How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

In fairness, the Moskva was flagship for to its size, public visibility and weaponry. But in terms of capabilities, the smaller more modern ships are quite dangerous enough. 

Still, buh-bye amphibious ops.

Moskva had only one useful ability - own S-300F SAM, which allowed to make 75 km umbrella over group of ships

Edited April 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Just now, sburke said:

true, but the PR value is off the chart.  No matter how Russia spins this for home consumption - even if they say it was due to issues on the ship itself, it is still a huge blow to any sense of Russia's military superiority. 

It was sunk by our own drunk, idiotic, and undisciplined sailors is perhaps the worst excuse in human history. At least have the sense to claim it hit a mine.

I think the fifty were rescued by a Turkish ship of some description, it is too early to assume that is all the survivors. There were seevral ships flitting around the sinking wreck. I am laughing at the tidal wave of reasons the rescued sailors are spouting for why the should just dropped in Istanbul with a little pocket money, instead of fed back into the Ukrainian meat grinder as the worlds least competent, least happy infantry.

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Whomever is running their naval ops is amazing. The Berdyanka strike, Mosckva sinking...what's next? Sebastopol naval facilities?

Blowing up the Kerch strait bridge.

[Kinophile]

Yah I've mentioned that previously, but thats a target that youd want to time right, eg if attacking into Crimea OR cutting it off.

Naval facilities would be serious hit, if you can hit the docks and esp the admin buildings during work hours. All ships suffer wear and tear constantly, and the Black Sea is particularly hard on hulls/superstructure. Remove/degrade the ability to repair ships and the fleet will steadily rot in place.

And sailors hate being idle.

Hello Kronstadt...

Edited April 14, 2022 by Kinophile

[akd]

 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Moskva had only one useful ability - own S-300F SAM, which allowed to make 75 km umbrella over group of ships

How much anti-air/anti missile capability do the capability do the remaining Russian ships in the Black Sea have? And how much of the total missile magazine capacity was the Moskva? Are they just going to have remain 150 miles from the Ukrainian controlled coast for the rest of the war?

[FancyCat]

I wonder how the naval personnel who defected in 2014 feel about the course of the war, 8 years later, do any of the former Ukrainian navy still serve in Crimea or the Black Sea Fleet? 

If Turkish, or Romanian ships had to rescue sailors, I really hope we get some photos of the warship soon. 

[The Steppenwulf]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 Are they just going to have remain 150 miles from the Ukrainian controlled coast for the rest of the war?

I'm sure max range of the Neptune is around 300km, so that's a considerably greater 'stand off' from the UKR coast.

[MikeyD]

The sinking of Moscova brings up memories of the sinking of HMS Hood in 1941.

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Blowing up the Kerch strait bridge.

This is super hard to achieve though, even with cruise missiles. 

Some days there was info about Ukrainian run ship that ran as part of convoy to Rostov on Don, and tried to make a run to Mariupol, ultimately failing though. I wonder how viable would be to have the same ship loaded with explosives to just ram and destroy the crossing under the Kerch bridge. Probalby not that possible, especially after the mentioned attempt alarmed the Russian side. It is a fascinating scenario though.

[Gpig]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is super hard to achieve though, even with cruise missiles. 

Some days there was info about Ukrainian run ship that ran as part of convoy to Rostov on Don, and tried to make a run to Mariupol, ultimately failing though. I wonder how viable would be to have the same ship loaded with explosives to just ram and destroy the crossing under the Kerch bridge. Probalby not that possible, especially after the mentioned attempt alarmed the Russian side. It is a fascinating scenario though.

Perhaps an Operation Chariot

St Nazaire Raid WWII

 

[Kinophile]

6 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The sinking of Moscova brings up memories of the sinking of HMS Hood in 1941.

More like the Royal Oak. A ship well past its prime, but a significant publicity loss all the same.

[Huba]

Just now, Gpig said:

Perhaps an Operation Chariot

St Nazaire Raid WWII

 

That was the inspiration for the idea

[Der Zeitgeist]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

This is super hard to achieve though, even with cruise missiles. 

Some days there was info about Ukrainian run ship that ran as part of convoy to Rostov on Don, and tried to make a run to Mariupol, ultimately failing though. I wonder how viable would be to have the same ship loaded with explosives to just ram and destroy the crossing under the Kerch bridge. Probalby not that possible, especially after the mentioned attempt alarmed the Russian side. It is a fascinating scenario though.

You bribe an underpaid railway worker to put a package in a certain railcar when the next train with artillery munitions is scheduled to go across the bridge.

[Huba]

Shh, don't warn the Russkies  It is a brilliant idea though, even simpler then the ship, just use DHL ( or whatever shipping company is operating there.

[Fenris]

27 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Absolutely, @sburke, absolutely.

Ukraine seems to take that as a challenge.

