How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

46 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Have to admit the possible options for someone to provide the Ukrainian Navy with the means to hand the Black Sea Fleet its very own Midway or Leyte Gulf (Tsushima Straits also works) have been in the back of my head ever since Snake Island...

I believe UK is sending Harpoon ASMs.

[sross112]

I wonder if the Ukrainian farmers have started stenciling tanks, bmps and AA vehicles on the engine housings of their tractors yet?

[Haiduk]

Boris Johnson brought a plan of military and financial aid

- 120 armored vehicles (probably armored cars or some sort of this)

- 800 NLAWs

- StarStreak 

- Anti-ship missiles 

Edited April 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

Is there any chance of this war ending with a Russia divided into 2-3 separate countries?

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there any chance of this war ending with a Russia divided into 2-3 separate countries?

This enough too good to be real. What to do with nuclear weapon? More real is "Iranian" or "N.Korean" scenaio - oil+gas in exchange on food. No hight technology export. 

Variants of elites substitution, coup, external control and derashization are utopia in presernt time and can't be implemented without direct invasion, occupation of Moscow and changing of authorities on pro-western.  

Edited April 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

41 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

 

 

I wonder what form these systems will take. I am not aware of UK having or had any Harpoon coastal defense systems.

Maybe open market or other countries to acquire the missing parts? 

I don’t see how a sea-based system integrated into a ship can just be sent off overland to Ukraine without the parent ship, sensors, etc., but I guess they figured something out.  Or more likely people are assuming that “anti-ship missile” = Harpoon, but this is really the land-based Brimstone system or something.

Edited April 9, 2022 by akd

[Holien]

Really intrigued as to how the anti shipping missiles will work for the Ukrainians. I presume NATO stock, so NATO mounts? I am not sure if they will be used anytime soon. Really hoping to be wrong and it could change the dynamic along the coast? 

[OldSarge]

Quote

It could be the Naval-launched Brimstone Sea Spear that is a maritime variant for use against swarms of small boats named Sea Spear.

The Brimstone is an air-launched ground attack missile developed by MBDA for the Royal Air Force. It was originally intended for "fire-and-forget" use against mass formations of enemy armor, using a millimetric wave (mmW) active radar homing seeker to ensure accuracy even against moving targets.

Maritime Brimstone provides a unique and unrivaled all-weather, rapid anti-swarming FIAC capability weapon, offering the naval operator the option of engaging a wide range of target types, including fast-moving individual targets in cluttered environments, in both direct and indirect fire modes.

Maritime Brimstone is the latest member of the proven Brimstone Weapon System family; building upon the successful deployment of Brimstone into front-line operations with the RAF.

https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/february/11378-ukraine-to-receive-anti-ship-missiles-from-the-uk.html

Some info on the possible choice for the UK anti-ship missile selection.

 

 

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

I don’t see how a sea-based system integrated into a ship can just be sent off overland to Ukraine without the parent ship, sensors, etc., but I guess they figured something out.  Or more likely people are assuming that “anti-ship missile” = Harpoon, but this is really the land-based Brimstone system or something.

This can be NSM too. UK before a war have started to develop a missile boat for Ukraine with NSM missiles. But NSM can be coastal-based too 

Our anti-ship missile Neptun during tests has been received targeting from US satellites via our Delta information battlefield system. Later the Malakhit radar for targeting was brought to sevice, but we can anyway get targeting for missiles from NATO assets via Delta 

Edited April 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

I don’t see how a sea-based system integrated into a ship can just be sent off overland to Ukraine without the parent ship, sensors, etc., but I guess they figured something out.  Or more likely people are assuming that “anti-ship missile” = Harpoon, but this is really the land-based Brimstone system or something.

I would have to check, but I think I have heard of Harpoon shore batteries somewhere (Norway, perhaps? Just a guess...) I also gather they are pretty easy to install, during Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Canadian Restigouche-class destroyers that didn't normally have anti-ship missiles were temporarily refitted with them.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there any chance of this war ending with a Russia divided into 2-3 separate countries?

Anything is possible.  Could even be more than that.  However, I don't think it is likely for the near term.

What is more likely is a weakening of Moscow's control over the day-to-day governance of various places.  Many of these regions used to have more autonomy than they do now.  In particular the regional heads are now appointed by Putin instead of elected by their subjects.  Putin deliberately clamped down as part of his ever tightening grip on power.  I'm sure they would like to have more power back:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2018/09/29/putins-managed-democracy-falters-a63030

https://www.rferl.org/a/1093957.html

Steve

[OldSarge]

4 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

I would have to check, but I think I have heard of Harpoon shore batteries somewhere (Norway, perhaps? Just a guess...) I also gather they are pretty easy to install, during Desert Shield and Desert Storm, Canadian Restigouche-class destroyers that didn't normally have anti-ship missiles were temporarily refitted with them.

