How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Probus]

11 hours ago, Huba said:

Logical solution is to give those systems a degree of autonomy, but it brings a host of moral questions, and ultimately leads to discussions about SkyNet type scenarios ( tongue in cheek of course).

As you can tell @Battlefront.com, I'm more of an avionics guy than a ground systems person.  But here's a little window into some of what the USAF is up to (I'm sure you're already savvy to).

@Huba, or should I call you Black Adder , you say tongue in cheek, but the USAF takes that seriously.  It has rules regarding vehicles that operate autonomously just so we don't get ourselves into a SkyNet situation.  Mostly -return home type commands if they lose the ability to control the vehicle remotely. 

But that is not always the case.  Take, for instance, the new B-21.  I was never privy to the OFP (Operational Flight Programming) for that vehicle (and obviously if I were we wouldn't be having this discussion), but the OFP for these kinds of vehicles have more of a -complete the mission and -return home type programming.  And the drones designed to accompany an F-35 on attack/bombing raids, those reach another level of autonomy along side their human operator.  I'm fairly certain those type drones are not operational yet, and if they were, the USAF wouldn't be shouting about it either.  Those commands probably go a step further with -complete the mission, -defend the F-35, and -return home in high ECM environments.

https://warriormaven.com/air/air-force-mini-drone-swarms-could-be-operated-by-a-b-21-or-f-35

The thing is, the drones used for air missions are in a much closer to 'pristine' environment than the ones used in the mud and sand on the ground, at least relatively speaking.  As mentioned earlier, what happens when one of these UGVs becomes immobilized?  I imagine a lot of future ambushes will center around this very situation.

[Taranis]

A convoy of Russian military armored vehicles near Mariupol, April 16, 2022. ALEXEI ALEXANDROV / AP

* 2S1 battery

 

Russian soldiers walk on a street in Mariupol, April 12, 2022, as Russian troops step up their campaign to take the strategic port city, part of a massive assault planned in eastern Ukraine, while the Russian president defends the war against his neighbor. ALEXANDER NEMENOV / AFP

* What camouflae is it ? Is it Separatists or navy ?

[Huba]

This probably means nothing, but if somee DPR unit would change sides and Nova Kakhovka suddenly fallen in UA control... 

 

[DesertFox]

LOL! Such idiots...

 

 

[kraze]

soviet pioneers travel in a sub called "Neptune"

pioneer #1: "hmmm, I see - it's a fascist cruiser"

pioneer #2: "how do you know?"

pioneer #1: "I've read about it. Fascist cruisers were marked with Z"

For some reason upset russians seem to be mass reporting any uploads of this soviet cartoon on YT to ban them.

Edited April 17, 2022 by kraze

[Probus]

Massed Infantry -=Defeated=- by the Machine Gun

Machine Gun -=Defeated=- by the Tank

Tank -=Defeated=- by Heavy Tank

Heavy Tank -=Defeated=- by the ATGM

ATGM -=Defeated=- by the Drone???

Drone??? -=Defeated=- by the ???EW AAA Light UGV Tank

???EW AAA Light UGV Tank -=Defeated=- by the  Infantry (in trucks )

And on and on...  But all those weapon systems, including the Infantry are still relevant on the battlefield.

SOURCES:

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Probus
Added sources.

[womble]

8 minutes ago, Probus said:

Massed Infantry -=Defeated=- by the Machine Gun

Machine Gun -=Defeated=- by the Tank

Tank -=Defeated=- by Heavy Tank

Heavy Tank -=Defeated=- by the ATGM

ATGM -=Defeated=- by the Drone???

Drone??? -=Defeated=- by the ???EW AAA Light UGV Tank

???EW AAA Light UGV Tank -=Defeated=- by the  Infantry (in trucks )

And on and on...  But all those weapon systems, including the Massed Infantry are still relevant on the battlefield.

 

I was thinking earlier that "Rock-paper-scissors" has definitely become more like "Rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock"... To take a drastically oversimplified analogy and stretch it past breaking point...

[c3k]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

At some point in my diatribe I thought about that.  But by that logic a drone is an airplane or helicopter, yet I doubt you'd describe some 19 year old flying one to be a "pilot" like you, eh?

Seriously though, I do think the remote control nature of the vehicle puts it into its own category.  Directly related to the tank in some ways, sure, but I think different enough to not classify it as a direct replacement.  Though now that I think about it in those terms, I think calling the UGV itself "revolutionary" is premature.  The transformative effect on battlefield force structures, strategies, and tactics (when they happen) might tick things over to "revolutionary".

