How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, James Bond 007 is to blame...

I hope/expect it's Russian people, after that the most probable SBU.
Although I guess Boris the fool (I bought one of his books so that's allowed ) might have certain moist dreams 

[The_Capt]

21 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Uups...

 

 

Ok so this plus the fires is starting to get weird.  Could be one of three things to my mind:

1. Coincidence, but that is starting to strain.

2. Russian false flag setup to justify broader mobilization, but some of this is looking like it is starting to hurt.  Have the Russians spun any of these as foreign attacks?  Nazi Saboteurs?

3. Western political warfare is beginning to kick in and we are seeing the emergence of a supported insurgency in Russia itself, it could be an organic movement or a combination of both. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

  Have the Russians spun any of these as foreign attacks? Nazi Saboteurs?

Someone noted yesterday that they specifically did not blame these incidents on any Ukrainian/Nazi elements, sugggesting they might be real attacks and not false flag. 

[keas66]

3 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Someone noted yesterday that they specifically did not blame these incidents on any Ukrainian/Nazi elements, sugggesting they might be real attacks and not false flag. 

I think maybe my false flag attacks would be a little less damaging to my back-end war infrastructure if I had any sense ?

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Someone noted yesterday that they specifically did not blame these incidents on any Ukrainian/Nazi elements, sugggesting they might be real attacks and not false flag. 

Ah, well we should probably have a conversation on an aspect to this war almost no one is talking about; however, over time it is going to accelerate and that is the employment of political warfare with Russia itself.  This in effect allows for political and strategic friction deeper into the Russian system normally it stays in the information space but there are no rules saying it has to though.  This is a really tricky arena because it is how things like WW1 start but we were talking about options. 

[Huba]

The fires could as well be a result of cyber attacks - some digitally controlled machine overheats and catches fire. Anybody remembers Stuxnet? Not sure about the locks, I don't see the proof of it being blown. Maybe just both gates opened at the same time, cause you know, computer malfunction? 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[Ts4EVER]

That was my thought as well actually. Then again, how digitalized is Russian infrastructure... ?

Edited April 22, 2022 by Ts4EVER

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

With 40 crew you can equipped 13 CAESAR (max) or 8 if you used is maximum transport capacity.

The more crew there is, the less tiring it is to man the gun. Personally I think it takes a minimum of 4 regarding how they are going to use it

I am sure this is a "train the trainer" situation where the crews trained in France on CAESAR will go back to Ukraine and train more.  At least that is the sensible thing to do because it gives Ukraine the ability to field in as many CAESARs that France sends them without having to send crews to/from France.

BTW, I really like the CAESAR system from a logistics standpoint.  It is self propelled (shoot and scoot), but it is wheeled instead of tracked.  Much easier to keep operational vs. tracked.  One of the reasons is you can tap into a wider range of mechanics in civilian clothing to help fix routine problems vs. tracked vehicles.

Thumbs up

Steve

[sburke]

3 hours ago, akd said:

lol, whut?

well yeah I mean of course we are.  Clearly Russian tankers are doping.  The turret toss competition is absolutely borked.  This is just making a mockery of Intenational competition.  Wait what were we talking about?

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That was my thought as well actually. Then again, how digitalized is Russian infrastructure... ?

Now think about all these western supplied oil and gas drilling machines...

The fires in research institutes might be just a gentle warning that Russia is to behave or else.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

The fires could as well be a result of cyber attacks - some digitally controlled machine overheats and catches fire. Anybody remembers Stuxnet? Not sure about the locks, I don't see the proof of it being blown. Maybe just both gates opened at the same time, cause you know, computer malfunction? 

Or could be two guys with vodka bottles filled with soap and gasoline.  The thing about political or subversive warfare is that it takes time to set up and put into motion.  Normally done through assets and asset networks in the target country, trained, funded and supplied with equipment and information.  This sort of war is very hard to see and very hard to attribute by-design.  They will definitely include cyber along with a possible suite of "special" capabilities.  All we will likely see on the outside are manifestations and weird reports, kinda like fires/industrial accidents within Russian infrastructure, accidents of key leadership - although the West does not condone the use of assassination as a tool of warfare I am not so sure where the Ukrainians stand, leaking key information and all sorts of shenanigans and monkey-shines. 

[Haiduk]

Rare Russian equipment - BMP-1AM "Basurmanin" in Kupyansk, Kharkiv oblast

BMP-1AM is BMP-1P with weapon module from BTR-82A. Such vehicles since 2021 were brought to service for units of Eastern military district, where remained enough BMP-1. Probably this BMP-1AM belongs to one of 10 BTGs of 5th CAA, which were moved to Ulraine from Far East three weeks ago.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

Not sure if this was reported but it feels "stealthy Switchblade-y"

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/04/meet-phoenix-ghost-the-us-air-forces-new-drone-designed-for-ukraines-war-with-russia/

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

@Huba
Ukrainian troops (40 soldiers) begin training in France with Caesar 155mm 52-caliber self-propelled howitzers donated by France, said Macron in @OuestFrance

http://lignesdedefense.blogs.ouest-france.fr/archive/2022/04/22/40-artilleurs-ukrainiens-en-france-a-parti-de-ce-week-end-po-23000.html

With 40 crew you can equipped 13 CAESAR (max) or 8 if you used is maximum transport capacity.

