How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Re the "big picture:

The Biden administration has made weakening Russia (rather than “winning”) a major strategic goal and that so far seems to be working.  But that strategy may have a long way to go.

The only way to "win" the war is for Russia to surrender and succumb to radical change imposed by the outside.  That is not going to happen, so ejecting them from Ukraine and hoping for something better after Putin is the only things Ukraine and the West can directly control.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

The only way that Russia will not be able to replace its losses in the next few years after the Ukraine war ends, is via lack of the microchips needed to make high tech weapons work. 

This again...   The last three times I've challenged you (yes, I am keeping track) on this nonsense you simply stop responding and then come back with it.  Let's see if you continue your track record...

Russia's entire economy is in the dumpster and is headed to the landfill.  Even if China could suddenly produce the chips and other components Russia needs (and that is very much a "no" short term), Russia has no money to replace nearly 15+ years of equipment production that has already been lost.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

That’s where China comes in as a major manufacturer and supplier.  China has a vested interest in maintaining Russia’s military capabilities as major threat to east Europe to distract the west from its designs in the Pacific.  China recently signed an agreement with the Solomons and it appears we’ll soon see a Chinese military base there – perfectly situated to threaten the supply routes between Australia and the US.

Sure, in theory.  In reality Russia is going to be China's next North Korea.  An irritant to the West, not a major distraction.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

It is becoming clear that Russian strategy is now to maintain a secure land bridge thru Mariupol from Russia to Crimea.  But what’s next? 

The Russian navy is mounting a blockade of Ukraine's most important ports in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov breaking the transit chains. Ukraine is one of the world’s major producers of wheat and sunflower seeds and other agricultural products. Even if some farmers are able to plant this year, getting their harvest to market without ports could be nearly impossible. According to the United Nations, global food prices have already risen sharply, up 12% over the last few months.

Obviously that is what Russia is up to, but this requires active investment (military and economic) to maintain it long term.  No signs they have either available to do it.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

Concerns are growing that neighboring Moldova, another former Soviet republic, could be dragged into the conflict. The breakaway pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria (a strip of territory east of the Dnieper) is a breakaway pro-Russian enclave.  The narrow strip of land was carved out of Moldova after a civil war in 1992 and is held by pro-Russian nationalists. Many in the population of 350,000 hold Russian passports.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria

Three separate attacks earlier this week targeted a Transnistrian military base, two radio towers and the headquarters of its state security service stirring concerns that the 1,500 Russian troops (described by Moscow as “peacekeepers”) stationed in Transnistria could be deployed in western Ukraine.

The Kremlin on Tuesday said it was following the situation in Transnistria closely. “Obviously the news coming from there is causing concern,” said President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.  Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said Russia “hopes to avoid being drawn into a conflict over Transnistria”.

This is a sideshow distraction.  It has no potential to be anything more than that.  1500 of some of Russia's least prepared troops could only be "deployed in western Ukraine" as POWs.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

This indicates possible “Phases 2 and 3” to the Russian strategy.  

1) Russia secures the Crimea land bridge.  That gives Ukraine a dilemma. 

No dilemma.  Ukraine will not stop this war until all Russian forces are off its territory.  This now seems to include Donbas, it might be extended to Crimea (though I suspect negotiations for that).

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

2) Start a campaign from Transnistria east and south into Ukraine, with the ultimate goal of extending the “Crimea Bridge” all the way to Transnistria – using the Black Sea port of Odessa.

This is Hitler Bunker Fantasy Talk™.  There is no chance, at all, of anything happening out of Transnistria that is worth mentioning.  We've discussed this already.  It's total crap thinking.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61233095

In this strategy one can see how Russia could claim a victory to the only audience it cares about – the Russian population and China.

Putin can only be said to have lost if Russia is completely driven from the Donbas and the Crimea.  Alternatively, there is a serious threat that in a few years Putin may have effectively pushed the borders of his political power and military presence west to include Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova.  From there…?  The only measure that will stop Putin is his removal from power and authority. 

Other than the last sentence here (true), the rest is total fantasy.

4 minutes ago, Erwin said:

The question is whether this can be accomplished by merely supporting Ukraine with weapons.

And destroying the Russian economy, but you haven't yet seemed to grasp the significance of that.

So yes, supply Ukraine with everything it needs to continue the war (this includes funding for non-wartime activities) and making sure Russia doesn't, that's a winning strategy.

