How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[ASL Veteran]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

We need to get a straight answer From the Taiwanese about how badly they don't to be conquered. If they are are convincing in their desire not become a large island gulag, we need to start pumping hardware in their like there is already a war on, the second Ukraine cools off. It will be SEVERAL orders of magnitude cheaper to convince the Chinese they shouldn't even think about trying, than it would be to rebuild the world economy after the fact.

If Taiwan has enough anti-ship missiles and Air Defense systems China couldn't even get troops on the island.  If the navy got involved, it could be a blood bath.  The US won't send any weapons to Taiwan though because it might upset China.  It's been like that for decades IIRC.

[Battlefront.com]

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

My read is that China doesn't want Russia to lose but won't do that much to help Russia win. Their trade with the EU and US is far more important and this debacle creates complications that Xi didn't need. What the PRC will do is be a very friendly neutral to Russia while looking to encourage the non-aligned tendencies of Brazil, India, Mexico, etc. 

Agree with that.

Another point...

Some have concluded that China is seeing this war and for some reason/s think grabbing Taiwan is a better idea than it was last month.  I don't understand why.  They've seen the West move in lockstep to punish Russia even if it causes them discomfort economically.  They've seen the underdogs in the fight wipe the floor with the supposedly superior invader.  They're also seeing what scrambling for another plan mid invasion looks like, including all the practical limitations that cut off theoretical options (e.g. conscription).  China is also no doubt paying close attention to the parts of Russia that no longer have troops keeping a lid on discontent.  Then there's the possibility mounting for some sort of coup or popular uprising for Russia deal with.  And lastly, China is seeing how a force that thought of itself as superior collapsed very suddenly and with great humiliation.

If Chinese leadership is 1/2 as smart as I give them credit for, they last thing they should be thinking is "oh goodie, Taiwan is easy pickings now!".  In fact, they should be even less likely to invade now than before because Russia is not setting a good example.

Steve

[Machor]

10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

No, that should mean "colibri", but it is written with grammar mistake. Typical situation in Russia - level of education is falling lower anf lower. They swarm here "to protect Russian language from oppresion", but they themselves don't know how to write correctly in it.   

@db_zero

@Panserjeger

I think they intended to write 'КАЛИБРЫ' - 'calibers'. The mistake is not with the 'a' but the 'и'. 'Colibri' is a strange name for a tank, to say the least.

What about 'calibers'? It would be in reference to the 'Kalibr - caliber' cruise missile, either because the first strikes of the war were carried out with these missiles, or in the sense that every shot of the main gun is as accurate and destructive as these missiles - it is my understanding that the strikes with these missiles were touted in the early days of the war.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

@Battlefront.com, these are said to be Rosgvardia troops (second half of video from the first day of the war was just made available):

You will note they are well-equipped, but not necessarily well-trained.

Interesting to see that they stopped on the road to deal with an attack that happened BEHIND them.

Steve

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Agree with that.

Another point...

Some have concluded that China is seeing this war and for some reason/s think grabbing Taiwan is a better idea than it was last month.  I don't understand why.  They've seen the West move in lockstep to punish Russia even if it causes them discomfort economically.  They've seen the underdogs in the fight wipe the floor with the supposedly superior invader.  They're also seeing what scrambling for another plan mid invasion looks like, including all the practical limitations that cut off theoretical options (e.g. conscription).  China is also no doubt paying close attention to the parts of Russia that no longer have troops keeping a lid on discontent.  Then there's the possibility mounting for some sort of coup or popular uprising for Russia deal with.  And lastly, China is seeing how a force that thought of itself as superior collapsed very suddenly and with great humiliation.

If Chinese leadership is 1/2 as smart as I give them credit for, they last thing they should be thinking is "oh goodie, Taiwan is easy pickings now!".  In fact, they should be even less likely to invade now than before because Russia is not setting a good example.

Steve

Sure. And as someone pointed out earlier, China has Japan's WWII problem...their fuel travels through a narrow and vulnerable carotid and those nations that have the strength to cut it have evinced an alarmingly powerful demonstration of unity and their willingness to take that kind of action. The PRC's plan for Taiwan was to create an unprecedented and/or complicated situation that would freeze the liberal democracies. Russia just gave those democracies a practice run and a so far quite successful one. Xi will perforce have to pause for quite a while and think through the implications. 

