How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Yesterday 72nd mech.brigade made a statemant they liberated one village and showed captured Russians

.Today General Staff reported UKR troops liberated Kutuzivka village, Kharkiv oblast, mayby this was about it. 

Citizens of Kharkiv write they are hearing intensive fight on the north, Russian telegram channels write UKR troops try to retake Rus'ka Lozova village (about 5000 of population).

Also there is information the Chief of General Staff army general Valeriy Gerasimov arrived personally to Izium area to command offensive operation. Our soldiers writes they hear in radio interceptions Russian officers will gather and rise in atatck all even under threat of shooting to maintain decisive breakthrough in nearest days.  

I suspect Gerasimov was told to get his rear end to the front, and produce a breakthrough or die trying. Here is hoping that we get indisputable evidence of the new U.S. MLRS system in his funeral announcement. 

Edited April 28, 2022 by dan/california

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

I suspect Gerasimov was told to get his rear end to the front, and produce a breakthrough or die trying. Here is hoping that we get indisputable evidence of the new U.S. MLRS system in his funeral announcement. 

I'm fairly sure that Gerasimov's previous performance is being argued as a reason not to single him out for special treatment.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm fairly sure that Gerasimov's previous performance is being argued as a reason not to single him out for special treatment.

You have a point, someone who is merely incompetent might get the job. The Russian performance would improve vastly if so. Except Putin can't appoint someone competent to that job, because their first act would be to shoot Putin and make themselves Czar. They could and would truthfully state it was for the good of the Russian people. It would no doubt be rather nice for the new Czar, too, but I digress.

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

@Haiduk, too many dead officers on necromancer today. Help!

@sburke @Kinophile

Only three apropriate by the rank ) 

 

Mayor Nikolay Kolesnikov, unit unknown, signs on the shoulder strips similar to ground forces (except tank trops)

Mayor Vasiliy Tynnyi, deputy of company comamnder of Spetsnaz. unit unknown

 

Lt.colonel Eduard Dmitriev, senior officer of combat training department of 2nd guard CAA, Central military district, killed 24th of April.

Interesting person. He already participated in the war on Donbas during 2016-2019 probably as a shadow comamnder and even was wounded in 2019. Then participated in Syria operation. 

 

[Combatintman]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Sounds like committing the reserve, if they had 22 BTGs up there, this would be last 4.  Or they have already chewed through this and this is coming from higher.

There was some talk of another 3-5 rocking up near Izyum a few days back.  Of course we have batted the figures around a bit and I said then that it was not clear what the oft batted around number of '22 x BTGs in the Izyum area' actually meant.  The salient extending south from Izyum I seem to recall I assessed at 16 max.  The ponderous advance south has undoubtedly chewed through at least 3-4 of whatever number is up there.  If the push in the general direction of Barvinkove, with the intent of hooking east towards Slovyansk once across the river is the ME then at the rate they're going that is at least a fortnight away before they get there and more combat power than they've got, assuming that every town/village is going to be contested en route.  Taking Dovhenke as the example ... its hardly Stalingrad and if memory serves, it took 2-3 days (and probably at least one BTG) to break in there.

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

There was some talk of another 3-5 rocking up near Izyum a few days back.  Of course we have batted the figures around a bit and I said then that it was not clear what the oft batted around number of '22 x BTGs in the Izyum area' actually meant.  The salient extending south from Izyum I seem to recall I assessed at 16 max.  The ponderous advance south has undoubtedly chewed through at least 3-4 of whatever number is up there.  If the push in the general direction of Barvinkove, with the intent of hooking east towards Slovyansk once across the river is the ME then at the rate they're going that is at least a fortnight away before they get there and more combat power than they've got, assuming that every town/village is going to be contested en route.  Taking Dovhenke as the example ... its hardly Stalingrad and if memory serves, it took 2-3 days (and probably at least one BTG) to break in there.

I recall we did the math about 50 or so back and it did not add up.  I can't see it have gotten much better.  That and Russia is just taking too long, we have HIMARs sighted in theatre FFS.  I do not know why the RA did not do a three week recon phase while waiting for the remnants of the Northern front to come round the clock 12-to-4 but whatever.  

