How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

13 minutes ago, akd said:

Oh boy!

 

these idiots are yelling about "now we'll have to go to war!".  It's an insane asylum!

[Peregrine]

14 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire.  First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva.    They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.

Long time since I have played Harpoon and I have no idea what other shipping is in the area (there must be some based on rescue reports) but firing BOL then having a missile hit whatever ever it sees can be a risky way to make an attack if you are after a specific unit in a space that has commercial traffic.

[Commanderski]

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, akd said:

I think the Admiral Essen was also operating in the same area, but they may have been positioned to maximize the AD umbrella they were providing for land forces, rather than for each other. Not sure any of the other BSF ships matter.

M was 60km south of Odessa when hit, so more likely blockading the southern trade routes. No significant land forces in range to protect.

This position also possibly helps explain why it was hit - to crack the blockade, force the BSF back and allow cargo ships in to Odessa. Thence probably why ASMs were requested - not to hit the BSF as such (although obviously the target) but to open the sea routes and start the process of reviving Ukraine's collapsed Economy. Still gotta deal with the BSF's submarines though.

UKR lacks any usable Anti Sub vessels or systems so the only option is to hit the docklands (which if done right would also take out the handful of ships under repair. 

The timing now would be ideal, as probably a third of the RUS subs will be at sea and the others will be tied up or in dock getting refueled/refitted/ rested since being on patrol since the start of the war.

Trash the docks, you trash the fleet.

It has no where else to go, that can hold it together as a unit, support it and protect it.

Hell, trash the docklands warehouses only and you'd start seeing drifting RUS warships in about two weeks.

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kinophile

[danfrodo]

+1 for Commanderski, out of likes. 

[db_zero]

37 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Looks like regular, the testing scenario also incorrectly put the scenario at day time, clear weather condition. 

I did a testing myself. Even with correct parameter, night time, heavy rain , sea state 5, a novice Moskva can easily defeat a salvo of 16 subsonic Harpoonski.

An EMCON D Moskva can detect the ASM at 16nm away and begin the engagement at 12nm away.

An EMCON A Moskva first detect ASM at 10nm away , the ASM turn on the weapon seeker radar there, broadcast their presence to Moskva . With a 18 seconds OODA cool down SAM left the tube at 7nm away. Most of ASM will be intercepted.

 

But, there is one trick to make a two Harpoonski strike successfully penetrate a radar silence Moskva's defense. Don't use automatic fire. Use BoL fire.  First do a calculation to predict where the Moskva will be when the ASM reach that area. Mark a point on the map then make the ASM aim at that point , in BOL mode ASM will turn on their radar there. It is supposed to be somewhere very close to Moskva.    They will hit the Moskva before her OODA cool down.

There are just so many variables and when you factor in the random dice and other factors you come up with all sorts of results.

 

 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by db_zero

[The_Capt]

42 minutes ago, Huba said:

It looks like perfect Javelin country. Distances between lines of concealment are just long enough for most of infantry weapons to be largely ineffective at suppressing enemy fighters, yet close enough so you can engage vehicles with Javelins/ NLAWs as soon as those become visible. 
I'd think that ideally you'd like to bombard every next treeline (or two) with indirect fire before you consider advancing to it through open field. Sound quite time consuming, hard to keep your momentum this way.

All the while your LOCs are getting hit by laybacks and long range strike because you do not have the forces to secure or an ability to screen enemy ISR.  So you run out of arty ammo after the first day and now have to dismount infantry to sweep every tree line, taking hits the whole way.  With patchwork units glued together out of remnants and newbies who have had a weekend to train together.  What could possibli go wrong.

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

All the while your LOCs are getting hit by laybacks and long range strike because you do not have the forces to secure or an ability to screen enemy ISR.  So you run out of arty ammo after the first day and now have to dismount infantry to sweep every tree line, taking hits the whole way.  With patchwork units glued together out of remnants and newbies who have had a weekend to train together.  What could possibli go wrong.

sounds like a very painful CM game.  Defended tree line after defended tree line. 

[Machor]

22 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

firing BOL then having a missile hit whatever ever it sees can be a risky way to make an attack if you are after a specific unit in a space that has commercial traffic.

And that - rather than acting as a distraction - may have been the key mission of the TB2.

[akd]

Different cut of same ****?

 

[db_zero]

According to this report the Moskva was sailing in a predictable path that made it easy picking.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10720215/Russias-Black-Sea-flagship-Moskva-SUNK-Moscows-defence-agency-admits.html

 

[Machor]

Erm, the parallels we've been drawing on the forum with the Russo-Japanese War are bizarrely becoming closer:

What are they going to do now - send in the Baltic Fleet? Oh wait!