Edited March 27, 2022 by billbindc

[dan/california]

32 minutes ago, ASL Veteran said:

If Taiwan has enough anti-ship missiles and Air Defense systems China couldn't even get troops on the island.  If the navy got involved, it could be a blood bath.  The US won't send any weapons to Taiwan though because it might upset China.  It's been like that for decades IIRC.

My point is that it is less expensive to upset China by arming Taiwan to the teeth, than it is to deal with a complete rupture in the world economy AFTER China attacks Taiwan. There are at least some reports that Xi wanted to follow up Putin's glorious parade in Kyiv with one in Taipei. Putin sticking his #$%^%# in a meat grinder should already have been instructive, but making it ABSOLUTELY clear that taking a swing at Taiwan does nothing but create well fed sharks would be a very good thing. 10,000 Javelins 10,000 Stingers, and a truly ridiculous quantity of heavier air defense, and anti ship missiles would make a nice firm statement.  On a vaguely related note the board needs to start a pool on when Japan goes nuclear, note I didn't say if...

[JonS]

30 minutes ago, Machor said:

'Colibri' is a strange name for a tank, to say the least.

My partner (native speaker) thought it was meant to be either Calibre, or Colibri. Calibre is obvious, but odd. Colibri translates as 'hummingbird', apparently, which would be unusual but kind of a neat name for a tank. In a couple of western militaries I've seen examples of each of the tanks in a squadron/company have a name which starts with the same letter (Medusa/Minerva/Minotaur, etc). Do that Russians do that - it might explain the seemingly odd choice of Colibri? Or Calibre, for that matter.

Edited March 27, 2022 by JonS

[Battlefront.com]

Another view of the Ukrainians torching a stripped T-72:

 

[Splinty]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

My partner (native speaker) thought it was meant to be either Calibre, or Colibri. Calibre is obvious, but odd. Colibri translates as 'hummingbird', apparently, which would be unusual but kind of a neat name for a tank. In a couple o western militaries I've seen examples of each of the tanks in a squadron/company have a name which starts with the same letter (Medusa/Minerva/Minotaur, etc). Do that Russians do that - it might explain the seemingly odd choice of Colibri? or Calibre, for that matter.

My own US Army mechanized infantry battalion did that. I was in Alpha Company and all our tracks had names that began with A. My Bradley was called Annihilator.

[Offshoot]

We've seen videos of tiktok Chechens with beards, so let's compare a Belorusian with a moustache

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another video of captured DLPR forces.  This is supposedly from the Luhansk area, so LPR.  I count about a dozen:

Another group of about 10 in Kharkiv area (lower video) and the captured Ukrainians posted a few pages ago (I can't figure out how to not have it show up):

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Not bothering with the videos, but there were two of SAM launches over Sevastopol. They went straight up.  Odd.

Also, a bunch of videos showing forces departing South Ossetia for Ukraine and one video showing a tank of theirs already in Melitopol.

Steve

[akd]

28 minutes ago, JonS said:

My partner (native speaker) thought it was meant to be either Calibre, or Colibri. Calibre is obvious, but odd. Colibri translates as 'hummingbird', apparently, which would be unusual but kind of a neat name for a tank. In a couple of western militaries I've seen examples of each of the tanks in a squadron/company have a name which starts with the same letter (Medusa/Minerva/Minotaur, etc). Do that Russians do that - it might explain the seemingly odd choice of Colibri? Or Calibre, for that matter.

The other tank pictured with it was “Nevsky” or something like that.

[Offshoot]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not bothering with the videos, but there were two of SAM launches over Sevastopol. They went straight up.  Odd.

 

I think Haiduk posted this video earlier and I believe he said they were aimed at a drone.

[Machor]

42 minutes ago, JonS said:

My partner (native speaker) thought it was meant to be either Calibre, or Colibri. Calibre is obvious, but odd. Colibri translates as 'hummingbird', apparently, which would be unusual but kind of a neat name for a tank. In a couple of western militaries I've seen examples of each of the tanks in a squadron/company have a name which starts with the same letter (Medusa/Minerva/Minotaur, etc). Do that Russians do that - it might explain the seemingly odd choice of Colibri? Or Calibre, for that matter.

 

37 minutes ago, Splinty said:

My own US Army mechanized infantry battalion did that. I was in Alpha Company and all our tracks had names that began with A. My Bradley was called Annihilator.

 

13 minutes ago, akd said:

The other tank pictured with it was “Nevsky” or something like that.

