How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Markus86]

 

 

Translation from the source: 

Heroes of the Airborne Forces and the Army of Russia!!!
Participants of the special military operation were awarded state medals. awards

Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation
Colonel-General Alexander Fomin in the branch of the 3rd Central Military Clinical Hospital named after A.A. Vishnevsky of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation presented state awards to wounded Russian servicemen who distinguished themselves during a special military operation. Nine Orders of Courage were awarded.

At the Main Military Clinical Hospital named after N. N. Burdenko, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, awarded eight servicemen of the department - two medals "For Courage" and six orders of "Courage".

---------

Strange russian PR work. Showing some unhappy young men, missing arms and legs. I wouldn't feel motivated. 

[Panserjeger]

5 hours ago, Splinty said:

My own US Army mechanized infantry battalion did that. I was in Alpha Company and all our tracks had names that began with A. My Bradley was called Annihilator.

Playing the part as REDFOR in Battle Griffin (1999 i think?)

 

 

[kraze]

43 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Strange russian PR work. Showing some unhappy young men, missing arms and legs. I wouldn't feel motivated. 

Yep, neither you, nor any other people in this thread. But you don't understand the mentality of uncivilized.

In late (almost dead) USSR there was a "satirical" movie called "to kill a dragon". Characters in it were doing absolutely wild, appalling things incl. suffering the terrible consequences of their horrible actions themselves - just to get that medal from the hands of the Dragon himself. And that alone made their ruined lives complete.

Ironically the director and most of the actors in that movie ended up being exactly like their characters.

Edited March 27, 2022 by kraze

[Gpig]

found the location on Google maps, where this youtube vid was filmed by drone (appears to show Russian troops evacuating a wounded soldier on the back of that IFV)*

*the first 22 seconds of video is filmed at an unknown location. The remaining video overlooks an area that you can see on google maps

50.6126261409432, 30.295619319789765

Youtube vid, drone view

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Gpig

[CAZmaj]

https://twitter.com/AosmanZeynep/status/1507784417481216015?s=20&t=RSTa7dqQGIj9JsAgmjQN-g

Edited March 27, 2022 by CAZmaj

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, Cogust said:

What are separatists doing in Sumy, isn't that awfully far away from Donbas? I think the red tape is not exclusive to LPR/DPR-troop, I think that some Russians units use them as well.

From LDPR conscripts formed new units - "rifle regiments". This is just footmen, w/o combat vehicles. Russians send them either like first wave canon fodder for assault actions in Rubizhne, Siverodonetsk or like auxiliary troops to secure roads and as garrisons of small towns. Russians have a lack of own troops for this purpose. LDPR conscripts already was captured in Mykolaiv oblast and near Kharkiv. Now Symy oblast too. Pay attetion on their helmets, if you see Soviet SSh-68 - this is LDPR conscript. Even separs "cadre" brigades already mostly use modern Russian helmets. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke

”Only” a captain, but acting commander of a motor rifle battalion at time of death, so I think worth cataloguing.  Unit not identified.  Captain Timur Suleymanov:

 

@sburke

The screen says he lived and served in Yekaterinburg. This single combat unit in this city, among others, is 228th motor-rifle regiment (BTR-82A) of 90th Guard tank division. The screen also says that he was killed in BTR, when it blew up on AT-mine. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[holoween]

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So we are not talking about EW, or at least not just EW.  We are talking about an ISR superiority bubble, that if collapses results in a quick ignoble death.  A Sense bubble included data and information superiority.  If everyone has these then

1) surprise is pretty much dead because we are talking decentralized bubbles not a singular big brain one can hit.  You can collapse a Local Bubble but what about the rest?  You might even degrade the operational systems but any given maneuver unit has enough integral capability to create their own bubbles.

2) You have to re-think manoeuvre warfare from the ground up.  The whole thing is predicated on avoiding strength and hitting vulnerabilities, which is pretty hard if an opponent can see you coming miles off.  Further a local Sense bubble collapse also sends a clear signal of effort, which one can also not hide.

3) Mass might be suicidal.  As in Airland battle concentration leading to death does not necessarily flow from air superiority.  By seeing high mass concentration from well back, or even at it is forming means interdiction can come from many vectors.  This plus PGM means NLOS over the horizon massed fires before you even make contact can destroy concentrations of mass.  This indicated land warfare might start to resemble naval warfare but distributed.

And I think this only scratches the surfaces as that Sense bubble has to include a logistics tail or security is impossible.  Honestly I am going to need a bit of time to digest this all, it was Hapless’ mention of snow globes that clicked it. 

I think youre making an assumption without realizing. You assume its impossible to defend against fires. To go with your comparison to naval war why hasnt the surface fleet been made obsolete even though long range anti ship missile exist and why do they still move as formations rather than far dispersed over the entire ocean? Simply put because their ability to shoot down incoming munitions especially with layered mutually supporting defensive fires.

1

Surprise on the strategic level has been dead since before ww1 yet it continues to happen even if its just because decision makers dont want to see it.

