How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, womble said:

The Russians are now making the "point" that the fuel facility was a civilian asset with no connection to the military. As if it makes a difference.

Yeah, just like the entire city or Mariupol was civilians' homes w no connection to the military.  Putin sure has some chutzpah.

[Haiduk]

Commander of Azov speaks on behalf of all defenders of Mariupol

Translation:

... It is quite difficult, taking into account that the balance of forces and means is just disheartening. We understand that in the next couple of days it will be even more difficult for us. But our soldiers do not give up and will fight to the last. We are military, we are ready to die for this country, we are ready to fight for it, and this is our duty and our obligation. We have people sometimes fainting from hunger. We eat once a day, our provisions are also running out, just like ammunition. We try to save its, even our seriously wounded have to boil technical water so that they can drink it. I managed to wash myself since 35 days maybe three times before a full blocade. We are ready to kill and rampage without sparing ourselves. When people, after the third or fourth wound, pick up a rifle, grit their teeth in pain and go further into battle, I don’t think these people are afraid of something.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

Does the chance of a rebellion in Belarus go up as all the Russian forces deploy elsewhere? i realize I am a broken record on this, but bringing down Lukshenko, and essentially flipping Belarus to the Ukrainian side is the single cheapest and most effective way to end this war. And it would be absolutely unspinnable for Putin.

 

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

 

As Belarusian rail lines break down and trains transporting Russian military equipment into Ukraine grind to a halt, the government of strongman Alexander Lukashenko is making a risky move.  It is airing confessions of transport workers involved in the so-called “rail war”, who are admitting to damaging equipment and infrastructure and causing delays.  On the one hand, the accounts may strike fear into the hearts of those Belarusians who are opposed to the war, to Mr Lukashenko’s tyrannical regime, and to his close relationship with Russian president Vladimir Putin.  But on the other hand, the array of dozens of statements from ordinary trackmen and line workers, rail hands and IT specialists, conductors and engineers showed the depth and breadth of opposition in Belarus to Russia’s war, as well as towards Mr Lukashenko.

 

Belarus at breaking point: How Putin’s war threatens Lukashenko’s fragile grip on power (msn.com)

 

[sburke]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Does the chance of a rebellion in Belarus go up as all the Russian forces deploy elsewhere? i realize I am a broken record on this, but bringing down Lukshenko, and essentially flipping Belarus to the Ukrainian side is the single cheapest and most effective way to end this war. And it would be absolutely unspinnable for Putin.

 

 

I expect that may be a longer-term knock-on effect.  Russia's economic turmoil will have a downstream effect on Belarus.  on the other hand, Belarus has significant trade agreements with the Baltic states and others.    Lukashenko obviously knows he is not in a good position and the choice not to invade Ukraine was more than likely a recognition that while Putin might have needed him to do it, the cost was more than the cost of refusing Putin.  That should have told Putin something if he could get his head out of his posterior cavity.

[Lethaface]

19 minutes ago, sburke said:

Some analysis of the state of Russian opposition (almost none anymore) those who oppose have either been silenced, fled Russia or decided it is just easier to go along.  Interestingly unlike popular support for invading Crimea, current support is much more apathetic

Now, while the government has tried to popularize the letter “Z” as an endorsement of the war, Mr. Shalygin said it’s rare to see a car sporting it; the symbol is mainly popping up on public transit and government-sponsored billboards. The “Z” first appeared painted on Russian military vehicles taking part in the Ukraine invasion.

“Enthusiasm — I don’t see it,” said Sergei Belanovsky, a prominent Russian sociologist. “What I rather see is apathy.”

Indeed, while the Levada poll found 81 percent of Russians supporting the war, it also found that 35 percent of Russians said they paid “practically no attention” to it — indicating that a significant number reflexively backed the war without having much interest in it. The Kremlin appears keen to keep it that way, continuing to insist that the conflict must be called a “special military operation” rather than a “war” or an “invasion.”

 

 

Russian media on the other hand has gone bonkers.