Steve

[Haiduk]

UKR MiG-29 takes off under artillery fire. Data and location unknown. There is some information our jets use highways as runways

 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am 100% convinced that most of the first wave of soldiers didn't know they were going into Ukraine until they were already in a vehicle headed that way.  The last time we discussed this several ex-NATO soldiers said they experienced the same thing (in peacetime) where they were told one thing and then when they got off the plane found they were somewhere else.  This happened to my own father in 1959 as a US paratrooper.

The difference here is that if a NATO force were to go into another country, for real, they would not go in clueless about their mission.  A few hours or more before the move they would get a pizza delivery.

 

Steve

fixed that for ya

 

[sburke]

man the Russians must have vests covering their feet as many times as they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Gazprom ‘blackmail’ backfires as EU vows to end energy dependence on Russia (msn.com)

[womble]

The other day (yesterday? COVID fogs brains...) there was some UN bigwig (General Secretary) in Moscow talking to the Chief Invader about peace. I wish the bleeding hearts would butt out. It's Ukraine's choice as to whether they'll accept peace "now." It's not up to some idealist irrelevanti's handwringing whether Ukraine lets the Russians off the hook. Fortunately for the future, Zelensky knows that, Biden seems clear and most of the EU are right there with 'em.

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

man the Russians must have vests covering their feet as many times as they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Gazprom ‘blackmail’ backfires as EU vows to end energy dependence on Russia (msn.com)

Significant is the explicit EU assertion that there won't be any place in their energy plans for Russian hydrocarbons, even once the hostilities have ceased and Russia has wound its neck in. Understandable really. Even money-grubbing businessfolk with alley-cat ethics have to have really good reasons to resume doing business with "partners" who have stabbed you in the back as badly as Russia has. That the Russians don't understand this is simply additional evidence of their "alien" mindset. It seems to be getting pretty close to impossible to communicate with them any more, other than by kicking them in the unmentionables.

[akd]

BMP-3M and T-72B somewhere in Donbas:

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by akd

[FancyCat]

Aren't many of the chips in Russian cruise missiles american? Tons of components are European. While probably china can replace most components, it will be expensive and with what money for Russia to pay with? Especially when sanctions raise the cost of business?

[Battlefront.com]

Article on US intel and coordination with Ukraine to deal with the aerial and missile threats in realtime.  Interestingly, they are still talking about the as of yet visually unconfirmed shoot down of the VDV plane:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mystery-of-early-russian-failures-in-ukraine-explained-with-new-revelations-of-us-intelligence-help/ar-AAWDU92?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7f447c1774c14785819773f89f11c5c0

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article on US intel and coordination with Ukraine to deal with the aerial and missile threats in realtime.  Interestingly, they are still talking about the as of yet visually unconfirmed shoot down of the VDV plane:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mystery-of-early-russian-failures-in-ukraine-explained-with-new-revelations-of-us-intelligence-help/ar-AAWDU92?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=7f447c1774c14785819773f89f11c5c0

Couldn't have the plane gone down into the Dnipro?

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Aren't many of the chips in Russian cruise missiles american? Tons of components are European. While probably china can replace most components, it will be expensive and with what money for Russia to pay with? Especially when sanctions raise the cost of business?

Yes, the fantasy talk about quickly switching over to Chinese chips is just that... divorced from reality.  Even if China decided this was worth the economic retaliation by their best customers (US and Europe), they don't have the capabilities to do it any time soon if at all. 

And it's not just chips.  That's the tip of the iceberg.  There are a whole host of highly specialized bits and pieces that go into anything high tech.  Each one not produced in Russia or China will require new production or adaptation of designs to use similar, but not identical, parts.

This was just posted and it gives an excellent look at how dependent Russia is on stuff that is now sanctioned.  Skip to Page 20:

https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202204-operation-z-web.pdf

Steve

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, the fantasy talk about quickly switching over to Chinese chips is just that... divorced from reality.  Even if China decided this was worth the economic retaliation by their best customers (US and Europe), they don't have the capabilities to do it any time soon if at all. 

And it's not just chips.  That's the tip of the iceberg.  There are a whole host of highly specialized bits and pieces that go into anything high tech.  Each one not produced in Russia or China will require new production or adaptation of designs to use similar, but not identical, parts.

This was just posted and it gives an excellent look at how dependent Russia is on stuff that is now sanctioned.  Skip to Page 20:

https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202204-operation-z-web.pdf

Steve

and chips are attached to specialized circuit boards w specialized circuits.  And there's the firmware embedded in the systems so they talk to the software the russians put into the system.  It's a whole big chain of stuff. 

