How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

"...That will show them who they are messing with!"

What taught the Russian chain of command that this was a good approach? It's not like they haven't seen people fight harder when they're faced with atrocity-perpetrating enemies; they know it "inspires" their own role models to greater heroism, after all.

I'd  blame spite and fear over any semi-rational "message sending". As has been said, when partisans are giving an occupier a hard time, the fallout for civilians can be brutal, when they're the only "targets" that can be reached. Still a war crime though. Obv.

[kraze]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Such things are a distraction.  The logistics requirements to have Ukrainians operate these vehicles effectively is outside of the scope of their current needs.  Even if they sent a ton of spare parts with each Marder, who is going to fix them? 

Even sending them Slovak or Polish modified T-72s has some issues that come with it.  Lots of modifications that Ukrainian tank crews and mechanics are unfamiliar with.  I also doubt any of the data/instruction plates inside are in Ukrainian.  However, the tanks are more similar than not.  Ukraine can put these to good use.  Same with former Soviet aircraft... different but not alien.

Sending Marders is as flawed as those suggesting giving Ukrainians F-16s or Patriots.  After the war is over?  Sure, that is a great idea and I fully endorse that and more.  But what Ukraine needs now is stuff they already know how to use and keep running.

Steve

The general issue here is political behavior of Germany more than anything else. Trying to stall sanctions, trying to maneuver around them and finding excuses to keep dealing with Russia, while pretending they care, is what makes it so painful to see.

Not to mention that whole "turning off Swift for russians? Sanctions? Your country will be over in a few hours" disgrace while actively blocking weapon shipments beforehand.

Should at least be honest.

[Battlefront.com]

I know we are all trying to process the horrors of the short Russian occupation, but I think it is important to take a few minutes and recognize the enormity of the situation that has uncovered them...

The Russians just gave up about 25-33% of the area they occupied because they could not hold it.

Let that thought sink in a bit.

 

 

This retreat (that is the proper term for it) should make it clearly obvious to even the most reluctant experts that Russia has lost the war.  No more talk of "operational pause" or "regrouping for a new attack" or even the irksome "stalemate" should be tollerated.  Anybody who says any of this crap from now on is officially not an "expert" in my view, but some sort of hack that had previously tricked people into thinking he knew something about warfare.

There is still a lot of fight left in the Russians, and Ukraine is still at risk of significant military casualties, but there can no longer be any doubt that Russia's ability to wage war against Ukraine is rapidly coming to an end.

I will say this right here and now.  Even if Russia managed to drive south from Izium into the rear of Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas line, it won't do them any good.  Russia does not have the military strength remaining to drive south and defend itself on two sides while it attacks from one or both.  The supply route from Izium isn't good enough to support a large drive even if the forces were available.

The worst case is that for a short time the Ukrainian units on the Donbas line get cut off.  What will they do?  Surrender?  No.  They'd break out.  It would be a messy and very bloody series of battles, for sure, but they would take down a lot of Russians in the process.

Russia lost the war within the first few days of the start.  We already passed the high water mark and now we're seeing the Russian offensive collapse.  Maybe not catastrophically as I personally hoped it would, but collapse none-the-less.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Steve the Ukrainians want to pay for those tanks. They are fully aware of all those logistic and maintanance problems which accompany them. But the germans refuse and decide to pay for their demilitarisation instead of selling them.

I'm saying it's not something we should focus on.  It doesn't help Ukraine in the short term so it is not relevant.  And no, I don't think Ukraine has the capacity to put these into meaningful service short term.  Ukraine would be better off insisting on the BMP-1s getting delivered right away without any frigging around.  Have them on a train to the Polish border right now.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Do you think Mariupol will be able to hold out?

I think it can hold out for months. Just look at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Fallujah
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Homs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aleppo_(2012–2016) (parts of this)

I am even holding out hope for successful relive effort by Ukraine.

