How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good, this guy is back from a short vacation, though he got sick so his voice is bad.  He does very good military summaries at the end of each day, though I don't know how the analysis is made (he always mentions "we").  However, I've been following him for weeks now and haven't found anything to object to.

This posting covers the last three days.  He's going to resume regular updates on Friday:

 

Wait - is that Irish volunteers in the north of Kharkiv?

I didn't think we had that many UKR back home...

[LongLeftFlank]

If only the Mariupol defenders weren't at risk of being wiped out....

But as I read the other thread and studied this map

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/day_56_Pryazovia-Frontline.png

1.  it appears that the Russian attacks along the entire 'land bridge' front east of Kherson, including Zaporozhe area are more or less ineffectual (and yes, the bar is not high). Indicating that the troops are second rate.

2. While down in Azovstalingrad they are not likely pushing very hard, given ambushes, sniping, booby traps, etc. from elite troops with nothing to lose. So they are simply trying to bomb them out or use 125mm tank rounds, and that isn't enough, as all of us who have played CM street fights know well. Some units including Spetsnaz have refused to play, so they are way short assault infantry.

3. Soooo, I am wondering whether once the RA has fully committed to its attacks on Slovyansk, the UA hits -- what is it, 150 MRD? BLAM!!!! right in the teeth, with special attention to killing its artillery. Collapse of that formation (1 of its regiments is engaged in Mariupol) could divide the Russian armies in two and open the roads to Melitopol and Mariupol.

Saving the 'Azov SS' would be pretty hard for Putin to explain away to the warmongering babushkas.... 

4. I mean, that's only if the UA isn't going with the @The_Capt's plan of cutting off the Operation MARS 'spearheads' as they wallow in front of Slovyansk. As Napoleon said, destroy the enemy army first and the rest takes care of itself....

/Armchair generaling

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Wait - is that Irish volunteers in the north of Kharkiv?

I didn't think we had that many UKR back home...

Huh, that's what it looks like!  Now that you point it out, it's been on the strategic overview map for the last few updates. 

I've not heard him talk about Irish Volunteers before, but he's not wrong.  There is a unit there and it moved down from Kiev recently.  Small unit (squad sized) by the looks of it.  Attached to a TD Battalion:

This article is from April 4th:

https://extra.ie/2022/04/04/news/irish-ukrainian-volunteers-ukraine

And a little before that with a video:

https://extra.ie/2022/03/28/news/irish-volunteers-ukraine-images

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If only the Mariupol defenders weren't at risk of being wiped out....

But as I read the other thread and studied this map

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/day_56_Pryazovia-Frontline.png

1.  it appears that the Russian attacks along the entire 'land bridge' front east of Kherson, including Zaporozhe area are more or less ineffectual (and yes, the bar is not high). Indicating that the troops are second rate.

2. While down in Azovstalingrad they are not likely pushing very hard, given ambushes, sniping, booby traps, etc. from elite troops with nothing to lose. So they are simply trying to bomb them out or use 125mm tank rounds, and that isn't enough, as all of us who have played CM street fights know well. Some units including Spetsnaz have refused to play, so they are way short assault infantry.

3. Soooo, I am wondering whether once the RA has fully committed to its attacks on Slovyansk, the UA hits -- what is it, 150 MRD? BLAM!!!! right in the teeth, with special attention to killing its artillery. Collapse of that formation (1 of its regiments is engaged in Mariupol) could divide the Russian armies in two and open the roads to Melitopol and Mariupol.

 

 

 

I am sure that Ukraine is waiting for the Russians to fully commit to the big offensive and will hit back in select places to, at the very least, throw off the attacker's by diverting resources to any threatened points.  Basically, the mirror image of what Russia is doing now to throw off Ukraine's defenses.  This is pretty standard stuff, so the only reason it wouldn't happen is if Ukraine is stretched too thin.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Hah, thanks! Loving the Laois accent. Ah well, we all have our particular cross...

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, my quick take on where things are at with the offensive.

Russia is still going by Soviet playbook to weaken the lines, try to get Ukraine to commit reserves, and look for weaknesses.  I do think they've made some real attempts at breakthroughs here and there, but the primary force is still not committed.

In reading today's ISW report I realized there is an added benefit to letting this phase play out for a couple of days.  It allowed them to get the offensive started and buy some time to prepare the main force all at the same time.  There are reports that another 4 BTGs arrived last night from the far eastern provinces, for example.  Might be a decent practical way to handle the alleged time pressure to have this all wrapped up in a couple of weeks, yet not rush the main forces into combat before the basic logistics and replacements are taken care of.

