How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

The helicopter explanation appears to be the most logical based on the videos.  We know that:

1. At lest two rockets/missiles were fired from what looks to be a single firing position.
2. The firing position is above the ground (first video looked like from ground, but it was a perspective issue)
3. The distance was VERY short
4. The angle was VERY flat

The four alternatives to the helicopter can be rules out:

1. Rockets like the Tochka would be coming at a very steep angle, not flat
2. Ukrainian soldiers might fight like supermen, but they are not.  Therefore, levitating soldiers should be ruled out!
3. A fixed wing aircraft would not be able to launch two rockets/missiles from the same location, a pair of fixed wing aircraft would not fire from the same position as each other
4. I'm not sure a TB2 drone could carry two rockets/missiles of that size, but I don't know enough about the specifics to know this for sure.

Therefore, the helicopter theory does seem to fit the available evidence.

Steve

[Fenris]

Was going to say it looked like multiple dumb rockets fired from something stationary and elevated so yeah might well be a helo. Can't really see the terrain.

Pretty amazing if so.

[dan/california]

Putin might want to quit before the Ukrainians are forced to reveal any bigger surprises. Also does anybody else have an idea of just how badly this bleeps Russian logistics?

 

[Fenris]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The helicopter explanation appears to be the most logical based on the videos.  We know that:

1. At lest two rockets/missiles were fired from what looks to be a single firing position.
2. The firing position is above the ground (first video looked like from ground, but it was a perspective issue)
3. The distance was VERY short
4. The angle was VERY flat

The three alternatives to the helicopter can be rules out:

1. Rockets like the Tochka would be coming at a very steep angle, not flat
2. Ukrainian soldiers might fight like supermen, but they are not.  Therefore, levitating soldiers should be ruled out!
3. A fixed wing aircraft would not be able to launch two rockets/missiles from the same location, a pair of fixed wing aircraft would not fire from the same position as each other
4. I'm not sure a TB2 drone could carry two rockets/missiles of that size, but I don't know enough about the specifics to know this for sure.

Therefore, the helicopter theory does seem to fit the available evidence.

Steve

 

If I were a betting man I'd say it was something farm related.

[Battlefront.com]

Obviously it will be very interesting to see how Russia handles this.  It's a huge deal. 

As far as I can tell Russia ignored the attack on the airport and ammo depot.  There was no easy-to-see direct evidence it was an attack, so that wasn't too hard to do given Ukraine didn't claim credit for it.  This time it's hard to hide the fact that Ukraine has struck back.

I wonder if Ukraine will claim credit for it this time.  As of just now, I haven't seen anything posted yet.

Now Russia's national air defenses are getting humiliated just like everything else.  Let's see... what is our humiliation list looking like?:

• Russian Army?  YUP!
• Russian Airforce?  YUP!
• Russian Navy?  YUP!
• Russian Air Defenses?  YUP!

Quite a list.

Steve

[sburke]

Putin:  "Damn I have to fire another General?!"

What are the odds it was a Russian aircraft that thought it was firing at Ukraine?  We can't rule out incompetence,

Edited April 1, 2022 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

No sooner had I posted... UK's Daily Mail quotes Russian regional governor:

Quote

Ukrainian helicopters have attacked an oil facility inside Russia, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said.

Gladkov said that two of Ukraine's military helicopters struck a fuel storage facility in the Russian city of Belgorod on Friday after crossing the border at low altitude.

The resulting blaze injured two workers, Gladkov added, while some areas in the city, located close to the Ukrainian border, were being evacuated. 

Ukraine's government is yet to confirm the incident. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10675075/Ukrainian-attack-helicopters-strike-oil-facility-INSIDE-Russia.html

And Newsweek might want to update their opinion that the ammo depot was most likely due to "Human error":

https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-ukraine-strike-arms-depot-russia-belgorod-military-town-1693286

Steve

[Fenris]

 

[Fenris]

Another one

 

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Another one

 

I wonder what that Russian woman is saying.  Could it be something like "Well, I am glad to see our military operation is going so well!"?

OK, so obviously it was a helicopter attack.  Two helicopters, several volleys, then going home.

Steve

[kraze]

12 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Saw last night and today that poll shows 83% of russians support war against ukraine.  This is an absurd thing to report as if it's true.  In a country where even calling it a 'war' gets you 15 years in prison, who's gonna tell the poll they oppose it?  It'd be like looking at popularity polls of kim jong un in N Korea.  "new poll shows 100% popular support for N Korean leader, deeply contradicting what outside experts were saying"

 

83% russians supporting the war is genuine. The support grew considerably since the start of the war.

In Russia people aren't arrested for saying stuff in anonymous polls.

Again you keep misunderstanding how dictatorships work:

In democracies governments do what people want.

In dictatorships governments do what people want literally.

No government can exist without the support of the population, especially dictatorship. Dictatorship stands on an absolute support of the people otherwise it will be quickly overthrown. Hence all those 70-80% results you see are very real and perfectly normal. A dictator has to constantly make his people happy* - hence why losing this war and making people unhappy means the death of putin and he knows it.

