How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

Old T-72s are better than nothing and an old T-72 can still kill a lot of things it may run into.  Besides that, can they not be used for spare parts on upgraded models?

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Old T-72s are better than nothing and an old T-72 can still kill a lot of things it may run into.  Besides that, can they not be used for spare parts on upgraded models?

Yes, better than nothing but capability downgrade to Ukrainian current in service armor.

T-64BV vs T-72B3 works.

T-72M1 vs T-72B3 doesn't really work.

Of course situation changes when used defensively or generally carefully. For local defense troops ext.

T-72M1 is almost not worth it to use in the frontlines because it eats up a tank crew and supply just like a more capable tank.

[Fenris]

Was mainly thinking of them being used to engage anything other than russian MBTs.  Although, who knows, with the losses they've suffered maybe it'll end up being old T-72s all round.  I do agree though, not ideal.

Edited April 5, 2022 by Fenris

[CAZmaj]

New York Times (paywall)

GREAT VISUALS!!

How Kyiv Has Withstood Russia’s Attacks
By Anjali Singhvi, Charlie Smart, Mika Gröndahl and James GlanzApril 2, 2022

Russia has more troops and more firepower. Why has it failed to seize the capital?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/02/world/europe/kyiv-invasion-disaster.html?searchResultPosition=40

 

[panzermartin]

The Ukrainian T 72s (even more if they are Iraqi 03 level) will possibly have the same fate as the Russian ones. Once you go big in size in this heavily ATGM, drone and artillery ruled environment you are attracting great volumes of fire. And Russians still have plenty of that. They also still have helicopters with ATs abilities that are waiting for their chance, operating at night as I have seen in videos . UA have been successful so far using pocket force action but I'm not sure they can conduct significant armored offensive at the moment. I haven't seen a single Ukrainian mechanized unit in action for weeks to the point I wonder if all are destroyed or troops are moved in Suvs and busses for pushing fast forward . 

[CAZmaj]

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by CAZmaj

[CAZmaj]

Russian Nukes & Chem

https://riprawlings.com/2022/03/29/wzd8-russian-nukes-chem/

Edited April 5, 2022 by CAZmaj
Edit

[db_zero]

Now would be a good time to train and transfer some MLRS systems to Ukraine. They would be great for counter battery fire against the Russian artillery.

If we have any HAWK batteries in storage or someone has some that could be transferred now is the time to do it.

seems like Russia will need time to reorganize and regroup after their pullback. It takes time for the Ukrainians to learn new systems and get the necessary infrastructure to support a system like the MLRS or HAWK so do it now when there is a pause.

Many European nations use good mobile anti-ship systems so now is good time to transfer to Ukraine.

[Lethaface]

With regards to Russia's new 'tank rush' offensive, doesn't Ukraine have defenses in depth ('light' infantry with drones, ATGMs like we have already seen) which could cause heavy losses to such an attack in order to stall / demotivate it before it can properly materialize in the rear of JTO?

If the 'new' attack isn't better supported / coordinated and or still road bound, the 'exploitation' after moving through current lines is still vulnerable to the stuff we have already seen imo. Steppe terrain might be less ideal for such defense, but not impossible. 

If such new offensives quickly take heavy losses I'd expect it to not gain ground very quickly and or fail to penetrate beyond artillery range of current lines.

[kraze]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Old T-72s are better than nothing and an old T-72 can still kill a lot of things it may run into.  Besides that, can they not be used for spare parts on upgraded models?

I bet that's the idea.

According to Oryx we have captured 30 T72B3 alone and that's just with visual confirmations. And lots of other T-72 variants.

Our army is predominantly T64 based so repairing captured T-72 is a problem as you figure

[CHEqTRO]

 

[CAZmaj]

“I see their faces”: a saboteur hunter in Kyiv remembers his victims
Sasha worries that killing Russians is corroding his soul

https://www.economist.com/1843/2022/03/29/i-see-their-faces-a-saboteur-hunter-in-kyiv-remembers-his-victims

That was suppose to be my job in former YU in 1983 - 1987.

Edited April 5, 2022 by CAZmaj
format

[JonS]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

but that's void if there are forces defending the installation. And it seemed there were some troops defending it. 

That's not what a plain reading of Article 56 would suggest^. But that isn't surprising either. There are a lot of ... very wonky interpretations of the GCs running around.

 

^ Special protection is only lost IFF it provides electric power in regular, significant and direct support of military operations and if such attack is the only feasible way to terminate such support.

Note there is nothing there about the facility being defended.

Edited April 5, 2022 by JonS

[Saberwander]

22 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

Looks like Ka-52. Incredible footage. A shame it is out of view for a little while.

Stugna makers should add "record to SD card" capability to their remote control Stugna units or go even fully crazy - post to social media (with a delayed release :D).

[The_MonkeyKing]

24 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

 

Air can be very vulnerable when hovering (for example pop-up "battle positions" that are not secure like possibly in this case) or when coming directly for an attack run.

Most modern IFV and tanks have anti-aircraft mode in their firing computers. Also Javelins can shoot down hovering helicopters.

[Lethaface]

14 minutes ago, JonS said:

That's not what a plain reading of the article would suggest. But that isn't surprising either. There are some very ... wonky interpretations of the GCs running around.