This is a ponderously slow advance, eating up combat power while new capabilities swing into theatre.  At this rate Russia will have to shift its strategic end-state (again) to "liberation of the suburbs of Slovyansk", declare victory and install a puppet city alderman and head librarian, and withdraw back to Russia for the victory parade.

[Boche]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

The traitor who gave the Russians information showed his face on TV? Can we start a pool on his life expectancy?

The forces in Mariupol have stood as bravely as any in human history.

 

May he live forever....

[Ultradave]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

This could have immediate effects...

This is awesome. With refills, one would hope.

Dave

[LukeFF]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ohio and West Virginia too  https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/west_virginia_and_ohio_provide_m113_apcs_in_military_aid_to_ukraine-2666.html

I heard about 200 M113 only from West Virginia. 

This is no problems with M113 more, than HMMWV M998 and Saxons AT-105. Our technical specialits create miracles ) 

The combined arms battalion I was in from 2007-08 in the California Army National Guard had M113s, but I don't know if they still have them. But yes, in general, the Army National Guard has a lot of really old equipment. Our trucks were from the late 70s/early 80s. 

[Kinophile]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, everyone note, this is where Tha Capt and Steve disagree, was bound to happen.  First off, show respect for the venerable "lunch-box war" as it has seen more action that just about any other carrier (I know, the BTR, blah blah).  She still has legs and can still get some jobs done.

I would not take her directly into battle as all those chain guns will cut her up but lets not forget the more elegant features of this grand dame:

- Simple, simple, simple.  You can literally teach a junior officer to drive one in an afternoon, from experience.

- Relatively easy maintenance.  Not as easy as wheeled but very simple analog systems onboard that can be done by driver and crew.

- Modular.  You can literally stick anything on this thing, so it can fulfill a lot of different roles.

- Mobile.  People would not believe where this thing can go but this little beetle has great battlefield mobility.

- Elegance.  You can't stop staring at those elegant lines.  She is built like a German milk maid...seriously I need a minute. 

So poo-poo all you want Steve, the M113 is one of the finest vehicles to ever grace the battlefield - to know her is to love her. 

You're getting your genders mixed. Gavin is a He, not a She.

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

You're getting your genders mixed. Gavin is a He, not a She.

Once you have take this beauty on the water, you can only see a shimmering lady gliding across the waters.  Only a “she” could hold me that close and get me home safe every time.  But hey, you be you, love is all good.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

You're getting your genders mixed. Gavin is a He, not a She.

The M113s are obviously obsolete for actual fire fights. I do assume they can haul more mortar ammo  more places than 97% of the Ukrainian truck fleet, and that is not nothing.

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, benpark said:

Impeccable taste, indeed.

BAT!!

Toast of London, if you need more of the genius that is Matt Berry.

Sorry for the interruption. I thought I was alone in my interests.

FIRE THE NUCLEAR MISSILE! **** you Clem Fandango!

 

 

[dan/california]

If we are being honest here 85% of the vehicles on both sides are various degrees of obsolete. Nothing in this war can can take a hit from a Javelin, or a Kornet. Most of it seems vulnerable to far less capable systems. So any AFV driver that wants to live is driving bloody carefully.

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The M113s are obviously obsolete for actual fire fights. I do assume they can haul more mortar ammo  more places than 97% of the Ukrainian truck fleet, and that is not nothing.

I suppose it all comes down to whether one wishes to drive around a hot area in a brightly colored kia mini SUV or an M113.  I would take the M113.  It's obsolete against BMP, BTR, etc, but why wouldn't I want it as a battle taxi if they only other choice is a civilian vehicle?

[BeondTheGrave]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The M113s are obviously obsolete for actual fire fights. I do assume they can haul more mortar ammo  more places than 97% of the Ukrainian truck fleet, and that is not nothing.

The M113 is a tried and tested battle taxi with a HUGE reserve of spare parts globally. IIRC the Army is still driving these things around for very specialized jobs. And certainly stuff built on the same powerplant and drivetrain. And it has the simplest of armaments, a single M2. Anything that can break on the M113 can easily be replaced or repaired. Is it sexy? No (well yes, but no). Is it going to go toe to toe with a BMP-3 or a BMP-T? No. But it has more armor protection than a softskin, it can carry troops or ammo from a to be, and you can do a lot with it. It could be a command post, it could be an ammo hauler, it could be a Medivac, weld an ATGM to the roof and you've made a bootleg TOW carrier. Ukraine will find it useful for the same reason why the US Army found it useful even after they got lots and lots of M2s. Is it the best IFV ever, no because its not an IFV. But you can do a lot of dumb **** with an M113 and if it breaks all youve lost is an M113. 

