How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Yar. Plus ATGM infantry infiltration. Sounds like there's already RUS supply issues (surprise) in Izyum.

[sross112]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

And they don't have to completely close the pocket, just bring the supply lines under effective artillery fire.

Wouldn't that just be icing on the cake for the UA. If the UAWarData information is correct that would be the 1st GTA in there consisting of the 4th TD, 2nd MRD, 3rd MRD, 47th TD and 106th ABN Div. 

Like you said, even if they couldn't close the pocket I think if they even got close enough to hammer the supply lines we might see Steve's prediction of a collapse and major route with those units trying to scramble out of the trap. I hope the UA pulls it off and makes a highway of death if they can't kettle and destroy them outright.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, sross112 said:

I said awhile back that I think Putin is awaiting the fall of Mariupol and then he could announce to his people that Ukraine had been denazified and that the military objective of destroying the UA was complete. Then they would hunker down in the LDNR and south of the Dnepr, try to get a western or UN backed ceasefire and hold onto the LDNR and the land bridge. 

I agree that I don't think the UA or the Ukrainian people will settle for that now. So does Putin wait for Mariupol to fall, announce the above bullcrap and then pull back to the starting lines? Sell that as a win to his people and beg the west and UN to help get a ceasefire in place? Does the UA and the people of Ukraine settle for that or do they try to take back all their territory in Crimea too?

That might be a question for Haiduk and Kraze. Does Ukraine say that due to all the separatist stuff in the previously occupied areas it isn't worth taking back at the cost of however many UA lives? Or is the majority of the population in those areas wanting to be part of Ukraine again? Doesn't make too much sense to waste blood and treasure of Ukraine if it would be a drawn out anti-partisan operation but it might if the risk of that is diminished with the RA defeat.

Thoughts?

Through deportations into far east and mass murder russians made sure only pro-russians remain a vast majority on occupied territories of Donbass. And yeah, we can't even imagine what sort of mass graves will eventually be found there after 8 years of occupation.

Not to mention that they mass brought in their broke ass looters they call an "army" to live in "vacated" homes over those 8 years.

So much like Crimea those territories should be retaken using a complete set of sanctions banning russian oil and gas so that Russia is so unstable - caring about occupied areas will be its last priority. If those sanctions will ever happen. Losing thousands of soldiers just to take areas too mentally infested with "russian world" - is not worth it.

It's important to save people in newly occupied territories though.

Edited April 18, 2022 by kraze

[LongLeftFlank]

Fire for effect! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[TheVulture]

Sounds of artillery and small arms (machine gun) fire reported in Staroverivka (red icon circled in yellow on map below). Which seems oddly far behind 'front lines'

(Karkhiv ring road just visible  in top left. Blue flags are villages reported captured by Ukraine yesterday. Red line in the bottom right is where the front line was considered a few days ago east of Izyum - there have been a lot of reports of fighting and Haiduk posted something about very heavy combat at Borova yesterday or the day before).

This could be anything from spoiling attacks to stop Russia building up in its own time, through to attempts to threaten the supply lines, all the way up to an attempt to encircle the forces in Izym (which is where Russia has the highest concentration of BTGs right now).  As ISW has been saying for a month now, this is where the battle war is going to be visibly decided (ignoring for now that Russia's initial plan was decided (as  failure) as soon as the initial 'win in 3 days' plan was revealed to be fiction).

At what point do we stop talking about this upcoming Russia offensive, and start talking about the "Izyum salient"?

EDIT: On the down side, Russia has apparently largely gained control of Kremina (just near the red circle cut off on the bottom right of the image), although fighting is still ongoing there.

Edited April 18, 2022 by TheVulture

[Taranis]

Yehor, 7, holds a wooden rifle next to destroyed Russian military vehicles near Chernihiv, Sunday April 17, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP

 

A man carries a bicycle along a street full of destroyed Russian military vehicles near Chernihiv, Sunday April 17, 2022. EVGENIY MALOLETKA / AP

 

A member of pro-Russian troops walks past a burnt residential building during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in the port city of Mariupol, southern Ukraine, April 17, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

People walk past the turret of a tank that was destroyed during the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, in the port city of Mariupol, southern Ukraine, April 17, 2022. ALEXANDER ERMOCHENKO / REUTERS

* T-72B like ?