Whomever is running their naval ops is amazing. The Berdyanka strike, Mosckva sinking...what's next? Sebastopol naval facilities?

 

When I picked up reading this thread this morning I was disappointed to read that the Moskva was being towed etc. But now I've caught up I see that she's not just out of the fight, she's out for good.  Well done.  Well done indeed.  As mentioned up thread, as a figurehead, the optics of sinking should be invaluable.

[Lurb]

This was posted mere hours before the strike on the Moskva. Fun to read if a bit dated 

https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Someone had mentioned earlier it was interesting to see the naval aspects discussed.  I went over and visited the Matrix Games Command Modern Operations forum and found this:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=10201&t=382814

Refreshingly, like in other matters related this this war, this forum is leading the way in terms of both quality and timeliness of information.   THE CMO analysis at this moment lags behind.

Well done everyone!

Good link, thank you

[chrisl]

44 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From a trusted source in Kiev who has been keeping up on the news:

• Sources said 50 sailors were rescued from the Muskova, leaving a potential 500 in the water to drown or going down with the ship.
• the Muskova might have had nukes on board
• a bunch of Marines made it out of Mariupol to the Ukrainian lines near Zaporizhia
• the several villages that were liberated north of Kherson were in the Bashtanka area, which is in the northern extent of Russian advances in that area
• possibly Dniprorudnoe is now back in Ukrainian hands.  This is on the eastern bank of the Dnepr
• more reporting of large scale refusals to fight by Russian units having recently been pulled out of northern Ukraine

Steve

The idea that it might have had nukes on board is interesting.  What are the politics/risks of a US submarine recovery team (as in the whole team, vessel and all stay submerged) retrieving things from the wreck?  It would provide some pretty valuable intel on maintenance.

[Haiduk]

19 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The sinking of Moscova brings up memories of the sinking of HMS Hood in 1941.

Yes, actually this was lucky shot, caused detonation + storm. In other conditions two Neptunes too few to sunk such class ship 

[dan/california]

https://smallwarsjournal.com/index.php/jrnl/art/why-russias-navy-ukraine-war-doomed-or-irrelevant 

This guy is in Steve's and the captn's league for getting it just exactly right.

[BeondTheGrave]

8 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The idea that it might have had nukes on board is interesting.  What are the politics/risks of a US submarine recovery team (as in the whole team, vessel and all stay submerged) retrieving things from the wreck?  It would provide some pretty valuable intel on maintenance.

Should you do it? Absolutely, 100% not. It remains the property of Russia, a premise you dont want to challenge when inevitably it becomes your turn, and anyway its now a military grave and digging up Ruskie corpses and spiriting them away is a super bad look. 

Buuuuuuuuut the US has subs like the Jimmy Carter which may be able to do this. It had done it before with the Glomar Explorer. And I suspect somewhere someone in Washington is trying to figure out how to scoop up an ASM or nuke warhead to bring back as a souvenir. If it does happen, we wont hear about it in this half of the century though. 

[The_Capt]

56 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Kiev was very different - very bad logistics bottlenecks (the western arm was off railroad) plus the Dniper flooding did a a lot to reduce their elbow room. Heavy woods straddling their tail, etc 

Donbass <-> Dnipro is a very different ball game and pitch.

Yes this is true, however those Javelins will have beautiful sight lines.  I am not sure open terrain is good news for the RA if the UA can stay ahead of them.

[db_zero]

10 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Good link, thank you

I’m surprised not more is being discussed on the Matrix boards.

CMO is a good sim. The database is extensive. Covers air as well as naval aspects and like CM a professional version is used for training.

Based off the game Harpoon. I bought my first PC just to play Harpoon. 
 

Really shouldn’t be surprised the Moskva sank. Russian damage control has always been questionable, unlike the Western navies where DC is taken very seriously. 
 

Russia ships are toting a lot of weaponry and it makes it look intimidating but also just more to go bang and burn. The designs of Russian ship especially older one have flaws.

Just like their tanks that have ammo stored in a way that is dangerous to operators.

[chris talpas]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Yes, actually this was lucky shot, caused detonation + storm. In other conditions two Neptunes too few to sunk such class ship 

I find chance often favours the bold and righteous!  My thanks to you @Haiduk for all that you have done to shed light on this barbaric and senseless attack by Russia.  The skill and valour of the Ukrainian people are an inspiration to us all.

This could be a Midway moment where the Russian fleet is essentially neutralized as a threat to land based forces and thus shifts the initiative.  I think Ukraine has taken a decisive first step in essentially breaking up Russia's sea denial/control strategy.  And to do it in a way that is especially cheeky and symbolic  -sinking Moscow and releasing a commemorative stamp that features a Ukranian solder giving the bird to the Moskva prior to the attack.

A further consideration is that Russia is unable to redeploy additional vessels into the Black Sea due to closure of the Dardanels to warships by Turkey.