How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Every time I see this guy and his TikTockers I realize how absolutely pathetic the traditional machismo mindset is.  Russians look at this crap and see strength?  Well, I look at this and see a guy with a very small penis.

Steve

I just figured this was the Chechen auto dealership commercial.  Maybe this guy can join that tan your testicles movement.

[Combatintman]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is all making sense.

OK, so that "typical" BTG chart we're all familiar with is likely not typical.  It is the augmented 1st BTG (primary) for each Regiment. 2nd and 3rd BTGs would not have the recon element.  What else might be limited to the 1st BTG?

Steve

 

Its an interesting question for which a lot of the variables are unknown - the primary one being the number of contract soldiers in any given formation.  There is also the danger of applying too much logic to the problem given the absence of logic in much of what Russia has done to date with its ground forces.

In an ideal world you task-organize to .... erm ... task so the composition of a task-organised battlegroup depends on its mission and the area it will operate in.  The simple example being that if 1st BTG needs to cross a river then it should get the available bridging assets chopped to it, whereas if 2nd BTG needs to assault a prepared defensive position then it would probably be infantry heavy, get a reasonable slice of gunnery and a lot of breaching assets like mine clearing vehicles.  I'm not convinced that this is happening based on what we heard a few weeks back about there being no overall Land Component Commander and for the initial stages of the operation, the divisional commanders were pretty much told to do their own thing so long as that involved pushing into Ukraine.  I'll maybe give it some thought tomorrow.

[Harmon Rabb]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Maybe you prefer Vladimir Solovyov. He's been perfecting his casual WW3 threatening, menacing arms-crossed-with-Apple-Watch-style recently.

 

"We'll be grinding up NATO's war machine"

"When this operation concludes NATO Will have to ask itself. Do we have what we need to defend ourselves?"

Replace NATO with Russia and Apple watch man made some fair points.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, womble said:

Do these people have no conception of how stupid they look and sound? Apparently not. Drank their own Kool-Aid, the lot of 'em. Just a shame they have to take so many people along for the ride.

I think part of the problem here is that maybe he doesn't look foolish to the audience he's pitching this to?  They might see this as a huge display of manliness that should make the Ukrainians shake in their boots.

This is similar to all the bare chested horse riding nonsense associated with Putin.  Even the Western right-wing nutjobs LOVED THIS!  They constantly compared Putin to Obama in terms of testosterone levels and what not.  Of course this sort of comparison didn't work so well with the next President, so Photoshop and some pictures of Sylvester Stalone had to do.

My point here is that to a certain political demographic even in the West, this sort of stuff works even if the majority wonder if this was an SNL parody skit or, as suggested, an advertisement for Kadyrov's Used Car Emporium.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Its an interesting question for which a lot of the variables are unknown - the primary one being the number of contract soldiers in any given formation. 

This is what really screws up rules of thumb.  Unit A has 75% contractors and Unit B has 50%.  That's a big difference, but it gets worse.  Unit C also has 75% contractors, but they sprinkled them around as truck drivers and other "rear" positions.  So who fills those boots... guys from a Rifle Platoon?

Ya know, it is said that one of the reasons why Russians stick with Putin is because he keeps chaos away from the gate.  Well, it sure seems that he let it in and allowed it to ravage the armed forces.

8 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

There is also the danger of applying too much logic to the problem given the absence of logic in much of what Russia has done to date with its ground forces.

Yes, exactly.  Which is why whenever we hear someone say BTG we should at least downgrade the personnel expectations.

8 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

In an ideal world you task-organize to .... erm ... task so the composition of a task-organised battlegroup depends on its mission and the area it will operate in.  The simple example being that if 1st BTG needs to cross a river then it should get the available bridging assets chopped to it, whereas if 2nd BTG needs to assault a prepared defensive position then it would probably be infantry heavy, get a reasonable slice of gunnery and a lot of breaching assets like mine clearing vehicles.  I'm not convinced that this is happening based on what we heard a few weeks back about there being no overall Land Component Commander and for the initial stages of the operation, the divisional commanders were pretty much told to do their own thing so long as that involved pushing into Ukraine.  I'll maybe give it some thought tomorrow.

My impression is that the Russians have a vastly different concept of "task organization" than we in the West do.  It appears the primary concept was to ensure that an one particular Regiment could field a BTG at any given time no matter what the state of conscripts is, how many vehicles they have in repair, etc.  In Western terminology, the "commander's intent is to have a battalion that checks all the boxes, that's it".

Steve

[danfrodo]

Any news from the front?  Seems UKR keeping things quiet, maybe for OPSEC. 

I am betting that Russians are making no progress because if they were they'd be acting like it was the new Operation Bagration.  And where every village taken is called a city, and every city a metropolis.  The silence perhaps says much. 

[akd]

55 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Watch out, defenders of Azovstal: Kadyrov is coming. 

 

Look at all the luxury SUVs we stole in Ukraine!