Ukrainian soldiers seek shelter during a bombardment carried out by the Russian army on Kharkiv, April 17, 2022. FELIPE DANA / AP

* seems Flecktarn like camo (for the first one)

[Rokossovski]

8 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

[Snip] At what point do we stop talking about this upcoming Russia offensive, and start talking about the "Izyum salient"? [Snip]

Yeah, I just had the same thought. I was looking at the map and wondering if the Ukrainians were thinking of trying to pinch off that salient at . . . Izyum.

Then I remembered having more than once used cardboard and hexagons to game out the "Battle of the Izyum Salient" from the Great Patriotic Special Military Operation. If this turns into a replay of that fight . . .

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Machor said:

This 'news' - which appears to have originated in the Greek press - was refuted by Russia. Russia will only enlarge its existing unofficial mission for expanded consular services - supposedly, Northern Cyprus has seen a large influx of Russians fleeing Russia:

 

??? - All NATO bases in Turkey are open and operational, including the major US airbase at İncirlik with B61 nuclear bombs and a Spanish Patriot battery, and the Kürecik radar station.

Turkey intervened in on-going fighting between EOKA-B, Makarios loyalists, Turkish Cypriots, and Greek Cypriot Communists after EOKA-B carried out a coup to facilitate the annexation of Cyprus by the military junta in Athens; Turkey's NATO membership had no relationship to the operation itself. However, Turkey did face a years-long arms embargo by the US afterwards because of using US military aid that had been intended for NATO operations; this forced Turkey to create a new, 4th Army, which is not under NATO command and does not use NATO aid and funds.

Indeed the news are not confirmed, although they are still circulating in major news sites. I won't be surprised if this happens in future though given the increasingly russian influx. And we shouldn't trust russian words right? 

Honestly, about the NATO bases in Turkey , whatever I have read indicates a nearly idle situation and I haven't heard any major operation from Incirlik, contrasted to the past years which was very active. A lot has changed since. The Syria campaign, the coup against Erdogan with many in Turkey blaming some degree US involvement. The epicenter of US operations has shifted towards Greece with the new Alexandroupoli base and existing Suda Bay base. https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_us-military-base-turkey-has-uncertain-future/6180061.html

On the 1974 while you are correct, it was practically a pretext like what caused Russia to intervene in Donbas, though people here would prefer the word invasion. That doesn't change though the impression that Turkey has the attitude to act on its own against international law and its own alliances and getting away with it. Whatever measures the West took they simply weren't enough to punish Turkey for killing and displacing thousands of people and occupying 40% of the island for half a century now. It's an ongoing disgrace if you ask me. 

Ps. I want to add that I'd love one day all this hostility would belong to the past. We are very close as people. I have turkish friends that have fled the country because of Erdogan. Like in case of Russia there are mainly poor, rural areas that are mainly feeding support to the regime. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

16 minutes ago, Rokossovski said:

Yeah, I just had the same thought. I was looking at the map and wondering if the Ukrainians were thinking of trying to pinch off that salient at . . . Izyum.

Then I remembered having more than once used cardboard and hexagons to game out the "Battle of the Izyum Salient" from the Great Patriotic Special Military Operation. If this turns into a replay of that fight . . .

History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.

[LongLeftFlank]

Interesting thread on who joins the RA (not Muscovites)

 

[mosuri]

11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No, judging on display this is Stugna-P, just missile was lauched from upper storeys of the modular building  

One thing I've been wondering is -- since Stugna-P is laser guided AIUI -- we're seeing very few vids of tanks popping smoke. Don't RF tanks have detectors, are they only facing forward, or is it just operator ineptness?