Mariupol was encircled surprisingly fast without significant casualties. This might tell it was planned to let it go under siege. Maybe suicidal effort to attrition the enemy, or maybe Ukrainians were planning to break the siege when enemy has bled enough.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

The general issue here is political behavior of Germany more than anything else. Trying to stall sanctions, trying to maneuver around them and finding excuses to keep dealing with Russia, while pretending they care, is what makes it so painful to see.

Not to mention that whole "turning off Swift for russians? Sanctions? Your country will be over in a few hours" disgrace while actively blocking weapon shipments beforehand.

Should at least be honest.

I think Germany is still struggling with their messaging, on that I agree.  But they are moving on so many issues that even a month ago nobody thought they would budge on.  So while I still fault them for having some lingering problems with getting their priorities straight, I do think it is wise to acknowledge how far they have come in such a short period of time.

I think the bigger test of German commitment is the fast transfer of the BMP-1s.  That has immediate practical value to Ukraine and Germany can either speed it up or slow it down.  That is vastly more important to watch than the Marder sideshow.

Steve

[kraze]

11 minutes ago, womble said:

What taught the Russian chain of command that this was a good approach? It's not like they haven't seen people fight harder when they're faced with atrocity-perpetrating enemies; they know it "inspires" their own role models to greater heroism, after all.

I'd  blame spite and fear over any semi-rational "message sending". As has been said, when partisans are giving an occupier a hard time, the fallout for civilians can be brutal, when they're the only "targets" that can be reached. Still a war crime though. Obv.

About "role models."

Russian "role models" are their war criminals from WW2.

Remember - Russia started WW2 with nazis, they murdered, raped and looted their way through half the Europe in just the same way nazis did, while also committing horrible atrocities against own "liberated" population.

So it should not be surprising why they are what they are - when their generations grow up worshipping the likes of Zhukov, who himself, being a marshall of USSR, looted personally.

Edited April 3, 2022 by kraze

[Kraft]

By the way, today we crossed 400 visually confirmed russian MBTs and almost 2400* vehicles total lost in ukraine.

*With the footnote that Oryx has a massive +150 backlog of vehicles and many losses in Mariupol have not being publicised as the defenders get pushed further into the city and civilians are either dead or occupied with more pressing issues relating to survival.

And of course not every vehicle on the front being photographed in the first place.

It really depends on what you assume russia went in with in the first place but taking 1200 tanks, we are on our way to 40% losses..

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Perhaps they are keeping them in reserve for the Bundeswehr in case the balloon goes up?

I dont think so. However:

Keine deutschen »Marder«-Schützenpanzer für die Ukraine
18.12 Uhr: Die Ukraine erhält nach Informationen der »Welt« keine deutschen Schützenpanzer vom Typ »Marder«, die sie bei der Bundeswehr angefragt hat. Verteidigungsministerin Christine Lambrecht (SPD) habe die Anfrage aus Kiew abschlägig beschieden, berichtete das Onlineportal am Sonntag. Das Verteidigungsministerium habe dies bestätigt und erklärt, alle eigenen Schützenpanzer seien in Nato-Verpflichtungen gebunden. Über eine »Herauslösung« wäre daher auch im Rahmen der Allianz zu entscheiden. In einem Schreiben, das am Mittwoch vergangener Woche im Verteidigungsministerium einging und der »Welt« vorliegt, hatte der ukrainische Verteidigungsminister um die Überlassung von 100 Schützenpanzern vom Typ »Marder« und anderen schweren Waffen gebeten.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-ukraine-krieg-die-news-eu-kuendigt-nach-butscha-weitere-sanktionen-an-a-81d2a515-9ee2-40ab-ab1b-b58da68d10c7

Translation via Google:

No German »Marder« armored personnel carriers for the Ukraine
6:12 p.m .: According to information from “Welt”, Ukraine is not receiving any German “Marder” armored personnel carriers, which it has requested from the Bundeswehr. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) rejected the request from Kyiv, the online portal reported on Sunday. The Ministry of Defense has confirmed this and stated that all of its own infantry fighting vehicles are bound by NATO obligations. A "separation" would therefore also have to be decided within the framework of the alliance. In a letter that was received by the Ministry of Defense on Wednesday last week and is available to the "Welt", the Ukrainian Defense Minister asked for the transfer of 100 "Marder" infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons. 
 