It doesn't really change anything as far as I can see, but it does look to benefit Russian plans.  Well, except this also gives Ukraine an opportunity to better prepare to disrupt the main attack when it happens.  Though the counter to that is Ukraine would likely be doing that sort of thing anyway.

Steve

I am not sure I am buying this.  They are depleting artillery & rocket stocks and taking losses and burning up supplies.  All of these resources could be used en masse for an attack that might actually yield  something operational. Instead they just have less to work with next week. 

[dan/california]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am not sure I am buying this.  They are depleting artillery & rocket stocks and taking losses and burning up supplies.  All of these resources could be used en masse for an attack that might actually yield  something operational. Instead they just have less to work with next week. 

There are a lot of factors we don't know that determine if waiting a week helps, or hurts one side of the other. Time lets the Russians pull in the last remnants of their army that are actually capable of operations.  Time lets more NATO precision go bang get all the way forward to the Donbas for the Ukrainians. Time lets the Ukrainians dig ever more entrenchments everywhere, especially in fall back positions. Both sides are suffering attritional losses every day, and burning artillery ammo every day. Neither side is exactly publishing their artillery ammo on hand. Time lets the Russians build more forward logistical reserves, and they clearly need it as far foward as they can get it,  although their is a large penalty for getting TOO far forward. Time lets the Ukrainian reserves that have been working up since the second or third day of the war start showing up at the front. My GUESS is that time is better for the Ukrainians. But all that is a guess. Ukr and Nato General staff probably have a much BETTER guess. I am assuming the Russians are one step above staggering around in the dark until they prove otherwise, maybe one step BELOW staggering around in the dark, now that I think about it. But a very large dinosaur staggering around in the dark is still quite dangerous.

 

As an aside a competent military, run by a competent dictator would cancel the bleeping parade, and put those troops on a train to the Donbas tonight. Of course there is zero evidence for competence anywhere on the Russian side. Well, unless you looting, rape, murdering civilians, and other assorted war crimes. I suppose Putin might also be at some risk of coup if he ordered his praetorian guard to go get shot at.

Edited April 21, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[Battlefront.com]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I am not sure I am buying this.  They are depleting artillery & rocket stocks and taking losses and burning up supplies.  All of these resources could be used en masse for an attack that might actually yield  something operational. Instead they just have less to work with next week. 

This presumes that they don't have more shells in stock for the next phase.  As for the wasted bodies, they have been doing that CONSTANTLY along this front for 8 weeks now, which kinda means what we're seeing isn't really anything new.  The intensity might be, but it's not like this was a quiet sector of front that they suddenly started hitting.  At some point they are going to run out of bodies or have a revolt to deal with, but it seems they have enough new bodies for this attack.

Many experts figured that the Russians would try this new offensive the old way.  Which makes sense because the previous way did kinda suck   It makes far more sense that the Russians would go back to a tried and true method of war than either repeat what didn't work or try something completely new.

So far we're seeing now is classic WW2 style Soviet offensive doctrine... lay the enemy's frontline positions to waste with artillery and probing attacks, then drive over the corpses in the weakest points, disrupt the lines, then unleash the main force.  This is exactly what they did not do with the initial offensive and many think that was their primary mistake (I think it was attacking at all, but hey... that's a dead horse that doesn't need any more beating!).

Now, I'm not saying this will work or that it's the best prescription for getting Putin this all wrapped up according to his timeframe.  What I'm saying is that's likely what they are attempting to do.

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This presumes that they don't have more shells in stock for the next phase.  As for the wasted bodies, they have been doing that CONSTANTLY along this front for 8 weeks now.  Their solution is to just round up more fodder and feed them in.  At some point they are going to run out or have a revolt to deal with, but it seems they have enough new bodies for this attack.

Many experts figured that the Russians would try this new offensive the old way.  Which makes sense because the previous way did kinda suck   It makes far more sense that the Russians would go back to a tried and true method of war than either repeat what didn't work or try something completely new.

So far we're seeing now is classic WW2 style Soviet offensive doctrine... lay the enemy's frontline positions to waste with artillery and probing attacks, then drive over the corpses in the weakest points, disrupt the lines, then unleash the main force.  This is exactly what they did not do with the initial offensive and many think that was their primary mistake (I think it was attacking at all, but hey... that's a dead horse that doesn't need any more beating!).

Now, I'm not saying this will work or that it's the best prescription for getting Putin this all wrapped up according to his timeframe.  What I'm saying is that's likely what they are attempting to do.

Steve

yeah, that makes sense.  But RA will still be facing a mobile defense in depth, in good defensive terrain, w mud.   A breakthrough seems like it would just mean they are coming up to the next obstacle.  Even if they reach the two big cities there, would they have enough to take or even surround them?

