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Ultradave said:

Not quite what happened. There was a cold reception to how Putin insisted that Russia be considered by NATO. Preference, invited, no application process, not "standing in line" with any other countries. 

Dave

This is the whole problem with Russia(ns) - it perceives itself as something inherently superior to other countries, and not being treated as such as dishonor or even plain attack on itself. You can't have friendly relations with somobody with that attitude.

[akd]

And I’ll never get tired of these videos.

Also, this is amazing:

 

[OldSarge]

39 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Sigh.   I don't know why the hell I rambled on with this.  Maybe it was a story I need to tell to remain sane in light of the same brutality I witnessed back in Bosnia happening in Ukraine now.  Or maybe I still am the greater fool for believing my experiences in Bosnia can be an object lesson to others about holding onto a narrative that is personally comfortable but runs counter to all the real evidence to the contrary.   DMS, I am looking at you....

The truth will come out after all this is over.  At least, I hope it does.  The truth of this war needs to be told and codified so generations that follow can know what really happend.

Now at the end of this and reviewing it, I feel that I should have deleted this or apologize for it.  

I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.  

Thank you for posting about your experience! The people who need to hear your account may not be listening, and probably never will,  but the rest of us are listening and watching and the facts will prevail.

[Cederic]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

There was an important British Study in WW1 that concluded, from memory, that ~50 days in the trenches is as long as a unit can remain combat effective. The stress just literally becomes unbearable after that. These guys have been pushed to that limit, The good news is that the Ukr had the resources to rotate them out, finally. 

They tried to keep time in the trenches measured in days, not even weeks - https://www.longlongtrail.co.uk/soldiers/a-soldiers-life-1914-1918/life-in-the-trenches-of-the-first-world-war/ suggests only 4 days in a 12 day rotation, which broadly corresponds to another source I've read.

I think those learnings remain very applicable to the Ukrainian forces that have been under constant artillery barrage and threat of assault (not to mention actual attacks) for literally weeks. Rotating them out much earlier would've been far better, had that been an option.

 

 

[Cederic]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Was less funny for people in US who actually live in an evidence based reality.  Not funny at all. 

Agreed, the constant propaganda, misreporting and outright lies in the media destabilised the whole country and led to the current weak US leadership that emboldened the attack on Ukraine.

It's less about how Russia felt about being constantly blamed for things like the Clinton campaign manufactured collusion hoax (now being prosecuted by Special Counsel Durham) and Hunter Biden's laptop (now admitted by the NY times to be real) and more about the damage to social cohesion in the US that led to someone in the White House that Putin has no reason to even try and respect.

[Cederic]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Also, this is amazing:

 

No. That is a disgrace.

I've been to that war memorial - back when it was in East Berlin, and since reunification. I've also lived by a German war cemetery on the Siegfried Line, seen countless British war cemeteries, visited Verdun and seen war memorials from all sides from literally dozens of wars on several continents.

Do not ****ing disrespect war memorials.

[Gpig]

It's a joke. Special effects. They didn't actually pull those tanks off the memorial. 

[LukeFF]

3 minutes ago, Cederic said:

No. That is a disgrace.

I've been to that war memorial - back when it was in East Berlin, and since reunification. I've also lived by a German war cemetery on the Siegfried Line, seen countless British war cemeteries, visited Verdun and seen war memorials from all sides from literally dozens of wars on several continents.

Do not ****ing disrespect war memorials.

Pfft, whatever. It's a monument to one of the most genocidal regimes the world has seen. The sooner it's torn down the better. 

[sross112]

4 hours ago, panzermartin said:

Because I found this a bit strange: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

 

If Putin actually did ask to join NATO I'm sure there was a fairly cool response to the request, so it all seems probable. Now Putin actually asking really does make sense looking back now. It wouldn't have been an attempt for Russia to cozy up and move closer to the west, it would have been an attempt at subversion. Afterall, if one NATO country attacks another there is no article 5 response, right? So if Russia had been let into NATO it would have pretty much made it null and void as an organization as Russia could have attacked anyone it wanted and not feared NATO retribution. Maybe I'm being really cynical in my evaluation of Putin and Russia but it actually makes sense that he asked and hoped to be accepted as it would have made the advance of his goals possible and at the same time took the main opposition to those goals off the table.