[Aragorn2002]

41 minutes ago, kraze said:

The general issue here is political behavior of Germany more than anything else. Trying to stall sanctions, trying to maneuver around them and finding excuses to keep dealing with Russia, while pretending they care, is what makes it so painful to see.

Not to mention that whole "turning off Swift for russians? Sanctions? Your country will be over in a few hours" disgrace while actively blocking weapon shipments beforehand.

Should at least be honest.

Germany is awake now and started the great clean up. It's not just Germany. The whole West, the US included, blundered. But the real blame lies in Moscow and Bejing, let's not forget that. Let's close the ranks. And let the Ukraine realize the West is doing what it can. Without that help things would look a lot worse for Ukraine.

Besides, if you look at it realistically there wasn't that much the West could have done to prevent this war. 

Edited April 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Kraft]

9 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think it can hold out for months. Just look at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Battle_of_Fallujah
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Homs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Aleppo_(2012–2016) (parts of this)

I am even holding out hope for successful relive effort by Ukraine.

Mariupol was encircled surprisingly fast without significant casualties. This might tell it was planned to let it go under siege. Maybe suicidal effort to attrition the enemy, or maybe Ukrainians were planning to break the siege when enemy has bled enough.

According to Azov defenders are already low on everything from water to food and ammo.

With the significant ukrainian losses being posted on pro russian telegrams and territorial losses geo located I am less optimistic but I hope history will prove me wrong.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Kraft

[The_MonkeyKing]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I know we are all trying to process the horrors of the short Russian occupation, but I think it is important to take a few minutes and recognize the enormity of the situation that has uncovered them...

The Russians just gave up about 25-33% of the area they occupied because they could not hold it.

Let that thought sink in a bit.

 

 

This retreat (that is the proper term for it) should make it clearly obvious to even the most reluctant experts that Russia has lost the war.  No more talk of "operational pause" or "regrouping for a new attack" or even the irksome "stalemate" should be tollerated.  Anybody who says any of this crap from now on is officially not an "expert" in my view, but some sort of hack that had previously tricked people into thinking he knew something about warfare.

There is still a lot of fight left in the Russians, and Ukraine is still at risk of significant military casualties, but there can no longer be any doubt that Russia's ability to wage war against Ukraine is rapidly coming to an end.

I will say this right here and now.  Even if Russia managed to drive south from Izium into the rear of Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas line, it won't do them any good.  Russia does not have the military strength remaining to drive south and defend itself on two sides while it attacks from one or both.  The supply route from Izium isn't good enough to support a large drive even if the forces were available.

The worst case is that for a short time the Ukrainian units on the Donbas line get cut off.  What will they do?  Surrender?  No.  They'd break out.  It would be a messy and very bloody series of battles, for sure, but they would take down a lot of Russians in the process.

Russia lost the war within the first few days of the start.  We already passed the high water mark and now we're seeing the Russian offensive collapse.  Maybe not catastrophically as I personally hoped it would, but collapse none-the-less.

Steve

You and Michael are getting close to each other by the day. (Michael doing most of the moving)

[MikeyD]

10 minutes ago, womble said:

What taught the Russian chain of command that this was a good approach?

As Clausewitz famously said, 'war is politics pursued by other means'. And the Russian brand of politics has a century long tradition of unimaginable brutality. Poisonings, beatings, murders of entire familiies, savage repression, gulags. Its all of a piece.