In CMBS smoke popping and reversing happens the instant someone points a laser a tank's way ... BFC please fix or something

[kraze]

38 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

On the 1974 while you are correct, it was practically a pretext like what caused Russia to intervene in Donbas, though people here would prefer the word invasion.

intervene in Donbas into what exactly?

[panzermartin]

3 minutes ago, kraze said:

intervene in Donbas into what exactly?

I used that word because Machor used it to describe the Turkish invasion. It's still an invasion by Russia. 

[Pete Wenman]

A good guide to the potential UKA counterattack against what can now probably be called the Izyum salient 

 

and an interesting comparison with the Battle of Britain

 

P

 

 

[Huba]

All right, so I have a question, mostly to @kraze and @Haiduk, but of course everyone is welcome to chip in. 

What is a general attitude of Ukrainians towards:

a) population of the "Peoples Republics" and Crimea 

b) soldiers of the military units from those regions

Are they traitors and scum, or just unfortunate souls that small group of pro-Russians takes advantage of? 

If UA army was to enter these lands, how will the local population greet them?

I don't recall any biggger defections of Republics' soldiers to UA, those aren't common at this point? 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[kraze]

29 minutes ago, Huba said:

All right, so I have a question, mostly to @kraze and @Haiduk, but of course everyone is welcome to chip in. 

What is a general attitude of Ukrainians towards:

a) population od the Peoples Republics and Crimea 

b) soldiers of the military units from those regions

Are they traitors and scum, or just unfortunate souls that small group of pro-Russians takes advantage of? 

If UA army was to enter these lands, how will the local population greet them?

I don't recall any biggger defections of Republics' soldiers to UA, those aren't common at this point? 

Those aren't "republics", but occupied areas by russians where they did a lot of cleansing and a lot of russian soldiers got to live there as a "payment" for taking part in an occupation* - a prospect promised to the rest of them upon occupying Ukraine. So naturally soldiers and traitors supporting them will be treated like criminals. Everybody else should be legally forbidden to take part in any kind of political decisions (even local elections) for at least 10 years.

Should be no different for Crimea as well. At least 10 years of "non-citizenship" for everybody with prosecution of russian soldiers and traitors.

*As an example - that lovely pair, where a chick asked her husband to rape our women - came to Crimea from Russia upon occupation and live in an apartment that formerly belonged to a Ukrainian that had to escape.

Edited April 18, 2022 by kraze

[Huba]

Shold have written "republics", no doubt about their status.

Edit: all the ethnic cleansing and immigration that Russians did will be difficult to deal with for sure You don't want a 5th column there for sure, but can't use the same methods as them, just for the sake of international support. 

What is great is thet we went from asking if Ukraine survives to discussing liberation of pre 2014 territories in less then two months

Edited April 18, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

46 minutes ago, Huba said:

All right, so I have a question, mostly to @kraze and @Haiduk, but of course everyone is welcome to chip in. 

What is a general attitude of Ukrainians towards:

a) population od the Peoples Republics and Crimea 

b) soldiers of the military units from those regions

Are they traitors and scum, or just unfortunate souls that small group of pro-Russians takes advantage of? 

If UA army was to enter these lands, how will the local population greet them?

I don't recall any biggger defections of Republics' soldiers to UA, those aren't common at this point? 

As I told recently, population of Crimea and industrial East before 2014 was not so pro-Russian, but mostly Soviet-nostalgy. They equalized modern Russia with old good USSR times. So many of these people, which because of many factors were Ukrainains only by passport, but by own moods remained "Soviet poeple", at least didn't mind that Russia would come here. They thought Russia would bring here Soviet style of life, Moscow-level salaries and cheap prices. There is good aphorism, we lost part of Donbas not because pro-Russian moods were so strong there, but because majority of people didn't care.

Most of pro-Ukrainan population abandoned occupied Donbas territories. Only real pro-Russians left or conformists, which will take power of stronger force because of typical Soviet mentality "we are "small people", we do not influence anything", reigned in these territories. 