Anyways, I prefer this Kadyrov video:

 

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, akd said:

 

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Kraft

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Just to add some personal observations about the opinions in Germany:

The thing I find most interesting is that the especially young generation of the eco-green electorate seems to be turning into veritable Russia-hawks with the war in Ukraine (also see the survey result I posted above). Considering the history of the Green party, that's a pretty fascinating development and very different from how the Green party almost tore itself apart about the Kosovo war and the German military involvement in Afghanistan in 2001.

The green hawkish position has really surprised me. I would have assumed them to be the last ones (based on their pre-invasion stance on anything weapon related) to semi-stand up against what ever redherring, confusion psyops Scholz is running.

Edited April 20, 2022 by Kraft

[rocketman]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Hey, that’s an insult to garden gnomes.

[Huba]

31 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Any news from the front?  Seems UKR keeping things quiet, maybe for OPSEC. 

I am betting that Russians are making no progress because if they were they'd be acting like it was the new Operation Bagration.  And where every village taken is called a city, and every city a metropolis.  The silence perhaps says much. 

It's quite silent, but I came across this notion:

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by Huba

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

So back on subject, there was a post a few days ago that one or two BTG level officers were arrested and taken away because they were only at 55% strength but had reported 100%.  Does anyone know if that post has held up to scrutiny?  (I get how hard it would be to verify).  That would certainly explain a lot about Russian failings, sending in ~half of what higher ups thought they were sending.

Yes, that Chinese feed I referenced earlier has numbers.... 

 

 

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

It's quite silent. I came across this notion though:

 

ahhh, the old "let's burn up all our artillery ammo and take heavy casualties and losses before our real offensive begins" strategy.  Brilliant!!  That Putin is a real genius.

This whole thing does smell like a war run by a dictator who can't be questioned. 

[LongLeftFlank]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

Look at all the luxury SUVs we stole in Ukraine!

Anyways, I prefer this Kadyrov video:

 

So "Achmat sila!" really translates to "Where's Waldo now?" 

 

[dan/california]

The Greens, to whatever extent I understand it, are among other things a very feminist orientated party. That may be a clunky way of putting it, bit I think you get my point. The extent to which the Russian military has openly encouraged rape and much, MUCH worse may have popped their reality bubble even more effectively than it has in the rest of the civilized world. If you are strongly for women being able to fully participate in society, Russian fascism is NOT your thing. The Russians have been doing their level best to make that clear. To their credit the Greens have gotten the message and figured out which of their values are more important. They even picked the right ones, which is sort of miraculous.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/national/hide-the-girls-how-russian-soldiers-rape-and-torture-ukrainians/

I wouldn't actually read it if you like sleeping.......

Edited April 20, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[LongLeftFlank]

State of play, good maps. 

https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-56-summary/

https://militaryland.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/day_56_Siverskyi-Donets.png

 

 

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-20/germany-to-provide-ukraine-with-rockets-training-for-artillery

PzH 2000s from the Netherlands, Germany will train and supply ammo for them. 

 

[c3k]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Someone attempted to determine what % of the Russian equipment that entered Ukraine in February has been lost:

 

If those numbers are even close to the truth...they are staggering.

[Battlefront.com]

Good, this guy is back from a short vacation, though he got sick so his voice is bad.  He does very good military summaries at the end of each day, though I don't know how the analysis is made (he always mentions "we").  However, I've been following him for weeks now and haven't found anything to object to.

This posting covers the last three days.  He's going to resume regular updates on Friday:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Whoops, wrong thread

Steve

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Watch out, defenders of Azovstal: Kadyrov is coming. 

Such a complete twat.

[Battlefront.com]

37 minutes ago, c3k said:

If those numbers are even close to the truth...they are staggering.

They are.  Even more so if they are using Russian starting numbers that were above what really went into Ukraine.  LLF's reposted info is just one of many that indicates actual frontline strength of many units was 75%.  But again, it's impossible to really know.

Steve

[akd]

45 minutes ago, c3k said:

If those numbers are even close to the truth...they are staggering.

We must make more progress on boat liquidation!

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

We must make more progress on boat liquidation!

Sure but redlining that Personnel line would also be quite nice.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

OK, my quick take on where things are at with the offensive.

Russia is still going by Soviet playbook to weaken the lines, try to get Ukraine to commit reserves, and look for weaknesses.  I do think they've made some real attempts at breakthroughs here and there, but the primary force is still not committed.

In reading today's ISW report I realized there is an added benefit to letting this phase play out for a couple of days.  It allowed them to get the offensive started and buy some time to prepare the main force all at the same time.  There are reports that another 4 BTGs arrived last night from the far eastern provinces, for example.  Might be a decent practical way to handle the alleged time pressure to have this all wrapped up in a couple of weeks, yet not rush the main forces into combat before the basic logistics and replacements are taken care of.

It doesn't really change anything as far as I can see, but it does look to benefit Russian plans.  Well, except this also gives Ukraine an opportunity to better prepare to disrupt the main attack when it happens.  Though the counter to that is Ukraine would likely be doing that sort of thing anyway.

Steve