[Aragorn2002]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I dont think so. However:

Keine deutschen »Marder«-Schützenpanzer für die Ukraine
18.12 Uhr: Die Ukraine erhält nach Informationen der »Welt« keine deutschen Schützenpanzer vom Typ »Marder«, die sie bei der Bundeswehr angefragt hat. Verteidigungsministerin Christine Lambrecht (SPD) habe die Anfrage aus Kiew abschlägig beschieden, berichtete das Onlineportal am Sonntag. Das Verteidigungsministerium habe dies bestätigt und erklärt, alle eigenen Schützenpanzer seien in Nato-Verpflichtungen gebunden. Über eine »Herauslösung« wäre daher auch im Rahmen der Allianz zu entscheiden. In einem Schreiben, das am Mittwoch vergangener Woche im Verteidigungsministerium einging und der »Welt« vorliegt, hatte der ukrainische Verteidigungsminister um die Überlassung von 100 Schützenpanzern vom Typ »Marder« und anderen schweren Waffen gebeten.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/russland-ukraine-krieg-die-news-eu-kuendigt-nach-butscha-weitere-sanktionen-an-a-81d2a515-9ee2-40ab-ab1b-b58da68d10c7

Translation via Google:

No German »Marder« armored personnel carriers for the Ukraine
6:12 p.m .: According to information from “Welt”, Ukraine is not receiving any German “Marder” armored personnel carriers, which it has requested from the Bundeswehr. Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) rejected the request from Kyiv, the online portal reported on Sunday. The Ministry of Defense has confirmed this and stated that all of its own infantry fighting vehicles are bound by NATO obligations. A "separation" would therefore also have to be decided within the framework of the alliance. In a letter that was received by the Ministry of Defense on Wednesday last week and is available to the "Welt", the Ukrainian Defense Minister asked for the transfer of 100 "Marder" infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons. 
 

I think it's a wise decision actually to keep them in Germany. The replacements (Pumas) will take more time to arrive in force and the Marders can also be sold to other NATO countries. This is not just about Ukraine, we also have a lot of catching up to do in Germany, Netherlands and other countries. Harsh but true. Ukraine is going to survive this. Even I am beginning to believe that. Those Marders can help to equip a couple of German or dutch brigades. And after the discovered attrocities Ukraine will soon recieve more weapons from the West it can handle. The die is cast.

Edited April 3, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[SteelRain]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Can´t get my head around those german idiots...

 

 

That post shows the danger of social media. A random jerk venting on 2 Images without proper knowledge.

Please question yourself how old are those pictures?
They are form an newspaper article released in 2014.

What condition are the vehicles in?
Probably in a really bad one, cause they stood there without cover, stripped of weapons and all useful stuff before they were parked. The facility in Rockensußra is specialised on scrap metal recycling, so what you see are only Marder hulls.
Refurbishing them will cost more than buying new IFV's.

And finally all @Battlefront.com mentioned applies here such as logistics, training,..

Edited April 3, 2022 by SteelRain

[The_MonkeyKing]

6 minutes ago, Kraft said:

According to Azov defenders are already low on everything from water to food and ammo.

With the significant ukrainian losses being posted on pro russian telegrams and territorial losses geo located I am less optimistic but I hope history will prove me wrong.

I admit. My hopeful opinion is just that, a hopeful one.

I am seeing  same trend with Mariupol as elsewhere in Ukraine. First it was falling with in days and now it has been falling within days for a month... And couple of days ago we found out Ukrainians have been flying transport helo missions there still... Also only gains made on Mariupol side of the Donbas front have been Ukrainian. Yes, small ones but still.

• Geolocations are only few and Cities are jungles. You can secure streets and get surprisingly deep without wider control.
• What Azov or Ukr says is what is best for them on the ground. I can see it beneficial for them to seem weak there.

[kraze]

8 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Germany is awake now and started the great clean up. It's not just Germany. The whole West, the US included, blundered. But the real blame lies in Moscow and Bejing, let's not forget that. Let's close the ranks. And let the Ukraine realize the West is doing what it can. Without that help things would look a lot worse for Ukraine.

I completely agree and I won't say that West isn't helping. The help is great and makes a real difference.