So, of cousre overal attitude for Donbas population like to "miserable traitors, who trade Ukraine for cheap sausage and vodka". Attitude to LDPR fighters always was scornful. But since real war began it obviously will more and more shift to more tough. I think, after liberation of Donbas better way will be to force pro-Russians to go away to Russia, to their "promiced land" or establish the term of "non-citizen" like in Baltic states.

The harder situation with Crimea. Many of locals were glad, when Russia came, but now after Russian oligarchs has been destroying unique Crimean nature for own villas, hotels and new residential districts, when locals encountered with full decline of medicine, food quality degradation and rising ot prices, their love to "mother Russia" significantly hesitated. But anyway, since USSR time in Crimea and especially in Sevastopol, many retired officer families from Northern of Pacific fleets were settled. At least 30-40% of pre-war polpulation confess strong pro-Russian and agressive anti-Ukrainan position. Also at least 500 000+ Russians migrated to Crimea since 2014 and bought here own real estate. And we should solve somehow this problem. I think, most of them will run away by Kerch bridge without our help.    

Edited April 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[womble]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

most of them will run away by Kerch bridge without our help.    

Another good reason not to drop the bridge, even if it's within the UA's capabilities. Gotta leave somewhere for the rats to run.

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Shold have written "republics", no doubt about their status, it's Ukraine. So how do you think locals will greet you? Will you be conquerors or liberators? 

They just will assume this fact. Many will call our soldiers "fascists", "punishers", but... they will do nothing more. And will take own salary and pensions from our budget. This is their mentality. This already was on liberated Donbas territories in 2014. Relatively large amount of people will await "Russian liberators" anyway in Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, Konstianmtynivka and many other. For example almost all police in occupied Berdiansk defected to Russian side. 

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Pete Wenman said:

Unless the Russians move very quickly to regain road access to the front. 

 

Regaining road access. To your own front.

[Holien]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

For example almost all police in occupied Berdiansk defected to Russian side. 

I think that some of this is just human nature, we had the same when Germany occupied the Channel Islands, France had same in vichy areas. 

Folk need money to live and just accept the new situation. 

P.S. as ever thanks for your information it's always appreciated. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Holien

[kraze]

41 minutes ago, Huba said:

Shold have written "republics", no doubt about their status.

Edit: all the ethnic cleansing and immigration that Russians did will be difficult to deal with for sure You don't want a 5th column there for sure, but can't use the same methods as them, just for the sake of international support. 

What is great is thet we went from asking if Ukraine survives to discussing liberation of pre 2014 territories in less then two months

Of course nobody talks about the same methods - hence why "non-citizenship". Allowing anyone in there to vote after 8 years of occupation is a recipe for disaster. People will either be genuinely anti-Ukraine or too psychologically traumatized to make adequate choices. Even on free territories we will have to deal with people with a Stockholm syndrome that will try to find anything good in russian occupiers after the war's over.

Edited April 18, 2022 by kraze

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Holien said:

I think that some of this is just human nature, we had the same when Germany occupied the Channel Islands, France had same in vichy areas. 

Folk need money to live and just accept the new situation. 

P.S. as ever thanks for your information it's always appreciated. 

money is no excuse for torturing and killing your own.

[Huba]

@kraze  @Haiduk Thank you for your replies. So to summarize:

- In LDPR it is unlikely that locals will be actively hostile, more like indifferent. The most Pro-Russian elements are already fighting, or will evacuate to Russia. After recent actions of Russians there ( like forcibly pressing men into the army), attitudes towards Russians are probably turning to worse.

- Crimea has a big ethnic Russian population, including recent immigrants. It will be hard to count on  general local support there, and some at least might be openly hostile. Some of the locals (what is left of Crimean Tatars, remaining people who identify as Ukrainians) might be unhappy with the ongoing russification though, but in general the attitudes are conflicted. TBH this sound like a ground for a local "civil war" type scenario a bit, might be nasty.