The more crew there is, the less tiring it is to man the gun. Personally I think it takes a minimum of 4 regarding how they are going to use it

 

Training the trainers. And the longest lessons are going to be on the maintenance side of things. Meaning mechanics and technicians.

[Battlefront.com]

Regarding the Russian announcement of their "phase 2" war aims...

Some of you might recall that just before the war there was a statement from someone high up in the Russian leadership (head of the Duma or something?) that stated very clearly that Russia was seeking to recognize only the existing DLPR territory.  Then Putin came out right after and explicitly stated it included all of the territory within those Oblasts, which of course the portions Ukraine currently occupied.  It was THAT STATEMENT that caused me to conclude that war was about to happen (though limited to Donbas initially, so I hoped!).  And a couple of days later the war started.

So now we have Russian government announcements that reinforces that they are looking for "full control over Donbas" and now also an official statement that they intend on keeping all of Southern Ukraine they already have *AND* take everything from Kherson to Moldova.

This is bad news for people like me who had hoped Russia was about to throw in the towel and declare victory (which Ukraine would dispute, obviously).

My take on this is that Russia now thinks the war will go something like this:

1. secure the rest of Donbas (active now)
2. redeploy all forces into the Kherson bridgehead and advance westward to take the strip of Black Sea Ukraine deep enough north to be viable economically (road/rail network)
3. sue for peace with Russia keeping everything it took

This is complete lunacy, of course.  The problem is Putin might not see it that way.

If we look at Putin's traditional "escalate to deescalate" maybe he's putting the advance to Moldova out there as something he's willing to "compromise" on at the negotiating table?  That certainly would be more rational than thinking Russia could pull it off.

Steve

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this is called a Black Elephant and we have danced around it margins a lot on this forum for obvious reasons.  I am Canadian and try not to weigh in on any one nations politics - we have got enough silliness of our own and do not intend  open up this can of worms but maybe we can look at the can.

The road to this war extends across the aisle, the world does not "happen" in the 4-8 year US administration cycles. If US readers of this walk away with one thing, let it be that.  The US has enormous influence but in a highly complex system such as "war" the causes are rarely determined in a few short years of a presidential term.  More succinctly "it is not all about you", and this applies to my own country as the political noise is trying to play this one as well.  

Putin has been in power for over 20 years and the western failures leading to today are long and winding on both sides of the aisle.  No one US president is responsible, they all are - kinda comes with the job.  

As to the particular former administration, I will lean in slightly: listen to the advisors and spokes-people before this war and it gives a hint at what the actual policy might have been.  I point to Col Macgregor as one of my favorites, a former military advisor to the White House and someone I take particular issue with, not only because he has consistently been wrong but also because he has sold out on a core principle of objective military advice.  Look up and listen to his analysis and assessment on YouTube for those looking for a window at what advice would have been provided in this crisis...and I will leave it at that.  

If you look up the guys at defensepriorities.org you will find a salad bar of the opinions that would have been policy. It's simply who was in the room before late January, 2021.

[riptides]

The guys and gals at OSINT have a pretty good sense of humor.

 

Some of the tweets in the thread are absolutely hilarious.

 

[Huba]

 

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Or could be two guys with vodka bottles filled with soap and gasoline.  The thing about political or subversive warfare is that it takes time to set up and put into motion.  Normally done through assets and asset networks in the target country, trained, funded and supplied with equipment and information.  This sort of war is very hard to see and very hard to attribute by-design.  They will definitely include cyber along with a possible suite of "special" capabilities.  All we will likely see on the outside are manifestations and weird reports, kinda like fires/industrial accidents within Russian infrastructure, accidents of key leadership - although the West does not condone the use of assassination as a tool of warfare I am not so sure where the Ukrainians stand, leaking key information and all sorts of shenanigans and monkey-shines. 

We can only guess at this point. Could be sabotage by Ukrainians agents as well or pure coincidence.  The idea of massive destructive cyber attacks on infrastructure is fascinating though, given the prevalence of Western soft- and hardware in most industries. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

There are sort of three ways this "new" for Ukraine drone could be going. The first is just that someone is getting overpaid for redoing all the displays and manuals for the switch blade in Ukrainian. The second is that it a more robust communications link for the switchblade that resists Russian jamming or some such. The third is that they are optimizing the payload to do a job the U.S. would do with a different system. My first random thought is maybe either some sort anti radar seeker head that homes in on Russian air defense or higher level communication systems. My second random thought is that maybe an incendiary warhead for the switch blade was deemed very useful. Could a combination any or all of these of course

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The road to this war extends across the aisle, the world does not "happen" in the 4-8 year US administration cycles. If US readers of this walk away with one thing, let it be that.  The US has enormous influence but in a highly complex system such as "war" the causes are rarely determined in a few short years of a presidential term.  More succinctly "it is not all about you", and this applies to my own country as the political noise is trying to play this one as well.  