There is a truck mounted version of the Harpoon for shore use, I'm not sure what range it has but generally it would be between 65 and 80 nmi. That would ruin the Black Sea fleet's day.

[DesertFox]

.

Edited April 9, 2022 by DesertFox

[keas66]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I think the time has come for NATO to go all in. Send in troops and let Putin decide whether he want a full scale war. What's all the talk about freedom and democracy worth if we let all of this happen? Let's call their bluff.

In the same way the Allies declared that only an unconditional surrender was possible on the part of the Axis  in WW2 , I think the West needs to adopt the same attitude towards Russia  .

This half way house  position of still trading with Russia for Energy supplies while making mock horrified noises  at each new War Crime revealed  is simply monstrous and removes any semblance of superiority the West has over Russia in my eyes . We act like the Ukrainians are going to handle this on their own ( with our weapons )  and cross our fingers waiting for Russia to back down .

In the words of the Dude (ex-Bush ) :

 

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by keas66

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

There is a truck mounted version of the Harpoon for shore use, I'm not sure what range it has but generally it would be between 65 and 80 nmi. That would ruin the Black Sea fleet's day.

how does one set targets for these?  Drone?  Satellite?  AWACS?  Once UKR gets over these horizon anti-ship missiles it's gonna be fun fun fun fun

[Taranis]

 

[MikeyD]

I predict Russia will basically turn into North Korea by the end of this. Belligerent, paranoid, insular, and brutal to its own citizens out of fear of what would happen if it  loosens the screws.

[Taranis]

[Vacillator]

Following up on that, while I would normally class The Sun as sabre-rattlers etc. this piece is a moving and I think neutral (if you can be) view of a particular location:

 

[danfrodo]

videos above:  Yet more wrecked gear.  So as UKR forces move more & more into the liberated areas I wonder how much the vehicle count will increase?  This is crazy, how can these units even function after these losses -- oh, wait, they can't.

[chris talpas]

49 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Is there any chance of this war ending with a Russia divided into 2-3 separate countries?

Check this out from around 21:30 onwards where it discusses regional governors beginning to put their regions first in order to protect their own butts.

 

[Maquisard manqué]

24 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I predict Russia will basically turn into North Korea by the end of this. Belligerent, paranoid, insular, and brutal to its own citizens out of fear of what would happen if it  loosens the screws.

I liked but It’s basically already there isn’t it? Anyone protesting gets beaten or bullied out of a job. Any opposition is incarcerated or assassinated. The democratic system is as perverted as possible, with no barrier to indefinite rule by Putin/his heir (tbc). The media are gagged and any dissent is literally illegal.

Maybe you mean more that the current and growing isolation will endure & harden? I’m not being snarky. What else could there be though?

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Seems like a good time to repost (part of) this great comment from early in this thread (and very early in the war).

While no doubt the author will refine it further in time, I find 'Collision of Certainties' has held up a lot better as a basic 'theory of the war' to date than the Who's Winning 'discounted he-said-she-said' scorekeeping approach in the video posted above. And I mean no disrespect to the analyst - his observations make sense but don't truly capture what's driving this conflict.

Atrocities notwithstanding, this isn't (yet) a total war or a vernichtungsschlacht, so pure winning-losing metrics don't apply.

Wow, hard to believe that was only 40 days ago.  I would caveat that this is a descriptive theory, not a prescriptive one.  Descriptive theories assist in orientation and allow us to better understand "what we are seeing", while prescriptive ones offer "rules for successful execution" and offer some predictive qualities (e.g. Clausewitzian attacking centers of gravity).  I have never really bought off on prescriptive military theory to be honest as it either has to be so broad as to be nearly inapplicable (see Clausewitz), or it is narrow and misses large pieces of the picture.  Descriptive theories provide a better observation reference but are not designed to predict or prescribe, we are left to figure that out on our own.

So 40 days later and what have we seen?  Well obviously both sides have been communicating across multiple mediums and in many ways.  Violence is the most obvious but we can see there are many forms of communication beyond violence in this war, narratives for example.  Even the atrocities committed by the Russian forces is a form of communication, one that I think the world has heard and understood very clearly; this will not be a clean war, because clean wars do not exist.  I think we forgot that fighting in far flung parts of the world but this one is hammering it home very clearly.  