On Friday, the program schedule for the Kremlin-controlled Channel 1 listed 15 hours of news-related content, compared with five hours on the Friday before the invasion. Last month, the channel launched a new program called “Antifake” dedicated to debunking Western “disinformation,” featuring a host best known for a show about funny animal videos

Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion (msn.com)

 

I don't get the focus on polls performed with unknown methodology, in an unfree state about an imaginary subject (there is no 'special operation', it's called war).

Even in peacetime in free countries polls are often problematic. No control questions, non-representative samples, insinuating methods of interview, unclear questioning/interpretations, etc.

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, sburke said:

I expect that may be a longer-term knock-on effect.  Russia's economic turmoil will have a downstream effect on Belarus.  on the other hand, Belarus has significant trade agreements with the Baltic states and others.    Lukashenko obviously knows he is not in a good position and the choice not to invade Ukraine was more than likely a recognition that while Putin might have needed him to do it, the cost was more than the cost of refusing Putin.  That should have told Putin something if he could get his head out of his posterior cavity.

If Belarus goes the way of Ukraine, Russia is really screwed.  Short term not as much since Russia is withdrawing from areas of Ukraine that can only be supported by Belorussian bases.  But long term?  Ouch.

Steve

[sburke]

7 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

I don't get the focus on polls performed with unknown methodology, in an unfree state about an imaginary subject (there is no 'special operation', it's called war).

Even in peacetime in free countries polls are often problematic. No control questions, non-representative samples, insinuating methods of interview, unclear questioning/interpretations, etc.

Agreed, but there is quite a bit more in that article than that poll.  Also, despite a response to you earlier I think saying that the poll was anonymous, there is no such thing. They can scrub the data afterwards, but when the poll is done they very much know who said what.   To your point that  invalidates (mostly) the poll but you can still read between the lines a bit.

My former employer had a poll on women in the workplace.  They scrubbed that data and then had the folks in charge of that initiative review it.  My boss was once of those and even in looking at the "anonymous' responses she identified an individual in my team giving a response that was shall we say, a bit of a stab in the back.

Edited April 1, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

Putin has sent a very clear message to the world "I cannot be trusted and my only goal is complete domination of everything possible".  He's also been sent a very clear message back from Ukraine and the world "I am a losing proposition and if you are tied to me you will sink also"

So it'll be interesting what his allies, like Belarus, choose to do going forward.

[danfrodo]

I'm with Lethaface on polls in Russia.  They know they are being watched and only a fool would tell the truth to some unknown pollster.

[c3k]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Zelensky announces two of Ukraine's generals dismissed for reasons of treason.  I've been expecting this sort of thing, but not so late in the war:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3256034-zelensky-two-ukrainian-generals-dismissed-for-being-traitors/

Steve

"Traitor" is a fraught word when applying it to a military officer in time of war.

Being dismissed is an odd punishment: I'd think execution would be in the cards...

Of course, in a country like Ukraine, these men and their families are now going to have to flee. Is that really what Zelensky wants?

Again...odd to just dismiss.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

Agreed, but there is quite a bit more in that article than that poll.  Also, despite a response to you earlier I think saying that the poll was anonymous, there is no such thing. They can scrub the data afterwards, but when the poll is done they very much know who said what.   To your point that  invalidates (mostly) the poll but you can still read between the lines a bit.

My former employer had a poll on women in the workplace.  They scrubbed that data and then had the folks in charge of that initiative review it.  My boss was once of those and even in looking at the "anonymous' responses she identified an individual in my team giving a response that was shall we say, a bit of a stab in the back.

Yeah my response was more to the recurrence of posts about polls of Russian support for the 'special operation'. 
And indeed often anonymous polls aren't that anonymous at all.

[ASL Veteran]

8 minutes ago, c3k said:

"Traitor" is a fraught word when applying it to a military officer in time of war.

Being dismissed is an odd punishment: I'd think execution would be in the cards...

Of course, in a country like Ukraine, these men and their families are now going to have to flee. Is that really what Zelensky wants?

Again...odd to just dismiss.

Nobody executes traitors and spies anymore.  They are too valuable to trade for your spies who get caught in enemy lands

[Armorgunner]

So when is CM: Shooting gallery coming? A realistic game, of the 2022 war in Ukraine. Where the Russian millitary were humiliated, and all used up? Fun to play as Ukrainians, if you like to blow stuff upp (and who doesn´t). But only fun as Russians, if you have a brigade vs a platoon of Ukrainians!

