How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, billbindc said:

What's interesting to note is that the publicly announced US intelligence assessments weren't a one time thing. They were copious, changed over time and were updated. They also were issued pretty frequently. That's *not* the kind of product you have if you are working off of a few highly placed sources (if you want them to live through the next week). Bottom line, the US was demonstrating that we had thoroughly penetrated the Russian decision cycle in every way possible. A similar thing happened a week or so ago when the NSA simply disconnected the GRU hacking team from a broad swathe of software they were about to use for a larger cyber attack. 

There's a purpose to all of this, of course. It's a demonstration of dominance and so a method by which one nation can coerce another from escalation. Putin has to consider not just the down stream effects of (for example) a strike on a Polish arms depot or a limited nuclear strike...he now has to think about what happens between when he orders it and when it can actually be carried out. He has to assume that we know pretty much as soon as he decides. It cannot be a comfortable position.

It is pretty clear we own their comms systems totally. U.S. intelligence has been 100% on Russian plans and intentions. Where U.S. has made mistakes is when it believes what the Russians are telling themselves. Pre invasion readiness reports come to mind. What we haven''t seen YET to my knowledge is the insertion of false orders/information. This is the next thing to watch for.

Edited April 16, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[sburke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

What we haven''t seen YET to knowledge is the insertion of false orders/information. This is the next thing to watch for.

why bother, let them continue to issue stupid orders.  they are going a grand job all on their own.

[Battlefront.com]

There is going to be a lot of post-war study about the partisan activities that we are only getting tiny hints about right now:

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is going to be a lot of post-war study about the partisan activities that we are only getting tiny hints about right now:

 

A very great deal of it comes down to the fact that the Russians have about a fifth of the troops they need to do what they are trying to do.

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There is going to be a lot of post-war study about the partisan activities that we are only getting tiny hints about right now:

 

There was some info from UA side that in Melitopol alone 70 Russian soldiers have been killed so far - shot or stabbed to death. 

[Battlefront.com]

This incident was mentioned sometime in the last few days, but I didn't see a link to the journalism that pieced things together.  This regards the Russian wife telling her husband in Kherson to rape women.  The article (I have it translated to English) not only shows the degree of criminality within the Russian culture, but it also shows yet another example of how a little bit of information can uncover a lot thanks to social media:

https://www-svoboda-org.translate.goog/a/ukrainskih-bab-nasiluy-voyna-desantnika-bykovskogo/31801593.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This incident was mentioned sometime in the last few days, but I didn't see a link to the journalism that pieced things together.  This regards the Russian wife telling her husband in Kherson to rape women.  The article (I have it translated to English) not only shows the degree of criminality within the Russian culture, but it also shows yet another example of how a little bit of information can uncover a lot thanks to social media:

https://www-svoboda-org.translate.goog/a/ukrainskih-bab-nasiluy-voyna-desantnika-bykovskogo/31801593.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

It was revealed by Radio Free Europe originally I think:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-rape-russian-soldier-wife-bykovsky/31805486.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y-H5N3iF_s&ab_channel=РадіоСвободаУкраїна

 

[Haiduk]

The girl - commander of SP-howitzer

 

[kraze]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This incident was mentioned sometime in the last few days, but I didn't see a link to the journalism that pieced things together.  This regards the Russian wife telling her husband in Kherson to rape women.  The article (I have it translated to English) not only shows the degree of criminality within the Russian culture, but it also shows yet another example of how a little bit of information can uncover a lot thanks to social media:

https://www-svoboda-org.translate.goog/a/ukrainskih-bab-nasiluy-voyna-desantnika-bykovskogo/31801593.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

sadly that's just a tip of the iceberg. That rabbit hole of absolute evil goes way way way deeper in there.

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This incident was mentioned sometime in the last few days, but I didn't see a link to the journalism that pieced things together.  This regards the Russian wife telling her husband in Kherson to rape women.  The article (I have it translated to English) not only shows the degree of criminality within the Russian culture, but it also shows yet another example of how a little bit of information can uncover a lot thanks to social media:

https://www-svoboda-org.translate.goog/a/ukrainskih-bab-nasiluy-voyna-desantnika-bykovskogo/31801593.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Steve

sick, disgusting.  A society of aggrieved 'victims' that are so brainwashed they can't see that they are being oppressed by their own society and gov't, not by any outsider who are out to get them.   So they lash out at Ukraine?  As if all their problems are due to Ukraine?  How exactly would that be possible?

[chrisl]

16 hours ago, db_zero said:

Question to anyone who might know or have an idea...

Playing around in CMO and some of EW (electronic warfare) aircraft have effects that extend quite a distance. It looks possible to remain in friendly/neutral territory or in international waters, turn on the EW warfare gear and affect unfriendly nations radar/SAM guidance, ship radars and so on miles away.

Its was reported a few weeks ago that the US deployed a squadron of F-18 Growlers to Europe. These have an offensive ECM load out that has quite a range of effects when used. It appears they could easily stay in NATO territory, turn on the ECM and the effects would easily extend into Ukraine.