Well, I guess we're gonna find out

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

At some point they are going to run out of bodies or have a revolt to deal with, but it seems they have enough new bodies for this attack.

The Russians think they have enough willing bodies to keep using them like ammunition. They will be quite sorry if a large of chunk of those bodies suddenly decide they are less scared of their officers than they are of the Ukrainian army. It is worth pointing out that there is very little left that is worth looting in the Donbas, at least as compared tho Kyiv and its suburbs, so that is one less motivation to drive past a couple of dozen burning wrecks on the way to your own date with an ATGM.

Edited April 21, 2022 by dan/california

[womble]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

This presumes that they don't have more shells in stock for the next phase

They may have more dumb iron laid up, but there was a graph earlier of missile attacks that showed they'd been stockpiling for the beginning of their "large preparatory probe" for a good while, and suggests that they don't have more of those types until more arrive from the factory next week. If the count is accurate and the underlying assumptions good, that makes me think that the surge in activity the last few days really is the shock start of the major offensive, since you'd want to shoot that bolt at the beginning of your phase of maximum effort.

Or perhaps missiles aren't a good indicator.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, womble said:

Or perhaps missiles aren't a good indicator.

In this case, they are not.  Russia is going old school Soviet on Ukraine's butt right now, and all that is needed are things that go boom.  HE artillery, HE rockets, and HE bombs from planes.  Smart weapons didn't exist in Soviet days so it would actually take some intelligence and creativity to figure out how to fit it in now.

As was stated earlier, they probably have had time to find all the aging Soviet warehouses full of munitions they thought they'd never need, get them on trains, and get them to the theater.  This is maybe one reason for the last few weeks of relative calm.

I'm wondering how their stocks of HE rockets is doing. My guess is these don't store as well as regular artillery shells and powder charges, which could mean if they dig way down they might be pulling out ones that fizzle instead of launch.

Steve

[dan/california]

I realize that the Russians don't have nearly enough men to cover their frontage. But how in the bleep can they have so little coverage and communications that the UKR can just casually assess what is and isn't worth taking, instead of burning all of it in a very large hurry?

Edited April 21, 2022 by dan/california

[LongLeftFlank]

1. Entirely biased source, but also entirely believable....

2. Also, this Chinese analyst does a rough calc of RU modern tank losses (using Oryx as of early April):

3.  I think this has been posted before (hundreds of pages back) but it's a good interactive map tool, mapping RA formation positions to regiment level.  Current to 18 April....

https://www.uawardata.com/

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

Intercepted call and translation.  No context for where/when this was, but yet more evidence that everything is totally fooked within the Russian chain of command and logistics:

 

[Fenris]

Finnish parliament have started to discuss NATO membership.

At this stage it sounds like most are in favour.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/20/finland-mps-debate-whether-to-join-nato

Here's a tweet about it

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Fenris

[Fenris]

More crowd sourced intel...

 

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am sure that Ukraine is waiting for the Russians to fully commit to the big offensive and will hit back in select places to, at the very least, throw off the attacker's by diverting resources to any threatened points.  Basically, the mirror image of what Russia is doing now to throw off Ukraine's defenses.  This is pretty standard stuff, so the only reason it wouldn't happen is if Ukraine is stretched too thin.

Steve

At the very least.

Let's say UA can bring 2 mobile brigades and rip open the rotten idle forces (1-2 regiments) shielding the Mariupol siege.  Revisiting the March battlefields around Volnovakha. Well known turf, in other words.

 

1.  With their 'land bridge' threatened with being cut in half, I can't see the Russians being able to respond using their remaining mobile combat power around Kherson. At least not in finite time.  And by all accounts, Donetsk and Lukhansk are tapped out for men who can hold rifles.  The main RA force concentrations are a long way away, and otherwise engaged.

In the Sun Tzu spirit, it seems like a great place to attack in that it truly taxes the enemy's ability to respond, and yet he must.

2.  So the battered RA forces fighting in Mariupol will need to disengage and turn about, like Caesar at Alesia, to defend their LOCs. In effect, that suspends the siege.

3.  'Lifting the siege' is a powerful epic tale that commands the attention of both the world and Russia. Consider Leningrad.

That fact can't be hidden, can't be respun. The whole 'denazification' meme unravels.

.....

Stories! I can't believe I'm quoting Daily Kos, but I guess wartime makes for strange bedfellows: 

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/19/2092926/-Why-Does-This-War-Get-Sympathy-While-Other-Conflicts-Do-Not

Why are people more fired up about Ukraine than, say, Syria? 

It’s because, well, Syria is a civil war, and civil wars can often get fuzzy, especially if people aren’t familiar with the country.....There’s no simple good guy and bad guy. It’s not a simple story to tell.

