How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chuckdyke]

6 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Inside an abandoned T-72. Looks uncomfortable.

Looks like a big burly bloke inside. I doubt he would be considered as a crew member. On a lighter note, will UAVs like the Hornet PD-100 Black Hornet Nano Unmanned Air Vehicle (army-technology.com) be accurate enough to fly inside 120mm gun barrels from a few miles away? Thereby obstructing the cannon. It would put AT tactics on a new level. 

Edited April 22, 2022 by chuckdyke

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Probus]

Is this footage of infantry attacking a tank and also GoPro footage from the tank?

I thought tanks were supposed to support the infantry in urban warfare not lead the way?!?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Sanctions will make Russia's economy self sufficient and stronger in the long term. It was all part of Putin's master plan!

In all seriousness it looks like Russia's future is being China's gas station.

 

[akd]

20 minutes ago, Probus said:

Is this footage of infantry attacking a tank and also GoPro footage from the tank?

I thought tanks were supposed to support the infantry in urban warfare not lead the way?!?

No, all the video is from a Russian propaganda crew.

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Problem is that the UNSC has become dysfunctional,

Hypothetically situations have now become factual. Russia invaded and vetoed the UNSC resolution. It made a farce of the organization. The Ukrainian people pay the price a completely wrecked infrastructure of their country. Russia sees the Ukraine as their territory and if they can't secure terrain, they apply their scorched earth strategy. That putin is on borrowed time doesn't do a Ukrainian person much good whose daughter has been raped or his son was killed after brewing up a Russian tank. 

[The_Capt]

26 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Hypothetically situations have now become factual. Russia invaded and vetoed the UNSC resolution. It made a farce of the organization. The Ukrainian people pay the price a completely wrecked infrastructure of their country. Russia sees the Ukraine as their territory and if they can't secure terrain, they apply their scorched earth strategy. That putin is on borrowed time doesn't do a Ukrainian person much good whose daughter has been raped or his son was killed after brewing up a Russian tank. 

Well one could argue that the organization was marginalized long before this whole dance.  The US invasion of Iraq in 03 was definitely a nail in its coffin.  The global order that the UN was supposed to both represent and embody has been stressed and cracking for decades, this has likely just finished the job.

This is not good news.  As constipated and dysfunctional as the UN was it is better than the alternative, which is back to the old anarchy of nations with multipolar power arrangements largely ungovernable besides the rule of the gun.  That is where we were in 1914 except now we have nukes.  So yes Ukraine is bad but what could follow may be a lot worse if we don’t put this whole thing back in a box.

Putin’s sins in Ukraine are historic but if we don’t get our sh#t together collectively he is going to go down as a footnote, assuming there is anyone left to write it down. And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.

 

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well one could argue that the organization was marginalized long before this whole dance.  The US invasion of Iraq in 03 was definitely a nail in its coffin.  The global order that the UN was supposed to both represent and embody has been stressed and cracking for decades, this has likely just finished the job.

This is not good news.  As constipated and dysfunctional as the UN was it is better than the alternative, which is back to the old anarchy of nations with multipolar power arrangements largely ungovernable besides the rule of the gun.  That is where we were in 1914 except now we have nukes.  So yes Ukraine is bad but what could follow may be a lot worse if we don’t put this whole thing back in a box.

Putin’s sins in Ukraine are historic but if we don’t get our sh#t together collectively he is going to go down as a footnote, assuming there is anyone left to write it down. And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.

 

you guys are making me feel depressed.  Can we get another picture of a tractor hauling a tank?

[dan/california]

8 hours ago, Desertor said:

Maybe is the novachock laced tea

The FSB manual states that the novachuk goes in the underwear. The polonium goes in the tea. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Putin’s sins in Ukraine are historic but if we don’t get our sh#t together collectively he is going to go down as a footnote, assuming there is anyone left to write it down. And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.

If I may be permitted the sin attempting to be hopeful in the midst of this nightmare, there is some small possibility that we could come out ahead on the climate at the end of this. The perils of being dependent on petro dictators are now so unavoidably obvious it might get the U.S./European nuclear power industry back in business. And nuclear in a big way is the only path to not cooking the planet.