What is interesting is the negotiation.  This is more than between the parties engaged in the war.  It is between a party and itself, and the reality it perceives in front of it; we negotiate with the future in war, an extremely uncertain future.  In the last 40 days the level of negotiation by all parties has been fascinating. 

We have watch the Russians have to renegotiate their entire envisioned end-state as the northern operational axis have collapsed.  We have watched the Russian political level negotiate with its own people by building a pretty weak argument resting on a ever increasing lattice work of falsehoods and lies.  Putin had better hope that Stalin was right about the size of the lie because even though the "first casualty of war..." and all that, the reality is that there is constant negotiation between the political and the people (Clausewitz nailed that one) but it is a highly bounded one.  As has been mentioned, culture plays no small part in framing that ongoing negotiation; however, in Russia's case the framework of lies keeps getting larger and larger, it is  matter of time before a counter-narrative starts gaining traction, much like it did during the Soviet-Afghan War.  So while Putin has had to re-negotiate his reality, he now has to try and re-negotiate that reality with an entire nation as more and more Russian soldiers "go missing" or come home in boxes.  Again, descriptive theory but where I come from this is not a particularly strong strategic position, particularly when you might need to mobilize your nation in order to pull off a weak draw by this point.

The Ukrainian negotiations have been no less startling.  I think there was a level of shock in those first four days and I would not be surprised if the Ukrainian government had a much more open position to ending this thing.  Now they have completely re-negotiated their reality and envisioned end-state:

From ISW: "Ukraine will not resume negotiations with Russia until Ukrainian and guarantor state negotiators finalize meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. Russian atrocities in Ukraine and Kremlin efforts to falsely blame Ukraine for these atrocities have reduced the willingness of the Ukrainian government and society to reach a peace agreement less than total Russian defeat"

This is not the negotiation position of warring party that is worried about losing that certainty I spoke of initially, in fact it has been reinforced.  Further, the Ukrainian government is not negotiating with its people from a position of weakness, it is one of extreme strength.  The Ukrainian people are galvanized more now, than they were back on Feb 28th.  They have sacrificed thousands and now the Russian atrocities are coming to better light they know that they are "all in" for the next decade if need be.  Further, based on what I have seen on social media, this resistance has taken root at a cultural level and I cannot describe how powerful (and dangerous for the Russians) that is.  The fact that killing Russians is being elevated to a near religious calling that will likely be taught to grandchildren is about as bad as it can get for an invader, trust me we found that out the hard way in Afghanistan.  

So what?  Well the communication will continue, now in context of re-negotiated end-states.  Negotiation is continuous and is constantly in contact with the other four elements.  What I am looking for are more signals of what that negotiation looks like.  I will say that it is never simple, it has twists and turns the longer this thing carries on.  Signals of negotiation on all levels, the texture and nature of those negotiations, what influences negotiation?  These are all things I will be tracking.

Finally on sacrifice.  Both sides have sacrificed and will continue to do so, the real question of Will comes down to "how much?"  Here Ukraine clearly has got miles of depth before they will accept "too much", particularly as more civilian massacres turn up; what is the point of "tapping out" when they are going to kill you anyway?  The Russians nearly the opposite position: "how close to the edge are they?"  I do not believe for a second that Russia has signed up for a total war but they really close to an unintended one.  The level of sacrifice to win it could soar to the hundreds of thousands as this rate, is Russia willing to pay that blood price?  The economic damage and diplomatic damage are heading to total but it will take months for them to see that in full, let alone believe it.  But the continued bleeding for a few meters of dirt in Ukraine, all projected across social media and on the internet forever is a growing cost that I am not sure the Russian government can negotiate its way out of.

Finally the West.  Well we also have to come to terms with the future and it is not the one we thought it was going to be.  We continue to communicate through proxy means, and negotiate militarily through proxy, while directly through economic and diplomacy means; however, we still are not "getting it":

https://www.reuters.com/world/un-vote-suspending-russia-human-rights-council-over-ukraine-2022-04-07/

These mechanism matter to us, not Russia or other powers like China that want to re-write the rules.  This is a laughable gesture by a creaking global order that has its head so far up its own...well you get the idea.  I have said it before, this war is terrible and costly, they all are and I don't want to downplay that, but it is the beginning of an era of "power being power" we are entering into, a Season of Mars (not Venus) that has been a long time coming.  That is bigger than this war, it has implications for the next ones.  This elevates this whole thing beyond "a local border disagreement" -as some have posited- and towards a strategic "black swan" or shock.  The implications span from the tactical through to the geopolitical, that kind of thing is rare.

[Maquisard manqué]

Oh and I forgot the rampant kleptocracy presided over by spooks turned oligarchs.

[Taranis]

 Did you noticed that ?