Steve

There is a big shift towards unmanned aerial combat vehicles, a fancy name for unmanned fighters. The Loyal Wingman program is a precursor.  Removing the pilot from the airframe frees up a ton of weight...literally. Pilot, ejection seat,  life support gear, instruments: that's roughly a ton of weight. And, you're no longer limited to 9g (and that only for short times).

(And, one ton at 9gs means 18,000lbs of structure that does not have to be accounted for...or could be replaced with weapons, fuel, sensors, etc.)

The language is still catching up to the technology. Drone, quad, kamikaze, loitering munition, weapon truck, UCAV, etc...  

Optionally-manned equipment in combat is going to happen, both on the ground and in the air (as well as on/under the sea). 

These innovations will prove crucial when we battle Space Lobsters.    (Hey, you're still planning on making that, right?)

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

* What camouflage is it ? Is it Separatists or navy ?

I dunno, but was Putin's dad (or mom) in that guy's oblast, oh, about 9 months before he was born?

...Reminds me of the PJ O'Rourke (RIP) line on 1990s Yugoslavia:

Come to think of it, the Serbs *are* a bit different than the Croats. The Serbs look more like John Belushi, while the Croats look more like the rest of the cast of Animal House.

[cyrano01]

50 minutes ago, Probus said:

Massed Infantry -=Defeated=- by the Machine Gun

Machine Gun -=Defeated=- by the Tank

Tank -=Defeated=- by Heavy Tank

Heavy Tank -=Defeated=- by the ATGM

ATGM -=Defeated=- by the Drone???

Drone??? -=Defeated=- by the ???EW AAA Light UGV Tank

???EW AAA Light UGV Tank -=Defeated=- by the  Infantry (in trucks )

And on and on...  But all those weapon systems, including the Infantry are still relevant on the battlefield.

 

 

If my experience of gunnners is anything to go by they would probably reply:

Massed Infantry - Defeated by artillery

Machine Gun - Defeated by artillery

Tanks - Defeated by anti-tank artillery

Heavy tanks - Defeated by better anti-tank artillery (some of which may take the form of missiles)

ATGM - Defeated by artillery + drones

Drones - Defeated by AA artillery

EW AAA Light UGV Tank - To be defeated by precision artillery

Artillety - Defeated by ...nobody defeats artillery...Ubique.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

Massed Infantry -=Defeated=- by the Machine Gun

Machine Gun -=Defeated=- by the Tank

Tank -=Defeated=- by Heavy Tank

Heavy Tank -=Defeated=- by the ATGM

ATGM -=Defeated=- by the Drone???

Drone??? -=Defeated=- by the ???EW AAA Light UGV Tank

???EW AAA Light UGV Tank -=Defeated=- by the  Infantry (in trucks )

And on and on...  But all those weapon systems, including the Massed Infantry are still relevant on the battlefield.

 

So ATGM, Drone and "EW AAA Light UGV Tank" are all the same species...unmanned systems.  My guess is that we are finally at the emergence of the unmanned RMA.  It is a misconception that RMAs happen suddenly, we get surprised by them because they evolve to a tipping point and then break.  Every RMA in history has taken decades and in some cases centuries to build up.  The reason for this is that they often rely on a combination of technologies and the doctrine of employment of those technologies to coalesce into the phenomenon.

So "unmanned" is pretty old as a concept.  Wiki says 1849 at Venice with "incendiary balloons" but Genghis used "flaming swallows", the Romans had flaming pigs and the Egyptians had freakin "war lions".  Then there are legions of "human unmanned systems" which span the gambit from "local partners" to "colonials" to "Indigenes".  This is not a new idea is my point.

So ATGMs are really just an evolution of "unmanned" which has evolved to "unmanned that carry and fire other unmanned" in the form of UAVs and UGVs.  So what?

Well unmanned, up until now, has never been able to combine autonomy with range, lethality and ISR that we are seeing in this war. These systems are going to get better in all these factors but the most important is "autonomy".  Fully autonomous systems do not need a continuous communications link back to a human to do their job.  One cannot cut that link because it is not required except to send ISR data back, which has work arounds. So the first thing we will likely see is a race to the bottom on autonomy because "more, better autonomy" will win.  Here AI/ML and CPU technology will be critical in creating unmanned advantage, all based on the ability to miniaturize processing power and create the software.

Range and lethality depend on energy.  How much can a system carry, how far and for how long. Energy production and storage technology also continue to accelerate, as does explosives technology. (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-29880-7_3)  So what?  Well it means that lethality will weight less and the energy systems that power carrying it are getting more efficient, so more lethal, longer and further.