[c3k]

6 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

Nobody executes traitors and spies anymore.  They are too valuable to trade for your spies who get caught in enemy lands

Maybe that's the problem...

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, c3k said:

"Traitor" is a fraught word when applying it to a military officer in time of war.

Being dismissed is an odd punishment: I'd think execution would be in the cards...

Of course, in a country like Ukraine, these men and their families are now going to have to flee. Is that really what Zelensky wants?

Again...odd to just dismiss.

Brigade general SBU Andriy Naumov, the chief of SBU internal security directorate have lost own post as far as in July 2021 due to corruption scandal and dirty intermal withstanding inside SBU. He left Ukraine on 23th of Feb, one day before war began.

Brigade general SBU, chief of SBU in Kherson oblast, Serhiy Kryvoruchko also left territory of Ukraine before invasion. Reportedly he gave to Russians all defense plans of Kherson oblast, which allowed Russians to seize it so quickly. 

So, for now Zelensky can only dismiss them. Prosecution will be after the war. The irony, both were appointed and later promoted to brigade general ranks personally by Zelenskyi. And looks like he did it by advice of Andriy Yermak, the chief of Persident's Ofiice, which many in our contry consider as Kremlin agent of influence. And after the war his political opponents will remind him on this.

  

Edited April 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[Armorgunner]

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

According to UK, 40 % of all destroyed Russain armor is a work of NLAW

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

My previous post was missing something.  I was outlining what it would take for redeploying a force capable of combat.  I agree that the forces being pulled out of the Kiev area probably don't fit that description too well.

What Russia might do is throw stuff together to form BTGs and move them into combat "as is".  This is what has happened in other areas, so I don't think it's unrealistic to think that will happen here.  That further degrades the combat potential of the BTG.

Steve

Sorry I must have read it out of context! Hard to keep up sometimes.

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

Nobody executes traitors and spies anymore.  They are too valuable to trade for your spies who get caught in enemy lands

Unless you are Kim Jong-un in which case you shoot them with an anti-aircraft gun. 

[Armorgunner]

49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

According to UK, 40 % of all destroyed Russain armor is a work of NLAW

I don´t know, how they know that? I´m from Sweden though. And NLAW is a Swedish product, developed by SAAB/Bofors. Even though it´s manufactured in the UK by Thales. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_Light_Anti-tank_Weapon

 

I´m very happy though, that it seems to work very well in combat. And very happy for every Russian tank your boys knock out. That means one less, to threaten us!

 

And the Ukrainian army, has proved it self. To be very effective, so far!!!

Edited April 1, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Isn't the fuze only activated when the shell is fired out of the mortar?

On U.S. mortar rounds, at least the 60mm, there is a bore-riding pin that’s spring loaded to eject (about 30 meters IIRC) after the round leaves the tube to arm the fuse. I’m sure they can be removed with a little work. I know from experience of dropping an illum down the tube and having it start to tick in the tube, that they don’t always work as a safety. I’ve also had the pins bounce off my helmet as they exited the tube that the fuse can arm before the design distance.

Edited April 1, 2022 by Vet 0369

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting.  Countries in Russia's sphere of influence are the ones to watch.  Seems Kazakhstan is setting an active neutral course.  I don't expect them to help the West much, but this position says they also aren't going to be much good for Russia:

https://www.rferl.org/amp/kazakhstan-evade-sanctions-russia/31781750.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Good analysis of why Ukraine should not agree to a cease fire and why Russia is so desperate to get one:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/risks-russian-ceasefire-offer

Steve

[danfrodo]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good analysis of why Ukraine should not agree to a cease fire and why Russia is so desperate to get one:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/risks-russian-ceasefire-offer

Steve

Weird, it's almost as if this ISW guy is saying Putin is a thieving lying serial murderer that can't be trusted.

And hopefully every country will get this message and never ever let Russia normalize w the world until Putin is gone.

[womble]

If anyone is alive to the downsides of a frozen conflict, it'll be the Ukrainians. The cost they're going to have to pay is excruciating, though, and I hope the rest of the world will be suitably grateful and they get the result they need.