3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Im my mind it was above all the political chaos in the US that made Putin believe he could get away with attacking Ukraine. The EU has never been more than an indecisive bunch of sheeps, without a shepherd to lead them. I don't think Putin expected such a strong reaction from both the US and the EU. Which brings me back to my initial question. Why didn't Putin invade Ukraine while that bleached idiot was still in the white house?

 

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I can imagine that, Dan. Putin really missed a golden opportunity.

Come up for air. Instead of playing politics here in a thread that does a pretty good job of not going down that rabbit hole, why not look at the past 15 years or so at the politics of the west in general and ok, the US in particular. Leaving Iraq to Isis. Minimal and non-military response to Crimea. Tepid support of Arab Spring. Benghazi. Half hearted Syria mish mash while bowing out to Russia in the middle east. Then top it all off with the Afghanistan fiasco and it is pretty easy to form the opinion that US resolve is weak and their response will be half a**ed. This is an apolitical look as these things happened under both party's control. If we want to cherry pick events we can find more under democrat control than republican, but that isn't the point. It is the consistently weak position that the US has given itself, and the west, for the last couple decades.

Now tie that into the domestic political mess that is seen in the west. When looked at through Russian or Asian eyes our domestic strife is laughable, and it is. There is a lot of turmoil about virtually non-existent problems inside the US and other western countries that has fractured their appearance of strength to the rest of the world. (pulls out the tinfoil hat) Makes one wonder with some of the new found evidence of Russia meddling in foreign politics how much of a catalyst they have been in a lot of the movements we've seen, especially the Marxist based ones. (takes off tinfoil hat)

So when looked at as a whole and not as a politically biased perception, when was there ever a better time to invade? Truthfully it was probably a flip of the coin how the US and west would react and if Ukraine would have folded in 3 days like a lot of the western leaders and pundits assumed, I think it would have folded. Maybe another sanction or two and moved on with life. That was what Putin was counting on. He knew there would be a cost but that is why they amassed a large war chest to cover the cost in the short term until the sanctions fell off. I really don't think the reaction from the west would have been any different under either party, what changed the reaction was that Ukraine didn't fold and the popular support for their cause amongst the free peoples blossomed. 

So please, no matter what your opinion of the current a**hat or the former a**hat, leave the a**hattery to the politicians or at least the political threads. I'll do my best to do the same.  

 

[FancyCat]

47 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Agreed, the constant propaganda, misreporting and outright lies in the media destabilised the whole country and led to the current weak US leadership that emboldened the attack on Ukraine.

It's less about how Russia felt about being constantly blamed for things like the Clinton campaign manufactured collusion hoax (now being prosecuted by Special Counsel Durham) and Hunter Biden's laptop (now admitted by the NY times to be real) and more about the damage to social cohesion in the US that led to someone in the White House that Putin has no reason to even try and respect.

Come now, I hate to wade into this, but Trump literally requested Zelensky to give him political dirt or threatened future cooperation with the United States, he stated many times NATO isn't useful and the U.S should withdraw from NATO.

I strongly fail to see how Putin would react to Trump vs Biden concerning Ukraine in any difference concerning the recent invasion.

Are you saying Putin would have been warned away from invading Ukraine? By what, pray tell would have Trump done differently than Biden?

 

Anyway, I'm sure Imperial Russia looks great to Russia but to Ukrainians, maybe not?

 

[Ultradave]

My take on why Putin waited is that maybe he wasn't quite ready, but thought he had lots of time, because Trump was undermining NATO unity, restricted aid to Ukraine, had aid to Ukraine stripped from the party platform, and Putin assumed Trump would be reelected so there was time.

Once that didn't happen, every day that passed made Ukraine more capable, and Biden repairing NATO links. Time suddenly was not on his side.

My take anyway, FWIW. Could be simpler. He just got a wild hair one day and told them to attack.

Dave