Yeah, that is it exactly   A friend of mine who was there said afterwards something like "you just got through telling us this war was in the making since the 9th Century, and he she still thinks this all comes down to the differences between Trump and Biden".

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Putin has been in power for over 20 years and the western failures leading to today are long and winding on both sides of the aisle.  No one US president is responsible, they all are - kinda comes with the job.  

Yes.  This is the direct result of Putin's "incrementalist" approach to advancing his view of Russia's interests.  Nibble instead of biting and the opposition won't materialize.  The irony is the brilliance of Putin's previous approach was just proved by the stupidity of this war that Putin started.  He bit and the world was obligated to act.

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to the particular former administration, I will lean in slightly: listen to the advisors and spokes-people before this war and it gives a hint at what the actual policy might have been.  I point to Col Macgregor as one of my favorites, a former military advisor to the White House and someone I take particular issue with, not only because he has consistently been wrong but also because he has sold out on a core principle of objective military advice.  Look up and listen to his analysis and assessment on YouTube for those looking for a window at what advice would have been provided in this crisis...and I will leave it at that.  

Oh yes, it's very clear to anybody who looks at it objectively. 

Again, not wanting to be political, just sharing a very recent personal experience that is relative to this discussion in terms of understanding mindsets.

The woman last night also tossed out a bunch of other random US right wing MAGA talking points before storming off, one of which was that "Biden losing Afghanistan" was another reason why Putin attacked.  This, of course, doesn't address that 3 different Presidents screwed up Afghanistan before it was dropped into Putin's lap, nor does it recognize that Trump had put the collapse into motion and had he been President for a second term the collapse would have happened under his watch (specifics, of course, might have been quite different).

A truism is that the more extreme someone's belief system is (politics, culture, food, sports, gaming, etc.) the less likely they are to make coherent or consistent arguments and the more likely they will attack (or at least disbelieve) those that do.  Standard rule of physics is that the more unbalanced something is the less likely it will last.

Every society, ALL OF THEM, have people like I dealt with last night.  In my view it is because it's inherently biological.  There is a certain % of the Human population that is biologically wired to view the world through extremes.  Culture and nurture influence the specifics of the belief system and the individual "chooses" which thing to focus on.  Again, there's no difference between the woman I interacted with last night and an "eco-Nazi", extreme BLM supporter, or an extreme Feminist.  The beliefs are not really the issue, it's the underlying predisposition to view the world in overly simplistic ways, build an identity around it, and vehemently defend it from external challenge.

Steve

[MikeyD]

27 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

...but it feels "stealthy Switchblade-y"

You look on the internet and every supposed picture of 'Phoenix Ghost' is another drone type. Its either Switchblade or GoPro or hand-launched observation drone! Half the pictures I found labeled 'Phoenix Ghost' were actually Switchblade 600.

Edited April 22, 2022 by MikeyD

[BornGinger]

32 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Or could be two guys with vodka bottles filled with soap and gasoline. 

 

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

We can only guess at this point. Could be sabotage by Ukrainians agents as well or pure coincidence. 

I would use the term "We can only speculate". It's obviously the Smurfs that have become confused and see Putin as Gargamel threatening Smurfette. She is partly yellow and blue after all.

Edited April 22, 2022 by BornGinger

[Der Zeitgeist]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There are sort of three ways this "new" for Ukraine drone could be going. The first is just that someone is getting overpaid for redoing all the displays and manuals for the switch blade in Ukrainian. The second is that it a more robust communications link for the switchblade that resists Russian jamming or some such. The third is that they are optimizing the payload to do a job the U.S. would do with a different system. My first random thought is maybe either some sort anti radar seeker head that homes in on Russian air defense or higher level communication systems. My second random thought is that maybe an incendiary warhead for the switch blade was deemed very useful. Could a combination any or all of these of course

There's another possibility.

It could just be PsyOps with a scary name ("Phoenix Ghost"? Come on...) to promote loitering suicide drone hysteria in Russian troops and maybe draw out their SHORAD systems.

[Battlefront.com]

A follow up thought to LLF's summarizing of pro-Russian talking points:

There were several in there that tried to establish that Ukraine's claims of battlefield superiority over Russians were in doubt because of videos edited to make artillery look like it is pinpoint accurate.  First, this ignores that Russian videos have been WILDLY edited, including mixing video from entirely different engagements as if they are the same.  However, the second point is... so what if Ukraine videos are edited to show the artillery being more effective than it is?  The results are what matters, right?  Should be.  And when we look at the results, it is pretty clear that whether it takes Ukraine 10 shells to kill a single tank or 1, the tank is still dead.

Here's a great example of what I'm talking about (thanks Haiduk).  Video is obviously edited and it is a little hard to follow the "narrative" at times.  But the results are confirmed not only from drone follow ups but by video on the ground.  How many rounds did it take to do this?  The Russians in the video most likely don't think that's very relevant.

 

[ratdeath]

4 minutes ago, BornGinger said:

 

I would use the term "We can only speculate". It's obviously the Smurfs that have become confused and see Putin as Gargamel threatening Smurfette. She is partly yellow and blue after all.

And the cat is Alexander Lukaschenko?