On the operational level it equally should be dead but it continues to not be because while you can track where a formation is you cant know what its intentions are (you can make assumtions but they can be wrong) and that is when youre not being fed wrong informations via decoys etc.

and on the tactical level its not even an argument. Even in afghanistan and iraq ambushes kept happening while almost perfect drone cover was available. And thats against troops that arent trained to expect and equipped to deal with constant themal imaging hangin above looking for them.

3

Id argue the exact opposite. Mass will become far more important. A dispersed infantry unit is easy pickings for weapons like switchblade. Sure you might need one weapon per soldier but thats not too difficult. If youre talking about a platoon of ifvs with aps that can cover each other the effort required to take them out increases massively. Its also easyer to defend this with air defense to reduce an oponents recon asstes effectiveness.

2

Manouver warfare is even more important than before. Because with both sides being able to see where the oponent is roughly the one that is able to move faster can create strength vs weakness engagements or avoid being put into them on the defense.

11 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Terrain means a lot less, rethink of key terrain and vital ground

Denial and control as transient concepts, not take and hold.

Attritional based on a competition of overwhelming Shield capability

Very long engagement ranges, over the horizon

Power projection and shaping means something quite different, which calls into question decisive land outcomes.

Positioning, not manoeuvre.

These are just for a start. 

Again id say the exact opposite is true at least for terrain. Anyone moving in the open better have serious defensive capabilities or they will get quickly eliminated because they will be seen. Get into a city and suddenly not being seen from drones becomes trivial. For forests the drones have to come a whole lot closer and with proper camo it might still be impossible to detect stationary targets.

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, Machor said:

This tank has two 'names': 'Rita' and 'The Beaver'. Could also mean 'Rita the Beaver'

Second word is "Бабёр", this is in real should have be written correctly as "бобёр" (beaver), but this is also grammar mistake in this time intentional. In the middle of 2000th among Russian-speaking young men was popular so-called "crud-style" language, with intentional grammar mistakes in the words. 

Ukrainian armor also often have own names, but without any system according to unint number ot some else.

[__Yossarian0815[jby]]

8 hours ago, OldSarge said:

...soldiers fighting for their homes, in the land of their ancestors...

 

History is full of soldiers fighting for the lands of their ancestors on their home turf...and losing anyway.

i.e all the native peoples of Americas, practically all of Africa, practically all of the meditaranean basin was conquered by the Romans, etc. etc.

 

[Ultradave]

8 hours ago, danfrodo said:

4.  West is talking very tough this week.  Letting Putin know there's red lines that will trigger escalation but not telling him exactly what those are -- I want them to trigger us, yeah, go ahead.  Calling specifically for his removal from office.  I like this.

 

This is exactly what my wife and I have been saying. We seem to think, and Putin reinforces, that there are red lines we (being NATO/US/EU) cannot cross, but that it's about time there were some red lines laid down to Putin. Past time, IMO.

Dave

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, CAZmaj said:

https://twitter.com/AosmanZeynep/status/1507784417481216015?s=20&t=RSTa7dqQGIj9JsAgmjQN-g

One quote from that that stood out to me:

That means that while old engineers were dying and retiring, too few capable youngsters came to learn from them. So many competences of old engineers died with them. As then deputy minister of defense Makarov pointed out Russia lost Soviet technologies of producing a tank barrel

 

The whole thread makes it sound like a late 1930's Japan scenario.  The US thought it was fighting an economic battle with Japan.  Japan looked at the same situation and saw an existential economic threat,  and so turned to a military solution as its only hope to change its predicament before it was too late.

 

Hence Pearl Harbour.

 

The West figured it was punishing Russia economically after Crimea, Donbass (and Georgia etc. ). And much of the talk in the Western press is about how little effect sanctions have,  and the ways in which they are circumvented to continue to trade with Russia. This twitter thread on the other hand portrays it as having a serious effect on Russia's military, and put them in a "do nothing and die slowly,  or try and change the game entirely" scenario. But like Japan, by the time they did something it was already too latel

 

I've no idea how credible his analysis of the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy is though. It might all be obviously bollocks to sometime who knows what they are talking about. 

[LongLeftFlank]

13 hours ago, akd said:

Another segment from Vilkhivka:

 

Strewth, the switches between the ground footage and drone footage of the very same firefights is like CM brought to life!  Don't miss these clips.

They also bring this report previously cited by our good @Haiduk vividly to life:

The Kyiv region is a full-fledged Wilderness. Just in one small forest near a small village being contested, I counted Armed Forces, National Guard, Territorial Defense, police, some glorious volunteer units, SOF, SBU, some mysterious unknown special forces guys with strange barrels and just armed muddy guys. 

All these guys are constantly moving, engaging and withdrawing, someone is brought in, someone is taken away, and everyone trying to 'strike it rich' with a weapon and ammunition from enemies or allies. Nobody has  communication and coordinates with no one. The central command, if it even exists, doesn't control anything. Coordination is barely feasible - it isn't worthwhile to deal with someone on joint action, as in a few hours you find another unit in their place.