[several paragraphs on why human beings respond to stories, not 'facts']

1. Putin’s mistake was screwing up an existing, fuzzy plot. The status of Crimea, while a land grab, had some uncertainty.....  [but] the obvious attempt not to merely secure their puppet states in the Donbass but to take over the whole country, that simplified the story.

2. It wasn’t a civil war. It wasn’t a conflict over disputed territory. It was a bully attacking someone smaller. It became the story of the evil empire.... And out of that came the outnumbered few willing to stand and say no, the underdogs who, despite all the odds apparently against them, who were holding out. The men and women taking up arms to defend their freedom.

That is an epic story.

But then came the atrocities, the murders, the outright calls for genocide. This wasn’t just the story of the underdog anymore, this was the story of good versus evil. 

I guess you get the drift.

And the Story matters in Russia too. Don't get too spun up in that whole 'soulless orcs' meme. No, they're people, even though many are acting abominably, and most are gloomily going along because it's too inconvenient to disbelieve the Story their leaders are telling.

So in this case, the new Story -- total and irremediable defeat of the entire 'Denazification' Project -- needs to be indisputable enough to break through the layers of spin, denial and 'you'll be sorry, Russian bear ees only just getting started' chest beating.

Breaking in and relieving the Mariupol siege, against all hope -- even if it isn't an actual 'lifting' of the siege for some time yet -- tells that story. I would say, even better than the progressive and ongoing bleed out of the current Grand Offensive.  The world is starting to get jaded at more pictures of burning tanks.

And the Story you DON'T want deluded Russians to start grasping at is that Our Boys were defeated (heroically) only because they were betrayed! stabbed in the back!  by corrupt boyars (cryptonazis and probably, ahem, 'Khazars') who filched the fuel or whatever. No, Good Tsar Vlad needs to own this defeat, good and hard.  Tsushima hard.

****

Taking it back to military ways-and-means, such a bold stroke may be worth tasking a brigade or two, with some of the armour Ukraine has been husbanding.  I think the UA 53rd has been manning that front for a long time, and knows the ground very very well.

Let's say this UA incursion can essentially destroy, or rout, the 2 'Guards' regiments on the front and retake Volnovakha, with leg infantry moving well beyond, perhaps to the Mariupol outskirts....

Counterattacking would require the full efforts of the RA Mariupol ground forces -- badly depleted and not really 'geared' by now to resume open country warfare -- plus hasty diversion of RA units already manning frontage to the west.  There's nothing else handy, unless they can airlift a VDV unit in or sumfink.... which taps whatever strategic reserves they have left.

Or else beg Kadyrov and his pudgy son to leave the halal buffet and actually do some fighting for a change.

....Plus diversion of overstrained RA air power from their aforementioned Not-So-Grand Offensive. They'd need to either redeploy A/C to airbases in Crimea/Rostov area, or else skirt a long and increasingly deadly Ukrainian front / air defence zone.

Edited April 21, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[G.I. Joe]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every time I see this guy and his TikTockers I realize how absolutely pathetic the traditional machismo mindset is.  Russians look at this crap and see strength?  Well, I look at this and see a guy with a very small penis.

Steve

I see what the bad guy would look like if Bill Murray ever decides to make Stripes II...I'm sure an EM50A3 could take on those SUVs.

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by DesertFox

[chuckdyke]

Black humor this one. A Russian Flying Tank which can't be destroyed. Here it is kind of destroyed. Even the onboard computer is crashed. Computers can crash twice. 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Der Zeitgeist]

I guess the question for the Azovstal siege is now how many troops Russia can really pull from there without weakening the siege so much that UA units could conduct raids or breakout attempts.

[Der Zeitgeist]

10 hours ago, Kraft said:

The green hawkish position has really surprised me. I would have assumed them to be the last ones (based on their pre-invasion stance on anything weapon related) to semi-stand up against what ever redherring, confusion psyops Scholz is running.

Nah, the German Greens always had a hard stance vs. Putin. It's part of their value-based foreign policy outlook, drawing a clear line vs. autocratic regimes.

What is new for them is the willingness to use or at least supply military power in pursuit of that policy. 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[Haiduk]

Turkish body armor ceramic plate, soldier survived

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Thomm]

Regarding: "Putin raises the white flag on Azovstal. "

I copy this from an Austrian newspaper forum (Der Standard), because it makes me giggle, unfortunately only in German:

 

"Meanwhile im Führerbunker irgendwo im Ural:

DAS WAR EIN BEFÄÄÄÄHL! DER ANGRIFF AUF AZOVSTAL WAR EIN BEFÄÄÄÄÄHL!"

 

Anyway, is there any chance that Ukraine troops can reach Mariupol soon enough to make a difference?

Best regards
Thomm