Roll into this materials technology in both strength, weight and manufacturing costs and you now have a system one can mass produce easier and cheaper than a human based one.  

"No, Capt...so freakin what?!"

Well that one is hard.  The actual impact on the battlefield is really hard to guess because a lot of really smart people have not fully played all this out.  My guess (and it is a guess) is that warfare is in for a major shift at a texture level because you are basically changing a building block component; this is right there next to the impact of the changing "bullet".  Accept this time it is not the kinetic penetrator, it is information processing.

What might that look like?  Well I think it will look more like a knife fight in Frank Herbert's Dune but at really long ranges.  Each side will know where their opponent is; however, what is competitive is the resolution of that knowledge, higher is better as it allows for better precise targeting.  One will need precise targeting in order to know what and where to have the first stage of this kind of fight, "unmanned battle".  This will be highly attritional as it is hard to manoeuvre against unmanned systems in the classical sense because they cannot be shocked or scared.  So we will likely see and exchange of long range unmanned systems, all with high precision capability being counter with other unmanned defensive and offensive systems.  This may very well occur over the horizon before "people" even see each other.  

So back to the Dune knife fight, land formations will still have to manoeuvre quickly but it will be to positions of advantage for the slower body shield penetration battle (unmanned attrition).  Once one side buckles then we may see second stage forces, likely a combination of manned and unmanned close in quickly for the positional kills we are used to seeing in manoeuvre warfare, so fast finishing thrust once inside the body shield.  And for anyone taking notes, there is a spectrum between these two conditions so it won't be simple or predictable...this will be why we still need a human brain on the field, and that brain will need to be "forward enough". 

The "follow-ons" to all this are significant.  Mass and speed still matter but now mass has to be "dynamic mass" in ways we have not seen.  Systems have to be able to de-aggregate and aggregate much faster than the human based land warfare systems we know and love.  Slow mass is dead on the future battlefield, and I do not mean linear forward movement, I mean how fast it can change its nature.  So we will still need hammers, but before they become hammers they will have been wire-feelers, pliers, spears, arrows and hornets, all on the same axis of advance.   This requires a different military mind-set, far more inductive reasoning and frameworks than we currently employ or select for.  It will require a new logistics model, C4ISR enterprises that now include a concept of "AI/ML superiority"...the list goes on.

So you can see how there is a lot more at stake here than the venerable old tank.

Edited April 17, 2022 by The_Capt

[Kinophile]

The remote aspect of ugvs is a real Achilles heel. Sure, Russia has fumbled the EMS from one end to the other, but - China won't.

Anything digital can be hacked - feed, commands, visuals, received sensor data, IFF...

Are you really comfortable putting a weapons platform, under remote control using sat comms, instead of a directly controlled tank that, no matter what, has human redundancy and situational awareness and will remain under human control?

I personally would assume that any conflict with a competent T1 peer (ie China only at this point) would turn the entire spectrum across the AO into a pyschotic morass. Only AI will be able to fight in that realm. Anything using that medium to directly move units will be running the risk of orders interception, delayed transmission, orders corruption etc. 

Give me an Lt or Sgt yelling at his crews in person any day. 

At the end of the day, no one is going to give up the usefulness of a 120mm, and it takes a tank to carry that. And tanks are way more useful and adaptable than battleships.

UGVs absolutely have a future role, but I don't see them replacing the tank, more complementing and amplifying it. 

e.g. Less tanks per frontage, each tank as a mini group of itself plus 2 buddy UGVs. The tank as a Fireteam, within a group of fire teams. Tank and UGVs each with APS, an onion of defense. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

I might dare for a longer post later, but confined to a phone I'll only say that what @The_Capt describes can be summarized as two robotic swarms battling it out - in the long term I agree that that's where we are heading. Technology is largely there, we just need to develop particular solutions and overcome ethical restraints

The concept was explored by various SF authors quite a bit, but I'd really like to recommend Stanislaw Lem's book "The Invincible". It was written in 1964, yet the maximalistic concept of the robotic swarm described there is really amazing even by today's standards, with 60 years of technology advancements. A pure hard SF gold, can't praise it enough. 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Huba

[Lethaface]

20 hours ago, db_zero said:

Don't about this particular product, but Fujitsu Ni-CD batteries are some of the best ones to get, but you have to be careful. Some are still made in Japan and high quality, while others made in China using machines shipped to China to be used for cheaper labor, but sold under the Fujitsu name are not as high quality. 

One of the conditions for opening shop in China is you play by their rules and turn over everything to them so they can learn.

The issue with Lithography machines is they're that complex,  reverse engineering 'm doesn't really 'work'. At least until now and afaik, obviously efforts with that effect will be ongoing. 