Edited April 22, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[LongLeftFlank]

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

I shall pass over all their 'Alternative Facts' around the will and condition of Russia and the Russian forces and present only their view of what is happening to the Ukrainian forces on the ground.

Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.

THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 

1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles

This is both due to combat losses and logistical/fuel bite.

1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.

1.2 A huge portion of UA mechanised forces abandoned its AFVs and artillery under heavy RA attack in the first week of hostilities, becoming pure infantry formations. 

1.3 UA is largely using passenger vehicles for transport and supply. Priority for remaining army transport has gone to keeping its dwindling artillery arm in the field.

1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.

2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:

2.1  Only 1/3 of Ukraine's gas stations are still open. The civilian economy is in rapid decline and supply chains are breaking down, especially outside the large cities.

2.2 Ukraine no longer has any functioning refineries. Tank farms have also been hard hit.

2.3 Fuels must be trucked to the front in civilian tankers after being railed in from abroad at the expense of other cargo. Tankers cannot reach Odessa and the Rumanians have not been overly cooperative.

3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

3.2 Clever video editing makes Ukrainian missiles and artillery look far more accurate and deadly than they are. In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT. Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.

3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.

3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones and almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.

3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.

4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.

4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.

4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.

4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.

4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).

****

Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

 

Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....

Why?  I mean we do know almost all of this is just stick your head in the sand BS.  What's the value add of even entertaining it?  Bored?

What I am curious about is what the Russian spin is on NATO these days.  We aren't even giving Ukraine the best of what we have in our arsenal, but they are beating the Russian army and sank one of their capital ships.  I wonder if Russians have any idea just how outmatched they are by NATO or are they still thinking they could take NATO if (reasons)

Edited April 22, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

I shall pass over all their 'Alternative Facts' around the will and condition of Russia and the Russian forces and present only their view of what is happening to the Ukrainian forces on the ground.

Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.

THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 

1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles

This is both due to combat losses and logistical/fuel bite.

1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.

1.2 A huge portion of UA mechanised forces abandoned its AFVs and artillery under heavy RA attack in the first week of hostilities, becoming pure infantry formations. 

1.3 UA is largely using passenger vehicles for transport and supply. Priority for remaining army transport has gone to keeping its dwindling artillery arm in the field.

1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.

2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:

2.1  Only 1/3 of Ukraine's gas stations are still open. The civilian economy is in rapid decline and supply chains are breaking down, especially outside the large cities.

2.2 Ukraine no longer has any functioning refineries. Tank farms have also been hard hit.

2.3 Fuels must be trucked to the front in civilian tankers after being railed in from abroad at the expense of other cargo. Tankers cannot reach Odessa and the Rumanians have not been overly cooperative.

3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

3.2 Clever video editing makes Ukrainian missiles and artillery look far more accurate and deadly than they are. In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT. Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.

3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.

3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones and almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.

3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.

4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.

4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.

4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.

4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.

4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).

****

Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....

That all sounds pretty sound and plausible to me.  It's fortunate that RA is (so far) unable to do anything about it.  Nice summary of the issues UA probably facing. 

I think UA has taken terrible losses, but that it's been able to make those numbers good w very motivated replacements, though not usually as experienced as the losses.  And they get to play mostly defense, which w ATGMs is easier relative to trying to attack, especially w the mud. 

[danfrodo]

I think UA are facing very serious issues all over the place.  Fortunately the issues aren't causing collapse while RA is grinding itself into the mud. 

(anyone ever read Joe Abercrombie? "back to the mud")

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Here is a longer YouTube clip for the T-72B3M hitting a mine in Mariupol.  Can pretty clearly see a TM-62 mine in the path of the left track in the view from the camera on the tank right before it fires its gun.  Then it reverses straight back unspooling the left track before turning sideways, probably immobilized, at which point the crew bails.

What I'm trying to figure out is how this fits in with the BTR-82.  Seems this was the first action, then the BTR went forward, hit another mine, then a second T-72 collected the BTR?

You can see this all happened in the same space as there's a distinctive damaged tree in all these videos.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

And if that wasn’t hilarious enough we have climate impacts coming straight at us.

Yes, coal and uranium are now attractive alternatives compared with Russian oil and gas. Live in a country with plenty of coal and uranium. On the end of the day money governs the world as the Germans say, in German it rhymes. Run your energy out of your local resources. 

