How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[db_zero]

35 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

You missed one of the more important changes. He has added a battalion of infantry. Also, how are “Light Infantry” being defined? Based on my service in the USMC,I honestly wouldn’t consider a Marine Platoon, Company, or Battalion to be “Light Infantry.” 

Good points. Considering infantry could go into battle in amtracs or LAVs as well as how one defines light/medium/heavy infantry it could be all of the above depending on the circumstances. 

A while back I saw a piece of a new specialty in platoons-a tech-infantry specialist who manages the tech and drones stuff.

With the current events taking place I have to wonder if the TOE will be modified with more Javelins and perhaps NLAWS being purchased as they have different attack profiles. I would have to think development of a very light ATGM around the size and weight of the old LAW that uses a top down as well as a direct attack mode and shorter minimum arming distance has got to be on someones radar and wish list. With microchip technology being what it is many things are possible.

The addition of highly mobile anti-ship missiles with ranges in the hundreds of miles is a radical change. The last time I can recall US land forces having a dedicated anti-ship mission was the coastal defense guns back in WW2. The addition of mobile land based anti-ship batteries is going to be a game changer for navies facing the US.

Another potential area for modernization is the remaining field artillery units. The army has been testing the Palidin using shells that give them anti-missile capabilities.

[akd]

Looks like a whole company (or larger?) of well-equipped Russian troops (Rosgvardia maybe? or just wet standard uniform?) dumped their weapons (including a bunch of AK-12s), armor and loot and swam a small river in retreat:

 

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what?

It's the East and the South I'm worried about and the possible encirclement of the Ukrainian units in the East. That can still be decisive.

[Ultradave]

52 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

You missed one of the more important changes. He has added a battalion of infantry. Also, how are “Light Infantry” being defined? Based on my service in the USMC,I honestly wouldn’t consider a Marine Platoon, Company, or Battalion to be “Light Infantry.” 

"Light Infantry" is usually referring to infantry that has no mechanized (armored) vehicles. So in the US, 82d, 101st, Ranger Battalions, 9th ID - all "light infantry," regardless of the weapons that the walking infantry carries.  Just a term.

Dave

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

It's the East and the South I'm worried about and the possible encirclement of the Ukrainian units in the East. That can still be decisive.

In what sense?  Ukraine is not surrendering.  It could be decisive if UKR forces continue to batter Russia's army as it has, but I think we are well past the point of Russia achieving anything remotely decisive.

[Splinty]

1 minute ago, Ultradave said:

"Light Infantry" is usually referring to infantry that has no mechanized (armored) vehicles. So in the US, 82d, 101st, Ranger Battalions, 9th ID - all "light infantry," regardless of the weapons that the walking infantry carries.  Just a term.

Dave

For sure! But considering how much all the stuff they made us carry around weighed , "light" is just a name. lol

Edited April 2, 2022 by Splinty

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like a whole company (or larger?) of well-equipped Russian troops (Rosgvardia maybe? or just wet standard uniform?) dumped their weapons (including a bunch of AK-12s), armor and loot and swam a small river in retreat:

 

Local collapse, excellent.  So looks like most or all of a company dropped everything so they could flee across a river.  Makes one wonder what they were running from?  -- I am guessing well armed, angry UA force.  They even threw away their personal weapons, body armor, everything.  I hope we see more of this. 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

In what sense?  Ukraine is not surrendering.  It could be decisive if UKR forces continue to batter Russia's army as it has, but I think we are well past the point of Russia achieving anything remotely decisive.

I think Aragorn is warning us all not to count our chickens before they are hatched, which is an american phrase for 'hubris'.  There is a lot of stolen territory in the south that UKR needs to liberate, but Russians are still strong down there. 

I still hope for Russians in the south pushing more troops into places they can be more easily destroyed, thinking they are advancing but are actually working themselves into traps.  Just me wishing, though.  If the russians are beat up enough then UA, once receiving the newly trained units and new (& used) equipment from the outside, can push the depleted russians back beyond the Feb22 boundaries.

But another historic day for the Ukraine's fight for freedom!  Kyiv region recovered, big Russian loses.

[Aragorn2002]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

In what sense?  Ukraine is not surrendering.  It could be decisive if UKR forces continue to batter Russia's army as it has, but I think we are well past the point of Russia achieving anything remotely decisive.

Well, if the Southern Russian army can move North, the Ukrainian units fighting at the Eastern border have to retreat, or they will be cut off. That's clearly the Russian intention now. If the (mostly elite) Ukrainian units can't retreat in time, the Ukrainian army will be in dire straits.  And if they retreat in time they have to evacuate a large area, with well prepared positions. Could become the same race to the Dnjepr the Germans had to make in 1943. And lost.