ASML for example doesn't provide China with the latest generation machines (they aren't allowed) but they do provide the previous generation. 

That might change in the future, China has large interests it doesn't change imo. Since basically USA gov. decides on this subject,  China might be weary to provoke stuff by setting up shop bigtime for Russian army needs.

[sross112]

I don't think UGV's are the next thing. They are probably the next, next thing or the next, next, next thing. A UGV is still just as irrelevant as a manned tank until the drone is conclusively countered. So next step is counter UAV and counter loitering munitions and then counter swarms. After that is done and all vehicle survivability gets up to an acceptable level again UGV's will be next on the shopping list. 

As for UGV's I agree with The Capt that the AI is the bug that has to be worked out as otherwise the Achille's Heel is the control as Kinophile illustrated. 

The interim stage will be dominated by leg infantry using all sorts of switchblade like drones mostly because right now it is the most cost effective. Did you know the smaller switchblades only cost $6000? That means you can launch 6 or 7 for the cost of a stinger or almost 30 of them for the cost of a Javelin. The bigger ones have a 40km range so that is perfect for staying out of most artillery range and being able to kill it.

I think the PBI is back in with these tools and will dominate the battlespace until they are countered.

[Huba]

More Ukrainian trolling

 

[Probus]

22 minutes ago, sross112 said:

So next step is counter UAV and counter loitering munitions and then counter swarms. After that is done and all vehicle survivability gets up to an acceptable level again UGV's will be next on the shopping list.

It probably won't be too long before we have a dedicated vehicle designed to counter drones.  Something similar to an AEGIS cruiser in the Navy.  Lots of ECM, 20mm, Lasers (to blind or kill drones), and small guided submunitions to take out swarms.  The GBAD and Coyote are a start.

https://news.usni.org/2018/06/04/marines-forward-deploy-portable-drone-killing-system

https://www.armyrecognition.com/weapons_defence_industry_military_technology_uk/raytheon_demonstrates_m-lids_coyote_block_2_counter_uas_unmanned_aerial_system_weapon_station.html

 

[Offshoot]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

LOL! Such idiots...

 

 

Teaching the Kiddyrovite.

[Taranis]

UKR seems to be launching a lot of attacks today

Ukrainian military in Joint Forces Operation zone repelled 10 Russian attacks today. 15 tanks, 3 pieces of artillery, 24 armoured vehicles destroyed. 4 Orlan-10 drones and 2 cruise missiles shot down (16/04 PM) :

Ukrainian army counter-attack between Kreminna, Rubizhne and Sviatohirsk, Russian troops were pushed several kilometres to North-East (today) :

 

Ukrainian army conducting offensive operation at Kutuzivka, Bairak, and east to Mala Rohan (today) :

 

 

On Russian side :
Russian army attempting to advance at Liubymivka-Novozlatopil line :

 

Battle ongoing for Lozove village on the border between Donetsk and Kharkiv regions

 

 

 

[ASL Veteran]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

There is a big shift towards unmanned aerial combat vehicles, a fancy name for unmanned fighters. The Loyal Wingman program is a precursor.  Removing the pilot from the airframe frees up a ton of weight...literally. Pilot, ejection seat,  life support gear, instruments: that's roughly a ton of weight. And, you're no longer limited to 9g (and that only for short times).

(And, one ton at 9gs means 18,000lbs of structure that does not have to be accounted for...or could be replaced with weapons, fuel, sensors, etc.)

The language is still catching up to the technology. Drone, quad, kamikaze, loitering munition, weapon truck, UCAV, etc...  

Optionally-manned equipment in combat is going to happen, both on the ground and in the air (as well as on/under the sea). 

These innovations will prove crucial when we battle Space Lobsters.    (Hey, you're still planning on making that, right?)

 

[Haiduk]

Today's shelling of the center of Kharkiv, reportedly 5 dead, 13 injured. Brave paramedic stayed under fire with wounded woman and shouts to the rest of wounded: "Lie down! Don't get up!"

 

 

Edited April 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[A Canadian Cat]

15 hours ago, sburke said:

Why back in the day we didn't even HAVE likes. When you wanted to like something you had to go see em, send a letter, or call them... on a rotary dial phone!  

In a nice bit of irony when I tried to give this post a like I was met only with the notification that I am out of likes for today. 

So, I'll have to do this the old fashioned way: +1 good post

#morelikesplease

[kraze]

 

A country of thugs and thieves.

Edited April 17, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

 

A country of thugs and thieves.

karma baby

[Haiduk]

Kharkiv. Two cluster submunitions exploded aside this woman, but she stayed intact