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

It is good to know what the other side is spouting off so you can be prepared for it.  Just gave a Ukraine talk locally and I had someone listen to me lay out the case for this war being in the making since the 9th Century and at the end a woman asked me, almost verbatim, if this would have happened if we didn't have a "spineless" President.  I said it would, she told me that's not what Glenn Beck and a host of other right wing nutjobs told her.  They told her that Putin would not have dared to attack if Trump were president. 

Because I have heard this sort of BS before, I was able to calmly and politely draw her back to some of the apolitical facts I presented.  To which she stormed off.  Had I not heard this MAGA talking point before I might have stumbled and not had a ready, non-political response.

(PS, for the politically sensitive of you out there I'm simply repeating what happened to me a couple of hours ago in a public forum.  If a left wing nut job had said something about making love and not war I'd be mentioning that person here instead).

Anyhoo...

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.

THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 

1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles

 

As with most rational sounding talking points, there is truth to some of this.  Ukraine abandoned a lot of vehicles in the first days of the units that were forward deployed.  However, for that very reason most of Ukraine's mech forces were NOT AT THE FRONT.  So even if Ukraine lost 100% of all vehicles at the front, but it was only 20% of their entire stock of vehicles, that means 80% remain.

This viewpoint also seems to conveniently miss the point that Russia has lost a ton of vehicles and they were on the attack.  So if losing vehicles is a sign of defeat, boy howdy the Russians look bad.

Yup, Ukraine has lost rear facilities.  Russia, on the other hand, has plenty in the rear.  What Russia lacks, however, is vehicles to fix since they left them all in Ukraine.  After Ukraine sorts out its facilities it will have plenty of work to do while Russian tank workers are sitting at home laid off because there's no work for them.

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:

 

The economic indicators are all low because Russia has ruined roughly 30% of the country's industrial capacity.  The rest of the economy seems to be doing OK, considering.

Again, this sidesteps the fact that Russia's economy has also suffered immensely already and, unlike Ukraine's decline, is going to last long after the war.

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

Had to highlight this one just say at least Ukrainian fire discipline problems happen in combat, whereas Russians have difficulty showing fire discipline against empty buildings outside of an active combat zone.  Exhibit A -> Kadyrov's TikTok warriors.

Heh... couldn't resist a dig.

The rest of this is either nonsense or minor compared to the problems Russians have.  I especially liked the fact that Ukraine is having difficulty using NATO standard ammo (why would they?) for weapons that haven't yet been deployed in combat.  I mean, talk about nonsensical.

This next one I feel like having fun with point by point:

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.

4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.

If that is their definition of decimation, then Russia's forces have been slaughtered to the point that its army won't be back into prewar condition until Feb 2023.  And even then, who would care... they'd just be as sucky as they are today!

Also side steps the fact that Ukraine has had low enough losses that they can keep their units at the front, whereas Russia's have had to go back home in many cases.  Which means Ukraine is obviously able to effectively replace its losses in place, which is saying something about the quantity and quality of replacements.

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.

This is just funny.  Ukraine has consistently turned down men without previous combat experience.  Those turned away are trying to bribe their way into slots.  Russian mutinies, on the other hand, are real.

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.

See previous point that UA units stay in the line, Russian ones are withdrawn back to Russia.  That tells the story right there.  Also, Russia graduated its class of officers this year early because of shortages.  And more, of course.

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.

No signs that Ukraine's logistics are in trouble.  Russia's, on the other hand, has shown "room for improvement"

22 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).

Well, we know that in some places the population has been compliant.  True.  But we also know that Russia isn't murdering Ukrainians in the south because they're happy Russians came to town.

Partisan activity is really just starting to gain steam and there's no analog behind the Ukrainian lines, so any partisan activity is a net benefit.

There, I think I did this justice

The point of all this is that, like so many pro-Russian lines of argument, there often is a nugget of truth but it is taken out of context and there is no application of the same point to Russia's reality.  Especially in cases where the Russian reality is worse.

Typical Russian "analysis".

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, sburke said:

Why?  I mean we do know almost all of this is just stick your head in the sand BS.  What's the value add of even entertaining it?  Bored?