I did some very quick research. I found no mention of alphabetical names in Russian sites, nor anything that would suggest that in pictures that I found. However, the names do get imaginative, so it could indeed be 'Calibres' (as I suggested, referring to the missiles) or 'Hummingbird'. Though most vehicles have slogans written on them, here's a selection with names:

Bottom Right: 'Black Devil'

'The Russian'

'Avalanche'

This tank has two 'names': 'Rita' and 'The Beaver'. Could also mean 'Rita the Beaver'

Edited March 27, 2022 by Machor
Another translation for the last tank

[LongLeftFlank]

"Puta?"  LOL!!!!!!!

Saint Cyril is blushing...

Edited March 27, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Combatintman]

7 hours ago, db_zero said:

I may have posted here years ago about the British work on making a tank invisible. Since that announcement they’ve gone silent…

It was the British who invented chobham armor so maybe the invisible tank is next….

https://science.howstuffworks.com/invisible-tank.htm

My read on British advances in tank invisibility are that they are called defence cuts. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not bothering with the videos, but there were two of SAM launches over Sevastopol. They went straight up.  Odd.

Also, a bunch of videos showing forces departing South Ossetia for Ukraine and one video showing a tank of theirs already in Melitopol.

Steve

After losing that ship without any visible response from the air defense systems they may have the gain on their radars turned up so high it unsafe to be a goose, or a particularly aggressive cloud. Given the competence the Russians have displayed everywhere else I can see them just ripping out an entire layer of filtering on their radar returns. Not because it will work , but because someone can sit in an unpleasant meeting and say they did something. That someone is hoping the next disaster to befall Putin's misbegotten rolling atrocity doesn't involve air defense, and that they can resume the bureaucratic equivalent a hopefully invisible defensive crouch.  Sadly I don't have the plans for an S400 so I can't opine if that would involve literally hot wiring circuit boards, or just futzing with the software.

[Machor]

RE: Drones

This is the first footage of drone vs. drone warfare that I have seen, and may historically be the first released by a major news agency:

"Ukraine war: The drone pilots monitoring Russian troops"

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60878703

 

[Taranis]

5 hours ago, DesertFox said:

AFAIK T-80s are only used in 4th Tank Guards Division, which operates (ed) in the Sumy area and along the highway to Kyiv.

4th Guards Tank Division - Wikipedia

The 4 GTD is the only one which used T-80U and which is equipped fully in T-80 at this level. 423rd GMRR which is part of also had T-80BV

Other units used T-80BV/BVM, they are : (not necessarily fully equipped with and somes are recent "upgrading"

200th MRB

57th GMRB

38th GMRB

64th MRB

69th Covering Brigade

 

Just find that :
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian Ground Forces OOB_ISW CTP_0.pdf
It could be interessing but rather old (2018)

[BletchleyGeek]

12 minutes ago, Machor said:

RE: Drones

This is the first footage of drone vs. drone warfare that I have seen, and may historically be the first released by a major news agency:

"Ukraine war: The drone pilots monitoring Russian troops"

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60878703

 

I totally missed the drone on drone aerial combat. They had an unidentified uav flying over them and then a (rather friendly) German Sheperd comes to check on them...

[The_MonkeyKing]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Not to take anything away from you Finns, but I think your forces are going to find these things don't work as well any more.

Drones can get too close, loiter too easily, check from different angles (including very low ones), and zoom in on suspected areas for visuals clues for there to be much hope of hiding.

The only hope of not getting spotted by a drone is to not have a drone in the area looking for you.  If the enemy has even an inkling that there might be something hidden, it will be found with a drone.

Yes you cannot hide yourself completely if you are a mechanized force. 

The measures I stated will make it:

• harder for the enemy to uncover the exact composition and size of the force
• The battle positions will be found but It will be harder to judge if and by who they are defended
• Enemy recon will take longer so more time for the air defense to remove the UAV thread

[The_MonkeyKing]

Some pretty high quality footage of the Kharkiv counter offensives:
https://streamable.com/8awkt8

[DMS]

7 hours ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Russian T-80 losses seem to be about half of that of the T-72. Is that because the tank is "twice" as good, or because half as many are in use proportionally

VSU has a lot of T-80. Sapienti sat.

[womble]

5 hours ago, Machor said:

'Colibri' is a strange name for a tank, to say the least.

Well, they called Shermans "Ronsons"... Colibri is a brand name for (cigarette) lighters, at least that's where I think I've seen it before. But taking that approach to naming your own tank seems a bit fatalistic, even for Russians.