CMCW has totally changed how I look at the old girl  

Edited April 28, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[Kinophile]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Once you have take this beauty on the water, you can only see a shimmering lady gliding across the waters.  Only a “she” could hold me that close and get me home safe every time.  But hey, you be you, love is all good.

Now you're literally putting lipstick on a Pig.

[Kinophile]

This war is like CMRT, CMCW and CMBS got together one stormy night and made a very confused demon baby. 

 

Edited April 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[OldSarge]

15 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

The M113 is a tried and tested battle taxis with a HUGE reserve of spare parts globally. IIRC the Army is still driving these things around for very specialized jobs. And certainly stuff built on the same powerplant and drivetrain. And it has the simplest of armaments, a single M2. Anything that can break on the M113 can easily be replaced or repaired. Is it sexy? No (well yes, but no). Is it going to go toe to toe with a BMP-3 or a BMP-T? No. But it has more armor protection than a softskin, it can carry troops or ammo from a to be, and you can do a lot with it. It could be a command post, it could be an ammo hauler, it could be a Medivac, weld an ATGM to the roof and you've made a bootleg TOW carrier. Ukraine will find it useful for the same reason why the US Army found it useful even after they got lots and lots of M2s. Is it the best IFV ever, no because its not an IFV. But you can do a lot of dumb **** with an M113 and if it breaks all youve lost is an M113. 

CMCW has totally changed how I look at the old girl  

Yep, the M113 is quite versatile and has earned its keep for that very reason. Nearly every nation that has them has kept them around for a good and simple reason: the thing just works, like a beaten up, old pickup truck.

It is often said that necessity is the mother of invention. The Ukrainians have demonstrated time and again that they are very resourceful and I'm sure that they'll put the old gal to good use.

Edited April 28, 2022 by OldSarge

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Kinophile said:

This war is like CMRT, CMCW and CMBS got together one night and made a very confused demon baby. 

 

Imagine how the guys betting their rear ends on this rolling junkyard feel...

[Vacillator]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

FIRE THE NUCLEAR MISSILE! **** you Clem Fandango!

Hang on, so our Imperialist Channel 4 comedy has invaded your territory?  Okay, Russia is next.

[Kinophile]

Wife and I discovered it early. I'm Irish, we met at home some she's familiar with the comedy. God have we laughed at that show. Incredibly funny. We first saw Mat Berry on The IT Crowd.

Anyhow burble burble back on thread

[Harmon Rabb]

Lend-Lease was passed by the United States House of Representatives.

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the BTG thing...

I am now leery of any claim of "BTG" I see.  I have a feeling that most of them are hollow out shells of their former selves.  Much like how the German 6th SS Panzer Army was so named because it had a total of 6 tanks.  I am inclined to take any count of BTGs and divide it in half to determine rough equivalency in fighting strength to a full BTG.  That might be hitting the count too hard, but then again it might be generous!

If we presume 700 as the average BTG size going into this war, and the average is now 350, this means a this would mean a paper strength 22 BTG force has a real strength of around 7700.  The low end KIA/WIA count seems to be around 200 men every day lost.  That's about 8 days of fighting before the "22 BTGs" are totally spent.  We are at Day 11 of the offensive.

I think we're seeing signs that my rough calculations are not all that off the mark.  If they are roughly correct, then the new BTGs being thrown into the battle are there to keep the basic offensive moving forward, not as some sort of breakthrough force.  And if that's all they have left, then this battle is over by the end of the week or early next week.

Steve

[Splinty]

Don't underestimate the M113. They are armored as well as BMP 1s and 2s. They are excellent as battlefield ambulances, frontline ammo carriers, ways to get tank and IFV recovery crews to damaged AFVs under armor and multiple other logistical tasks.   They will free up other IFVs to do the fighting and give the poor truck drivers a break.