So, merely cuz lying orcs/RTtrolls, feeding the same 5 loons (Ritter, Helmer, MoonofAB, Saker, etc.) in turn cited endlessly by Western CT addicts at both ends of the political horseshoe.

...it necessarily follows that Ukraine cannot possibly be encountering critical shortages of: 

1. vehicles

2. fuels

3. ammo

4. skilled manpower?

....Hmm, talk about sticking one's head in the sand. And you're about the last person on here I expected to hear this from.

I am not asking anyone to prove a negative here. I am just trying to pierce the protective fog the UA has brilliantly wrapped around itself. 

Because I am deeply worried that letting the Russians get their breath back and dig in in place rather than continuing to keep them running around fighting fires over the next 60 days is *extremely* risky.  That's at a Sun Tzu level.  

UNLESS the ability of UA to sustain offensive operations is in fact a lot less than we believe.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

I shall pass over all their 'Alternative Facts' around the will and condition of Russia and the Russian forces and present only their view of what is happening to the Ukrainian forces on the ground.

Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.

THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 

1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles

This is both due to combat losses and logistical/fuel bite.

1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.

1.2 A huge portion of UA mechanised forces abandoned its AFVs and artillery under heavy RA attack in the first week of hostilities, becoming pure infantry formations. 

1.3 UA is largely using passenger vehicles for transport and supply. Priority for remaining army transport has gone to keeping its dwindling artillery arm in the field.

1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.

2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:

2.1  Only 1/3 of Ukraine's gas stations are still open. The civilian economy is in rapid decline and supply chains are breaking down, especially outside the large cities.

2.2 Ukraine no longer has any functioning refineries. Tank farms have also been hard hit.

2.3 Fuels must be trucked to the front in civilian tankers after being railed in from abroad at the expense of other cargo. Tankers cannot reach Odessa and the Rumanians have not been overly cooperative.

3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

3.2 Clever video editing makes Ukrainian missiles and artillery look far more accurate and deadly than they are. In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT. Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.

3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.

3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones and almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.

3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.

4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.

4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.

4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.

4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.

4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).

****

Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....

opinions are my own

Section one. The Ukrainians have lost a ton of vehicles, since they didn't lose most of the crews the generous donations from the RUSSIANS, the Poles, and the Czechs have done an excellent job of keeping them in the fight. Civilian vehicles seem to be working just fine for moving UA light infantry around. Unlike Russian leg infantry they don't instantly desert to Belarus if they get the keys to a civilian vehicle. At least the Ukrainians have vehicle repair centers to try and shoot at, which is a lot more than the Russians can say.

Section 2 The Russians systematic destruction Of Ukraines fuel infrastructure is a big problem, but it affects the army the least, because they get priority obviously, Russian warcrimes have made ABSOLUTELY sure of that. The people the fuel situation is the biggest problem for are in the Middle East and Africa. every day the war goes on and Ukrainians get less farming done is less that they are going to have to eat. But for the war that just means that more farmers figure they might as well join the army since they can't get a crop in anyway.

Section 3 Every real war in history blows through ammo at rates that stun the planners, Nato has just sent more. And no one on earth makes videos of their misses, ORYX's verified list is all you need to know about the hits.  The U.S. just promised to send as much artillery as the Ukrainians started the war with, and if they have a the sense to include a bunch of guided rounds the training hassles will work themselves out. Towed guns are just not that complicated. Ukraines private warlord problem has been a tiny fraction of my prewar expectation, and most of those private warlords are competing for postwar status by killing Russians in job lots. Azov fighting a quarter of the Russian Army to a bloody standstill in Mariupol being exhibit A. I have no clue on wether or not switchblades are jammable, but it would be the VERY first thing the Russian EW types have done right this whole war. The cruise missile are problem but the Russians seem to be running out of them.

Section 4 I am quite willing to believe that all the problems listed exist to some extent or another. But there is zero evidence to indicate that  the Ukrainians can't field every soldier they can equip, and they seem to be able to equip about two or three times as many as the Russians have. Those beautiful Nato warehouses are coming through on that front, too.  There is very little evidence the Ukrainians are pushing completely untrained people to the front. The war is eight weeks old, the new guys aren't going to have more training than that, it is a harsh business .Steve has described the reservists system in great detail, and it seems to have mostly worked.