Even once they get all this stuff made, it would be rushed and insanely unreliable. 

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an interesting take on what might have motivated Putin to attack Ukraine now.  Short version is... he sees that each generation of Russian is less prone to violence than the previous one and this generation, in particular, is more inclined to play video games and drink coffee.  For someone who is violent and domineering, this "weakness" might be so resented that Putin decided to "poison the well".

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/26/2094225/-A-terrifying-look-into-Putin-s-possible-motivation-leading-to-the-invasion-of-Ukraine?pm_source=story_sidebar&pm_medium=web&pm_campaign=recommended

I'm not sure how much I think this is at play, but I have to say for several months now this quote of Hitler's from Mein Kampf has come to mind:

Quote

Those who want to live, let them fight, and those who do not want to fight in this world of eternal struggle do not deserve to live.

And the famous rant at the end of his days in the bunker:

Quote

The report states: 'Hitler came in at 8.30 a completely broken man. Only a few army officers were with him. Himmler urged Hitler to leave Berlin.

'Suddenly, Hitler began to make one of his characteristic speeches: "Everyone has lied to me, everyone has deceived me, non[sic] one has told me the truth. The armed forces have lied to me and now the SS have left me in the lurch. The German people has not fought heroically, it deserves to perish. It is not I who have lost the war, but the German people".'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2223471/Guy-Liddell-diaries-Hitlers-rant-deceived-days-Berlin-bunker.html

We've long since given Putin the nickname of "Putler".  Maybe it's more true than we had feared?

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

59 minutes ago, sburke said:

man the Russians must have vests covering their feet as many times as they are shooting themselves in the foot.

Gazprom ‘blackmail’ backfires as EU vows to end energy dependence on Russia (msn.com)

Soon the only way Putin will be able to get the west to take him seriously is reminding the west that he has nuclear weapons, almost like some chant.

 

Edited April 27, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[akd]

14 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here is another video.  This is a paratrooper who went into Hostomel on the 24th and he said they didn't now squat until they were in the helicopter.  They had no idea what to do when the landed because NOBODY briefed them, so they did what they were trained to do which was make a "horseshoe" around the helicopter and waited for someone to tell them what to do next.  He went on to describe complete chaos and cluelessness.  He was seriously wounded by artillery and was left to die.  He only later found out the reason why was everybody else had been killed.  He was captured, obviously.  He also stated that their training wasn't good.  Better than the average Russian, but he actually felt Ukrainians were better trained than he was.

 

@16:46, he describes his BMD hitting a concrete block and “going vertical,” but his hand gestures suggest it ran up onto it and got stuck:

Seems a good match for what he describes.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Progress in the Kherson region.  Anybody care to try and geolocate the first picture?

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

@16:46, he describes his BMD hitting a concrete block and “going vertical,” but his hand gestures suggest it ran up onto it and got stuck:

Seems a good match for what he describes.

 

Wow, I didn't connect those two.  I think you nailed it.  Not too many similar incidences to link together like that.  It's not like the POW talked about his vehicle driving off a bridge or getting stuck in the mud

Steve

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier repairs a tank after fighting against Russian forces in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Wednesday April 27, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP"

* Tank = T-64

 

"A Ukrainian soldier inspects an abandoned Russian tank, in Moshchun near kyiv, April 19, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

* Russian Tank = T-80BV

[Pete Wenman]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anybody care to try and geolocate the first picture?

that was easy - famous last words

46.82000, 32.25183 or thereabouts

[Bearstronaut]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

In your situation you were in charge of safety.  That isn't a rank thing, that is a responsibility thing.  Therefore, you were expected to bark at someone that was putting lives at risk.  The CO for whatever you were doing would be a fool if he didn't want it that way.

The LT I yelled at went and told the range OIC what I said to him after he got off the range. The OIC pulled me aside later and said “you were right to correct 1LT Snuffy but maybe next time use a bit more tact, SGT.” 

[Battlefront.com]

Thanks Pete!  Yeah, in hindsight that was pretty obvious   The only two other main roads were obviously not it.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Bearstronaut said:

The LT I yelled at went and told the range OIC what I said to him after he got off the range. The OIC pulled me aside later and said “you were right to correct 1LT Snuffy but maybe next time use a bit more tact, SGT.” 

heh... I was wondering if that was the next part of your story

There was a story early on in Iraq where a young LT, fresh from CONUS, saw some bedraggled NCOs laying about on their vehicles.  Unshaven, dirty, etc.  The LT was pissed they didn't salute him so he tried to make that point to them.  They used all manner of colorful language to suggest the LT should go away.  He went to his CO to complain, the CO said those guys were SF that had just come back from a mission, and made the suggestion that he shouldn't bother them again.  Or something like that   In this case I doubt anybody went over to those SF guys, pulled them aside, and suggested they do anything different for the next encounter with 1LT Snuffy

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-25-26-april-2022-aa0c1122320e

Interesting, Tom Cooper is talking HIMARS have arrived to Ukraine.