[Haiduk]

Somewhere on the East. Destroyed/abandoned Russian vehicles.

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, akd said:

Looks like a whole company (or larger?) of well-equipped Russian troops (Rosgvardia maybe? or just wet standard uniform?) dumped their weapons (including a bunch of AK-12s), armor and loot and swam a small river in retreat:

 

I wonder how many of them drowned? I am guessing that water is beyond cold, the kind of cold where your muscles just stop working.

Edited April 2, 2022 by dan/california
dropped a word

[akd]

Initial reports only, so treat with caution, but I’ve already seen multiple images of dead civilians with hands tied from Bucha:

 

[Ultradave]

15 minutes ago, Splinty said:

For sure! But considering how much all the stuff they made us carry around weighed , "light" is just a name. lol

I hear you there. 

Dave

[Thomm]

Quote

I was poking around the Combat Mission Discord Server and happened across a very curious link to a CM Professional related website that lists "Combat Mission: Professional Edition Ukraine Academic Campaign".

Near Peer Simulations

Anyone know what this is all about? 

Bull

The above was posted by Lt Bull in the General Forum.

I thought it was worth reposting here!

Does anybody have more info or do we have to wait for the 12,5 days that the countdown shows?

Or are we seeing an April fool's joke?

Best regards
Thomm

 

Edited April 2, 2022 by Thomm

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Somewhere on the East. Destroyed/abandoned Russian vehciles.

 

yet another destroyed Russian mech platoon.  And once again a lot of good gear lost.  Plus pile of dead soldiers.  Should've taken the surrender money while they still had time.  How can Russia continue to take such losses and still have offensive capabilities??

[sross112]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

The events in Ukraine are going to add some more fuel to the fire regarding the highly controversial reorganization of the US Marine Corps. The current commandant has eliminated all tanks, reduced artillery, helicopters and fixed wing assets to focus on guided missiles, drones, long range anti-ship missiles batteries and long-range unmanned surface vessels that has sensors and weapons that allow for pinpoint bombardment. They are also buying unmanned boats loaded with Kamikaze drones.

The reason for the re-org is the likely adversary China is a Pacific oriented theater that involves vast distances and the need for light highly deployable forces. Many of the potential hot spots are small atolls and shoals. Tanks are too cumbersome and heavy to land on these atolls and the risk of losing them to handheld anti-tank weapons is too great is the argument.

Artillery is also limited by the fact many of the tiny islands are so small they can't be used from a safe distance away from enemy fire and may not be able to use indirect fire at close range. While not totally useless its argued that tanks and artillery "are of less value than the things we need the most" and with a limited budget choices have to be made.   
This has drawn the ire of just about every past commandant and they have been engaging in a PR campaign to slow or stop the re-org and are now lobbying congress. The argument here is the force structure is too tailored for a potential fight with China and would be ineffective elsewhere. There have been arguments that eliminating tanks makes the new force structure vulnerable in a fight with a armored heavy opponent.

The events in Ukraine where light infantry armed with guided missiles are decimating tanks and IFV's, pretty much invalidates the infantry is vulnerable to armored formations, even taking into account the Russians lack of finesse.

The argument that the new force structure would not be useful in a theater like Europe is also looking sketchy. A force structure like the new Marine Corps one would be highly effective in the southern coastal region of Ukraine. Anti-ship missile batteries would make any sort of Russian amphibious invasion or ship resupply of land force a very risky proposition. Long range unmanned surface vessels with precision guns and guided missiles and drones would also be very effective.

Norway another region the marines currently train in would be another region where the new force structure would be very effective as would Sweden and Finland if it ever came down to it.

I still believe tanks are highly effective when properly used, but they are expensive to acquire, expensive to maintain and they will definitely need APS and more APS systems need to be developed. All of this will require money, lots of it and they are not easily deployable as their weight is already approaching the limits of practicality and adding on more stuff to protect them will only add to the weight problem.

In the past few decades global populations have been trending away from rural areas into urban areas. Over 90% of global commerce moves on the sea, so it follows that urban areas located near the water is where the centers of government and economic power lie.

A light infantry centric force with precision weapons, drones, unmanned surface vessels and anti-ship missiles make a lot of sense. He may be highly controversial but General Berger is beginning to look very visionary.

 

When I first heard of the Marines giving up the armor my reaction was the same: WTH? Then reading on the "littoral" brigade concept it makes sense. The other thing I read was the intent to get more in line with their traditional mission instead of being a heavy assault force like they've been used for awhile now. There was also an article awhile back talking about how the SEALs are changing it up as well moving back toward their traditional maritime missions. Really I think this does show that the Navy and Marines are looking toward the future and what their primary mission will be with the primary threat they need to contest. 