It wasn't just nukes that sank with the Moskva:

 

[Kinophile]

Why is she wearing her dad's shirt?

I guess sanctions are hitting harder than we thought.

[asurob]

12 minutes ago, akd said:

Different cut of same ****?

 

Did these bozos forget they are at war with Ukraine.  All's fair.  

[Kinophile]

@The_Capt et al - a few weeks ago I went around the Dnipro/Donbass potential AO on Google maps, to get a feel for the terrain. It was maddening - bloody tree line somewhere, everywhere, always.

The rolling open steppe of myth is just that - a myth. There's some open Hills etc but they're not nearly enough to justify our impressions.

A far closer example would be the demo mission from CMBS, esp. now with Spring.

[LongLeftFlank]

6 hours ago, Huba said:

Edit: on the other hand, maybe huge, indisputable defeat on the battlefield is what Russia really needs, instead of rotten compromise peace that would only prop the "knife in the back" narrative not unlike in interbellum Germany.

Nailed. It.

I am starting to think that total destruction of Russian ground forces in Ukraine with televised commander surrenders, including full restoration of the Don river frontier, PLUS a threat to retake Crimea is pretty much the only thing that is going to sink in with these people at this point.

My money is on Russian media deciding that perfidious Yankee / British imperialists were the ones who sank the Moskva and then making more noises about escalation. That's all a lot more palatable to Russians that admitting those pig farmers did it, or that it was yet another blunder by your own forces.

Edited April 15, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So you run out of arty ammo after the first day and now have to dismount infantry to sweep every tree line, taking hits the whole way.  With patchwork units glued together out of remnants and newbies who have had a weekend to train together. 

And you don't even have enough of those.

+1 @Chibot Mk IX, thank you

Edited April 15, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, sross112 said:

There have been a couple references to why the RA didn't take out the bridges over the Dnepr on day 1. Personally I think it was because they planned a swift 3 day war and it was over. They didn't want to destroy infrastructure that they would need in the long run.

I think this is pretty much a certainty.  Russia didn't start nailing infrastructure until, what, the 2nd week?  And by then it was clear that the ground war had failed, so the shift is consistent with the notion.

Steve

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt et al - a few weeks ago I went around the Dnipro/Donbass potential AO on Google maps, to get a feel for the terrain. It was maddening - bloody tree line somewhere, everywhere, always.

The rolling open steppe of myth is just that - a myth. There's some open Hills etc but they're not nearly enough to justify our impressions.

A far closer example would be the demo mission from CMBS, esp. now with Spring.

I think I am going to take an MS Flight Simulator spin over the area,  maybe take some screenshots.  

[sross112]

27 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt et al - a few weeks ago I went around the Dnipro/Donbass potential AO on Google maps, to get a feel for the terrain. It was maddening - bloody tree line somewhere, everywhere, always.

The rolling open steppe of myth is just that - a myth. There's some open Hills etc but they're not nearly enough to justify our impressions.

A far closer example would be the demo mission from CMBS, esp. now with Spring.

Whenever anyone references the steppes I envision western Kansas. These descriptions sound more like a Normandy light. Definitely a lot of defensive opportunities but probably still bad terrain for support units as it is so difficult to hide nowadays.

 

[chris talpas]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think I am going to take an MS Flight Simulator spin over the area,  maybe take some screenshots.  

It really is an amazing piece of software.  Fun to explore the world and as you indicated it gives a very realistic depiction of the earth.  Seeing the terrain really helps in understanding how the battlefield will be impacted by it.

[Battlefront.com]

I know this was posted a few pages ago, but I'm posting it again because it is that important to watch.  In the future instead of typing up a bunch of reasons that the Russian economy can't support a prolonged war, or even take care of its people long term, I'm just going to link to this video and request people watch it.

Brilliant stuff:

Steve

[danfrodo]

Night falls again in Ukraine and another day has passed without the great Russian offensive.  Getting to be a pattern. 

Sinking the Moskva is great fun, of course, but the most telling news for me today was a bunch more arrests of various officers, including a naval officer.  Yessirree, this warms my heart.  Keep eating your own, Putin.  So he's either paranoid or there's actually people out to get him.  One doesn't jail this many just to take the blame for failure, only need a couple high up scapegoats for that.

 

[db_zero]

Sounds like Mother Nature is against Putin. Seeing reports there is unusually heavy rain in Ukraine.

[sburke]

Frustrating when your threats are for things you've already done...

Lithuania Shrugs Off Russia's Threat to Deploy Nukes to the Baltics (businessinsider.com)