"Thus, there’s no ‘Strategic’ section today: the only thing that really matters right now is that the Ukrainian railway system is largely back at its full speed, that first batch each of US-made M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers is in Ukraine, and Ukrainian Army troops are undergoing training on Panzerhaubitze 2000, which is going to be delivered at least from Italy, if not from Germany, too (BTW, the latter is going to deliver 50 Gepards — which, contrary to what nearly everybody is reporting, are no ‘tanks’, but a pair of Swiss-made, Oerlikon autocannons calibre 35mm installed on the chassis of the Leopard 1 tank….and so complex, training on them is taking long)."

[Ultradave]

14 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

The LT I yelled at went and told the range OIC what I said to him after he got off the range. The OIC pulled me aside later and said “you were right to correct 1LT Snuffy but maybe next time use a bit more tact, SGT.” 

My Dad (an E-5 at the time) had the wheel of a destroyer escort entering Boston harbor, sometime after they came home from Korean War. Having grown up sailing in Boston harbor, when the OD ordered right 30deg rudder he questioned it. When the OD insisted he said something like "Dumb****, there are rocks over there - the pier is left 30deg" 

Later he was "dressed down" by the CO, who said something like, "You know I have to berate you for disrespect, but I do thank you for not blindly putting my ship on the rocks. Next time, maybe a little more tact, or call for another officer"

Dave

[The_MonkeyKing]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-25-26-april-2022-aa0c1122320e

Interesting, Tom Cooper is talking HIMARS have arrived to Ukraine.

"Thus, there’s no ‘Strategic’ section today: the only thing that really matters right now is that the Ukrainian railway system is largely back at its full speed, that first batch each of US-made M142 HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers is in Ukraine, and Ukrainian Army troops are undergoing training on Panzerhaubitze 2000, which is going to be delivered at least from Italy, if not from Germany, too (BTW, the latter is going to deliver 50 Gepards — which, contrary to what nearly everybody is reporting, are no ‘tanks’, but a pair of Swiss-made, Oerlikon autocannons calibre 35mm installed on the chassis of the Leopard 1 tank….and so complex, training on them is taking long)."

https://www.world-today-news.com/the-united-states-began-to-supply-ukraine-with-mlrs/

source I presume: 
“We are already delivering MLRS systems,” Nuland said. (Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs of the United States)

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

I am 100% convinced that most of the first wave of soldiers didn't know they were going into Ukraine until they were already in a vehicle headed that way.  The last time we discussed this several ex-NATO soldiers said they experienced the same thing (in peacetime) where they were told one thing and then when they got off the plane found they were somewhere else.  This happened to my own father in 1959 as a US paratrooper.

It's actually Steve that said this but quoting the quote gets wonky

There were several times we got on planes and were not told, for security leak reasons, where we were going until we were on the planes and the engines were running. Actually more than several. Some training. A few real. Then the maps came out and planning started while we were in the air. (it was always far enough away for plenty of time)

The only time we ended up in a different place than briefed was on a jump right on Ft Bragg for training. We were supposed to be dropped (my 6 man team) on one of the sandy flights trips in the woods surrounded by tall pine trees. It was totally socked in. I was the first one in the door (only officer so that's what you do). Jumpmaster leans out, looks, leans back in, looks at me, leans out, leans back in "I can't see $h1t, sir"  All I could see was white out the door over his shoulder. (the Jumpmaster is supposed to verify the drop zone). Green light comes on. I tapped him on the shoulder, pointed to the green light and he yells "STANDINTHEDOORGO!!!" So I went. 

About 100 ft above the ground we finally came out of the clouds and I realized we were landing on the biggest drop zone on Fort Bragg - it's like 2.5 miles long and 3/4 mile wide, clear sand with just shrubs. Whew!! Thank God. And then "I hope someone told our driver"  They did.  Pilots didn't bother to let us know we were dropping 10 miles from where we were supposed to. But those flight strips are 500m long and about 50m wide surrounded by telephone pole pine trees. It would have been ugly.

OK. War stories over.

Dave