Over international water they could easily have effects on any ships within their ECM gears range.

I've heard of some reports the Russians may be jamming GPS.

What is the international law in regards to this sort of activity-if any? In peacetime and during conflict. Is interfering with a combatants use of the electromagnetic spectrum considered an act of war like blockading? Or is it something along the line of providing weapons and supplies, but not actively taking part in a conflict? Don’t see anything on this seems like a grey area.

I've heard of people losing TV reception and other effects to electronics when presumably military exercises were happening and jamming aircraft  presumably turned their gear on.

 

13 hours ago, Rooks And Kings said:

This probably won't happen. De-escalation is the priority here and while it may seem like they went to Europe for that purpose, the reality is we send things to Europe with and without a conflict nearing. We've had aircraft south of Ukraine and they've stayed south. Jamming on Growlers is more effective the farther you are away but I find it highly unlikely it's for Offensive ECM and more likely it's transferring to a squadron for regular rotation. 

There's some indication from reported ADS-B error signals that GNSS is being degraded over Ukraine, but I'm not convinced that it's Russia doing it.  When the US launched GPS, it was the only global satellite system available and "selective availability" was built in to give the US a military advantage.  A lot of the military turned out to be using consumer GPS in GW 1 and SA got turned off in 2000 partly as a result of that, partly at the request of FAA, and partly because other systems were coming online. There are now 4 GNSS systems (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, and BeiDou).  Anybody who's capable of launching such systems is also capable of launching systems that will degrade their performance from space by spoofing signals.  

The Soviet Union had a bad relationship with maps, in which virtually all maps were seeded with significant errors to cause confusion in case of invasion.  This bad relationship went on for many decades and was only publicly acknowldged in the late 80s, shortly before the dissolution of the USSR.  According to a friend who spent a bunch fo time there, inaccurate maps predate the USSR for similar reasons.  So it's likely that Russia was going into Ukraine with Soviet era maps, at least for some levels/regions, and they may or may not have recognized the problem with that.  Ukrainians followed what appears to be standard eastern European practice of removing and/or rearranging street signs to aid their attackers. As defenders, Ukraine doesn't really need high quality GNSS - they have people who know the area and their own maps.  So if some space-capable nation with EW satellites decided to inject a few hundred meters of error into the GNSS signals over the region, it would likely make a mess for out of town visitors without completely wrecking aircraft nav safety.  I've been on backroads in the mountains in the US where there might be two fire roads that parallel each other for a while before going to very different places, and even with undegraded GPS it's not hard to get yourself onto the one that climbs an extra 1000 m of elevation before descending into the town with no restaurants instead of the one that descends into your planned lunch stop.

As far as NATO aircraft along the Ukraine border- Rooks and Kings is probably right that they're not doing active EW from the Growlers, but if you watch ADS-B exchange, there are a lot of NATO aircraft loitering in the neighborhood along the Ukraine and Kaliningrad borders.  There are a few types that usually are transmitting who they are: several types of SIGINT plane (various RC-135 versions, E-3, RC-12, Global Hawk drones, others, ), lots of transports going mostly to Poland, and a large number of aerial refueling planes.  Who we don't see at all is who's being refueled, but there are probably a lot of them, given the number of tankers.  To see who's getting refueled you probably have to be in Poland or Romania with a pair of binoculars.

[Armorgunner]

On 4/15/2022 at 6:34 AM, Battlefront.com said:

I see 4 soldiers in a wooded environment with 4 short range AT rockets.  This is a good example of why Russia is having such a hard time moving anywhere.

 

The last soldier in line.  Has an AT-4, and is the other one a rare German MATADOR?

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Heh, even Russian sources can give controversal information

This screen claims captain of 2nd rank Vladimir Khromchenkov is alive, but still in hospital and that information about his death was a mistake

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Has an AT-4, and is the other one a rare German MATADOR?

Yes, we got 2500 items of that

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Heh, even Russian sources can give controversal information

This screen claims captain of 2nd rank Vladimir Khromchenkov is alive, but still in hospital and that information about his death was a mistake

 

LOL brings to mind the line from the Holy Grail

"I'm not quite dead yet... I feel happy!  I feel"..whack

I moved him to the WIA section for now

Edited April 16, 2022 by sburke

[sburke]

US Army using lessons from Ukraine war to aid own training (msn.com)

[Armorgunner]

On 4/15/2022 at 7:33 PM, akd said:

Strange crops growing in the fields of Ukraine this year:

Yeah Russian lollipops allover the place? 

[Kraft]

I'm surprised the media is not picking up on the use of strategic bombers on urban area. Hiding in a cellar might save a family from Grad strikes but a 3000kg bomb will remove it all the same. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Kraft

[Pete Wenman]

reported as survivors from the Moskva

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Pete Wenman

[Haiduk]

@Battlefront.com @The_Capt

Reportedly Ukrainian troops launched series of tactical counter-offensive strikes in Kharkiv and Izium area.