Summary Of course the Ukrainians have problems, there is a bloody war on. However the place is absolutely crawling with both reporters and every kind of western spook and ex, and dare I say, current soldier claiming they are the ex variety. Raise your hand if your can tell a Pole, From a Ukrainian, from a Lithuanian. My guess is the special forces from all three and several other countries all over Ukraine. if there were gamebreaking problems it would be all over the news

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Because I am deeply worried that letting the Russians get their breath back and dig in in place rather than continuing to keep them running around fighting fires over the next 60 days is *extremely* risky.  That's at a Sun Tzu level.  

UNLESS the ability of UA to sustain offensive operations is in fact a lot less than we believe.

Everything is relative.  All Ukraine has to do is not collapse.  Even if all it has is light infantry running around, no vehicles or artillery at all, Russia is screwed because it doesn't have enough infantry to defend itself.

Think Combat Mission.  Would you rather have a huge map with a tiny armored force sitting in a fixed location without supporting arms available, or would you rather be a light infantry force with 2-3 times as many soldiers with Objectives of "Kill Russians" rather than "Take Terrain By X Time"?  I know I'd take the light infantry force every time.

But the Ukrainians are not going to be just light infantry.  The West is making sure of that.  Even if there's logistical challenges ahead, they can be addressed.  Inherently the Ukrainian force is not broken and that's what matters.

Russia, on the other hand, is getting to the knife's edge of another Kiev situation... risk of sudden collapse.

Steve

[Kinophile]

@LongLeftFlank's list of the RUS takes on the war doesnt sound...insane. Certain points make sense in the context of how the UA is actually fighting, e.g.:

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.

- I doubt that high. Infantry do seem to be playing a disproportionate role, to a Russian observer, but that impression is probably more due to the expression of the impact of extremely widespread man-portable ATGMs. If every second man in a UKR platoon is carrying an ATGM then they will have an outsized impact on the field. Plus, there are definitely more UKR infantry than RUS. So the UKR infantry are both visible in numbers and very tangible in their effects.

The RUS infantry does not seem to have the same level of ATGM availability. Most of their vehicle hits seem to be vehicle2vehicle, of whatever kind (afv, tank, helo, airplane). They have less infantry, proportionately, so their effects and visibility are less than the UKR ketchup bags. Or something. 

UKR are also entirely correct to not try massive counter attacks, that would just play into the RUS desire for a Mass v. Mass dick-comparing contest, but those rotten Ukies insist on keeping their tripods in their pants. So local, shallow offensives are very sensible and force conserving. 

So, 95% is ludicrous and illogical - they wouldn't be capable of anything, yet here we are with the Battle of Kiev won and the Battle of Izium seeming to be a still-born rat-baby. Joke's on RUS if a supposedly 95% infantry army is able to to that to Glorious Mother Russia Army of Happy Sister-****ing Zombies. So it feels like wishful thinking, seizing on the most visibly murderous aspect of their relentless foe and trying to spin it as a negative. SAD!

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.

This bit about tank repair facilities being hit makes sense in the context that UKR are sending wagons to Czech Republic for repair. 

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

The low level of militia training would lend to fire indiscipline, seems legit. Plus some vids weve seen show not great usage of ATGMs in ambushes - way too close, no proper kill zone, no visible plan other than KILL TANK NOW. That translates into short lived fire teams, along with their gear and extra ATGMS, which some vids have very vividly shown. But that for sure was early int he war.I dont see those kind of mistakes anymore...

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT.

Bull****. Stupid wishful thinking. 

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.

Again, inflation of an existing "issue". For sure Stugna is maybe not as a effective as Javelin, but its relative. The J's fire & forget is fantastic; the stugna's separation of Operator and launcher is also very nice. Javs hit from the top, so have a very high kill rate (see pathetic whining above) but the stugna does not have as steep a final attack angle, giving a chance for it to fail due to AoA, ERA, armor, etc.  I suspect the number is more like 1-2 stugnas per MBT, certainly not 5.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.

Seems excessive. Are UKR artillery corp really that unable to learn new tricks, under national existential threat? Also NATO stuff is designed to be (relatively) straightforward to explain, train and use. 

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones - 

Maaaaaayyybeeee. I'd love to hear more. But neeeeeaaaahhhhhhhh......

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

-almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.