*your definition of happiness may differ from the kind of people who choose to give an absolute power to a single guy.

Edited April 1, 2022 by kraze

[Battlefront.com]

S-8 Rockets apparently at least part of the attack:

 

[kraze]

8 hours ago, Commanderski said:

Here's a chart that may help understand the dosage.

So according to this - even if we take the aforementioned 'minimum' 40 mSv per hour as the maximum dosage a Russian soldier gets in Red Forest, especially if dug in, and they were digging in and staying there for 30 days - the math shows that they had a very dangerous level of exposure and ARS seems to be a very real thing.

Good.

Edited April 1, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

Didn't @The_Captsay something right after that ship was hit about UKR hitting Russia's SLOC?  Seems they figured it was time to really ruin Putin's day by hitting the fuel and maybe the ammo marked for the Plan F drive.  Wait till those poor sods pulling out from around Kiev find out their fuel is getting hit before they can even get back to Belarus.  Isn't it April 1st in Ukraine now?

Edited April 1, 2022 by sburke

[Fenris]

Does UKR still have tochka ballistic missiles (or something similar) that could be used for this kind of thing as well?

[Machor]

39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

wonder what that Russian woman is saying.  Could it be something like "Well, I am glad to see our military operation is going so well!"?

"The poor dogs they all ran away (I'm pretty sure she's referring to the dogs running in the video). The first one fired away, then the second. There are many of them there. Here, the second one flies."

[kraze]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder what that Russian woman is saying.  Could it be something like "Well, I am glad to see our military operation is going so well!"?

OK, so obviously it was a helicopter attack.  Two helicopters, several volleys, then going home.

Steve

Nvm already translated above

Edited April 1, 2022 by kraze

[sburke]

6 hours ago, akd said:

Waiting:

Russian dogs run away - Ukrainian dogs wait in ambush?  

[Combatintman]

58 minutes ago, sburke said:

Didn't @The_Captsay something right after that ship was hit about UKR hitting Russia's SLOC?  Seems they figured it was time to really ruin Putin's day by hitting the fuel and maybe the ammo marked for the Plan F drive.  Wait till those poor sods pulling out from around Kiev find out their fuel is getting hit before they can even get back to Belarus.  Isn't it April 1st in Ukraine now?

I doubt that whatever was in those storage tanks would have anything to do with supplying any Russian military operations.  To me it is more about sending a message that Ukraine is willing and capable of reaching out and touching Russia which has the fringe benefits of forcing Russia to commit more ground based air defence and CAP assets in its border regions and a whole bunch of fuel tanks on fire is not something that can be readily hidden from the good (or otherwise) citizens of Belgorod.

[kraze]

6 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

I doubt that whatever was in those storage tanks would have anything to do with supplying any Russian military operations.  To me it is more about sending a message that Ukraine is willing and capable of reaching out and touching Russia which has the fringe benefits of forcing Russia to commit more ground based air defence and CAP assets in its border regions and a whole bunch of fuel tanks on fire is not something that can be readily hidden from the good (or otherwise) citizens of Belgorod.

Belgorod is one of the key staging grounds (and supply routes) for an invasion. You can be absolutely sure that's an invasion fuel burning.

[Combatintman]

8 minutes ago, kraze said:

Belgorod is one of the key staging grounds (and supply routes) for an invasion. You can be absolutely sure that's an invasion fuel burning.

No I can't or I wouldn't have said so ... do you know the facility, do you know what is in those storage tanks?  Do you know whether it is possible to cross-deck fuel (if indeed that is what is stored there) into military fuel tankers from that storage facility.  Are the contents of that storage facility compatible with Russian military vehicles.  Do you know the supply levels within those storage tanks at the time of the strike?  Have you seen military vehicles at the facility recently or ever?

If the answers to the above are mostly negative then nobody can be sure and as I've already stated, I'm leaning to the assessment that it is not "invasion fuel" burning.

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60945122

It seems Kraze is entirely correct when he states that the fast majority of the Russians support Putin's war, people.

 

Edited April 1, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/1-april-ukrainian-army-liberated-ivankiv-in-kyiv-region

Wow, this means full encirclement for the Russian forces remain west of Kiev.

We did see Russians pull out what they could last couple of days (VDV especially) but all engaged units and thousands more must remain. 

[DesertFox]

This warms my heart!

 

 

[TheVulture]

Ukrainian army are now in Ivankiv, where the P-02 highway NW form Kyiv crosses the Teteriv river. So Russia appears to be completely abandoning the Kyiv axis now, not just trying to hold on with reduced forces but stop offensive action.

Bad news for any Russians who hadn't made it back past that river line yet - they're rather cut off now. No indication so of how many (if any) are now stranded.

(On the map, the red truck icons are from Russia withdrawing about 24 hours ago, so there's a lot here that's out of date).

(EDIT: I see The_MonkeyKing beat me to it just above).

Edited April 1, 2022 by TheVulture