However in retrospective the likes of Merkel aren't blameless for what's happening today as German government, for example, was saving Russia in 2014 from worse punishment and heavily downplaying the 2014 invasion and occupation, not to mention trying to hinder any military help to Ukraine over the past 8 years.

[DesertFox]

13 minutes ago, SteelRain said:

That post shows the danger of social media. A random jerk venting on 2 Images without proper knowledge.

Please question yourself how old are those pictures?
They are form an newspaper article released in 2014.

What condition are the vehicles in?
Probably in a really bad one, cause they stood there without cover, stripped of weapons and all useful stuff before they were parked. The facility in Rockensußra is specialised on scrap metal recycling, so what you see are only Marder hulls.
Refurbishing them will cost more than buying new IFV's.

And finally all @Battlefront.com mentioned applies here such as logistics, training,..

Nope you have your information wrong. Alot of them were put out of action 2020, when the Batallions received their Pumas.

[dan/california]

Sending Marders is as flawed as those suggesting giving Ukrainians F-16s or Patriots.  After the war is over?  Sure, that is a great idea and I fully endorse that and more.  But what Ukraine needs now is stuff they already know how to use and keep running.

 

Hence my vote for mortars with PGMs, I guarantee anyone who has already been trained on a mortar could figure out the specifics in a day.

[Kraft]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

However in retrospective the likes of Merkel aren't blameless for what's happening today as German government, for example, was saving Russia in 2014 from worse punishment and heavily downplaying the 2014 invasion and occupation, not to mention trying to hinder any military help to Ukraine over the past 8 years.

I think with the exception of far left and far right the majority of polititians and population agree with that. Even still, majority think sanctions and weapon supplies do not go far enough today.

My opinion: politicians have kept major supplies like tanks off the table in the first weeks to have cards to play in reaction to foreseeable war crimes like the current ones. Otherwise they would have no response besides we cant risk own boots on the ground, which would be bad PR.

[MikeyD]

Pundits in the US media just a week ago were writing articles about giving Putin a 'graceful exit', a way to save face and declare victory because they couldn't imagine actually winning the war. A poster far back in the thread commented that the press tend to be about 3 weeks behind events on the ground

[Sarjen]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Can´t get my head around those german idiots...

 

 

They stand there in the open for at least 12 years and are more than likely in no working condition. Prone to failure and motor power is bad because the 2nd armor layer is fitted but the motors are not upgraded. Additionally the springs and suspension brake easily. Plus, Ukrainians are not trained on it, including missing spare part logistics. 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Sarjen said:

They stand there in the open for at least 12 years and are more than likely in no working condition. Prone to failure and motor power is bad because the 2nd armor layer is fitted but the motors are not upgraded. Additionally the springs and suspension brake easily. Plus, Ukrainians are not trained on it, including missing spare part logistics. 

Nah, see my earlier answer above. We are not talking about those old ones. 100 vehicles which mostly stem from the switch to Puma and are still in NATO reserve. Those are also deemed to be destroyed but were used until 2020.

[sburke]

Another one from David Axe at Forbes.  This guy actually does good reporting

This one is on the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment.  To note he points out the unit fought around Bucha and has a history of atrocities.

The Ukrainians Have Nearly Destroyed One Of The Russian Army’s Best Regiments (msn.com)

Edited April 3, 2022 by sburke

[billbindc]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That is possible too, but it is not incompatible with my theory above that this was done to send a message.  "We're pulling out, what do we do with all of these bodies?"  "Put them in the truck and let's drop them on the road on the way out of town.  That will show them who they are messing with!"  As with everything in the world, sometimes unexpected circumstances stimulates creativity.

Steve

As a strategic matter, it's entirely idiotic. Already, the word is that these war crimes show that Russia must be defanged in a definitive way which bluntly put means that Western support for a long war in the east of Ukraine just ramped up considerably and pressure from some to get Ukraine to take a bad deal has virtually evaporated. Putin's raising the costs on Russia both in this war and for long after for no appreciable gain.