I'm curious about this. Is UA getting fresh deliveries? Its a very effective platform but certainly vulnerable.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its [VERY LIMITED] cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.

And even more limited now with missile manufacturing facilities going pop-pop like bubble wrap. Still, I could see truth in a lot of this paragraph. Not crazy.

Thanks @LongLeftFlank !

But alas, we need  a @Haiduk or similar to refute/confirm/snort derisively.

Edited April 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

Here's another way to address Russian views for optimism...

NATO outspends Russia militarily by a HUGE margin and has a proven capability of putting out stuff that is vastly superior to Russian equivalents (when there is even such a thing as equivalent).  The West also has far fewer, and no significant, supply chain issues while Russia, on the other hand, is having to shut down facilities due to parts shortages.

Russia keeps saying it is effectively fighting NATO now.  Therefore, logically, Russia can't win this war because NATO not only has more stuff, but it has better stuff and the ability to keep making more of that stuff.  Last time I checked, the force with more and better has a distinct advantage.  Especially when said side is obviously vastly more motivated to fight than the other.

Of course I could just point to the plain as day battlefield reality... but hey, that's just rubbing salt in the wound

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW report from today has, as always, useful things.  This one caught my eye right away as we were just discussing this very point:

Quote

As with Russian operations elsewhere in Ukraine, reporting on numbers of BTGs without additional context and analysis of the combat power of these units is not a useful evaluation of Russian forces.

Also this:

Quote

Russian forces continued assaults on Ukrainian positions around Izyum but did not secure any territorial gains in the past 24 hours. Russian forces may be attempting to probe Ukrainian defensive positions around Izyum prior to larger offensive operations but remain largely road-bound and unlikely to secure any major breakthroughs.

For the most part the Izyum was the only significant military activity by the Russians as noted by ISW.  Noticeably lighter than since Easter.  This seems consistent with other reporting.  Which means either my call earlier in the day (i.e. "the offensive got cancelled") is accurate, or Russia is doing something out of the ordinary due to logic that isn't obvious to me.

Whatever the case might be, something is different today than the previous 4 days.  Different is often a sign of change.  I've plopped down my guess ("the offensive got cancelled"), though I don't rule out other possibilities including a temporary pause for some reason (shortage of ammo, ground conditions, etc.).

We'll know better tomorrow.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another great view of Russians doing their thing (including #2).  Look at one of the groups setting up as if they are gong to have a tea party.  White chairs really help the drone operators with target identifications, right?  There's only a little bit of actual strikes and no details of effectiveness.

 

[sross112]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

OK team. I am going to join @Erwinin the Devil's Advocate space here.  I have now spent some time browsing the 'pro-Russian' sites (and I feel like I need a shower) -- so you don't have to.

I shall pass over all their 'Alternative Facts' around the will and condition of Russia and the Russian forces and present only their view of what is happening to the Ukrainian forces on the ground.

Fact based refutations preferred, please. Spluttering invective about 'lying Orcs' is of no practical use here.

THESIS:  In spite of a Western media propaganda campaign and some notable Russian failures, Russia is methodically degrading Ukraine’s military capacity. 

1. Ukraine is running out of AFVs and other vehicles

This is both due to combat losses and logistical/fuel bite.

1.1  UA is now 95% a leg infantry army, including new militia formations. While Ukraine spins this as an innovation, such forces are capable of only shallow local attacks.

1.2 A huge portion of UA mechanised forces abandoned its AFVs and artillery under heavy RA attack in the first week of hostilities, becoming pure infantry formations. 

1.3 UA is largely using passenger vehicles for transport and supply. Priority for remaining army transport has gone to keeping its dwindling artillery arm in the field.

1.4 Russia has taken out most repair facilities in East Ukraine. Damaged vehicles must be shipped long distances, or abroad, to be repaired and refit. Russian videos show UA vehicles that have been cannibalized for parts and then abandoned.

2. Ukraine is running out of fuels and POL:

2.1  Only 1/3 of Ukraine's gas stations are still open. The civilian economy is in rapid decline and supply chains are breaking down, especially outside the large cities.

2.2 Ukraine no longer has any functioning refineries. Tank farms have also been hard hit.

2.3 Fuels must be trucked to the front in civilian tankers after being railed in from abroad at the expense of other cargo. Tankers cannot reach Odessa and the Rumanians have not been overly cooperative.