Logistically, especially after this conflict and considering that the mission of the Marines was to establish beachheads and ports for the heavies to follow, instead of 1 60 ton tank you get 60 tons of SMAWs/NLAWs/Javelins/drones, etc. That isn't even accounting for the additional space freed up by the support elements for the 60 ton tank. When considering the mission I reckon it is a sensible transition. Unless they are tasked with assaulting Fallujah again instead of maritime ops, in which case everyone will look back and think Berger failed. If they bottle up the South China Sea and wreck havoc then everyone will look back and think Berger was a visionary genius ahead of his time. History will be the judge.

[sross112]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

Another one for the farmers...

 

 

Got a good laugh out of this. If you watch about the 6 second mark you see a guy stick his head out of the driver's hatch. I instantly thought Ivan just woke up from his vodka induced coma, looked out the hatch and thought "Oh crap!" and then dropped back in to wake up the rest of the crew. 

It could happen! The farmers are so used to abandoned vehicles that they don't even check for crew before towing them away!

[sburke]

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, if the Southern Russian army can move North, the Ukrainian units fighting at the Eastern border have to retreat, or they will be cut off. That's clearly the Russian intention now. If the (mostly elite) Ukrainian units can't retreat in time, the Ukrainian army will be in dire straits.  And if they retreat in time they have to evacuate a large area, with well prepared positions. Could become the same race to the Dnjepr the Germans had to make in 1943. And lost.

well prepared positions?  You realize Izium to Kherson is over 300 miles of front in hostile territory?  Comparing the Russian advance to the Dnieper in 1944 to the current situation is so flawed an analogy I don't even know where to start.

[danfrodo]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

Initial reports only, so treat with caution, but I’ve already seen multiple images of dead civilians with hands tied from Bucha:

 

I guess that settles the whole "is Kraze out of line" question.  I can't criticize anyone for hating people who come to their country to kill and enslave them.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, sross112 said:

Got a good laugh out of this. If you watch about the 6 second mark you see a guy stick his head out of the driver's hatch. I instantly thought Ivan just woke up from his vodka induced coma, looked out the hatch and thought "Oh crap!" and then dropped back in to wake up the rest of the crew. 

It could happen! The farmers are so used to abandoned vehicles that they don't even check for crew before towing them away!

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Thomm said:

The above was posted by Lt Bull in the General Forum.

I thought it was worth reposting here!

Does anybody have more info or do we have to wait for the 12,5 days that the countdown shows?

Or are we seeing an April fool's joke?

Best regards
Thomm

 

April Fools joke, I'm sure.  We've not made anything specific for this conflict and I am not aware of any of our Pro customers doing so either.  Though they do have access to all of CMBS' forces.

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

well prepared positions?  You realize Izium to Kherson is over 300 miles of front in hostile territory?  Comparing the Russian advance to the Dnieper in 1944 to the current situation is so flawed an analogy I don't even know where to start.

Well prepared positions in and around the towns and cities, especially those that have been in the middle of the fighting since the fighting started. I'm not talking about an entire continuous frontline. And a retreat to the Dnjepr isn't as impossible as you make it sound, when the Russians can manage to break through in the South.

Edited April 2, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well prepared positions in and around the towns and cities, especially those that have been in the middle of the fighting since a long time. I'm not talking about an entire frontline. And a retreat to the Dnjepr isn't as impossible as you make it sound, when the Russians can manage to break through in the South.

I think you are giving the Russian army far too much credit considering what it was able to accomplish when it was in a lot better shape and had some amount of tactical surprise... and hadn't been massacring Ukrainians till they were white hot with rage against Russia.  Russia even if it could force the line back hasn't the troops to hold it and resupply.  It is as unrealistic as any of the previous 8 plans Russia has had.

Holding a position in a city perforce means you have to take it first.

Edited April 2, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

Initial reports only, so treat with caution, but I’ve already seen multiple images of dead civilians with hands tied from Bucha:

When the war started I had hoped that Russia's traditional brutality and inhumanity would be toned down because of the special connection to Ukrainians.  Sadly, this is not the case.

There seems to be four different types of atrocities being committed:

• deliberate or indifferent targeting of civilian infrastructure (artillery, airpower, tank fire, etc.)
• murdering for personal gain (rape, plunder, etc)
• murdering for retribution (standard side effect of civilian resistance)
• panic killing (another side effect of civilian resistance)

All of which are warcrimes.  All of which are further indication of how far Russia has to go before it earns a place at the table of the civilized world.

Steve

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery destroyed radar 9S36M of Buk M3 complex in Novyi Bykiv area, Chernihiv oblast.

...And Russian crewman looted kids water gun... Most of their soldiers came to army from deep assholes, that even toys are valuable spoils for them

Edited April 2, 2022 by Haiduk