Can't remember exactly what they said, but IIRC the program it was on is decent enoug (althought that doesn't mean they were correct) and they brought some legal 'expert' to shine a light on it. 

To me it sounded logical that neither parties are allowed to use the installation for military advantage. For example, it would be a bit strange if you could post a couple of Javelin teams in the building and shoot up enemy tanks from it, while doing something about that would result in a warcrime for the enemy .

Could be that the legal expert said that it was complicated and in such a case a court might well decide that it isn't fair/reasonable to declare the articles applicable to the situation. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by Lethaface

[DesertFox]

ROFL! 

 

 

[c3k]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

It is not that he can't ,but there are several layers of friction he has to deal with. First of all he has to admit that it has gone VERY badly so far. He doesn't want to do that. And then he almost has to train the trainers to turn more conscripts than the usual yearly take into even the current lousy Russian standard of soldier. Since they are apparently raiding the training schools for competent personnel now, that is even harder than usual. Then he has too equip said conscripts when 15 years of supposedly significant investment has gone up in smoke. All of these problems could be addressed, mostly, with time and enormous amounts of money. I would hazard a guess that he is a lot closer to two years to show up with a whole lot more army than he currently has, than two months, though.  Even then he would need REAL help from the Chinese to equip them with much more than rifles. Russia's supposedly vast war stocks seem to be mostly unprocessed scrap metal.

Agree with the friction and other difficulties.

The biggest issue? Putin's ego. If he thinks he's losing, and the only way to shore up the invasion is to pile Russian bodies against the bulwarks, I see him doing exactly that. 

I do not foresee the Ukrainian military having the offensive capability to push Russians out of their country...as long as the Russians just sit on the defensive. They (Russians) have been vulnerable only on the attack or when their LOCs are exposed (salients, probes, unconsolidated ground behind them).

I think the Donbas will resolve into a positional warfare situation, with attrition, not maneuver, being the prime characteristic. That will play into Putin's hand.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Seems to me like a company getting wiped by ATGM

[CAZmaj]

There’s a deep misunderstanding about what matters to Putin. It dangerously affects policy.

A German politician proved the point last night. Others, elsewhere, make the same mistake.

Putin cares about his own survival. Not Russia’s well-being.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2022 by CAZmaj
Removed wrong reference

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, panzermartin said:

I haven't seen a single Ukrainian mechanized unit in action for weeks

Chernihiv area, Kharkiv, Trostianets, Husarivka, Volnovakha, Izium. This all regular mechanized, motorized and air-assault forces. And again. Too few footage form this units. I read about two dozen of twitters of sevicemen of "regular" forces. And only several of them post short videos or at least photos. Other just write. I think, this just more tough censorship and it full absence in TD and volunteer units

[CHEqTRO]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chernihiv area, Kharkiv, Trostianets, Husarivka, Volnovakha, Izium. This all regular mechanized, motorized and air-assault forces. And again. Too few footage form this units. I read about two dozen of twitters of sevicemen of "regular" forces. And only several of them post short videos or at least photos. Other just write. I think, this just more tough censorship and it full absence in TD and volunteer units

Here is a recent example of Ukranian armored units recorded in combat. 

Althought the tweet is from today, the video was first released on the 27 of March, mind you

Edited April 5, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

With regards to Russia's new 'tank rush' offensive, doesn't Ukraine have defenses in depth ('light' infantry with drones, ATGMs like we have already seen) which could cause heavy losses to such an attack in order to stall / demotivate it before it can properly materialize in the rear of JTO?

If the 'new' attack isn't better supported / coordinated and or still road bound, the 'exploitation' after moving through current lines is still vulnerable to the stuff we have already seen imo. Steppe terrain might be less ideal for such defense, but not impossible. 

If such new offensives quickly take heavy losses I'd expect it to not gain ground very quickly and or fail to penetrate beyond artillery range of current lines.

JTO zone on Donbas has three lines of defense, but it were built mostly against eastern direction. Russians main efforts is massing from the north of JTO and with some less push on the south. This will be heavy assault-defense type battles with bigger concentrations of trops and less opportinity to maneuver with "light infantry". 

And yes, probablly some counter measures will be prepared to hit on Russian supply lines in the deep rear. But when this will be possible and with which forces I dom't know. 

For previous 1-2 days Russians could advance on Barvinkove direction and took Brazhivka village. Units of their 1st tank regiment also advanced to the neighbour village Sulyhivka, but were repelled. 

Here probably a video ot Russian tanks, burning near Sulyhivka

Also reportedly oor troops in first time used captured TOS-1A at Russian troops on Izium direction

Edited April 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

One other important thing about the Bucha massacre and its timeframe:

There were already reports of civilians being executed there more than a month ago, like, for example, these:

 

[panzermartin]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chernihiv area, Kharkiv, Trostianets, Husarivka, Volnovakha, Izium. This all regular mechanized, motorized and air-assault forces. And again. Too few footage form this units. I read about two dozen of twitters of sevicemen of "regular" forces. And only several of them post short videos or at least photos. Other just write. I think, this just more tough censorship and it full absence in TD and volunteer units

Thanks, it's true our view of this conflict is mainly footage driven