3. Ukraine is running short of weapons and ammo

3.1  UA is consuming weapons in a week that the US thought would last them a month. In general, its militia troops have very poor fire discipline in spite of their high enthusiasm.

3.2 Clever video editing makes Ukrainian missiles and artillery look far more accurate and deadly than they are. In fact, several Javelin hits are needed to take out a MBT. Stugna has only a 1 in 5 hit rate and its kill rate vs. MBTs is very poor.

3.3 Western heavy artillery, with unfamiliar calibres and loads, is proving very hard for even experienced UA gunners to deploy and use effectively.

3.4  Russia seems able to jam Switchblade drones and almost no Bayraktars remain; the UA reserves them only for strategic missions like the one against Moskva.

3.5  Russia has been making very effective use of its cruise missile assets, destroying key facilities and arms stocks. It has extremely good humint from sources inside Ukraine. An entire month's supply of newly arrived Western anti-tank weapons was recently destroyed in missile strikes on 3 sites in Lvov. UA attempts to disperse these assets has thrown its logistics situation even deeper into chaos.

3.6  Local authorities (warlords) have been diverting some of the best Western weapons to equip their own militias and private armies, and also selling them on the black market.

4. Ukraine is running out of capable soldiers.

4.1 About 10% of the UA standing army on day 1 have been lost (dead/ invalided/ captured). That is a 'decimation' of its most experienced and skilled cadre, and will take as much as a year to bring back to its Feb 2022 condition.

4.2 Widespread draft evasion has occurred, especially in the Russian speaking east and also among urban educated youth. Only a few thousand Ukrainian expatriates have returned to serve, and the ballyhooed wave of Western volunteers has not materialised in meaningful numbers.

4.3  UA replacements are being sent into action with very little training. Specialists and skilled technicians are in critically short supply and veteran cadre are on the front lines, not training newcomers.

4.4 After nearly 60 days, the UA irregular infantry forces' ability to live off the land (local people and their food) is running down rapidly.  Their amateur, improvised logistical chains are totally inadeqate.

4.5  In spite of UA having years to prepare stay behind forces, in the southern oblasts there have been very few incidents of partisan activity or sabotage. This indicates  general acquiescence by the local population, which in large part has not evacuated (excepting active combat zones).

****

Again, for avoidance of doubt I make no endorsement whatsoever of the above, so don't freekin' @ me.....

I can see where they would be able to get some of their views. It is all about perspective. I'm sure the vast majority of information they receive in Russia is going to be positive towards the RA.

A lot of what is said could be directly derived from the incidents around Kherson early on. Yep, the UA got caught on maneuvers and lost a lot of equipment. Nope, the TD failed to form and they haven't had nearly as many problems with TD forces down there. So basically they are able to cherry pick events and then apply them to the overall situation, which we know to be incorrect. But they can point to the south as an example, keep their blinders on and cling to that.

Some of the other points make sense, like running low on arty ammo. I've wondered what kind of stocks they had for awhile now and it would make sense that they have ran through theirs and whatever their neighbors can give. It also lines up nicely with the large amounts of western arty being delivered. I'm sure someone put a pencil to paper and said they had X days at sustained rates and then they were in trouble. Maybe that is where the Leo's come from too. Not that the UA is running out of tanks, but are they running out of ammo? If they are get a weapon system in there that the west can supply from stocks that aren't in use anymore but are still effective. 

I'm wondering if about week 2 all the staff geeks put forth a report on stuff like this and what we are seeing isn't a planned sequence of donations. I think most people look at it and see it as kind of random, but is it? I could see a couple plane loads of UA prior service reservists flying to Oklahoma 6 weeks ago for training on the M777's that are being delivered now. Those are advanced pieces with integrated computers and such so it isn't like you can just swap out the crew from an old D52. If we see a HIMARS fire within the next couple weeks then it would have had to have happened. I wouldn't be surprised if there are a substantial number on UA reservists in western nations being trained up on other things as well. I think someone said there was rumor of UA pilots in the UK doing work ups on the Eurofighter. Who knows what other weapon systems are going to be delivered over the course of the next weeks and months and the more high tech the more lead time is needed for crew training.