By opinion of military expert group "Information resistans", looks like huge problems with supply and personnel forced Russian command to reject from "Big Saturn" operation and limit themeselve with "Little Saturn" like during WWII. This means, Russians PROBABLY can't conduct second line of encirclement of JTO zone on the line Izium -Lozova -Pavlohrad - Huliaypole and will concentrate own efforts only first line of encirclement Izium - Barvinkove - Dobropillia - Pokropvsk - Velyka Novosilka or some around this line 

But either this right or not we will see in nearest days. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Someone posted this fantastic video a few days ago challenging the notion that "the tank is dead" because of what we see in this war.  It's *VERY* good and quite entertaining.  I recommend it with two thumbs up.  Except for one thing

The presenter makes an incredibly strong case that the tank, today, isn't dead.  I don't question that at all.  New threats?  Yes, but every war tends to produce one or more of these things.  As the presenter would say, it's normal.

The one shortcoming of this video is right at the end.  He lays out an excellent argument about how important it is to take into account all battlefield capabilities and assess them as a whole.  This is one reason why the Russians are doing so poorly and the Ukrainians so well when it comes to armored warfare.  The Russians aren't using all their battlefield assets in a combined way.

He also makes the excellent point that there's no existing system out there to replace the utility of the tank.  That's true.  And he makes another excellent argument that the cost of the tank isn't out of line with the costs of other systems vs. their central threat.  Also true.

The problem comes when he says he doesn't see this changing because he doesn't know of anything that can replace the tank's role on the battlefield in the future.  And here is where he's violated some of his own arguments as to why the "tank is dead" people are all wrong.

While there is no singular system that can replace a tank on the horizon, there is a component of a new combined arms force that is already practically available -> unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs).

A single UGV armed with an RWS with HMG and NLOS missiles mean a single soldier, perhaps thousands of miles away, can effectively conduct offensive operations roughly equivalent to a single tank (limitations to be noted in a sec).  In fact, I would argue it can conduct such operations much better as a UGV is vastly more maneuverable, less detectable, and more sustainable in the field than a tank.  It is also vastly cheaper to make, so the impact of losing one is far less than losing a MBT.  And with the "crew" safely on the other side of the world, you don't risk your valuable Human resources like you do with a MBT (3-4 lives at risk).  You can also more easily rotate "crew" for a UGV so that it is always up 24/7.  Hell, you can even have someone swap in to man the system while the first operator goes to take a leak or grab a bite to eat, not to mention some sleep.

Will a single UGV replace a single tank in terms of combat capabilities?  No.  But that's not the way to think about it and, as I just said, violates the well laid out arguments the presenter made.  Namely, it's not about a single component but the totality of the combined effect that matters.

Combine SGT Smith, UGV operator, with SGT Jenkins, UAV operator.  Now you have two guys with more capabilities than a modern MBT.  Add in SGT Jones, EW operator, and now you have a dedicated person maintaining an EW bubble around the UGV.  That's 3 guys who are more at risk of dying from a paper cut than combat projecting force on the battlefield equal to a MBT with a crew of 3 or 4 at constant risk of dying.

I could go on and on here, but I think you get the point.

Now, there are definitely limitations for the UGV concept.  The first is that it can't carry as much ammunition as a MBT, which means it has to be rearmed more frequently than a MBT in intense combat situations.  However, for most situations that shouldn't present much of a problem because precision weapons mean more likely to score a kill first shot.  4x current tech UGVs have the ability to defeat 8x AFVs without reloading.  I expect that will change and soon 4x UGVs might be able to destroy 16x or 24x AFVs without reloading.

With LOS missiles there is some risk of losing the UGVs, but with NLOS missiles the risk goes down dramatically.  With NLOS weapons it should be much easier to reload UGVs because they don't have to be within LOS or small arms range of the enemy.  An armored supply UGV with a Human crew (or in the not-too-distant future remote operated crane) could quickly reload and have them back in the field before the enemy had a chance to recover.

In conclusion, the tank is not dead today because there is no replacement for it.  But there is a potential replacement on the way that appears to satisfy the arguments the presenter made.

It will be interesting to examine how UGVs operate in Combat Mission vs. current conventional forces.  Someday in the near future you'll be able to come to your own conclusions, but for now let's just say the word we use to describe them is "creepy".

Steve

[panzermartin]

That's grotesque 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Reportedly Ukrainian troops launched series of tactical counter-offensive strikes in Kharkiv and Izium area.

 

Tell them to wait a few minutes!!  I don't have my popcorn ready

Steve

[chris talpas]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

That's grotesque 

Eerie how the mind sees patterns that are so fitting.  The tank turret looking like a skull is quite striking.  I could see a scaled version of this becoming some goth jewelry pendant.

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:

reported as survivors from the Moskva

 

 

@sburke

0:10-0:11 seconds of video - commander of cruiser. Alive. But still unknown is this real video or cadets "as if Moskva crew"