The forest is under systematic hysterical shelling by the enemy of different intensivity and success level, from which all run away and later gather in new configurations. When the enemy tries to enter the village, our forces eliminate them and armed muddy guys run under fire to collect the weapons, smearing with a blood. Someone grabs Russian helmets, someone takes a shots of enemy corpses, someone writes combat reports. 

Or tank accidently encounters thre enemy BMPs, knocked them out and drove away. Shocked enemy infantry is decimated from three sides by unknown people. Whose tank was it? from where it came and where did it go? no one could answer. 

The single idea, which unites everyone like a cornerstone is TO KILL. 
This is Cossackship. This is the same "wind from Kholodnyi Yar", which hasn't a single center of coordination and supply. Where all these people come from, from where they arm themselves, where they go after, even they do not know.

No military academy in the world teaches how to resist this. Welcome to hell.

Muddy guys, for the win!!!!!!!

Edited March 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[George MC]

16 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

One quote from that that stood out to me:

That means that while old engineers were dying and retiring, too few capable youngsters came to learn from them. So many competences of old engineers died with them. As then deputy minister of defense Makarov pointed out Russia lost Soviet technologies of producing a tank barrel

 

The whole thread makes it sound like a late 1930's Japan scenario.  The US thought it was fighting an economic battle with Japan.  Japan looked at the same situation and saw an existential economic threat,  and so turned to a military solution as its only hope to change its predicament before it was too late.

 

Hence Pearl Harbour.

 

The West figured it was punishing Russia economically after Crimea, Donbass (and Georgia etc. ). And much of the talk in the Western press is about how little effect sanctions have,  and the ways in which they are circumvented to continue to trade with Russia. This twitter thread on the other hand portrays it as having a serious effect on Russia's military, and put them in a "do nothing and die slowly,  or try and change the game entirely" scenario. But like Japan, by the time they did something it was already too latel

 

I've no idea how credible his analysis of the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy is though. It might all be obviously bollocks to sometime who knows what they are talking about. 

Same issue another take on effect of western sanctions  

 

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In the middle of 2000th among Russian-speaking young men was popular so-called "crud-style" language, with intentional grammar mistakes in the words. 

Oh, that's been a thing in the Anglosphere too, since before lolcats...

[Haiduk]

93rd mech. brigade strikes in other place. Except Trostianets liberation in Sumy oblast, other part of this brigade liberated large village Husarivka (1300+ of population) in Kharkiv oblast in 11 km south from occupied Balakliya town. Husarivla was important point and other bridgehead of Russian troops on southern bank of Siverskyi Donets river. This bridgehead was kept by two BTGs. Reportedly UKR troops conducted heavy MLRS strike on Russian forces, during which Russian battalion commander was killed. After attack of Ukr forces, Russians withdrew. Reportedly about 60 vehicles destroyed, damaged and abandoned, losses of the enemy are about 100 men. 

There was BTG based on 2nd tank battalion of 237th tank regiment (T-72B + BMP-2 + 2A65, Belgorod oblast) of 3rd motor-rifle division of 20th CAA Western Military District. 

The second BTG. judging on destroyed BTR-82A, could be based on the battalion of 752nd motor-rifle regiment of the same 3rd MRD - it is only who has BTR-82A.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[Holien]

Just seen this as an enhancement to help students understand the countries in Europe. 

Made me smile.

 

[Haiduk]

Who asked about AGS?

[Kinophile]

@Haiduk 

But to follow up, are AGS used at the same amount still, now, as in CMBS? ie a full platoons worth?

Not having them organic to each platoon fell very clunky (ie. Soviet). Each battle I immediately parcel them out to each platoon anyway. 

These days are they better integrated?

Edited March 27, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk 

But to follow up, are AGS used at the same amount still, now, as in CMBS? ie a full platoons worth?

Not having them organic to each platoon fell very clunky (ie. Soviet). Each battle I immediately parcel them out to each platoon anyway. 

These days are they better integrated?

By field manual AGS platoon can be used in different ways. From massing of fire by whole platoon to sharing of AGS squads or separate crews among companies and platoons. Some units have AGS squads on company level in own fire support platoon

Edited March 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

2S23 Nona-SVK? Gotta catch them all…

[BletchleyGeek]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

I've no idea how credible his analysis of the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy is though. It might all be obviously bollocks to sometime who knows what they are talking about

I think this analysis did have a influence before the Russian Federation made war (Japan never bothered with formalities to China in 1937) without a formal declaration of war and openly invaded Ukraine (and probably in 2014 it had some influence too). Now we're all looking out for the "Pearl Harbour" moment: cyber, chemical or nuclear.

Edited March 27, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Haiduk]

Territorial defense of Sumy oblast captured two new Russian trucks Tornado-U - this is new generation of Ural trucks. Full name is Ural-63704-0010. The truck has armored protection of cabine, engine and fuel tank. Adopted in 2017

 

[akd]

ANNA News now releasing their signature POV/drone videos of apartments being destroyed in Mariupol:

https://t.me/wargonzo/6374

[Haiduk]

Russian strike on UKR Pion battery. Though guided bomb missed, one piece (or trailer?) damaged/destroyed

 

Edited March 27, 2022 by Haiduk